December 3rd, 2019: Cole & Strasburg, Didi, Treinen, Profar, Non-Tenders, Hill, Backup Catcher, Minors, Misc.

Hope you all enjoyed Thanksgiving. Last week I said Didi Gregorius would be signed by time this post rolled around and lol at that. Shows what I know. If you're batting 1.000 in this game, you're not taking enough swings. Better luck next time. Here are today's thoughts as I hope for more crazy fun baseball things like a team signing Mike Moustakas to play second base until he's 35.

1. Cole and Strasburg meetings. The Yankees will meet with Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg in California in the coming days, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd). He adds the Yankees are "again making (Cole) a priority," and notes it's possible either Cole or Strasburg will sign during the Winter Meetings next week. Seeing how he is a Scott Boras client and the best free agent on the market, I'd bet on Cole's free agency dragging out into January. That's what Boras does. He moves slowly with his top client each winter. Anyway, this Rosenthal report isn't really news aside from giving us a timetable for the Yankees to meet with the two pitchers. They were always going to sit down with Cole and Strasburg at some point, same way they sat down with Patrick Corbin and Manny Machado last winter. It's due diligence as much as anything. It would've been much more newsworthy if the Yankees were not going to meet with Cole and Strasburg. During a pre-taped YES Network interview last night, Hal Steinbrenner said the Yankees don't want to go above the $248M third luxury threshold next season -- "It’s something we would prefer not to do. There are June draft ramifications. There are numerous ramifications," he said (video link) -- and, realistically, there's no way the Yankees could sign Cole or Strasburg and stay under that third threshold without shedding money elsewhere (J.A. Happ salary dump?), and even then they'd have little room to do anything else (re-sign Brett Gardner, re-sign or replace Didi Gregorius, etc.). The x-factor is the Jacoby Ellsbury grievance. It's possible Ellsbury did in fact break the terms of his contract and the Collective Bargaining Agreement, in which case the Yankees can avoid paying him the $26M they owe him next year. That would presumably free up a big chunk of luxury tax payroll. Well, whatever. Point is, the Yankees will meet with Cole and Strasburg in the coming days, and chances are they will meet with other free agent pitchers (Zack Wheeler? Madison Bumgarner?) at some point too. Rosenthal's report is confirmation of something I expected to happen and I don't think it means the two sides are any closer to a deal today than they were a month ago. It's just part of the process.

UPDATE: Joel Sherman reports the Yankees are meeting with Cole today and Strasburg tomorrow. Brian Cashman, Aaron Boone, and new pitching coach Matt Blake are on the trip. I assume the meetings will take place at Boras' office in Newport Beach (Strasburg lives in Washington DC year-round and he's probably meeting with several teams this week rather than fly all the way out there for one meeting.) I will say the reports about the Yankees and Cole are more intense than last year's reports regarding Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. It's similar to 2007 and 2008. In 2007, the Yankees wanted Johan Santana, but they weren't all the way in, similar to Machado and Harper last year. In 2008, they aggressively pursued CC Sabathia, and the reports about Cole indicate their interest in more sincere.

2. Moustakas signing. In all seriousness, good for Mike Moustakas for finally getting that big multi-year contract after settling for one-year deals the last two offseasons. I don't love it from a baseball perspective -- are we even allowed to say that anymore after begging teams to #DoSomething the last two offseasons? -- but I understand it. The Reds had a sneaky bad offense last year, ranking 25th in runs per game (4.33) even though Eugenio Suarez hit 49 home runs, and Moustakas gives them a little more thump. The NL Central is the worst division in baseball and there for the taking. Props to the Reds for trying. It's sad that a team stands out when it tries. Anyway, the Moustakas signing is relevant to the Yankees because it presumably takes the Reds out of the running for Didi Gregorius. They had been connected him to him earlier this offseason. Cot's Baseball Contracts has Cincinnati's projected 2020 payroll at $118M at the moment, a tick below last year's franchise record $127M payroll, and they still need at least one outfielder and bullpen help. Spending another $15M or so per year on another infielder doesn't seem likely. Not with Suarez at third, Moustakas at second, Freddy Galvis at short, and Joey Votto at first. The Reds figure to spend their remaining money on an outfielder and more pitching, not another infielder. One fewer suitor for Sir Didi is good news for the Yankees. Joe Girardi's Phillies loom as Gregorius competition, plus other teams could always jump into the mix, but right now I think it's safe to assume the Reds are out of the running. They added their infielder in Moustakas yesterday and will now focus on the rest of their roster. (The Reds non-tendered Jose Peraza yesterday and he is pretty, pretty bad. I don't see him as a realistic alternative to Gregorius for the Yankees. Now watch them sign him and turn him into a 25-homer guy who slugs .530 next year.) 

