February 4th, 2020: Betts, Non-Roster Invitees, Urshela, Triple-A Roster, Minor League Coaches, Peraza

Eight days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. I know that's a big non-news day but I don't care. Baseball is coming. As a reminder, my annual Top 30 Prospects List will be posted this Friday, and Friday's regularly scheduled post will run Thursday. It might be a little shorter than usual only because there's not much going on right now, though it will include the annual Not Top 30 Prospects. Anyway, here are today's thoughts.

1. Mookie Betts trade. It hasn't happened yet, but it will soon enough. Trade talks between the Dodgers and Red Sox involving Mookie Betts are reportedly intensifying and it seems like only a matter of time until a deal gets done. Could be a bigger trade involving David Price, could be just Betts. Whatever it is, all indications are the Red Sox will soon trade their best player. I don't think a big market team trading their franchise player is bad for baseball, necessarily, but the reasons are dumb. The Red Sox can absolutely afford to sign Betts to a mammoth $400M contract after the season, but they are choosing not to, so they're going to trade him for future assets and make him sound greedy on the way out the door. That's what teams do (the Yankees too). Blockbuster trades are fun! The reasons behind them can sometimes be really dumb though. As for the Yankees, a Betts trade would impact them to some degree. From best to worst, I'd rank the possible outcomes like so:

1. Betts traded to the Padres (rumored, but unlikely)
2. Betts traded to the Dodgers
3. Red Sox keep Betts 

Mookie is outrageously good. Every time I see the guy make an out, I feel like the pitcher got lucky. His hand-eye coordination is incredible and his bat is so quick. It feels like he can get to anything and drive it with authority. Then there's the defense and baserunning as well. Betts is awesome and the Yankees will play 19 games against the Red Sox this season, including 13 games after the All-Star break, when the AL East race could be tight. Trade Mookie to a National League team and that's 19 times the Yankees will not have to see him. That's great. (For what it's worth, Betts averaged 80 plate appearances a year against the Yankees the last five seasons. That's a lot!) There's a chance the Yankees will see the Dodgers in the World Series and have to face Betts then, but that is hardly set in stone. I'd trade not playing 19 games against him during the regular season for possibly having to face him in the World Series eight days a week. The Padres? They're on the rise because they have a deep farm system and guys like Manny Machado and Tommy Pham, but, even with Betts, I don't see them as a bona fide World Series contenders in 2020. Mookie staying with the Red Sox means the Yankees will definitely see him this season. Mookie going to the Dodgers means the Yankees might see him in the World Series. Mookie going to the Padres means it is extremely unlikely the Yankees will see him this year. That's the best possible outcome, Betts being traded to a non-contender in the National League, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. He'll go to the Dodgers, they'll be great again, and maybe the Yankees see him in the World Series down the road. The Red Sox are going to get some young players in return -- outfielder Alex Verdugo, who hit .294/.342/.475 (114 wRC+) before an oblique strain ended his season in August, is expected to be the headliner -- and maybe those guys will give the Yankees problems down the road. As big a problem as Betts? Almost certainly not. I am very much looking forward to the Red Sox trading their best player since peak Pedro Martinez. It'll make life that much easier for the Yankees this season. (Hope you're all ready for me to demand the Yankees sign Betts and move him back to second base next offseason. Kidding! ... Or am I?)

2. Non-roster invitees announced. The Yankees finally announced their Spring Training non-roster invitees yesterday. I wrote a post previewing the non-roster invitees a week and a half ago. I predicted 21 non-roster invitees. The Yankees invited 19. Here are the 19:

