January 31st, 2020: Tanaka, Senzel, Flores, Thole, Loaisiga, Rule Changes, Mailbag

Couple things. First, I wrote a CBS post looking ahead to 2028, the year a lot could change in baseball. If you're tired of reading about the same ol' trade candidates and the Astros being cheaters, there's that. Second, my boy R.J. Anderson wrote about MLB's credibility problem under commissioner Rob Manfred, expanding on some thoughts I had last week. And third, my annual Top 30 Prospects List comes out a week from today. Just throwing that reminder out there. Now here are today's thoughts.

1. How can he improve? Masahiro Tanaka. Our series examining each core Yankee chugs along with Tanaka, who started his fourth Opening Day in five years last season. We've already covered Zack Britton, Aaron Judge, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Gleyber Torres, and Luke Voit. Tanaka threw 182 innings with a 4.45 ERA (4.27 FIP) last season, and his walk (5.3%), ground ball (47.5%), and home run (1.38 HR/9) rates were all in line with his career norms. He managed to post his lowest homer rate in four years despite the rocket ball. Go figure. Tanaka's 19.6% strikeout rate was a career low and we can blame that on his splitter. For whatever reason the splitter did not behave early last season -- Tanaka and former pitching coach Larry Rothschild both said the baseball was at least partly to blame -- and it led to him changing his grip at midseason. You can see the old and new grips here. It was a significant change. Pitchers don't change the grip on their signature pitch on a whim. Tanaka had run out of answers and it was time for a drastic change. The new splitter grip debuted on July 31st. Here are the before and after numbers:

The new grip resulted in an extra two inches of drop without sacrificing velocity or spin -- you want low spin on a splitter (or changeup) to get that tumbling downward action -- and that led to more swings and misses, and more favorable contact. At the same time, the new grip splitter was not as effective as Tanaka's 2018 splitter, particularly when it comes to missing bats. The whiffs-per-swing rate on the new grip splitter was only a little more than half the 2018 splitter and that's a huge, huge difference. It's neither a coincidence nor a fluke Tanaka posted his lowest ever MLB strikeout rate last year. The split was never really there for him and getting that pitch right is priority No. 1 for Tanaka going into 2020. The wild card is the stupid baseball. We have no idea what the baseball will be like this year. Low seams like 2019? Higher seams like 2018 and earlier? No one knows. The ball is the single most important piece of equipment in the game and we have no idea what to expect from year to year, or even month to month given what we saw in the postseason last year. Good work, MLB. Real good work. With any luck, we'll have a nice high-seam baseball in 2020 and Tanaka can go back to his old splitter. If not, then he'll have to stick with last year's new grip, or maybe even come up with another new grip. I guess we'll find out in Spring Training. Beyond the splitter, I am curious to see whether Tanaka's pitch selection changes under new pitching coach Matt Blake. Tanaka has been the poster boy for the anti-fastball philosophy the last few seasons and it works well for him. He's never been a guy who will overpower hitters. He succeeds with dastardly offspeed pitches. Tanaka threw more fastballs last season than the previous two years ...

... and my guess is that was a conscious adjustment. He's been at the anti-fastball thing for a few years now and surely hitters have caught on, and now Tanaka has adjusted back by throwing a few more fastballs. I kinda sorta wrote about this being a possibility last year. The Yankees fully committed to analytically driven player development and game planning this offseason, and Tanaka's pitch selection strikes me as an area that could be tweaked to improve results. Tanaka is a master craftsman on the mound. He's a smart pitcher who's shown he can make adjustments, and I trust he'll be able to implement whatever Blake and the Yankees come up with this year. More than anything, Tanaka needs his old splitter back, and getting that pitch back depends on the baseball to some degree. Pitch selection could also lead to potential improvement as Tanaka enters the final year of his contract. Goodness, remember when the Yankees first signed him? Feels like it was just yesterday. Now Tanaka is entering the last year of that seven-year contract. Time flies, man.

