December 27th, 2019: Betances, Gregorius, Longest Tenured Yankees, Perez, Mailbag

Only a few days remain in 2019. Pretty crazy, isn't it? Feels like the whole Y2K freakout was only a few years ago. May the next 20 years be better than the last 20 years, for the Yankees and all of us personally. Here are today's thoughts.

1. Betances leaves. This is the best sad offseason ever. First CC Sabathia retired, then Didi Gregorius left to join Joe Girardi and the Phillies, and now Dellin Betances went to the Mets. The Mets! This extremely cursed image hit the internet Christmas Eve (via @Mets):

I hate it. If you'd have told me two months ago that Gregorius and Betances would sign one-year contracts this offseason, I would've assumed they would re-sign with the Yankees. At the time, it would've been unfathomable to me the Yankees would let them sign one-year contracts with other teams without putting up much of a fight (as far as we know). Sir Didi and Dellin on one-year deals? Sign me up. Who could say no to that? The Yankees, apparently. I know it's not quite that simple -- Gregorius and Betances have a say in it too -- but damn yo, really gonna let two core Yankees take one-year deals elsewhere? What a bummer. Here are the details of Dellin's kinda complicated contract:

• 2020: $5.3M signing bonus and $2.2M salary
• 2021: $6M player option plus $3.8M in appearance-based incentives ($3M buyout)
• 2022: $1M vesting option with 50 games in 2020 ($500,000 buyout); $2M vesting option with 60 games in 2020 ($1M buyout); $3M vesting option with 70 games in 2020 ($1M buyout)

Long story short, Betances is guaranteed $10.5M and the worst case scenario, meaning he gets hurt or is bad next year, is $14M. He'd just pick up the 2021 player option in that case, and also get the buyout for the 2022 option that didn't vest. The vesting option salaries are low because of the injuries. If Betances pitches well next year but not at an elite level and he picks up the player option, the low 2022 salaries give the Mets protection in case he breaks down in 2021. The contract can max out at $20.3M across three years. Blake Treinen signed a one-year deal worth $10M earlier this month and Betances gets a slightly higher guarantee despite his injury-plagued season because his track record is much stronger than Treinen's. Seems fair to me. With Gregorius, you could quibble with how he fit the roster. That is not the case with Betances. The Yankees have two open bullpen spots behind Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, and Adam Ottavino, and Dellin could've slotted into one of those spots. He'd have been a high upside play who would've cost nothing but money, and the Yankees would not have needed him to take on important innings right out of the gate. Pretty much the best case scenario for a guy coming off a lost season. If it works, great, you have another weapon in the bullpen, and there were times the Yankees needed another arm out there this past season. If it doesn't work, oh well, it's just money and you weren't counting on the guy to be a key late-inning arm anyway. Bah. Betances is a New Yorker through and through -- "I love New York. I grew up in Manhattan. Went to high school in Brooklyn. Played minor league ball in Staten Island. Made it to the big leagues in the Bronx," he reminded everyone in the press release -- and he was open about wanting to finish his career with the Yankees. I feel like the only reason Dellin did not return to the Yankees is because the Yankees didn't want him back, and that sucks.