As a reminder, all 40-man roster players will be in big league camp. Now a few things on the non-roster invitees. One, welcome back David Hale. He did nice work as a long reliever (3.11 ERA and 3.32 FIP) last year before back and knee trouble effectively ended his season in late July. The Yankees helped him add velocity and it paid off. I'm glad he's back. Two, welcome aboard Dan Otero. The veteran sinkerballer struggled with the Indians last year (4.85 ERA and 5.17 FIP) but had a 3.09 ERA (3.50 FIP) with a 61.5% ground ball rate from 2016-18. Not a bad non-roster flier to take. This is technically Otero's second stint with the Yankees. He was with the team for literally one day between waiver claims back in March 2013. Three, welcome aboard Wynston Sawyer. I said I expected the Yankees to sign one more catcher in my non-roster preview and he's it. The 28-year-old hit .260/.333/.409 (91 wRC+) in Triple-A with the Twins last year. I am certain new catching coach Tanner Swanson, who the Yankees hired away from Minnesota, had a say in the signing. He must be a fan. Four, welcome back Kellin Deglan. Second time in two years the Yankees re-signed him and didn't announce it until their non-roster list was released. He figures to spend most of the season with Double-A Trenton again. Five, no Kaleb Cowart? He reportedly signed a minor league deal a few weeks ago. Either the report was wrong, the deal fell through, or Cowart didn't get a non-roster invite. Hmmm. I'm guessing the deal fell apart. Six, no Adam Warren? He signed a minor league deal a few weeks ago too. This one is more understandable than Cowart. Warren is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and he'll be with the rehab group in Spring Training. I thought the non-roster invite would be a token thing for a veteran. Guess not. Seven, I did not expect Acevedo (so bad last year that he was released), Milone (barely played above High-A), or Vizcaino (barely pitched above Low-A) to get a non-roster invite. Good for them. And eight, I am surprised Hoy Jun Park didn't get an invite. He's the most notable omission to me. The 23-year-old hit .272/.363/.370 (120 wRC+) with Double-A Trenton last year and is poised to jump to Triple-A Scranton. Clearly the Yankees believe Holder is more likely to contribute at the MLB level in 2020. That's why he got the invite and Park didn't. Pretty good group of non-roster players this year. Lots of guys who look like potentially useful pieces and two nice prospects in Schmidt and Vizcaino. The Grapefruit League can't get here soon enough.

3. How can he improve? Gio Urshela. Up next in our series examining each core Yankee heading into 2020 is O-M-Gio. We've already covered Zack Britton, Aaron Judge, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Gleyber Torres, and Luke Voit. It's a stretch to say Urshela saved the Yankees last season -- they were really, really good! -- but he went from non-roster invitee to key contributor for a division winner, hitting .315/.355/.534 (132 wRC+) with 21 homers and defense that looked great but was maybe only average. Urshela went into last season as a career .225/.274/.315 (57 wRC+) hitter in 499 big league plate appearances. He was regarded as a good gloveman and nothing more. Little did we know the seeds of Urshela's breakout were planted late in 2018, when Triple-A Scranton hitting coach Phil Plantier helped him incorporate his lower half in his swing, allowing him to better drive the baseball. "Since last year when we got him, he really focused on staying in his legs a little bit more. He did that work with Phil Plantier at Triple-A and he brought it into winter ball and into the spring. He hasn’t skipped a beat, man," hitting coach Marcus Thames said last year. While I'm sure the rocket ball gave Urshela an extra dinger or five throughout the season, the contact quality was very good and the results were deserved:

Is Gio really a true talent .315/.355/.534 hitter? Eh, probably not. I'd bet against it. That was likely his career year. But, even if Urshela is only 80% of that going forward, he'll still be really good player, especially on a Yankees team that doesn't need him to be a star. In a perfect world Urshela is what, the eighth best player in the lineup? Maybe even ninth? As for getting better in 2020, I think plate discipline is the one area where Urshela has the biggest room for improvement. He's a low strikeout (18.3%)/low walk (5.3%) hitter rather than a high strikeout/low walk hitter, which is good, but Gio is very aggressive at the plate, and he grew more aggressive as the season went on. Pitchers used that aggressiveness against him late in the season, which led to Urshela lunging at pitches out of the zone and hitting too many ground balls, sapping his production:

