Thoughts following the 2019 Rule 5 Draft protection deadline

The Rule 5 Draft protection deadline came and went Wednesday night and the Yankees made a flurry of roster moves, as is the case every year. The Yankees added seven prospects to the 40-man roster and cleared three spots (they had four open 40-man spots going into the deadline). Here are the moves and my thoughts:

• Added OF Estevan Florial, RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Brooks Kriske, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Nick Nelson, and RHP Miguel Yajure to the 40-man roster.
• Designated 1B Greg Bird and LHP Nestor Cortes for assignment.
• Released OF Jacoby Ellsbury.

1. Ellsbury released. The end of an error. Jacoby Ellsbury goes down as the worst free agent signing in Yankees history, in my opinion. It's either Ellsbury, Carl Pavano, or Kei Igawa, and the Yankees paid a combined $85.95M for Pavano and Igawa (including Igawa's posting fee), which is a little more than half the $153M they gave Ellsbury. Seriously, Pavano was the 16th highest paid pitcher in baseball the first year of his contract. Ellsbury was fourth highest paid outfielder in baseball in 2019. What a disaster. Ellsbury hit .265/.330/.386 (96 wRC+) as a Yankee and appeared in only 520 of 1,134 possible regular season games during his seven-year contract, and he started only four of the 14 postseason games he was on the roster for, all at DH. Ellsbury's final act as a Yankee -- and very likely the final act of his MLB career -- was pinch-running for Chase Headley and scoring on this Aaron Judge double in Game 4 of the 2017 ALCS. The Yankees still owe Ellsbury $21M in salary next year plus the $5M buyout of his 2021 club option, and, according to Ken Davidoff and George King, the Yankees do not have insurance on that 2020 season. That explains the release. There's no reason to keep him around now. Ellsbury was always going to count in full against the luxury tax payroll next year ($21.86M), there's no more insurance money coming in, and he's not going to help on the field -- "Right now, he’s not someone in a position health-wise where I can answer anything in the affirmative," Brian Cashman said about Ellsbury during his end-of-season press conference last month -- so give the roster spot to someone else. The money is a sunk cost. The Yankees have to pay that no matter what. They could have either kept Ellsbury around and hoped he got healthy and could contribute as a soon-to-be 36-year-old speed guy who hasn't played in two years and is coming back from major hip surgery, or move on. And they moved on, rightfully so. Subtract out what they reportedly recouped through insurance the last two years, and the Yankees will ultimately pay Ellsbury approximately $121.5M for one (1) good season (2014) and +9.8 bWAR and +8.1 fWAR. I didn't understand the signing at the time and I don't think I ever will. The Yankees overrated Ellsbury's upside -- I have to think they believed he had few more 2011 caliber seasons in him -- and his ability to stay healthy, and overvalued how much his success in Boston's pressure cooker would translate to New York. And they were desperate after losing Robinson Cano. Free agent contracts don't get much worse than this.

2. Bird designated. I didn't think the Yankees would actually go through with it. They've made it pretty clear over the years that they love Greg Bird, and I thought that would buy him yet another opportunity in 2020. His projected arbitration salary is not exorbitant ($1.3M) and he has a minor league option remaining (three, actually), so the Yankees could have easily sent him to Triple-A next season and given him another chance to stay healthy and show he could contribute in some way. This is the reality of Greg Bird though:

• Played only 140 of 638 possible regular season games from 2016-19.
• Hit .194/.287/.388 (82 wRC+) with -0.3 fWAR and -0.8 bWAR in those 140 games.
• One shoulder surgery and two surgeries on the same ankle since 2016.
• Only two years of team control remaining.

We all remember that big 2015 debut, and of course we all remember the season-saving homer in the 2017 ALDS, but we now have four years worth of evidence telling us Bird's body can not handle the rigors of big league baseball, and that he's not going to produce much even when he is on the field. It's a harsh reality but it is reality. The Yankees have a really good first baseman in Luke Voit -- Voit has hit .280/.384/.517 (141 wRC+) with 35 homers in 157 games with the Yankees, and that includes his sluggish finish to this past season following the sports hernia -- and a depth option in Mike Ford who does everything a healthy Bird can do (walk and hit homers from the left side, play crummy defense, run the bases poorly), but is cheaper and healthier. You don't need any more first basemen on the 40-man roster than that -- remember, DJ LeMahieu can play first base if necessary, and Miguel Andujar might wind up there too -- and cutting the injury prone guy who hasn't hit even when healthy is an obvious move. It's a bummer Bird didn't work out, but what can you do? That's baseball. Sometimes talented players get hurt and don't work out. The Yankees now have seven days to trade, release, or waive Bird and I think there's a chance he clears waivers and remains in the organization as a non-40-man roster player*. One-dimensional first base/DH types are not a hot commodity, especially when they're this injury prone, and Bird has that $1.3M or so coming to him next year. He doesn't have enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency if he clears waivers, so, if does clear, the Yankees get to keep him. Keeping Bird as a non-40-man guy, even at that price tag, is perfectly cool with me. The money wouldn't count against the luxury tax payroll and the Yankees can evaluate him in Triple-A or whatever. No harm in keeping him as a non-40-man guy. I'd put it at 25% he sticks around as a non-40-man player and 75% his time in the organization is over, likely via release. The Yankees just might be done with the whole Greg Bird experience and move on. The Blue Jays, Mariners, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox jump to mind as teams that could use help at first base or DH. Maybe he'll go home to the Rockies. That'd be kinda cool. Whatever happens, it was clear Bird no longer belonged on the 40-man roster. The Yankees tried to make it work the last four years and it didn't happen, and, at some point, you have to move on. That point has arrived for Bird. Sucks. 

