November 19th, 2019: Prospects, Blake, Bird, Rule 5 Draft, Sign-Stealing, Bold Predictions, Alternate Jerseys

Just a heads up, I am planning to skip next Friday's regularly scheduled post since it is the day after Thanksgiving. If there's breaking news, I'll cover it, otherwise I'm going to enjoy the long holiday weekend after spending Thursday with the extended family. Thanks as always for the support. Now here are today's thoughts as NPB officials decide no one was worthy of their top pitcher award this year.

1. Baseball America's top 10. Baseball America (subs. req'd) released their latest Yankees top 10 prospects list last week. OF Jasson Dominguez sits in the top spot. Josh Norris took over the Yankees list a few years ago and his lists are always ... different. Different doesn't mean bad! Different is good, actually. Prospect ranking is boring when there is no dissent. Here is Norris' latest top 10, with some thoughts afterward:

1. OF Jasson Dominguez
2. RHP Clarke Schmidt
3. RHP Deivi Garcia
4. RHP Luis Gil
5. SS Oswald Peraza
6. SS Anthony Volpe
7. RHP Luis Medina
8. RHP Roansy Contreras
9. RHP Alex Vizcaino
10. RHP Albert Abreu

Notably absent: OF Estevan Florial. In the chat (subs. req'd), Norris says Florial will rank in the team's top 30 prospects in Baseball America's Prospect Handbook, but he has "serious questions about his future offensive abilities," mostly because he can't control the strike zone. I am down on Florial too. He's made little to no progress with his pitch recognition and the injuries have slowed him down as well. I'd still rank him among the organization's top 10 prospects though. The upside is immense. Schmidt's scouting report is really exciting. He touched 97 mph with a fastball that runs like a two-seamer, showed a "potentially plus or better changeup," and a breaking ball that "earns above-average and plus grades." Here's video of that breaking ball. Schmidt came back from Tommy John surgery as well as we could've reasonably hoped. He is on track to make his MLB debut in the second half next year. Peraza at No. 5 was a surprise to me. The scouting report says he has "above-average or better raw power" and an "advanced knowledge of the strike zone," which gives him big offensive upside even if it hasn't shown up in games yet (.263/.332/.340 in 65 games at mostly Low-A Charleston). Peraza is only 19 and he has the tools to remain at shortstop long-term. Ranking him at No. 5 is probably aggressive -- if we're ranking him based on offensive upside that hasn't shown up in games yet, shouldn't Florial rank that high too? -- but he is an up-and-coming prospect in the system. Norris notes Medina had a 32% swing-and-miss rate on his fastball in the strike zone this year, more than double the 15% league average, which is bonkers. That's basically Chad Green level fastball dominance and Medina did it as a starting pitcher. The curveball and changeup are nasty and "something clicked late in the season," which is exciting because Medina has the highest upside in the system, but has been held back by nonexistent command. If that "hey, I can throw strikes now" breakthrough truly came this season, Medina will rocket up prospect rankings next year. The scouting report describes Vizcaino's slider as being "thrown in the low 80s with a spin rate that averaged around 2,500 revolutions per minute," which is a tick better than average spin. He has a big fastball and a knockout changeup. Developing that slider will determine just how good Vizcaino can be long-term. The raw skills are there for the slider to be a quality offering. Only three of the top 10 prospects have reached Double-A and Schmidt made only three starts at the level late in the season. Most of the organization's top prospects are in the low minors right now, which makes them less appealing in trade talks and more risky overall. The further away a prospect is from the big leagues, the more that can go wrong. With any luck, a few of those lower level top 10 prospects will reach Double-A next year (Contreras, Gil, and Vizcaino have the best chance), and put themselves in position to help at the MLB level in 2021.

2. Blake speaks. Rookie pitching coach Matt Blake spoke for the first time last week. "It is obviously not something I have done at the Major League level but, as I’ve accumulated experiences, it’s probably not as large of a reach as maybe it seems on the surface. But with that said, I am reaching out to other pitching coaches around the league. (Indians pitching coach) Carl Willis has been a great resource," he told Kristie Ackert. Blake spoke about two things in particular. First, using the latest technology and analytics to help pitchers get better -- "It’s on us to do our due diligence in the minor leagues and prepare our players to understand those things so hopefully we’re not attacking that the first time a guy gets to the Major Leagues," he told Dan Martin -- which is what he supposedly specialized in with the Indians. For what it's worth, Shane Bieber credited Blake with helping him take his game to the next level while in the minors. "He was an integral part in me using my curveball more. Matt had a lot of ideas of how to add that to my repertoire and the pitch had a lot to do with the success I had last year. He worked with me on when to throw it, how to get more spin on it, and what counts it was most effective," Bieber told Dan Martin. That's exciting. Maybe he can help Chad Green develop a Dellin Betances breaking ball. Would be cool. Secondly, Blake spoke about the need to keep pitchers healthy. The Yankees did not have much luck with that this year (Betances, Luis Severino, Jonathan Holder, etc.) or even previous years either. Here's what Blake told Ackert about keeping guys healthy:

“I think that’s where it gets to, you know, having a big picture in mind. It’s not just what are they doing on the mound or what are they doing in their throwing program, it’s the whole spectrum of activities to prepare their body,” Blake said. “So the integration of rehab, strength, conditioning and nutrition and all that is going to be important to understand. 

“What does the workload look like? What is the volume of work and the stress they’re incurring look like? Then I think, making sure their bodies are prepared for the work that we’re expecting them to contribute on the mound,” Blake continued. “And then just continue to reassess the situation as we get more information.”

There is always going to be an inherent injury risk with pitchers. That's just the way it is. The Indians have been really good at keeping their guys on the field the last few years though. Even some of the physical issues they had this year can't be blamed on anything the team did wrong. Corey Kluber had his forearm broken by a comebacker. That's just bad luck. Carlos Carrasco was diagnosed with a form of blood cancer and that has nothing to do with baseball. The Indians have been able to keep their best pitchers on the field as well as any team these last few years and it has been a big part of their success. I hope Blake can bring some of that to the Yankees. I would love to see Severino and James Paxton together for 64 combined starts next year, and Clarke Schmidt and Deivi Garcia doing the same in future years. Pitchers break and on some level injuries are unavoidable. That's baseball. Given all the amount of pitching injuries the Yankees have had in recent years -- the amount of arm injuries, specifically -- I have to think there is something they could be doing better. There is room for improvement somewhere. I have no idea what they could do better or how they could do it better, but it's up to Blake and the Yankees to figure out. These days it's not good enough to have the best players. You need to have the best players and keep them on the field as much of possible. Improved pitcher health under Blake would be very welcome.

3. Bird watching. Greg Bird's stint in the Dominican Winter League is over. In fact, it ended a few weeks ago. Bird played seven games for the Gigantes del Cibao and went 3-for-24 (.125) with six walks and nine strikeouts. He last played Oct. 30th and Randy Miller reports the plan all along was for Bird to spend a week in the Dominican Republic before returning to Tampa. It was a "go get some games in and see how you feel" thing. The numbers are meaningless -- Bird had not faced competitive pitching since April and besides, it's seven games -- but who cares? The important thing is Bird seems to have made it through those seven games healthy. He completed his foot rehab and got into a few games, and that qualifies as a good start to the offseason in my book. Bird can now have three normal offseason months before Spring Training rolls around. He is projected to make $1.3M through arbitration and that's a) a lot for a guy who has not been healthy or good the last four years, and b) not much in the grand scheme of things. That is less than 1% of the Yankees' projected 2020 payroll. Bird is a non-tender candidate, but knowing how much the Yankees love him, I bet they bring him a back. I was thinking maybe the Yankees could try to leverage a non-tender into a quick deal below the projection, but Bird made $1.2M last year, so there's little remove to maneuver. The only realistic way to get him to agree to take a pay cut -- no player has ever had his salary cut through arbitration, so, worst case scenario, Bird takes the Yankees to arbitration if they offer a pay cut -- or a well-below projection salary is to non-tender him and re-sign him to a new contract, and that creates the possibility of a bidding war. It won't be a fierce bidding war, but it does open up the bidding to all teams. And if you're Bird, do you sign with the Yankees knowing you'll have to compete with Luke Voit and maybe Miguel Andujar at first base, or do you sign with a team like the Blue Jays or Royals, who offer a clear path to playing time? You sign with the Blue Jays or Royals, obviously. Bird's priority has to be getting his career back on track. Not showing loyalty to the team that drafted him and stuck by him through the injuries. The bet here is the Yankees will bring Bird back at his projected $1.3M salary or thereabouts because that is the easiest way to keep him in the organization. Non-tender/re-sign has the potential to become a headache. For now, I'm just glad Bird completed his foot surgery rehab and played in some winter ball games, so he won't show up to Spring Training having not seen competitive pitching in almost a year.