Among the 207 players with at least 400 plate appearances last season, Urshela had the 11th highest chase rate at 41.2%. That's Jonathan Schoop (42.1%) and Adalberto Mondesi (41.6%) territory, and those guys have sub-.300 OBPs for their careers despite possessing other offensive skills (Schoop has power, Mondesi can run). It's also Javy Baez (43.5%) and Jeff McNeil (40.5%) territory. Baez makes it work because he has huge power and McNeil makes it work because he's an elite bat-to-ball guy. Urshela is neither of those things. I have no illusions that Gio can develop Aaron Judge caliber plate discipline. Can he cut his chase rate down into the 35% range though? It doesn't seem like much -- it's still comfortably above the 30.7% league average -- but it is a big difference. Urshela doesn't even have to take more walks, though I'd always welcome them. I'm more worried about him swinging at the wrong pitches and getting himself out, or not doing as much as damage as he could be (or should be). The goal of plate discipline is getting a good pitch to hit. Walks are a byproduct. I'd like to see Urshela be a little less aggressive at the plate and not chase out of the zone so much, allowing him to get into better counts. I know the aggressive approach worked for him last year, but history suggests it won't work forever. Very few hitters have long-term success chasing that much out of the zone without big time power or freakishly great contact skills. Secondly, I'd love love love to see Urshela get work at other infield positions this year. This is out of his hands to some degree -- the Yankees have to sign off -- but he is willing to do it. "Whatever they need me (to do). I’ll be playing anywhere -- second, share first. I’m feeling good, working out, getting ready for the 2020 year and see what happens," he said earlier this winter. Urshela has experience all over the infield but it's limited: 211.2 innings at first, 59.2 innings at second, and 361 innings at short. That's majors and minors too. The Yankees did use Gio at first base once last season -- he played five innings at first after Luke Voit exited the game with his sports hernia because the Yankees wanted to give DJ LeMahieu the full day off (Tyler Wade took over at third) -- and they even threw him into left field for two innings. Made a nice play at the side wall too. That was at the end of a blowout and Aaron Boone wanted to get some guys off their feet. The Yankees are not blessed with great middle infield depth at the moment -- Wade and Thairo Estrada are expected to compete for a bench spot in Spring Training -- and seeing whether Urshela can handle shortstop is worthwhile. If he can, the infield situation looks like this:

• First base: Luke Voit (starter), DJ LeMahieu (backup), Miguel Andujar (backup)
• Second base: DJ LeMahieu (starter), Gleyber Torres (backup)
• Shortstop: Gleyber Torres (starter), Gio Urshela (backup)
• Third base: Gio Urshela (starter), DJ LeMahieu (backup) Miguel Andujar (backup)

Using your starting shortstop as your backup second baseman isn't ideal, but it could work, and Spring Training is the time to experiment. If there's an injury and the Yankees need a full-time starter at second or short, they could turn to Estrada or Wade. Really, all they would need is Urshela to be able to play shortstop twice a week. Once to give LeMahieu a rest day and once to give Torres a rest day. I hope the Yankees give Urshela a look at short (and second) in Spring Training. There's little to no risk and a decent amount of upside. We know Andujar will work out at first base and in the outfield this spring. Why not try Urshela on the middle infield as well, especially given the depth chart? He's open to it and buy-in is half the battle. More than anything, better plate discipline could help Gio improve (or even just maintain) his production going forward. With any luck, the Yankees will see whether he can increase his versatility as well.

4. Triple-A roster preview. Every year around this time I previewed the Triple-A Scranton roster at RAB. Triple-A rosters are difficult to predict because players get hurt in Spring Training and guys get released, but it's still worth examining. These days teams need way more than 25 players (26 now) to get through a season. That was especially true for the Yankees last year. Even in a normal injury season teams will shuttle relievers up and down, use a spot starter to rest guys, cycle through bench players, things like that. The Triple-A roster is a taxi squad for the big league roster and this year will be no different. So, with that in mind, let's try to break down Triple-A Scranton's roster. Here are the roster candidates (yellow indicates the player is on the 40-man roster):

