November 26th, 2019: Ellsbury, Happ, Hill, Roster Check-In, Granite, Hall of Fame, Balkovec, Mailbag

As a reminder, I am going to skip this Friday's regularly scheduled post because it is the day after Thanksgiving. I will of course cover any breaking news, otherwise I'm going to enjoy the long holiday weekend, and I hope you do the same. I will bet you five internet dollars that Didi Gregorius signs (not necessarily with the Yankees) before the next post. The best free agents at premium positions (i.e. Yasmani Grandal and Travis d'Arnaud) are signing quickly and Sir Didi is easily the best free agent middle infielder. I bet he signs soon. I hope it's back with the Yankees. Anyway, here are today's thoughts. Have a great Thanksgiving.

1. The Ellsbury grievance. Soon after Jacoby Ellsbury was released last week, Ken Davidoff and George King reported the Yankees will not pay Ellsbury the $26M they owe him next season ($21M salary plus $5M buyout of his 2021 option). More precisely, they will convert the contract from guaranteed to non-guaranteed because they claim Ellsbury received medical treatment at the Progressive Medical Center in Atlanta without their permission. As you'd expect, the MLBPA is furious and came to Ellsbury's defense -- "The Players Association will vigorously defend any action taken against Jacoby or his contract and is investigating potential contract violations by his employer," the union said in a statement -- and the next step now is Ellsbury's agent, Scott Boras, filing a grievance. If the two sides can't settle, the case will go to an independent arbitrator. Apparently the Yankees claim Ellsbury received treatment at the Progressive Medical Center for years, so it is possible more than next year's $26M is in play here. They might be able to recoup salary already paid to him (I have no idea how that would work with the insurance payments the Yankees reportedly received, so don't ask). Article XIII(G)(2)(a) of the Collective Bargaining Agreement covers medical treatment by a health care provider not affiliated with the club. The relevant part:

A Player shall provide his Club with reasonable advance notice of any treatment conducted by a health care provider in connection with a disability directly resulting from an injury sustained in the course and within the scope of his employment (including an elective procedure) (collectively referred to as a “Work-Related Injury”), unless such health care provider is affiliated with the Club. Any treatment a Player receives for a Work-Related Injury by a health care provider who is not affiliated with the Club must be authorized by the Club in advance of the treatment in accordance with Regulation 2 of the (Uniform Player Contract). If such treatment involves a surgery or invasive procedure, such authorization must be in writing.

A Player is not required to provide his Club with notice of a consultation or evaluation of a Work-Related Injury by a health care provider who is not affiliated with the Club provided that the Player: (i) receives no treatment in connection with the consultation or evaluation; (ii) does not submit to an invasive test or procedure; and (iii) is not invoking his right to a Second Medical Opinion under Section D of this Article. In addition, if such an evaluation or consultation was not authorized by the Club, the Club will not be responsible under Regulation 2 of the UPC for any expenses incurred by the Player in connection with it.