* UPDATE: Bird can elect free agent if he clears outright waivers because he has more than three years of service time. For some reason I thought players needed five years of service time to reject an outright assignment. So yeah, Bird's gone. My bad.

3. Cortes designated. Nestor Cortes was an obvious candidate to lose his 40-man roster spot this winter -- he pitched to a 5.67 ERA (5.57 FIP) this past season and allowed 24 runs in his final 25 2/3 innings -- and that's what happened yesterday. I just wanna take a second to say two things about Cortes. One, he was awfully fun to watch with the funky deliveries and different arm angles (GIF via @Jomboy_):

Cortes is fun and I am pro fun, so I will miss him for that reason. And two, Nasty Nestor really bailed the Yankees out early in the season when he and Chad Green were basically the fifth starter. Cortes pitched as the bulk innings guy five times following Green "opens" and had a 4.19 ERA in 19.1 innings, and the Yankees won all five games. I know a 4.19 ERA doesn't sound great, but American League starters had a 4.76 ERA this past season, and Cortes was quite a bit better than that as essentially the sixth starter. Props. Cortes did not have it easy this year. He was called up and sent down seven different times -- seven times! -- and he pitched in a variety of roles. That's a grind. He was fun to watch and he gave the Yankees a real nice shot in the arm as the bulk innings guy in the first half. Because he is left-handed and breathing (and cheap and optionable), I think there's a pretty good chance Cortes will get claimed on waivers at some point in the next week. His hometown Marlins could be a good fit. Derek Jeter and Gary Denbo have been scooping up ex-Yankees whenever possible the last two years. And, even if Cortes clears waivers, he can elect free agency because this will be his second outright (he was outrighted when he came back as a Rule 5 Draft guy last year), and I have to think he'll look to join a team that offers a greater big league opportunity. That's what I'd do. I'm not sure Nestor will ever be anything more than an up-and-down guy and it was an easy decision to drop him to the 40-man roster when space was needed. At the same time, he was fun to watch and did well when pressed into duty early in the year, and I appreciate that. Cortes may not have a big fastball or an out-pitch breaking ball, but he that dude has guts. He's fearless on the mound.

4. Medina protected. Earlier this week I listed Luis Medina as a "bubble" guy ahead of the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline and, as the deadline drew closer, I became more and more convinced the Yankees would add him to the 40-man roster. He has the highest upside in the farm system, at least among pitchers, and he did seem to turn a corner late this past season. The before and after numbers:

It's only eight starts at the end of the season -- when a guy spends the entire season at the same level (like Medina) you have to takes second half breakouts with a grain of salt because, in theory, many of the league's top performers get promoted at midseason and the level of competition changes -- but when a 20-year-old kid with an electric arm and tremendous upside does something like that, you have to take notice. Rebuilding teams are very willing to keep a Rule 5 Draft prospect on their big league roster all season just to get him in the organization these days (i.e. Padres and Luis Torrens), and I get not wanting to risk it with Medina. He's young, something may have clicked this year, the kid throws 100 mph, he has an FU curveball (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris) ...

... and a pretty good changeup as well. Had he been picked, chances are Medina would have been returned at the end of Spring Training because that's how it goes with most Rule 5 Draft players, but I understand why the Yankees wouldn't want to risk losing him. Even if the Yankees only consider him a trade chip going forward, they don't want to lose that trade chip for nothing. I get it. Medina now has three minor league option years ahead of him, so figure he splits 2020 between High-A and Double-A, then 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, and then 2022 between Triple-A and MLB. I think that's a reasonable timetable when you consider a dude like him is likely to have a command-related hiccup at some point. I thought Medina was a "bubble" guy as recently as Tuesday morning. The more I thought about it though, the more I thought the Yankees would add him to the 40-man. There's too much talent here and I could see some rebuilding team grabbing Medina as a Rule 5 Draft player and sitting on him next year. Exposing him in the Rule 5 Draft isn't worth the risk. (Look at that GIF and tell me Medina doesn't have some Dellin Betances in his delivery. The way he lifts his leg, swings his arm back, and strides forward is a carbon copy of Dellin. The Yankees helped Betances simplify his delivery when he moved to the bullpen full-time in 2013. I wonder if they make the same adjustments with Medina to get him straightened out.)