3. Treinen rumor. Over the weekend Ken Rosenthal reported the Yankees were among the teams with trade interest in former Athletics closer Blake Treinen, who was non-tendered last night. He was projected to make just under $8M in his final season of arbitration. Seems to me the Athletics engaged the Yankees (and other teams) on Treinen rather than the other way around, because if the Yankees (or another team) offered anything for him, the A's would've taken it rather than non-tender him. A Double-A swingman or low minors lottery ticket is better than nothing. Treinen was arguably the best reliever in baseball a year ago. He was marvelous. This year he struggled with his command and went down with a season-ending back injury in September. The numbers:

2018 Treinen and 2019 Treinen were very different pitchers and, compared to the rest of his career, 2018 is the outlier. No one realistically expects him to be that good again, but being a high-leverage option following the back injury and with his 32nd birthday coming up might be too much the ask. The Yankees could pursue Treinen as a reclamation project free agent now, but I would prefer Dellin Betances. They're both buy low types but Dellin has a much better track record and we know he can pitch in New York and handle everything that comes with that. Assuming the money winds up being similar (a big assumption, I know), I want Betances back over bringing Treinen aboard. The easiest solution? Sign both! Not gonna happen, I know, but a man can dream. Dellin should be Plan A and Treinen should be Plan B. With the free agent reliever market already thinned out, I think it's telling no team offered up anything worthwhile to acquire Treinen on a one-year contract worth $8M or so. The medicals and underlying data must not be encouraging. (Treinen is maybe the most personable player I've spoken to during my time at CBS. He's smart, funny, insightful, and just an all-around likeable dude. I reckon he'd fit well in any clubhouse.)

4. Profar trade. I was planning to write something on Jurickson Profar today had he been non-tendered prior to last night's deadline, but alas. The Athletics instead traded him to the Padres for catcher Austin Allen, who I wrote about as a possible backup catcher target recently. Padres GM A.J. Preller originally signed Profar when he was the Rangers international scouting director back in the day, and he's tried to acquire him multiple times in the past (most notably during Justin Upton trade talks in Dec. 2014), so it is in no way surprising he landed in San Diego. The Yankees expressed interest in Profar many times over the years and I thought they may pursue him as a possible Didi Gregorius replacement. Now it's not possible. Profar had an awful 2019 season with Oakland, hitting .218/.301/.410 (89 wRC+) and developing the yips, so he now throws like this:

That is ... not great. It's not great. It would be difficult to expect Profar to play short, even on a part-time basis, when he has to throw like that just to be accurate from second base. His offensive profile is unusual because he's posted league average-ish ground ball (42.7%) and hard-hit (37.5%) rates the last two years, yet his .245 BABIP is fourth lowest in baseball, alongside plodders like Albert Pujols and Edwin Encarnacion. Glad I don't have to try to make sense of it now. Profar is still only 26 (27 in February) and he did have a good second half this past season (.228/.342/.479 and 119 wRC+), plus the plate discipline numbers are still really good (14.5% strikeouts, 9.4% walks, 29.0% chase), so it's pretty easy to talk yourself into this being the year he figures it out. It wasn't that long ago that he was the best prospect in baseball, and the guy did hit .254/.335/.458 (107 wRC+) in 2018, so we've seen him be productive in the recent past. Last winter Profar was the position player centerpiece of the RAB Offseason Plan (oy vey). This offseason, I would've been mildly intrigued had he been non-tendered, but not really pushing for the Yankees to sign him. Oh well. Guess we don't have to talk about him now. (I also had an entire blurb written on Jonathan Villar and I swear the Orioles traded him to Marlins no more than two minutes after I typed the final sentence.)