Long story short, the player must get the team's permission to receive medical treatment from a health care provider not affiliated with the team. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) reports the Yankees knew Ellsbury was being examined at Progressive Medical Center -- they even had the doctor acknowledge he knows MLB's banned substance list in writing -- but say they didn't know enough about what was going on, including "treatment the club believes might negatively have affected his rehabilitation from a series of injuries." I'm sure Ellsbury and Boras will claim either the Yankees did know everything, or they did not need to notify the Yankees because he received "no treatment in connection with the consultation or evaluation," and he did not "submit to an invasive test or procedure," as per the second paragraph above. A few things about this. One, the Yankees have every right to seek to convert Ellsbury's contract to non-guaranteed if he did in fact receive unauthorized medical treatment. It's not quite an apples to apples comparison, but the Yankees did terminate Aaron Boone's contract when he blew out his knee playing basketball back in the day. Break the terms of your contract and/or Collective Bargaining Agreement and the other side will take action. That's how it works. Two, this makes the Yankees look incredibly petty, even if they are within their rights to convert the contract to non-guaranteed. Ellsbury was a bad signing before the ink was dry and now the team looks vindictive. It looks bad, even if the Yankees are within their rights. Three, Boras does have a bit of a history when it comes to his clients getting medical treatment without the team's permission. Carlos Beltran had knee surgery back in 2010 without the Mets' consent. The team threatened legal action but eventually backed down. I guess they didn't have enough evidence to go forward? Four, do the Yankees have enough evidence to support their claim that whatever treatment Ellsbury received negatively impacted his rehab? I assume they have what they consider sufficient evidence. The Yankees are not stupid. They undoubtedly had their army of lawyers look things over and ensure their ducks are in a row. Five, this has a chance to get real ugly. Ellsbury is a high-profile player and you can be sure Boras and the union do not want such a large contract to be converted to non-guaranteed. That's not a precedent they want set and they will be vocal about it. Maybe the two sides agree to a settlement and this all goes away quietly, but I'm not counting on it. Six, I have no idea what this means for the luxury tax next year, or even prior years, for that matter. If the contract is indeed converted to non-guaranteed, I assume it won't count against next year's luxury tax payroll. Would the Yankees get a luxury tax credit (or even a refund?) for prior years if it's found Ellsbury received treatment in those years? Not sure. Seven, does this make the Yankees look less desirable to free agents, either now or in the future? It might, sure. In the end, the Yankees are still the Yankees, and money talks. I can't imagine Boras would steer his clients clear of the Yankees in the future given their financial might. I doubt this is the first time he's had an issue with a team over a player's medical treatment and it probably won't be the last time either. When you're in the business long enough, this stuff happens. And eight, I am on Ellsbury's side here. I hope he gets every dollar owed to him on that contract. It's not his fault the Yankees gave him that ridiculous deal -- what's he supposed to do, say no to that contract? -- and I hope they have to pay him every penny. When it comes to player vs. owner, I am going to side with the player pretty much every time. Something tells me we will hear about this plenty more in the coming weeks. This has the potential to become "Alex Rodriguez appealing his suspension in 2014" level drama.

2. Trading Happ. Okay, this qualifies as speculation more than a rumor, but Joel Sherman recently spoke to an executive who "suggested that the Yankees would try to attach a desirable second piece to (J.A.) Happ and trade him to a starter-hungry team" in order to clear money to sign Gerrit Cole. The Yankees can afford Happ and Cole, but that's another conversation for another time. We've seen the Yankees attach a young player to a veteran to unload a contract in the not-too-distant past -- I still can't believe the Padres took on the entire $13M owed to Chase Headley to get Bryan Mitchell -- and doing it again with Happ can't be ruled out. The Angels need pitching, the Phillies need pitching, the Twins need pitching, the White Sox need pitching (and apparently have money to spend this offseason), on and on we could go. Lots of teams need pitching, including the Yankees. The Yankees need better pitching though. Even if you chalk up the homers to the rocket ball, Happ's fastball velocity slipped this year (92.8 mph to 92.2 mph) and his strikeout rate went down (26.3% to 20.7%), and he turned 37 last month. In all likelihood the decline will continue next year because that's usually how it works with 37-year-olds who are closing in on 1,700 career big league innings. Happ was a +1.3 WAR pitcher this year and Steamer projects him at +1.7 WAR next year, which seems a little optimistic, but let's roll with it. Some available free agent pitchers who project in that same range, with their FanGraphs crowdsourcing contract projection:

• Kyle Gibson: +2.9 WAR (two years and $10M annually)
• Homer Bailey: +1.7 WAR (one year and $5M)
• Tanner Roark: +1.6 WAR (two years and $8M annually)
• Jordan Lyles: +1.5 WAR (two years and $6M annually)
• Wade Miley: +1.5 WAR (two years and $8M annually)