2. Senzel trade. The Reds have been one of the busiest teams in baseball this offseason -- deserve has nothing to do with it, but the Reds deserve to win the NL Central on the basis of being the division's only team to really try this winter -- and a few days ago Jon Heyman reported Cincinnati is "considering" trading Nick Senzel. GM Nick Krall immediately threw cold water on that -- "I don’t know where (the trade rumors) came from. I think people were like, 'oh, hey, (too many outfielders).' You can speculate all you want, but he’s on our team," Krall told Bobby Nightengale -- but what's he supposed to say? Of course he shot down the trade talk. I heard rumblings the Reds pushed for Francisco Lindor with a package built around Senzel earlier this winter, though obviously nothing came of it. There's enough smoke here that I'm comfortable saying yeah, the Reds are open to trading Senzel, though they won't give him away. There's no obvious lineup spot for him now and if they can trade him for an impact player who better fits their roster, it'd make sense. The Yankees should (and likely have already) inquire about Senzel, I think. Any time a good young player becomes available, they should get involved. Senzel was the No. 2 pick in the 2016 draft and he authored a .256/.315/.427 (90 wRC+) batting line with 12 homers in 414 big league plate appearances last season. Not great, but it was his first taste of the show, and the talent is obvious. MLB.com ranked him the sixth best prospect in baseball going into last season. Here's a snippet of their scouting report:

Originally a third baseman out of Tennessee, he can handle the hot corner and he also has the makings of an above-average second baseman ... When healthy, Senzel uses a combination of strength and bat speed, along with an advanced approach at the plate, to be an extremely dangerous hitter from the right side. He makes consistent hard contact, doesn't strike out a lot and draws walks, which points to a future of hitting over .300 and perhaps competing for batting titles.

The hard contact wasn't there last season (87.5 mph average exit velocity) but again, it was his MLB debut, and the spray chart indicates Senzel is a Yankee Stadium short porch friendly right-handed hitter:

The Reds played Senzel in center field last season because they had nowhere else to play him -- the Nationals played Trea Turner in center field once upon a time too --  though he fits best on the infield, and he has second base experience. DJ LeMahieu will be a free agent after this coming season and, as much as we all like Thairo Estrada (and as much as I like Tyler Wade), the Yankees do not have a clear-cut starting caliber middle infielder coming up through the farm system anytime soon. Senzel would fill a long-term opening at second base, and if that doesn't work out, there's still third base and the outfield as fallback plans. The biggest knock against Senzel is that he's injury prone. He dealt with vertigo, a broken finger, and bone spurs in his elbow in the minors, and his 2019 season ended in early September because he needed season-ending labrum surgery on his right (throwing) shoulder. Similar to Miguel Andujar, the surgery was on Senzel's back shoulder when hitting, not the front (power) shoulder, and that's an important difference. The injuries have taken a bite out of Senzel's stock, so, in theory, you would not have to pay full freight to acquire him. The Reds are in it to win it and I have a hard time believing they'd trade Senzel for a package of prospects that does not help them in a meaningful way in 2020. Matching up on a trade is a hard part because the Yankees aren't going to want to subtract from their MLB roster. I think it's worth calling the Reds and asking though. Senzel's a very promising young player and the Yankees are quite good at buying low on other club's talented youngsters, and this seems like an opportunity to do so. Maybe there's a trade package to be built around post-Tommy John surgery Jordan Montgomery? I'd seriously consider a trade built around Deivi Garcia too. A good but not truly elite pitching prospect for a guy who was considered an elite infield prospect as recently as 12 months ago? At the very least, you have to think long and hard about that. Chances are nothing will come of this because the Reds won't actually trade Senzel and because the Yankees and Reds don't appear to match up well as trade partners. Still an idea I had kicking around though. Senzel's worth a phone call.