5. Non-tenders. Teams continue to squeeze baseball's middle class in arbitration. Over the last few years every team adopted the file-and-trial approach (once the two sides submit salary arbitration figures, the team cuts off negotiations and goes to a hearing, putting pressure on the player to sign early), which looks at least little bit collusive. Fifty-three players were non-tendered yesterday (the Yankees didn't non-tender anyone, as expected). Last year 42 players were non-tendered. The year before that it was 25 players. The best way to suppress arbitration salaries -- something teams celebrate with a championship belt -- is to not pay them, and the best way to suppress free agent salaries is to flood the market. Both were accomplished yesterday. Anyway, as is the case every offseason, several players were non-tendered this year who could interest the Yankees. There's Blake Treinen, who we already discussed. The Giants non-tendered Kevin Pillar and I supposed we should consider him an alternative to Brett Gardner, but come on, we all know Gardner is coming back. I'm surprised it hasn't happened already. The Diamondbacks non-tendered Taijuan Walker and I've seen fans of pretty much every team say their team should sign him. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery -- he did get into one game this past September -- and I think the non-tender tells us Arizona is not happy with his rehab. They probably would've kept him at his projected $5M salary if they felt he were able to contribute in a meaningful way next year. The Astros non-tendered Aaron Sanchez and I've been a Sanchez fan for a while. Dude has nasty, nasty stuff. He also had shoulder surgery in September and will miss the start of next season. I'd be totally cool with bringing him aboard on something like a one-year deal worth $2M with a club option for 2021. He's worth a roll of the dice, though that may be my personal bias speaking. Cesar Hernandez is a pesky little ballplayer who is probably the best Didi Gregorius alternative on the market, depending how comfortable you are with his ability to fill in at shortstop. I haven't seen him play the position enough to form an opinion, but he's solid at second base. The Yankees could use another left-handed bat but I'm not sure how Travis Shaw, a corner infielder who can occasionally fake second base, fits the roster. The Yankees have depth at those positions. He'll look for more playing time elsewhere. Former Padres righty Pedro Avila is a little like Adam Warren. Three pitches, not overpowering, knows what he's doing on the mound, etc. Avila will miss next season as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, but I think he's worth stashing on a minor league deal, or even on the 60-day injured list once Spring Training rolls around. Several backup catcher candidates were non-tendered (Elias Diaz, John Ryan Murphy, Kevin Plawecki, Kevan Smith, etc.), all of whom elicit a great big meh. Plawecki rates very well as a pitch-framer and the Yankees are all about pitch-framing, and he has some pop. I could see them bringing him in as a non-roster guy to compete with Kyle Higashioka in Spring Training. Kevin Gausman? Jimmy Nelson? Tyler Anderson? Junior Guerra? I could be talked into any of those guys being worth a low base salary one-year contract. Generally speaking, non-tenders are more hype than production. All these recognizable names hit the market and everyone wants to sign them, but there's a reason these guys got non-tendered. They're all really flawed in some way. It's not often a player goes from non-tender to key contributor on a contending team. A bunch of players joined the free agent market last night and that's an opportunity for the Yankees to add depth, and depth is important. We learned that the hard way this past season. Treinen is probably the only non-tender with a chance to be a true difference-maker next year, and even he is far from a lock.