5. Kriske protected. The Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is always fun because you find out who teams like more than the public. For example, the Dodgers added utility man Zack McKinstry to their 40-man roster yesterday and you won't find him on a top prospects list anywhere, yet there he is, on the 40-man roster of maybe the deepest and most talented team in the sport. The Yankees added righty Brooks Kriske, another one of my "bubble" guys, to the 40-man yesterday and you won't find him on any prospect lists anywhere. He was definitely on the radar though. I first wrote about him back in early August. The 25-year-old had Tommy John surgery soon after being a sixth round pick in 2016 and, when he returned last summer, his fastball jumped from the low-90s into the mid-90s. He also added a splitter this year that he says made a big difference for him. "I added that splitter about a month ago, and I feel like for this last month, things have been going a lot smoother with that third pitch," he told Sean Miller in July. Here's the full repertoire (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris):

Kriske has the Joe Kelly/Lucas Giolito/Taijuan Walker short arm delivery that is becoming popular around baseball. Kelly shortened up his arm action a few years ago and his velocity jumped. Giolito shortened up his arm action this year and became a Cy Young candidate. Walker returned from Tommy John surgery in September with the short arm action, so he made the adjustment while rehabbing. Kriske's arm action wasn't that short his draft year at USC (video), so he made the adjustment at some point with the Yankees -- "I made some mechanical adjustments during the offseason, and now (my delivery) feels better than it ever has," he told Miller, though I have no idea what mechanical adjustments he is talking about -- and perhaps it contributed to his 2019 breakout. Either way, Kriske had a 2.08 ERA (2.69 FIP) with 33.1% strikeouts and 11.6% walks in 60.2 innings at mostly Double-A this past season, and relievers who do that are prime Rule 5 Draft fodder. Pretty good chance he would've been picked, and he would've had as good a chance to stick as any player taken in the Rule 5 Draft this year. It's possible Kriske is another Joe Harvey, that lesser know relief prospect who goes up and down a few times and is dumped when a 40-man roster spot is needed at the trade deadline, but I think it's easy to understand why the Yankees added him to the 40-man. The stuff is good, the results are good, and it's likely he would've been gone in the Rule 5 Draft. Kriske's someone worth keeping around, at least for the time being.

6. 40-man roster status. The 40-man roster is now full (duh) and there's still three months of offseason remaining. The Yankees are going to re-sign Brett Gardner eventually, and he'll need a 40-man spot. They might sign Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg or another starting pitcher, and that guy will need a 40-man spot. They could re-sign Dellin Betances or Didi Gregorius and they'd need 40-man spots. This is my guess at the current 40-man chopping block (I emphasize this is just a guess):

1. Mike Ford (non-tender/re-sign to minor league deal candidate)
2. Chance Adams (I'd keep him and move him to the bullpen full-time)
3. Tyler Wade (trade candidate)
4. Ben Heller (non-tender/re-sign to minor league deal candidate)
5. Stephen Tarpley (non-tender/re-sign to minor league deal candidate)
6. Luis Cessa (trade candidate)

Dropping Ford after designating Bird for assignment may not make much sense at first, but it's entirely possible Bird and/or Ford will clear waivers and remain in the organization as non-40-man roster players. And, even if not, lefty hitting depth first basemen aren't hard to find. If the Yankees lose Bird and Ford on waivers or whatever, they could sign Yonder Alonso or Justin Bour to a minor league deal, and lose nothing but roster flexibility (at this point of their careers Alonso and Bour can't be optioned back to the minors once called up). Mike King makes Adams expendable, Thairo Estrada makes Wade expendable, and Heller and Tarpley are the kind of spare part arms who bounce around waivers 24/7/365. Cessa is going to make decent money next year (projected $1.1M) and even though he was perfectly fine as the long man this year, I can't help but wonder if the Yankees believe they have guys in the organization who can do the same job just as well (King? Jonathan Loaisiga?) at half the price, making Cessa expendable. I guess we'll find out. The easy solution here is packaging three or four fringe 40-man roster guys in a trade for one player but that doesn't happen in real life. It does in video games, but not in reality. Most other teams have full 40-man rosters at this point and aren't looking to take on some other team's scraps, you know? I could see the Yankees flipping Adams or Wade for a non-40-man player and clearing spots that way. The ol' three-for-one concept to clear 40-man space sounds great but rarely happens. The Rule 5 Draft protection deadline has passed but managing the 40-man roster never stops. The Yankees will have some difficult 40-man decisions to make as we get deeper into the offseason. (Nice work by the MLBPA not getting the 40-man roster expanded to 41 players or getting the luxury tax threshold raised to accommodate the extra player when active rosters expand to 26 players next year.)

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