2. Devil's advocate: Dellin and Didi. In a recent mailbag I said I trust Brian Cashman and his staff implicitly -- they've more than earned the benefit of the doubt -- and that all my griping is "done as an outsider and biased observer." As such, I feel it's instructive to present the other side of the argument from time to time, the side I don't agree with. Here's what I wrote about passing on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Here's what I wrote about splitting up the righty bats. I figure it's worth doing something similar with Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius. Starting with Betances, I mean, it's pretty obvious why letting him walk could be a smart idea, right? He just missed pretty much the entire 2019 season with a shoulder injury -- he suffered a setback during his rehab as well -- and then tore his Achilles in September. It was a partial tear rather than a full rupture, but it was still a tear. Zack Britton said it wasn't until this season that he felt normal after blowing out his Achilles in Dec. 2017. Granted, Britton had a full rupture, but it's a reminder it may take awhile for Betances to get back to being himself. The injuries are an obvious reason to move on. Also, Dellin will turn 32 in March and he's endured a heavy workload the last few years -- Betances ranks 26th in appearances since 2014 even while missing most of 2019 -- and, even at his best, he is control-challenged. Betances is prone to losing the strike zone and, as we saw late in 2017, it can get bad enough that he is rendered completely unusable. As good as he's been throughout his career, Dellin carries a lot of risk right now. A lot. As for Gregorius, he just had a poor 2019 season that saw him post a .276 OBP, and that is putrid. Sir Didi has never been a high on-base player -- he had a .313 OBP in five years with the Yankees and topped out with a .335 OBP in 2018 -- and once he loses a little power or ability to hit for average, his offensive value could go in the tank quick. Gregorius is not a hard contact guy at all. He has to find holes for base hits and the short porch (and juiced ball?) undoubtedly inflated his power numbers, and banking on a guy continuing to do that when he turns 30 in two months and he stopped doing it last year is risky. I mean:

The crazy thing is those underwhelming exit velocity and hard-hit rates were Didi's best as a Yankee. Players who don't hit the ball hard can have a short offensive peak and Gregorius had his peak in 2017 and 2018. Aside from the risk that he becomes or now is a true talent below-average hitter, Gregorius is a year removed from Tommy John surgery. I suspect he'll be fine as he gets further away from surgery, but who knows? It's a major procedure and it carries risk. If his arm is compromised at all, or if he loses a step once his age begins with a 3, Gregorius may have to move off shortstop, in which case his value drops. The big risk is on the offensive side, clearly. The defensive side shouldn't be ignored either. Also, like it or not, the Yankees are operating on a budget. It's a very large budget and we don't know the exact target payroll number ($240M? $248M? $260M?), but a number exists, and every dollar the Yankees give Betances or Gregorius is a dollar they can't spend elsewhere (like on Gerrit Cole?). The money aspect is stupid and fans should never ever stop expecting the Yankees to spend more -- last year's Opening Day payroll ($203.9M) was lower than 2005's Opening Day payroll ($208.3M) despite the massive increase in revenues (they opened a new ballpark in 2009!), and I'm telling you, give them an inch and they're going to take a mile, the moment fans shift to being thankful the Yankees spend as much as they do is the moment the Yankees start looking to scale back (or simply keep payroll static going forward) -- but it is what it is. The Yankees have a finite number of dollars to spend this winter and perhaps those dollars can be spent better on other players. The decisions not to re-sign Betances or Gregorius were likely financial, maybe performance-based, and almost certainly not about the clubhouse culture. Dellin's control always made him risky, even when he was at his peak, and now he's coming back from two pretty significant injuries. Sir Didi had a major surgery last October and failed to reach base even 28% of the time in 2019. I don't like it and it sucks seeing both guys leave, but there are reasons to believe it was the right set of moves.