6. Hill rumor. Tim, not Rich. According to Mark Feinsand, the Yankees are "chief among" the teams with trade interest in Royals southpaw Tim Hill. Hill, 30 in February, is a late-blooming former 32nd round pick who threw 39.2 innings with a 3.63 ERA (3.84 FIP) and good enough strikeout (24.2%) and walk (8.1%) rates in 2019. Kansas City used him as a true left-on-left matchup guy -- Hill threw those 39.2 innings in 46 appearances and only 21 times in those 46 appearances did he throw a full inning -- and everything about him say that's the right move. He's been much better against lefties (.239 wOBA) than righties (.326 wOBA) in his two-year big league career, he's a fastball/slider guy with below-average velocity, and he throws from a funky arm angle:

It doesn't get much more LOOGY than that. I have three thoughts on Hill. One, my hunch is the Yankees like his ground ball ability. His 59.8% ground ball rate is 10th best among the 393 pitchers who've thrown at least 80 innings the last two years. Hill uses a low-spin sinker as his primary fastball (low spin is good for a sinker because it creates tumbling action) and he generally keeps it down in the zone ...

... so the equipment is there to keep getting ground balls. In this dinger happy era (and in home run happy Yankee Stadium), keeping the ball on the ground is a valuable skill. Two, I think the Yankees see Hill as a marginal upgrade more than a must have because he's the next great reliever or something like that. He has two minor league options remaining and it could be the Yankees would rather have him as the 39th or 40th man on the 40-man roster than someone like Chance Adams or post-shoulder injury Jonathan Holder. I don't think this is one of those "buy low on a talented player and hope he breaks out with some tweaks and patience" guys. If the Yankees can get him cheap, they will. If not, eh, no big deal. And three, the three-batter minimum rule is set to kick in next season and that will limit the usefulness of left-on-left matchup guys like Hill. You can't bring him in to face that one key lefty in a big spot. You have to leave him in for at least three batters, and that likely means facing a righty at some point. Maybe the Yankees believe Hill can be more effective against righties with a few tweaks (more sinkers? dunno). Generally speaking though, matchup relievers like Hill are being legislated right out of the game. The guess here is this becomes one of those rumors that catches our interest for a little while but doesn't lead to anything and eventually falls by the wayside. We see countless rumors like that every offseason. Hill's ground ball ability and funky arm angle are interesting enough. Other than that, meh.

7. Catcher market. If the Yankees are going to sign a catcher to replace Austin Romine, they will probably have to do it soon. Already six catchers have signed guaranteed Major League contracts as free agents this offseason (Travis d'Arnaud, Tyler Flowers, Dustin Garneau, Yan Gomes, Yasmani Grandal, Stephen Vogt), three fewer than all other positions combined. The best remaining free agent catchers by projected 2020 WAR:

1. Jason Castro: +1.7 WAR
2. Alex Avila: +1.4 WAR
3. Martin Maldonado: +1.2 WAR
4. Russell Martin: +0.9 WAR
5. Francisco Cervelli: +0.8 WAR

Castro is in line for something between d'Arnaud (two years and $18M) and Gomes (two years and $10M) money, Maldonado a tick below that, and Avila is a $5M a year player. I can't see the Yankees spending that much on a backup catcher. You could easily argue they should because Gary Sanchez is good for an injured list stint or two each year. I just can't see it happening. As best I can tell, Jose Molina was the highest paid backup catcher in franchise history at $2.125M in 2009. It is not a position the Yankees have spent money on, historically, and I believe that will continue. With the top catchers having all signed already, it won't be long before the second and third tier free agent backstops come off the board. Waiting out the free agent market to get a good value deal has been a sound strategy the last two or three offseasons. I'm not sure catching is the place to do it this winter though. These guys are in demand and signing quick. If the Yankees want an established big league backup catcher behind Sanchez next year, they'll need to act soon. My hunch is that, unless Romine is willing to come back on a sweetheart deal (two years and $4M?), the Yankees are completely comfortable with Higashioka backing up Sanchez, and will only bring in a non-roster type as depth, someone like, say, pitch-framing extraordinaire Rene Rivera or Triple-A Scranton incumbent Erik Kratz. Expending a lot of resources (money and/or trade chips), relatively speaking, to get a backup catcher isn't going to happen. That's not how the Yankees operate. They'd sooner trade a spare part for some other team's Chris Stewart than bring in a big name to back up Sanchez.