3. Pursuing Flores. Earlier this week Jeff Passan reported the market for free agent utility infielder Wilmer Flores is beginning to heat up. Flores is a sneaky great role player -- bet you didn't know he hit .317/.361/.487 (120 wRC+) with nine homers and a 10.9% strikeout rate in 285 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks last season -- who is somehow still only 28, and he has a carrying tool in his ability to mash lefties. The numbers:

• 2019 vs. LHP: .337/.367/.615 (151 wRC+)
• Career vs. LHP: .276/.318/.494 (116 wRC+)

In case you haven't noticed, there are a ton of left-handed starters in the AL East. The Red Sox have David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Chris Sale. The Rays have Brendan McKay, Blake Snell, and Ryan Yarbrough. The Blue Jays signed Hyun-Jin Ryu and also have Ryan Borucki and Anthony Kay. The Orioles have, uh, Wade LeBlanc. The Yankees are obsessive with their rest and on days DJ LeMahieu or Gleyber Torres sit, sending Flores out there against a southpaw would be preferable to Thairo Estrada or lefty hitting Tyler Wade. At least it would be to me. Wilmer has long been regarded as an A+ clubhouse guy and he's familiar with New York after spending all that time with the Mets -- he was part of their 2015 National League pennant team, so he's been through the postseason grind -- so the intangibles check out too. The defense stinks and that's the big drawback. Flores has experience at all four infield positions but DRS has him firmly in the negative across the board, and he hasn't played short since 2016. Could he fill in there once a week? Yeah, probably. Can you live with the shaky defense to get that bat into the lineup against lefties? I guess it depends. The Yankees are thin on the middle infield behind LeMahieu and Torres, so if they could get Flores on a minor league deal and promise him an Opening Day bench spot, I'd be open to it. Right now, the Yankees are one pulled hamstring away from Estrada or Wade being a starter, and I don't love that. With his career-long ability to punish lefties, Flores would be a nifty little bench addition. (As for opening a 40-man roster spot, the Yankees can put Tommy John surgery rehabber Aaron Hicks on the 60-day injured list once Spring Training begins.)

4. Thole signing. In last week's non-roster invitees preview post, I said I expected the Yankees to sign one more catcher before Spring Training, and they've now done that. Joel Sherman reports the Yankees have signed journeyman backstop Josh Thole to a minor league deal with a big league camp invite (presumably). He'll make $600,000 at the MLB level. Thole, 33, has not played in the big leagues since 2016, and he is most notable for being R.A. Dickey's personal catcher with the Mets and Blue Jays. He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A with the Angels and Dodgers, and he split the year before between Double-A with the Tigers and independent ball. Thole has never hit -- he's a career .242/.313/.306 (73 wRC+) hitter in nearly 1,500 big league plate appearances -- though he's been regarded as a good framer and has been an average thrower throughout his career. He is the quintessential journeyman depth catcher. The signing likely means one of two things: Either the Yankees don't expect the recently signed Chris Iannetta to stick around after Spring Training -- his contract may include an opt out if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, which is not an uncommon clause for longtime big leaguers (the Yankees got Lyle Overbay because he opted out of his minor league deal with the Red Sox at the end of Spring Training 2013) -- or they're planning to send Thole to Double-A, where he's spent parts of the last two seasons. The best upper level catcher in the farm system is, uh, Donny Sands? Yeah, probably. Anthony Seigler and Josh Breaux are still Single-A players. The Yankees need some Double-A catching depth and Thole could be their solution. I'd rank the big league backup catcher candidates in this order:

1. Kyle Higashioka
(enormous gap)
2. Chris Iannetta
(moderate gap)
3. Erik Kratz
4. Josh Thole

Thole is the 11th player the Yankees have signed to a minor league contract this offseason, joining Iannetta, Kratz, lefty Luis Avilan, lefty Elvis Escobar, outfielder Zack Granite, utility man Rosell Herrera, infielder Caleb Kowart, lefty Tyler Lyons, righty Nick Tropeano, and injured righty Adam Warren. Escobar is a recently converted position player with only 11.1 career innings above High-A. He might not have received a Spring Training invite. (With pitchers and catchers set to report in 12 days, the Yankees will announce their non-roster invitees any day now. Maybe even today.)