4. Rule 5 Draft protection decisions. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters for next month's Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees currently have four open 40-man roster spots -- that includes Domingo German's spot (he doesn't count against the 40-man while on administrative leave or the suspended list) -- and here, via Pinstriped Prospects, are the team's notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects:

• Will be protected: OF Estevan Florial, RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Luis Gil
• On the bubble: RHP Rony Garcia, RHP Brooks Kriske, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Nick Nelson, RHP Alex Vizcaino, RHP Miguel Yajure
• Won't be protected: IF Oswaldo Cabrera, OF Isiah Gilliam, RHP Brian Keller, LHP Trevor Lane, RHP Jio Orozco, RHP Freicer Perez

Three of the four open 40-man spots will go to Florial, Garcia, and Gil. Figure the fourth goes to one of Nelson, Vizcaino, or Yajure. My guess is Nelson is first up for protection because he is the most MLB ready, then Yajure, then Vizcaino. The Yankees could drop Nestor Cortes from the 40-man to open another spot. A trade before the protection deadline is possible, maybe even likely. Rather than add a bubble guy to the 40-man, the Yankees could trade him for a non-40-man roster prospect(s). That way they don't have to worry about losing him for nothing in the Rule 5 Draft and the acquiring team gets the player without the Rule 5 strings attached. They'd be able to option him down to the minors to continue on a proper development path. The Astros traded Trent Thornton to the Blue Jays because they weren't going to add him to the 40-man prior to the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline last year, for example. I could see that happening with Vizcaino or Yajure in particular. They're (probably) not MLB ready, but they are talented, and rebuilding teams have shown they will carry a talented prospect on their big league roster all season as a Rule 5 player just to get him in the organization. The Padres did it with Luis Torrens, most notably, plus the Tigers (Victor Reyes) and Orioles (Richie Martin) have done it too. I could see the Marlins, Royals, or Tigers trying something like that with Vizcaino or Yajure. The official RAB prediction: Florial, Garcia, Gil, Nelson, and Yajure all get added to the 40-man before the protection deadline (Cortes gets cut to open the extra spot) and the Yankees don't make any trades, meaning Vizcaino gets exposed. My confidence level in that prediction is small. The Rule 5 Draft deadline is one the least predictable events in the sport. There always seems to be a surprise or three. (Keep in mind the Yankees will need a 40-man spot when they re-sign Brett Gardner, sign Gerrit Cole or another pitcher, etc. Spots are at a premium right now.)

5. More sign-stealing thoughts. I keep waiting for the Yankees to get caught up in this big Astros sign-stealing scandal -- eventually someone with Houston is gonna crack and say "but they were doing it too!" right? -- but you know what? Various Yankees have been very outspoken against this whole thing. Brian Cashman has been asked about it a bunch because the Astros have eliminated the Yankees from the postseason three times in the last five years, and he's been critical of the scandal. From Ken Davidoff:

“I don’t think it’s a technological question alone. It’s just conduct,” Cashman said. “You decide to play by the rules, or you don’t. And if you don’t, there’s consequences. You’re putting yourself at risk whether it’s future employment, current employment, or sanctions or what have you. It’s not a technology question as much as how you want to operate.”

Asked how much concern he held over opponents cheating, Cashman said, “There’s a lot of concern that it exists in some places.”

Cashman could've easily cited the ongoing investigation and hid behind a "no comment," or even spoken anonymously, but he instead gave a strongly worded comment. That's probably not something he does if the Yankees have their own state of the art sign-stealing scheme in place, is it? Maybe the Yankees do have their own scheme and Cashman doesn't know about it. I find that hard to believe though. Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Luis Cessa all took to Twitter to express some level of anger over Houston's sign-stealing as well. They put their names to it. Maybe this is all part of a huge misdirection plan to get everyone off the Yankees' scent. It's possible. To me, it seems like genuine anger, which is understandable given the postseason losses to the Astros. I'd be upset too if I found out the team that sent me home has crossed the line so arrogantly to steal signs. The Yankees are not beyond reproach. They've done some shady things themselves, none more gross than leveraging Aroldis Chapman's ongoing domestic violence investigation in trade talks, but Cashman and the few players who have spoken out seem genuinely angry about the sign-stealing scheme. Maybe it's revealed the Yankees do have their own sign-stealing scheme and they get caught up in the investigation. Right now, their words and tweets lead me to believe they have nothing elaborate going on, or at least nothing that will get them in trouble. They wouldn't be speaking out like this if they had skeletons in their closet.

6. Bold predictions review. Prior to the season I laid out five bold predictions for the 2019 Yankees. It went 7-for-10 with my predictions in 2017, which told me I wasn't bold enough. Last year I went 0-for-5, so maybe too bold? I took another 0-for-5 this year. Maybe I'll get one right next year. Time to review this year's five bold predictions.

Judge and Stanton will combine for 116 home runs.