I'm not saying the Yankees should sign one of those players in particular. I'm just using them as examples of the caliber of pitcher we're talking about, and the appropriate contract for that pitcher. There are plenty of +1.5 WAR starters out there and most of them don't come with a $17M price tag like Happ. The Yankees want someone better than a +1.5 WAR pitcher, obviously, but the point is they could potentially unload Happ and redirect the money elsewhere, and replace him with a cheaper yet equally productive pitcher. There's risk involved, sure, but there is also risk in keeping a now 37-year-old Happ. Attaching a second piece to him to unload the contract seems worthwhile to me even if the Yankees don't have to do it to be able to afford Cole. The Yankees have a 40-man roster crunch this offseason and, rather than potentially lose someone like Albert Abreu or Chance Adams or Nick Nelson on waivers, or trade them for a non-40-man prospect, the Yankees could use them to unload Happ. I hate the idea of the Yankees trading young players to dump a contract, but that is the world we live in now, and, frankly, this might be the best way to use those young players. Not every prospect is going to work out or fetch something significant in a trade. Unload Happ, go all-out to sign Cole, then bring in a cheaper fifth starter option to replace Happ and chew up innings at a below-average-ish rate every five days. Someone's gonna do it. Might as well not be someone making $17M. (I weirdly like -- not love, like -- the idea of Bailey. He's finally healthy and he has his splitter back. How strongly do you believe Happ will out-pitch Bailey in 2020? Strong enough to keep him and his $17M salary?)

3. Pursuing Hill. Free agent left-hander Rich Hill will be out until next year's All-Star break. He underwent a Primary Revision surgery on his left elbow, which is a Tommy John surgery alternative that is less invasive and comes with a shorter rehab timetable. Hill turns 40 in March and Tommy John surgery almost certainly would've ended his career. I don't blame him for going with the Primary Revision option instead. (Not every ligament tear is a Primary Revision candidate.) It will sideline Hill through the first half of next season, however, and that will torpedo his free agent stock. I wonder whether that makes him an option for the Yankees. They could sign him to an incentive-laden one-year contract, let him rehab his elbow, then bring him back for the stretch run. Kinda like making an addition at the trade deadline without having to make a trade. Hill missed close to three months with a flexor strain this past season -- flexor strains are often a precursor to elbow problems and Tommy John surgery, so the Primary Revision surgery didn't come out of nowhere -- but he was very good when healthy. He made 13 starts and had a 2.45 ERA (4.10 FIP) with a 29.8% strikeout rate in 58.2 innings this year. Hill has had a ton of injuries in recent years, but, when he's been on the mound, he's been excellent. He bought into spin rates and improvement through analytics a few years ago ...

... and now he befuddles hitters with big breaking curveballs and different arm angles and grunts and all sorts of stuff. Hill is nothing if not fun to watch. Sign him, rehab him, and see whether he can help in the second half, even if he's only a short reliever. Would Hill go for it? Would he go for it with the Yankees? If he's going to do that, he might prefer to remain with the Dodgers, or go closer to home in Boston. Also, does it make sense for the Yankees? They have a 40-man roster crunch this winter and may not want to dedicate a spot to an injured player. I guess they could see whether Hill is still on the market once Spring Training opens and approach him then, when they can slide Aaron Hicks to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot (and then put Hill on the 60-day injured list to clear that 40-man spot again). I dunno. Just thinking out loud here. I like the idea of signing and stashing Hill for the second half, but it might not make sense given the 40-man roster situation, and there's a chance he doesn't contribute at all. The elbow surgery might be the end of the road. If the price is right -- what about $2M guaranteed with $5M in bonuses tied to innings and/or days on the active roster? -- it could work. It's easy to dream on Hill being a impact addition in August and September (and October) even if we know it's not all that likely. (Hill appeared in 14 games with the Yankees in 2014, so there is a bit of a history here.)

4. Roster check-in. The offseason is now in it's fourth full week and so far the Yankees haven't done anything other than unload some dead weight and add some prospects to the 40-man roster. I am surprised the Yankees have not re-signed Brett Gardner yet, but, overall, I'm not surprised the Yankees have had a quiet November. Most teams haven't done anything and even last year the Yankees waited to make most of their moves -- the James Paxton trade went down in November but the Zack Britton, DJ LeMahieu, and Adam Ottavino signings all happened in January -- plus Scott Boras represents most of the top free agents (Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, etc.), and Boras typically drags things out with his top clients. I know it's easy to get impatient, believe me I know, but the Yankees will start making moves soon enough. Four quiet weeks to begin the offseason is not the most surprising thing in the world. With that in mind, let's check in on the 2020 roster and see where things stand at the moment. Remember, it's a 26-man roster with 13 pitchers and 13 position players beginning next season.