3. Rest of the winter. Gosh, I really hope the Yankees aren't planning to call it an offseason after signing Gerrit Cole and re-signing Brett Gardner. They're probably going to trade J.A. Happ and his contract at some point, but I mean I hope they aren't done adding, and not just non-roster depth guys. Chances are the Yankees still have more moves coming -- the Josh Hader trade talk persists and there are 22 unsigned free agents who project to at least +1 WAR in 2020 -- but re-signing Dellin Betances seemed pretty obvious and straightforward, and it didn't happen, so now I wonder whether the Yankees are more or less done for the winter (likely for payroll reasons). That's probably dumb, but it's how I feel at the moment. As is, the Yankees would go into 2020 as AL East favorites and on the very short list of the most serious World Series contenders, and that's awesome. Standing pat would be defensible. It would also be very boring and also kinda frustrating. The bench can be upgraded -- who is the DH right now? we just hoping Miguel Andujar makes a best case scenario return from shoulder surgery or that the Yankees actually play Clint Frazier (lol) or that the Mikes (Ford and Tauchman) aren't flashes in the pan? -- particularly the reserve middle infielder's spot, where Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada are the only depth behind Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu. There's room for another reliever in the bullpen too. Someone to push Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, and Stephen Tarpley down the depth chart a peg. And hey, why not a fifth starter candidate, assuming Happ is traded at some point? Someone to compete against Mike King, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jordan Montgomery in Spring Training while Domingo German serves his not yet announced suspension. Adding pitching depth is never a bad move. The Yankees were very active last January. They signed LeMahieu, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, and Troy Tulowitzki (remember him?) that month, so maybe some smaller additions are coming next month, as the club value shops through what's left of free agency. I just really hope the offseason plan isn't sign Cole and let a bunch of guys leave so it financials are palatable. More can be done and more should be done. "We’ll stay engaged with all marketplaces. Obviously we have a team we’re excited about, but you’re never pencil down until August 31. We’ll  continue to evaluate all opportunities that present themselves over the course of time and see where that takes us ... We’re very comfortable with where we’re at," Brian Cashman said following the Cole press conference.

4. Longest tenured Yankees. Three of the longest tenured Yankees left the organization this offseason. Dellin Betances (2006 draft) and Austin Romine (2007 draft) both departed as free agents and CC Sabathia (Dec. 2008 free agent signing) retired. Because I'm a nerd who cares about things like the longest tenured player in the organization, here are the five longest tenured Yankees at the moment. This includes minor leaguers not on the 40-man roster but not players who left and came back, like 2009 draft pick Adam Warren. This is continuous service only:

1. Brett Gardner (2005 draft)
2. Kyle Higashioka (2008 draft)
3. Gary Sanchez (July 2009 international signing)
4. Miguel Andujar (July 2011 international signing)
5. Luis Severino (Dec. 2011 international signing)

Shout out to minor league catcher Francisco Arcia, who signed with the Yankees as an international amateur in July 2006. He spent 2006-15 with the Yankees, bounced around the next three years (Arcia got into 40 games with the 2018 Angels), then returned to the Yankees in 2019. He's spent a lot of time in the system. Can't say I was ready for the day Andujar, Sanchez, and Severino were among the longest tenured players in the organization, but here we are. Know what else it crazy? The sixth longest tenured player is Thairo Estrada. He signed with the Yankees as an international free agent in August 2012. The list of the longest tenured big league Yankees (i.e. who's been on the MLB roster the longest) is something else:

1. Brett Gardner (called up for good on July 26th, 2008)
2. Masahiro Tanaka (Jan. 2014 free agent signing)
3. Aaron Hicks (Nov. 2015 trade)
4. Gary Sanchez (called up for good on Aug. 3rd, 2016)
5. Aaron Judge (called up for good on Aug. 13th, 2016)

Who knew Hicks is the third longest continuously tenured Yankee? Pretty nuts. Severino is sixth even though he made his MLB debut in Aug. 2015. He had to be sent back to Triple-A in May 2016 and was called back up for good on Sept. 1st, 2016. Another incredible list is the oldest players on the 40-man roster:

1. J.A. Happ (37 years and 69 days)
2. Adam Ottavino (34 years and 35 days)
3. Zack Britton (32 years and 5 days)
4. Aroldis Chapman (31 years and 302 days)
5. DJ LeMahieu (31 years and 167 days)