Catchers: In all likelihood Higashioka will be the big league backup, but it is not set in stone, so I'm mentioning him here. Five years ago Austin Romine was out of minor league options and an unproven big leaguer (like Higashioka now) and the Yankees put him through waivers at the end of Spring Training and sent him to Triple-A. I don't think that will happen with Higashioka but it's not impossible either. Realistically, I think Kratz and Sawyer are ticketed for Triple-A. Iannetta is a longtime big leaguer and I bet his minor league contract allows him to opt out at the end of camp, which he'd (probably) do if he doesn't win the backup job so he could seek a big league roster spot elsewhere. In recent years the Yankees had guys like Danny Espinosa, Wade LeBlanc, and Adam Lind do this. We all thought "hey, he's a nice little minor league signing," and then the guy doesn't even make it through Spring Training. I bet the same happens with Iannetta. Thole has spent parts of the last two seasons in Double-A and I expect him to begin 2020 there as well. Higashioka in the big leagues, Iannetta out of the organization, Kratz and Sawyer in Triple-A, and Thole in Double-A on Opening Day is my prediction. (Maybe there's a plan to transition the 39-year-old Kratz into coaching after Spring Training? The Yankees really like him, they've brought him back enough times to tell us that, and that could be the next phase of his career. The Yankees did something similar with current bullpen catcher Radley Haddad a few years ago. Just thinking out loud. Sawyer and Thole would be the Triple-A catching duo in that case.)

Infielders: Complicated. Complicated because so much is tied to Andujar's health and the big league roster. As discussed earlier, Gio Urshela could be the backup shortstop, meaning the Yankees may not need Estrada or Wade on the bench. Brian Cashman recently pointed out Andujar has minor league options remaining, so Triple-A is a possibility. That's why I have him in the table. Personally, if Andujar is healthy, I think he'll be on the MLB roster as a part-time corner infielder and part-time DH. Hard for me to see him being demoted to Triple-A for performance reasons. In that case, Ford may not have a spot on the roster. For our purposes, I'm going to assume Andujar is healthy and either Estrada or Wade is on the big league bench as the backup infielder. A big assumption, I know, but I think that's the most likely outcome. Ford could still make the roster in that case! The Yankees could go with Giancarlo Stanton in left field and Andujar at DH, or Mike Tauchman in left field and Stanton at DH. Either way, Andujar and Tauchman essentially share one bench spot. That means the four-man bench is Higashioka, Estrada or Wade, Andujar or Tauchman, and TBD. Ford could be the TBD. That said, he is a first base only guy, and that really limits roster flexibility. Andujar being able to play a passable outfield would really help Ford's big league roster chances. As it stands, I think Ford goes to Triple-A and shares first base and DH duty with Gittens, the reigning Double-A Eastern League MVP. Alvarez, Holder, Park, and either Estrada or Wade are then the logical candidates for the other three infield spots plus a bench spot. I thought Alvarez would get squeezed out here, but with the Kaleb Cowart signing apparently falling through, he makes the roster. Andujar being demoted or Urshela assuming backup shortstop duties would change the Triple-A infield outlook quite a bit.

Outfielders: The TBD big league bench spot will most likely come down to Ford or Frazier. I suppose the Yankees could carry Estrada and Wade -- Wade in particular has a decent amount of outfield experience -- though I think that's unlikely. They're a bit repetitive and there are better ways to use that last bench spot. Frazier is somehow still in the organization -- I really thought he'd get traded this winter (it's still possible, of course) -- and, right now, I think he's a better bet to make the MLB roster than Ford. He'd give the Yankees another outfielder and could also get DH at-bats. They have enough first base coverage with Luke Voit and DJ LeMahieu (and Andujar). Do I feel confident in Frazier being on the Opening Day roster? No, I do not. Given what we know right now, it strikes me as the most likely outcome. (Now watch the Yankees do something like re-sign Cameron Maybin.) With Frazier on the MLB bench and Alvarez, Ford, Gittens, Holder, Kratz, Park, Sawyer, and either Estrada or Wade penciled into Triple-A, we have four outfield spots open on our 25-man roster (assuming 13 pitchers). Ruta strikes me as the obvious candidate to be left on the outside looking in. He really cooled off following his hot start with Double-A Trenton last year. Amburgey was with the RailRiders last season and was pretty good, and Zehner's spent time with Scranton the last two years. Granite and Herrera have MLB time, so yeah, that means Ruta goes back to Double-A.