The 116 would've been a new record for two teammates, beating out Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle with the 1961 Yankees. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton combined to hit 30 home runs in 2019, so just a wee bit short there. Judge had 27 of the 30. Stanton hit three in 18 games around his injuries. Gotta say, I never would've guessed the Yankees would win 103 games with those two being limited to 30 homers and 120 games combined.

Paxton will receive the most Cy Young points by a Yankee since Clemens.

Roger Clemens won the 2001 Cy Young and received 122 voting points. There are five spots on the Cy Young ballot and first place get five points, second place gets four points, so on and so forth. The most Cy Young points by a Yankee since Clemens is 102 by CC Sabathia in 2010. Sabathia received three first place votes, 10 second place votes, 12 third place votes, two fourth place votes, and one fifth place vote. Paxton received zero Cy Young votes and thus zero Cy Young points this year. The same is true of every single Yankees pitcher in 2019.  

Andujar will finish the year as an above-average defender.

The shoulder injury and surgery limited Miguel Andujar to 12 games and only 33 innings at third base this season. In those 33 innings he managed -2 DRS, -2.4 UZR, -0.8 FRAA, and -3 Total Zone. Damn. I was hoping he'd sneak in a +1 or even a +0.1 with one of those defensive stats in the small sample size so I could claim victory, but alas. I miss Miggy.

Ottavino will lead the Yankees in saves.

The thinking here was Aroldis Chapman's velocity was down in Spring Training and Dellin Betances was already hurt when I posted the bold predictions, and it wasn't too hard to envision Adam Ottavino leaping over Zack Britton to steal save opportunities. I was only 35 saves short of being correct! The 2019 Yankees saves leaderboard:

1. Aroldis Chapman: 37
2. Zack Britton: 3
3. Chad Green: 2
4. Adam Ottavino: 2
5. David Hale: 2
6. Stephen Tarpley: 2
7. Luis Cessa: 1
8. Chance Adams: 1

The Yankees had four of those "throw the last three innings in a blowout and you get credit for a save" saves this year. Adams, Cessa, Hale, and Tarpley had one each. The Yankees had four such saves this season and three last season. In the ten years under Joe Girardi, they had eight such saves. Is that because Aaron Boone is more willing to stick with one guy late in a blowout? Roster construction? Organizational philosophy? Probably all of the above.

Romine will get an extension before Judge.

Technically this could still happen! Also, technically, any contract Austin Romine signs now would not be an extension. It would be a brand new contract. I'm taking the L based on that. The spirit of this prediction was Romine signing a new deal before the season ended and that didn't happen. Judge hasn't signed an extension yet either, but you know what? I'd bet on Romine signing a new deal before Judge signs an extension anyway. February and March is typically extension season for arbitration-eligible players. I have to think Romine, a free agent, will sign before then.

7. Alternate jerseys? Last night the Brewers revealed their new uniforms, which will commemorate their 50th anniversary season in 2020. The new uniforms are fantastic:

Love everything about them. The cream home uniforms, the navy blue alternates, the road gray, the return of the mb glove logo, everything. Really sharp. Well done, Brewers. Anyway, I bring this up because it's probably time to discuss the Yankees having an alternate jersey again. I've mentioned it in the past on RAB and I am certain it will never ever ever happen because tradition and stuff, but I think the Yankees should have an alternate jersey to wear for Sunday home day games or something like that. Doesn't have to be a regular thing. Just a little something to break up the monotony of the 162-game grind from time to time. I think a navy blue top (similar to the Spring Training jerseys) that incorporates the top hat logo would be a neat idea. If I were any good at photoshop, I'd whip up a mock alternate jersey, but I'm not. Sorry. The Yankees would keep their iconic home pinstripes and less iconic road grays, and wear them most of the time, but also get a fresh look and an entirely new design to market and sell. The idea that the Yankees should wear something other than traditional uniforms is blasphemous, I know, but Players Weekend has already helped broaden our horizons as baseball fans. We've seen the Yankees play in something other than their regular uniforms. That band-aid has been ripped off. So why not come up with an alternate jersey to wear maybe 10 times a year? Something simple yet tasteful that doesn't infringe on the Yankees believing they are classiest organization in the history of the universe. It's (probably) not going to happen but I'd like to see it. It's okay to join the 21st century at some point and be seen in something other than the uniforms the Yankees have been wearing since the dawn of time. (Also, yes, the Nike swoosh will appear on the front of jerseys starting next year, Yankees included. People will be mad because they get mad whenever baseball changes anything, then they'll forget about it a week into the season, kinda like when MLB put the New Era logo on the side of caps a few years ago.)