5. Loaisiga and the WBC. Earlier this week MLB announced details for the 2021 World Baseball Classic qualifying round (press release). The two-pool, 12-team event will take place this March in Arizona. Each pool consists of a nine-game double-elimination round, with the two pool winners securing spots in the 2021 WBC. I bring this up because Nicaragua is one of the 12 teams and Jonathan Loaisiga is Nicaraguan. He was on their 2017 WBC roster but was unable to play because he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time. Loaisiga is healthy now and he's raised his stock considerably since 2017, and he very well might be Nicaragua's best pitcher. It's either him, Erasmo Ramirez, or J.C. Ramirez. Loaisiga may jump at the opportunity to represent his country and there's nothing the Yankees could do to stop him (teams can only block rehabbing players from the WBC). Tough decision, no? Do you represent your country in international play or stay with the Yankees and try to win an Opening Day roster spot? How many times will you get a chance to do either in your career? For all we know Loaisiga may have no shot at an Opening Day roster spot. There are two open spots in the bullpen behind the six core relievers (Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino), but I'd bet on Jonathan Holder being the favorite for one, and the other could go to a veteran like Luis Avilan. The Yankees may be planning to send Loaisiga to Triple-A to continue working as a starter no matter how well he pitches in Spring Training. I'd carry Loaisiga on the Opening Day roster, and he was used quite a bit in the postseason (four appearances in nine games), which indicates some level of trust. I think Loaisiga will have every opportunity to win an Opening Day roster spot but we don't know that for sure. Personally, I would stay in Spring Training rather than go to the WBC qualifier. Loaisiga is not an established big leaguer and he has a long injury history, which equals risk. Making the team is my livelihood and that would be my focus. That said, I'm not Loaisiga, and he may feel differently. If he does and he wants to pitch in the WBC qualifier, great. I wish him luck. Ultimately, we're talking about missing 7-10 days, so it's probably not that big a deal. Loaisiga would miss maybe two Grapefruit League appearances, if that. This almost certainly is not as big a deal as I'm making it, but it will be a #thingtowatch in Spring Training.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. I hate that the Astros hired Dusty Baker. He is the perfect manager for them. They're in crisis mode and Baker is great with the media, and that'll help all this blow over. Also, he's a players' manager, so any clubhouse issues figure to be squashed in short order. Blah. Dusty is character and baseball is running short on people like him these days. I can already tell I'll be torn between wanting him to finally get a World Series ring and the Astros losing in the most crushing way possible this October ... following the Starling Marte trade, the Pirates are on track to have a $55.3M payroll on Opening Day, according to Cot's. It's actually less than that because Felipe Vazquez is likely going to prison, so they won't have to pay him his $5.75M salary while he's on the restricted list. A sub-$50M payroll in the year 2020 is shameful. Two years ago the MLBPA filed a grievance against the Pirates (and three other teams) because they weren't spending enough, and that was when Pittsburgh had an $86M payroll. The Yankees and other big market teams have complained about paying into revenue sharing only to have teams like the Pirates seemingly pocket the money. Don't be surprised if the MLBPA gets on Pittsburgh again. I'd say big market teams should push for some sort of revenue sharing accountability (i.e. show us how you're spending the money we give you) in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, but I think we all know their proposed solution will likely be "we want to pay less revenue sharing," which will accomplish nothing because it'll be a non-starter ... as expected, the 26-man roster will have a 13-pitcher limit. Jayson Stark says MLB has finally let teams know it will be 13 pitchers and 13 position players. That was the assumption all winter, but now it's official. The extra player for doubleheaders can be a pitcher, and there's a set of rules to designate two-way players. I think it's interesting MLB set rules for position players pitching. They can only pitch in extra innings or when the score is separated by at least six runs now. Teams are using position players as pitchers more than ever before and it's kinda dangerous because position players don't train to pitch. I would've preferred an eight-run score separation -- six runs happens fairly often and I worry managers will feel some obligation to use a position player on the mound in those games because the rules say they can -- but whatever. It all works for me ... in another rule change, Pedro Gomez says the crew chief will now wear a microphone and explain why calls are upheld or overturned on replay, similar to NFL referees announcing penalties. I'm not looking forward to the replay process taking even longer, but at least now we'll get an explanation. I'll take it. Hopefully we get an MLB version of Wes McCauley ... and finally, man on the scene Erik Boland says Miguel Andujar, Mike Ford, J.A. Happ, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Tyler Wade are among the Yankees already in Tampa working out at the minor league complex. Spring Training's comin'. I can't wait.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Kevin asks: I was reading your MLB in 2028 article and I'm curious what an expansion draft would look like in 2020. Who would crack the Yankees top 12 in protection?