Starters: The Yankees are really gonna keep J.A. Happ, huh? It's looking more and more likely with each passing day, though I don't think it's set in stone. Trading him and his $17M salary -- even if it requires using a sweetener (Frazier?) -- means getting under the $248M third luxury tax threshold. That equals lots of real dollars saved -- the difference between keeping Happ and trading Happ is about $28M ($17M in salary and roughly $11M in luxury tax) -- and the team's top 2021 draft pick not moving back 10 spots. Are the Yankees really going to pay that price to keep a 37-year-old who had a 4.91 ERA (5.22 FIP) last year? How confident would you have to be in Happ rebounding to do that? Well, anyway, because Happ is still with the Yankees, I'm going to assume he'll open the season as the fifth starter. My hunch is Loaisiga will be in the big league bullpen on Opening Day, which still leaves the Yankees with five 40-man roster pitchers (Abreu, Garcia, King, Montgomery, Nelson) plus a guy with a fair amount of big league time (Tropeano) for Triple-A. Koerner has spent parts of the last two seasons with Triple-A Scranton too, so he's not to be dismissed. Here's the thing: there will be injuries in Spring Training. Last spring Luis Severino (shoulder) and King (elbow) got hurt. You hope they're not serious injuries, but injuries will happen. That's baseball. I could see the Yankees moving Abreu to the bullpen in his final minor league option season to see whether he develops consistency in that role. I don't think that'll happen until midseason though (that's when the Yankees made the move with Dellin Betances). Otherwise I expect Rosa to go back to Double-A, Loaisiga to be in the big league bullpen, and the other seven starters listed in the table to be on the Triple-A Scranton Opening Day roster. The Yankees have piggybacked minor league starters early in the season to limit workloads in recent years and they could do something like that again. In all likelihood, the Yankees will lose someone(s) to injury in Spring Training, which will clarify the RailRiders rotation. (Clarke Schmidt made only five appearances with Double-A Trenton last season, including the postseason. He'll start back there and move up to Triple-A at midseason.)

Bullpen: If nothing else, the Yankees have a lot -- a lot -- of Triple-A bullpen options. I have Loaisiga in the eight-man MLB bullpen with Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, and Adam Ottavino. That leaves one open spot and I think Holder is the early favorite. The overwhelming favorite? Hardly. I would not be the slightest bit surprised to see Avilan, Heller, King, or even Montgomery get that final bullpen spot. For now, I'm going to assume it's Holder. The seven starting pitchers leaves room for six more bullpen arms on the Triple-A roster. Avilan, Hale, Heller, Lyons, and Otero all have MLB time and are obvious picks for five of those six bullpen spots. The last spot likely comes down to Kriske, who had a breakout 2019 season with Double-A Trenton and was added to the 40-man roster in November, or Sosebee, who spent most of last season in Triple-A and even closed at times. I think it goes to Kriske. When facing a numbers crunch, bet on the guy who's on the 40-man roster. That means Sosebee will join Alvarez, Ort, Lane, and Reeves in the Double-A bullpen. Acevedo is a reclamation project now and it's safe to assume he will start the season in Double-A, or maybe even High-A. The x-factor here is the veteran Avilan (and Otero) having a Spring Training opt out similar to Iannetta. In that case, he could be out of the organization before Opening Day, allowing Sosebee to return to Triple-A. Alright, just to lay it all out, here's the projected Triple-A Scranton roster we just talked through (again, yellow indicates the player is on the 40-man roster):

As always, players will move around a ton. Park will play some second and short, Herrera will be in the lineup more often than not, the outfielders will rotate around, so on and so forth. As for the rotation, I'm guessing a Spring Training injury will turn that six-man rotation into a five-man rotation at some point. Koerner would move into the rotation should another need arise. Alvarez is likely ahead of Ort, Lane, and Reeves in the Double-A call-up pecking order based solely on last year's results. Got all that? Now prepare for it all to be horribly wrong and the Triple-A Opening Day roster to look much different than what I've laid out here. (As far as I know it's still a 25-man roster in the minors. They didn't get the 26th roster spot. I guess we should be happy MLB didn't take a roster spot away given the minor league contract plan.)