Happ seems likely to be traded at some point, at which point the oldest player on the 40-man roster will be someone who will play the entire season at age 34. As best I can tell, the only time the Yankees have ever gone an entire season without a player age 35+ getting a plate appearance or facing a batter was 1975. In fact, the 1975 Yankees never even used a player whose season age was 34, nevermind 35. Ed Brinkman (68 plate appearances) and Pat Dobson (207.2 innings) were the elder statesmen at 33. That blows my mind. Once Happ is traded, the Yankees will have a chance to go through the entire 2020 season without using a 35-year-old. It probably won't happen -- there are so many random call-ups throughout the season that chances are at least one will be 35+ (39-year-old third catcher Erik Kratz is the obvious candidate) -- but the fact it is even possible is pretty amazing. The Yankees have been skewing young the last few years, we all knew that, but I didn't realize the 40-man roster was this young. Only five other current 40-man roster players are 30+ (Hicks, Tanaka, Tommy Kahnle, James Paxton, Giancarlo Stanton), so once Happ is traded, 31 of the 39 players on the 40-man will be in their 20s. I have no idea how that compares to the other 29 clubs, but compared to the last two decades of Yankees rosters, that feels almost impossible. The Yankees were very old for a very long time.

UPDATE: I'm an idiot and forgot to include Brett Gardner on the list of the oldest 40-man roster players. He's the second oldest at 36 years and 125 days. The last time the Yankees went an entire season without using a player with a season age of 37+ was 1992, when Steve Farr (52 innings) and Scott Sanderson (193.1 innings) were the oldest Yankees in their age 35 season. The only 37+ player on the roster in 2019 was CC Sabathia and his 107.1 innings.

5. Adams trade. So long, Chance Adams. The Yankees shipped Adams to the Royals earlier this week after designating him for assignment last week to clear a 40-man roster spot for Gerrit Cole. The return: Cristian Perez, a 21-year-old shortstop who hit .252/.290/.285 (68 wRC+) with zero home runs and twice as many caught stealings (10) as stolen bases (five) in High-A in 2019, which is certifiable awful. The closest Perez has come to appearing on a prospect list is being mentioned in the "Bench Types" section of FanGraphs' top Royals prospects post this past April. "Perez is an instinctive defender with some feel to hit," says the write-up and that is the entire write-up, so there you go. That's all we know about the guy. Feels like a worse version of Yankees prospects Diego Castillo and Oswaldo Cabrera, two bat control middle infield types who have been doing nothing notable in Single-A the last few years. I am: underwhelmed. At the same time, players who have been designated for assignment usually don't net much in trades, especially guys who have allowed 32 runs and 64 baserunners in 33 big league innings like Adams. Also, the Yankees have a bit of a knack for unearthing quality prospects in other organizations, so perhaps they view Perez as a guy with untapped potential, who their new player development system can help take the next step. Probably not, but it could happen. I was (and still am) interested to see what Adams can do as a full-time reliever and maybe Kansas City will use him that way. They've had quite a bit of success with the starter-to-reliever transition in recent years (Wade Davis, Luke Hochevar, Ian Kennedy, Mike Minor, etc.), so maybe Adams is next in line. More likely, he will be designated for assignment again at some point in 2020, because that's usually how it goes with fringe 40-man roster guys. Too bad Adams didn't work out or that the Yankees didn't cash him in as a trade chip when his prospect stock was at its highest. A lost opportunity, he was.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees have lost an awful lot of leadership/veteran presence/whatever you want to call it this winter with CC Sabathia retiring and Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius, and Austin Romine leaving as free agents. Those four all had big voices in the room and now others will have to pick up the slack. Hopefully it's not too much to put on guys like Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge all at once. I think they'll be fine, but this is not something to overlook. The clubhouse will have a different vibe in 2020 ... the Yankees have signed outfielder and former Rays prospect Thomas Milone to a minor league deal, reports John Vittas. Milone, 24, hit .281/.353/.427 (130 wRC+) with four home runs and 18 steals in 83 games split between High-A and Double-A this past season. He's regarded as an excellent defensive center fielder who needs to show a little more consistency at the plate to have a chance to make it as a fourth outfielder. As far as "I've never heard of this guy" minor league free agent pickups go, Milone is pretty interesting, especially since the Yankees don't have great center field depth at the moment ... the Yankees have their new second bullpen catcher: Aaron Barnett. He had been a player development intern with the Mariners, according to Corey Brock (subs. req'd). Barnett joined Seattle after catching four years at Pepperdine and going undrafted in 2017. There might be a little more to the hire than "he's going to catch relievers when they warm up." The Yankees may see Barnett as a coach in training. I know they love primary bullpen catcher Radley Haddad and think he has a future in the game beyond his current role ... and finally, Maury Brown reports MLB's revenues checked in at $10.7 billion this year, up from $10.3 billion last year. It's the 17th consecutive year MLB has set a new revenue record. And yet, the average player salary declined this year for the second straight season for the first time in MLBPA history. Be happy the Yankees signed Cole but don't feel bad or greedy for expecting them to do more, because the money's there. Teams are just really good at pretending it's not.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Mike asks: Would you be satisfied if Cole produced at the same level that Sabathia did during his first 9 years as a Yankee (2 CY caliber, 2 very good, 2 bad, 1 injury riddled, and 2 good)? Sabathia produced roughly 27 bWAR during those 9 years. At 3 WAR per year they'd be paying about $12M per WAR for Cole.