8. Minor league contraction. A few weeks ago word got out that MLB is looking to revamp the minors in the next Professional Baseball Agreement, the contract between MLB and minor league teams. The PBA expires after next season. Specifically, MLB wants to shuffle the various minor leagues so they make more sense geographically (good!) and also eliminate the short season leagues and as many as 42 minor league teams (bad!). According to Michael Silverman, MLB's proposal earlier this year identified 13 minor league teams that would cease operations and 29 that would lose their MLB affiliation. The Staten Island Yankees are among those 29 teams. As part of MLB's proposal, Staten Island and 10 other current minor league teams would form the Dream League, which is essentially an MLB sanctioned independent league for undrafted players each year. (The other 18 teams that lose their MLB affiliation would become summer collegiate teams under MLB's proposal.) Last month the SI Yanks released a statement essentially saying nothing has been finalized and their facilities meet MLB's standards. Randy Levine released the following statement later that week:

“We are here at the Major League Baseball owners meetings. There are negotiations currently taking place between Major League Baseball and Minor League Baseball. We have been assured today that there have been no decisions made regarding the elimination of the Staten Island Yankees. We support the Staten Island Yankees and their facility, and people should give the negotiations a chance to conclude before speculating on any outcome.”  

Pretty worthless statement, really. This entire minor league overhaul is designed to save the owners money -- they're tired of subsidizing minor league teams by paying salaries (players and coaches) and other expenses (TrackMan, etc.) without getting a cut of the profits -- and the Yankees will 100% hang the Staten Island franchise out to dry if it saves them money. Minor league franchises aren't happy about all this and I mean all of them, not just the 42 that would either be eliminated or lose their MLB affiliation. As J.J. Cooper (subs. req'd) explains, "the minute it becomes established that (Player Development Contracts and MLB affiliations) can be eliminated, the value of the remaining MiLB teams will also plummet, because what has been seen as a permanent right will become a temporary one." Also, Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) notes Staten Island (and surely other minor league teams on the chopping block) have business contracts and partnerships to fulfill, which are now in jeopardy. Imagine trying to sell ad space when your franchise might not exist in a year, or may no longer be affiliated with the Yankees? Just the threat of contraction hurts. Several members of Congress sent MLB a letter urging the league to reconsider their minor league contraction plan and "reminding them Congress has the power to reconsider the league’s antitrust exemption," according to the Pat Eaton-Robb, and you're going to have to give me a minute to stop laughing. 

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Okay, good now. Sorry about that. Said Congress members only care about the minor league contraction plan because ... wait for it ... many politicians own minor league teams and don't want the value of their franchises to drop. They had no trouble selling out minor leaguers last year when they passed the shamefully named "Save America's Pastime Act," allowing teams to consider minor leaguers seasonal employees and thus pay them below minimum wage. Now I'm supposed to believe these same politicians truly care about these minor league franchises? Please. Their faux-outrage is nothing a few political donations can't solve. I'm going to tell you right now exactly what will happen: MLB will scale back on its proposal, work out a shorter term PBA (they usually run 10 years, so maybe five years this time), take a few small bites rather than eat the entire cake (turn one minor league into the Dream League?), and be hailed as the good guy for saving minor league baseball. They will take credit for solving the problem even though they created the problem by proposing extensive contraction in the first place. And, when the shorter PBA expires in a few years, they'll do it again and take more bites, and then more bites in the PBA after that, and on and on we go. Minor league teams have little leverage here but I do think they have the public on their side, which will prevent MLB from strong-arming them into sweeping changes all at once. These things take time. The owners wanted a salary cap back in 1994 and instead had to chip away over several Collective Bargaining Agreements to get the luxury tax to a point where it acts like a salary cap. We know the endgame: MLB wants to eliminate a big chunk of the minors to save money. They told us that much. It won't happen all at once though. It'll be a drawn out process, but it will happen. The wheels are in motion and I don't see how the train can be stopped now.