5. Minor league coaches announced. The Yankees announced their minor league coaching staffs last week. They lost their Triple-A (Jay Bell) and Double-A (Patrick Osborn) managers to other organizations over the winter, so there's more turnover than usual. Here are the four full season affiliate coaching staffs -- the short season league staffs haven't been announced yet -- with some notes and thoughts afterward.

David Adams! The former infield prospect is steadily climbing the coaching ladder. This will be his fourth year back with the Yankees and his first full season managerial job. Last year he managed Short Season Staten Island. More notably, Rosado is on the High-A staff, and he is the organization's pitching guru. He helped Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, and several others take their game to the next level over the years. Rosado figures to work with Roansy Contreras, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, and Alex Vizcaino this season. Davis is not the left-handed pitcher Doug Davis. He's a former infielder who was the Marlins bench coach in 2003 -- he wore his World Series ring during his RailRiders photo shoot -- and he has lots of Triple-A coaching and managerial experience. This ain't his first rodeo. Phelps and Plantier have been with the RailRiders for a few years now (as noted earlier, Plantier is credited with Gio Urshela's breakout). Mosquera is entering his 15th season with the Yankees and he's held a variety of roles over the years, including managing Low-A Charleston the last two seasons. Pretty much every player to come up through the system the last five years or so (Severino, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, etc.) played under Mosquera at some point. Dorante is another longtime organizational coach. This will be his ninth year in the system and his second stint as Low-A Charleston's skipper. Moskos is the same Daniel Moskos who was selected fourth overall in the 2007 draft. He hurt his arm and flamed out. He's new to the organization. It's interesting the Yankees have two defensive coaches at each level now. In the past some levels had one defensive coach, others had two, and sometimes there was no defensive coach. Now there's two at each level. Each level having a dedicated analyst is not that new, but this is the first time the Yankees have announced the position. Brady worked in the baseball operations department as an MLB Diversity Fellow last year. Now the Yankees have her working as an analyst for a minor league affiliate. Pretty cool. And finally, mad props if you remember Caonabo Cosme as a player from DotF in the pre-RAB days. My old (old) site has apparently been scrubbed off the internet. Alas. I know minor league coaching staffs are not the most exciting thing in the world, but these are the people tasked with developing the next wave of Yankees. They're important behind-the-scenes members of the organization. (Rachel Balkovec, the female hitting coach the Yankees hired a few weeks ago, will be in the rookie Gulf Coast League this year. Here's a good interview with her.)

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Curtis Granderson announced his retirement late last week. Here's his statement. Granderson is one of my favorite players ever and he retires with 344 home runs and +47.3 WAR in his 16-year career, including 115 homers and +15.0 WAR as a Yankee. He made my All-Decade Team and his transformation into an elite power hitter happened almost literally overnight in 2010. It was fascinating. Granderson will be good at whatever he does next. Coaching, broadcasting, whatever. He was heavily involved with the union during his career -- four years ago Granderson was voted as an Associate Player Representative, the highest elected position in the MLBPA -- and I could see him going that route too. Hell of a career either way. They don't come much more likeable than the Grandyman ... the Yankees had three players on MLB.com's recent top 100 prospects list: Jasson Dominguez (No. 54), Clarke Schmidt (No. 88), and Deivi Garcia (No. 92). In a separate piece, they looked at each team's best non-top 100 prospect, and for the Yankees it's ... Oswald Peraza? Oswald Peraza. Huh. "(The) modest numbers belie his tools and upside. He has plus speed, generates some of the best exit velocities in New York's system and plays a solid shortstop," says the write-up. The reports I've seen and gotten on Peraza are all over the map. One of the more divisive prospects I've encountered. Clearly the MLB.com crew is a big fan ... and finally, the Yankees announced there will be two new "social gathering locations" at Yankee Stadium this year. Here's the press release and here are renderings. Teams around the league have opened more of these hangout spots and I think they're great. Yeah, it gives people a reason to leave their seat and that looks bad on television, but who cares? As long as people are having fun, it doesn't bother me. Hopefully the art on the renderings is not accurate and the Yankees will not celebrate the AL East title in that way. Get all the way outta here with that. World Series title or don't bother. Let the Rays hang banners for division titles. The bar shouldn't be that low around these parts.

(Send your questions for the Friday mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)