For context, that 27 WAR puts Sabathia among the 50 most productive pitchers in the age group (ages 28-36) in the last 50 years, and the top 25 in the last 25 years. Cole's nine-year contract will cover ages 29-37 and 27 WAR would put him in the top 40 for that age range over the last 50 years. Not super elite but very good.

Spending $12M per WAR is bad business in a context free world where the only thing that matters is surplus value. The cost of a win is not linear -- you should be willing to pay a higher rate for a +6 WAR player than a +2 WAR player, and to acquire your 92nd win than your 72nd win -- even though most analysis the last decade has assumed that to be the case.

Dollars per WAR is overly simplistic and I also thinking judging the success of a free agent signing on World Series titles is overly simplistic too. Do three rings make the Barry Zito signing a success even though the Giants paid him $126M for +2.4 WAR? I don't think so. Zito was mostly a bystander for those titles, not a key contributor. Championships are a team accomplishment.

Sabathia was worth nearly 30 wins in nine seasons, including several years as a legitimate +7 WAR player, plus he was the ace on a World Series team. The overly simplistic math checks out ...

• Actual salary: $205.9M
• Production value: $201.7M 

... and when you factor in the Yankees were a bona fide contender most of those nine years, Sabathia was well worth the money. Buying those extra wins contributed not only to a ring, but also division titles and postseason appearances. Sabathia was the best of both worlds. He helped win a World Series and provided the surplus value.

All things considered, yes, I would be satisfied if Gerrit Cole's first nine years as a Yankee played out like Sabathia's first nine years. He'd be a key member of a World Series team and multiple other postseason teams, and be an above-average to elite pitcher most of the time. That works for me. I suspect the public at large would consider it underwhelming.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Paul asks: Am I the only one who thinks Stanton will be the regular LF next year? Why are so many outlets assuming he's the DH? Any idea how the Yankees view him? What happened to make people think he can't play in the field?

You are not the only person who thinks that. In fact, Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in as the regular left fielder right now. The alternative is who, Mike Tauchman? He's a big regression candidate given his underwhelming contact quality (.364 wOBA vs. .323 xwOBA) and there's no way his defense made him truly worth +4 WAR in 87 games. Sample size noise. 100%.

At times it feels like the Yankees would rather play with two outfielders and five infielders than put Clint Frazier in the lineup, so yeah, Stanton is the left fielder, either right out of the chute or once Tauchman plays his way out of the lineup. There are no other big league outfield candidates in the organization right now with Aaron Hicks hurt.

Stanton misplayed two balls in left field in his first Spring Training game at the position and that was it. Some folks decided he was a bad defender right then and there and there's nothing anyone can say to convince them otherwise. There's no point in trying. Stanton is a solid defender though and I'm comfortable with him in left field.

The reason to use Stanton as the primary DH is health, not defense, and if the Yankees are not comfortable playing him in the outfield full-time, then they better acquire an outfielder this winter, or commit to playing Frazier. A team that fancies itself a World Series contender shouldn't go into the season counting on Tauchman as an everyday guy. 

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)