In the 1997 expansion draft each team could protect 15 players in the first round, plus an additional three players after the first and second rounds. Players with no-trade clauses had to be protected. Minor leaguers who were not yet Rule 5 Draft eligible and impending free agents were exempt from the draft. Everyone else was fair game.

In my 2028 post I wondered whether MLB would follow in the NHL's footsteps and tighten up the protection rules to help the expansion teams compete right away. The Vegas Golden Knights were a smashing success -- they went to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season -- and it was great for the game overall. I could see MLB following suit.

My suggestion was limiting teams to 12 protected players in the first round rather than 15 to help the expansion teams compete in Year 1, or at least not be abject embarassments. Based on that, this would be my Yankees' protection list, assuming the expansion draft were held today (for our hypothetical's sake):

• First 12: Aroldis Chapman (no-trade clause), Gerrit Cole (no-trade clause), Giancarlo Stanton (no-trade clause), Miguel Andujar, Deivi Garcia, Chad Green, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela
• Next three: Clint Frazier, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jordan Montgomery
• Next three: Zack Britton, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino
• Exempt: Jasson Dominguez (age), Brett Gardner (free agent), DJ LeMahieu (free agent), James Paxton (free agent), Clarke Schmidt (age), Masahiro Tanaka (free agent)

That leaves Albert Abreu, Luis Cessa, Roansy Contreras, Thairo Estrada, Estevan Florial, Mike Ford, Kyle Higashioka, Luis Gil, Mike King, Luis Medina, Mike Tauchman, Luke Voit, and Tyler Wade as the notable players exposed to the expansion draft. If we can protect 15 players in the first round rather than 12, just bump the next three up.

Teams can only lose one player per round in the expansion draft and I imagine the Yankees would lose Montgomery in this scenario. A young lefty with four years of control would be hard to pass up. Maybe it's worth protecting Montgomery over Urshela? I'd rather keep the position player over the post-Tommy John surgery pitcher, personally.

I'm assuming an expansion team would not be interested in an expensive reliever (Britton and Ottavino) because that's the last thing a young team needs, or a one-dimensional first baseman (Ford and Voit) because those guys are pretty easy to find. Leaving them exposed is an easy call, I think. Guys like Abreu, Cessa, and King are classic expansion draft fodder.

If an expansion team wants my backup catcher (Higashioka), backup outfielder (Tauchman), or backup infielder (Estrada and Wade), so be it. Losing Contreras or Medina would sting -- I am an irrationally big Roansy fan -- though I'd bet against an expansion team taking a Single-A pitching prospect. They'd go for the more sure thing.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Sandeep asks (short version): Since MLB admitted that the balls being used are not uniformly manufactured, can we expect to see pitchers being even more picky about which ball they choose to pitch with -- i.e. asking the ump for a different ball repeatedly? I imagine that some pitchers might go through this process multiple times to get a "good" ball, thus slowing down the game and potentially affecting offense?

Gerrit Cole already does this! During the postseason the cameras caught him getting a new ball after a pitch in the dirt, inspecting it, then tossing it away and asking for another new baseball. He then inspected that ball before proceeding. You can see it right here. That's not illegal. The umpire might find it annoying, but it's perfectly fair game.

I assume Cole was looking for a baseball with higher seams, which won't travel as far as a ball with lower seams. Higher seams also allow for a better grip, in theory. Cole does this already and I hope it spreads to the rest of the Yankees. Like I said, it's perfectly legal, and it is an advantage gained. I could definitely see this catching on, especially with MLB showing so little interest in having a consistent baseball. (How insane is that? Good grief.)

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)