9. Rapid fire thoughts. Greg Bird cleared waivers last week and elected free agency rather than remain with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. That right there tells you Bird will seek a 40-man spot this offseason -- he just might get it (Blue Jays? Red Sox? Royals?) -- and a clearer path to MLB at-bats. Sucks he didn't work out. At this point, I'm just glad we can move on and stop hoping/pretending this might be the year Bird stays healthy and hits ... the Yankees traded Nestor Cortes to the Mariners for $28,300 in international bonus pool space last week, which was all Seattle had left to trade according to the Associated Press. It's a win-win trade. A win-win-win trade, really. Cortes gets a good opportunity with a rebuilding team, the Mariners get a depth arm, and the Yankees get something rather than nothing for a fringe 40-man roster player who had been designated for assignment ... postseason shares were announced last week and the Yankees took home just over $9.7M for losing the ALCS. They voted 71 full shares ($114,367.19 apiece) plus 13.7 partial shares and seven cash awards. That is easily the most full shares given out this year (the Braves were second with 63). Last year the Yankees issued 45 full shares, the fewest among the 10 postseason teams, and for whatever reason it was pinned on outgoing free agent David Robertson even though the entire team votes on postseason shares. At least Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius don't have to worry about that being blamed on them on their way out the door ... the minimum salary will be $563,500 next season according to the Associated Press, up from $555,000 this year. The minimum salary increased $10,000 each of the last three years per the terms of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, but this year the $8,500 raise was calculated by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers per the CBA (they'll do it again next year). It is becoming comical how much the MLBPA ceded to the owners. I get that the calculation could've favored the players, but why not at least get a minimum $10,000 raise in writing for all five years covered by the CBA? Is that really something the owners would've considered a dealbreaker? ... Buster Olney (subs. req'd) reports MLB is "leaning toward" altering the pickoff move rule, specifically by making lefties step off the rubber before throwing to first base, similar to righties. That would've made Andy Pettitte's famed pickoff move illegal. The rule change, if it happens, could result in larger leads and a few more stolen bases, but I don't think the overall impact will be significant. Individually, some lefties with a great pickoff move (Patrick Corbin and Blake Snell jump to mind) will lose a potential weapon against baserunners, but the overall impact around the league probably won't be much. This potential rule change gets a shrug from me. I don't think it'll change much and we might only barely notice it ... Jon Heyman reports another injured list change is coming next year. Position players will have a 10-day injured list but pitchers will have a 15-day injured list. MLB wants to cut down on roster manipulation -- the Dodgers, the most obvious and egregious injured list abusers, like to give their starters a little 10-day breather at midseason -- and this could help. I just hope this doesn't lead to more "play shorthanded for eight days because this guy is a little banged up, but not bad enough to miss two weeks" situations. Those drive me nuts ... Jared Diamond and Louise Radnofsky (subs. req'd) report MLB and the MLBPA are working on an agreement that would begin random drug testing for opioids, and they hope to have a deal done before the end of the year. This comes after Angels lefty Tyler Skaggs was found dead in the team hotel with a mixture of alcohol and opioids in his system earlier this year. (Officially, he died because he choked on his vomit.) A few weeks ago an Angels employee told DEA agents he provided Skaggs with opioids for years. The employee would get the drugs for Skaggs and himself, and Skaggs would pay for it all. I'm glad MLB and the MLBPA are working on this, and I hope any player who gets caught is put into a treatment program rather than be suspended. Opioid abuse is serious and dangerous stuff. Help the player, don't punish him ... given all the Astros cheating stuff going on, I recently thought back to Chris Correa, the Cardinals employee who went to prison for what amounted to corporate espionage after hacking into Houston's proprietary database. Correa said he only did it because the Astros hacked the Cardinals first, which sounded like a dumb defense at the time, but maybe? Doesn't justify what Correa did, of course, but maybe that really was more than a dumb excuse. Wouldn't that be something.

(Send your questions for the Friday mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)