All indications are Andujar's shoulder surgery rehab is going well -- he recently posted a workout video that showed him throwing with his repaired shoulder, so that's good -- and he will be ready to go come Spring Training, but we don't know that for sure just yet, and there's a chance he will begin next season on the injured list as he wraps up his rehab. In that case, I assume Estrada would take his roster spot. There is some flexibility with that roster (Estrada over Wade, Tarpley over Loaisiga, etc.), but, for the most part, that's the current roster. How many games does that team win as constructed in 2020? I think it's 90+, but there are also enough potential landmines (Happ, Tauchman, post-Tommy John surgery Montgomery, etc.) that things could break wrong and sink the season, which would be pretty much the exact opposite of this year, when all the replacements hit their best case scenario. Also, the Yankees don't have much position player depth on the 40-man roster. Estrada and Florial are the only 40-man roster position players in the minors and Florial's probably not contributing next year. I'd rather the Yankees not have to call him up in an emergency a la Melky Cabrera in 2005. When you lay out the roster like this, the needs become clear. The Yankees need a center fielder (it will almost certainly be Gardner), a high-end starter (Cole pls), a super utility type to bump Ford to Triple-A (Didi Gregorius pls), maybe a back-end innings guy depending what happens with Happ, someone to compete with or outright replace Higashioka at backup catcher, and I think there's a Betances-sized hole in the bullpen given the Cessa/Holder/Loaisiga trio. Not much has changed since the season ended -- we now know Greg Bird and Nestor Cortes are not 2020 roster options -- but it can be easy to lose sight of the big picture when nothing really happens day after day. That's the current roster, and the Yankees have about three months to get better before pitchers and catchers report to Tampa.

5. Granite signing. The Yankees have landed their first free agent of the offseason. Late last week Bob Nightengale reported the Yankees have signed Staten Island native Zack Granite to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training and a June 15th opt-out. A few weeks ago I noted the Yankees needed a center fielder for Triple-A Scranton, especially following the Aaron Hicks injury, and Granite is it. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add another center field type on a minor league deal, especially with Brett Gardner not yet re-signed. Granite, 27, spent time with the Twins two years ago -- he's the guy who missed first base in the 2017 Wild Card Game -- and is not much of a hitter at all. He hit .237/.321/.290 (68 wRC+) in 40 games with the Twins two years ago and .290/.331/.375 (73 wRC+) in 119 Triple-A games with the Rangers this past season. That's with the rocket ball in the Pacific Coast League, so yeah. Granite's not going to give you much at the plate. What he can do is play very good defense, run well (25 steals this year and a top 7% sprint speed with the Twins in 2017), and get the bat on the ball. Granite had the fifth lowest strikeout rate (8.3%) and the ninth lowest swing-and-miss rate (4.2%) among the 686 players with at least 400 minor league plate appearances this year. He's going to put the ball in play and run like hell, and save runs in the field. Every team makes depth pickups like this every offseason and there's usually not much to it. At this point though, we have to wonder whether the Yankees see something in Granite and have a plan to help him tap into his offensive potential. They did it with Gio Urshela, they did it with Mike Tauchman, they did it with Luke Voit. Hell, they did it with a veteran like Cameron Maybin too. Do it once or twice, and it's a fluke. Do it as often as the Yankees have the last few years, and it's an organizational skill. Maybe they can do something similar with Granite. Would be cool. I'm not counting on it, but we can't rule it out given the magic we've seen this team work with hitters the last few seasons. Either way, the Yankees have their depth Triple-A center fielder. That's one (small) item crossed off the to-do list.

6. Hall of Fame ballot. The 2020 Hall of Fame ballot was released last week and Derek Jeter is among the 18 players appearing on the ballot the first time. He will of course be voted in on the first ballot, maybe even unanimously after Mariano Rivera did it this year, and there's a decent chance Jeter will be the only player voted in by the BBWAA this year. (The Modern Era committee is bound to vote someone in.) Curt Schilling is on the ballot for the eighth time and received 60.9% of the vote last year. He could get over the 75% threshold this year, but I think he'll have to wait another year. More than one-third of the Hall of Fame ballot is former Yankees (11 of 32), which seems pretty high. Here are the 11 listed in order of WAR with the Yankees:

1. Derek Jeter: +72.4 WAR (all with Yankees, duh)
2. Andy Pettitte: +51.3 WAR (+60.6 career)
3. Jason Giambi: +22.1 WAR (+50.5 career)
4. Roger Clemens: +21.2 WAR (+138.7 career)
5. Alfonso Soriano: +10.4 WAR (+28.2 career)
6. Gary Sheffield: +8.7 WAR (+60.5 career)
7. Bobby Abreu: +7.0 WAR (+60.0 career)
8. Eric Chavez: +2.0 WAR (+37.5 career)
9. Brian Roberts: +1.4 WAR (+30.4 career)
10. Andruw Jones: +1.1 WAR (+62.8 career)
11. Raul Ibanez: +0.5 WAR (+20.4 career)

Clemens is not getting into the Hall of Fame despite overwhelming credentials. Like Barry Bonds, his support has stagnated in the upper-50% range the last few years, and it doesn't look like there's enough momentum to get over the 75% threshold before he falls off the ballot in two years. Pettitte was at 9.9% last year, his first year on the ballot, so he's nowhere close to induction. Larry Walker is entering his final year on the ballot and was at 54.6% last year. Historically, there is a bump in support in a player's final year on the ballot, but I'm not sure Walker gets in even with that. I was a small Hall of Fame guy once upon a time. Only the very best of the best, you know? Over the years I've evolved into a big Hall of Fame guy. More players in the Hall of Fame means more (and a greater variety of) fans will be invested in the Hall of Fame, and I think that's important. I'm not saying let anyone into Cooperstown -- Harold Baines getting voted in by the Today's Game committee last year was laughable -- but I'm cool with a bigger Hall of Fame. I don't think it cheapens anything and fans are smart enough to distinguish between the inner circle Hall of Famers (Babe Ruth, Tom Seaver, etc.) and the next tier down. Rockies fans have no connection to the Hall of Fame right now. Walker would give them one and I do think he's a worthy Hall of Famer. He's fifth in WAR among outfielders the last half-century ...

1. Barry Bonds: +162.4 WAR
2. Rickey Henderson: +110.8 WAR
3. Ken Griffey Jr.: +83.6 WAR
4. Reggie Jackson: +73.8 WAR
5. Larry Walker: +72.6 WAR
(6. Mike Trout: +72.5 WAR)

... and only 31% of his career plate appearances came in Coors Field. It's not like he did all his damage with the Rockies. Walker was a true five-tool player who could beat you with his bat, his legs, his glove, or his arm. He was so good and he would be the first Rockies player in the Hall of Fame. That would be a big deal to that fan base. Is Abreu a Hall of Famer? I don't think so, but he has an stathead case. He reached base more times than Tony Gwynn in fewer plate appearances, and is one of only four players in history with 500 doubles, 250 homers, and 400 stolen bases (Bonds, Henderson, and Craig Biggio also did it). For me, Abreu is a Hall of Very Good player rather than a Hall of Famer, but I'm willing to hear arguments. Jeter will get voted in this year, maybe unanimously, maybe by himself, and then it'll probably be a wait until the next Yankee. CC Sabathia just retired and is five years away from the Hall of Fame ballot, and he might not get in on the first (or second, or third) ballot. Alex Rodriguez joins the ballot in the three years, but I can't imagine he'll get in after serving a performance-enhancing drug suspension. Bonds and Clemens never tested positive or served a suspension or anything like that, and they still can't get into the Hall of Fame with their credentials. A-Rod admitted using PEDs and served the longest PED suspension in the sport's history. He's not getting in, at least not anytime soon. Robinson Cano? He'd surely go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee, but he also served a PED suspension, and I'll believe a player who served a PED suspension will get into the Hall of Fame when I see it. Also, Cano is still playing and has another four years remaining on his contract, so he's not joining the Hall of Fame ballot anytime soon. A-Rod and Cano are Hall of Fame long shots. After Jeter, the next player to go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee is probably Sabathia, and I don't think he's a lock to get in at all.

7. Yankees hire Balkovec. The Yankees made history earlier this month. The team has hired Rachel Balkovec as a minor league hitting coach, according to Lindsey Berra. Balkovec is believed to be the first female full-time hitting coach. "It’s an easy answer to why we chose Rachel for this role. She’s a good hitting coach, and a good coach, period,” minor league hitting coordinator Dillon Lawson told Berra. I'm not sure which minor league level Balkovec will be assigned -- they Yankees presumably know already, but those assignments usually are not announced until January -- but I believe it'll be one of the four full season affiliates. Prior to joining the Yankees, Balkovec worked with the Astros and Cardinals as a strength and conditioning coach, and more recently with Driveline Baseball, the data-driven independent training center near Seattle. She also was a catcher at two Division I softball programs, has two master's degrees in the science of human movement, and she taught herself Spanish to better communicate with players. You won't find many rookie minor league hitting coaches with a better resume. From Berra:

“I knew my passion was shifting from solely strength and conditioning to a more global view of the game, and I wanted to be able to have a bigger impact on player development by helping them get better from a scientific perspective,” Balkovec said. “It’s obvious the direction in which the game is headed, and I knew getting a better grasp of the research and analytics side of things would only be beneficial for my future in baseball.” 

...

“During the interview process, I was blown away by the Yankees hitting staff,” she said. “They are making aggressive operational changes to compete in the rapidly changing landscape of player development.” 

I can not imagine how difficult it must be to break into a male-dominated sport like baseball as a woman. Suzyn Waldman has dealt with all sorts of abuse throughout her career. There was a ton of fan backlash when ESPN added Jessica Mendoza to their broadcast team, sadly and predictably, and when we passed along Berra's article about Baldovec's hire on the RAB Twitter account, there were dopes in replies saying it was an affirmative action hire and garbage like that. As I said, sad and predictable. The Yankees have been at the forefront of MLB's effort to improve diversity -- Brian Cashman hired Kim Ng and Jean Afterman as assistant general managers, two of only three women to climb that high in a front office -- and, based on the little I know, Baldovec is smart and qualified. The Yankees wouldn't hire her otherwise. I'm certain she will deal with headaches along the way because men can be jerks -- I'm sure she's dealt with them already during her time with the Astros and Cardinals -- but the Yankees hired her to be a key member of their revamped player development system. I hope other teams follow in their footsteps and we one day get to look back at Baldovec as a trailblazer. "When you work with Rachel as a player or a coach, it’s clearly apparent that her investment in you and in her expertise in the field is only going to make you better. It may be initially different because she’s a woman, but you quickly realize that she is simply an elite coach and you see her for that," Lawson said.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Ryan asks: Baseball genie is allowing you to determine Jasson Dominguez's future. Option 1: 50% chance of becoming Mike Trout or flaming out before AA and the Yankees not trading him or Option 2: 100% chance becoming Bryce Harper? Which one do you chose? 

Since there's not going to be a Friday post this week, I figured I'd answer a mailbag question today instead. Anyway, I have to take Option 2 in this scenario. Harper is really, really good! Let me remind you of his age 19-25 seasons, his six years of team control (well, 6.75 years since the Nationals gamed his service time):

• Age 19: 22 HR, 121 wRC+, +4.4 WAR in 139 games
• Age 20: 20 HR, 137 wRC+, +4.1 WAR in 118 games
• Age 21: 15 HR, 115 wRC+, +1.6 WAR in 100 games
• Age 22: 42 HR, 197 wRC+, +9.3 WAR in 153 games
• Age 23: 24 HR, 111 wRC+, +2.9 WAR in 147 games
• Age 24: 29 HR, 155 wRC+, +4.8 WAR in 111 games
• Age 25: 34 HR, 134 wRC+, +3.4 WAR in 159 games

That is 184 homers with a 140 wRC+ and +28.5 WAR from ages 19-25. Only 38 players ever have put up +28 WAR before their 26th birthday and only 14 of those 38 have done it in the last 50 years. Harper would be an incredible outcome for Dominguez.

Trout is on another level -- he is already an inner circle Hall of Famer as far as I'm concerned -- but I only have a 50% chance at that greatness, so I'm taking the sure thing in Brysson Harpminguez. I'd hate myself if he busted and I passed up a shot at Harper production.

UPDATE: I changed my mind. I'd rather have the 50/50 chance at Trout. Here's my reasoning.

(Send your questions for the weekly Friday mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)