November 15th, 2019: Hot Stove Rumors, Dominguez, Andujar, Cubs, Sign-Stealing, Mailbag

Rocco Baldelli beat out Aaron Boone for the Manager of the Year award earlier this week -- they received the same number of first place votes (13), but Baldelli had more second place votes (13 to 9) and Boone was left off four ballots entirely -- which is pretty much the only thing the Twins can beat the Yankees at nowadays. DJ LeMahieu finished fourth in the MVP voting, Gleyber Torres received a fifth and a ninth place MVP vote, and no Yankees received Rookie of the Year or Cy Young votes, as expected. The book is officially closed on 2019. Now here are today's thoughts.

1. GM Meetings rumors. The GM Meetings gave us a significant free agent signing this week. How about that? The Braves gave lefty reliever Will Smith a three-year deal worth $39M with a club option for a fourth year. Three years and $39M is the Zack Britton contract. Makes sense. Ken Rosenthal says Smith's agent told interested teams to make their best offers before the qualifying offer deadline Thursday, otherwise they were going to accept it, so he was able to leverage the qualifying offer into a nice multi-year contract. Neat. Not much happened with the Yankees at the GM Meetings this week. Here's a recap of the rumors:

• The Yankees have "checked in" on Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler. (Bryan Hoch)
• Brian Cashman said he will check in with Madison Bumgarner's representatives but hasn't yet. (John Shea)
• Cashman spoke to Jake Odorizzi's agent before he accepted the qualifying offer yesterday. (Brendan Kuty)
• Cashman is in touch with the agents for Dellin Betances, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, and Austin Romine. (James Wagner and Hoch)
• Teams are calling about Miguel Andujar. (Kuty)

Not a whole lot to say about that, really. The Yankees check in on pretty much every free agent every year, so reaching out to Cole, Odorizzi, Strasburg, Wheeler, and eventually Bumgarner is not surprising. The real news would be the Yankees not reaching out to those guys. Same goes for Betances, Gardner, Gregorius, and Romine. The Yankees have reasons to bring all those guys back next year -- at the right price, obviously -- and they were always going to remain in touch with them. As for teams calling about Andujar, I mean, duh. He's really good and of course teams are going to see whether they can pry him loose for pennies on the dollar following shoulder surgery. I'd want the Yankees to do the same thing if Andujar were on another team. Andy Martino says the Yankees are not particularly close to making a move and of all the possible hot stove updates (checked in on, have interest in, etc.), that might be the most meaningless. These things can change in an instant with a single call or text message. The Yankees are not close to making any moves until suddenly they are. Things have been pretty quiet the first two weeks of the offseason though. Nothing out of the ordinary or unexpected yet. "It’s so early in the process in my conversations with the personnel ...  We’re just gonna put our best foot forward, making sure we can share who we are and what we represent. Not just with the contract and the offer. We’ll try to make sure they understand what our culture is, along with a winning contract offer to make sure to try to win the day. Even that doesn’t guarantee anything," Cashman told Dan Martin.

2. Jasson hype. The Jasson Dominguez hype machine is off and running. The Yankees gave the 16-year-old Dominican wunderkind a $5.1M signing bonus earlier this year -- that is the largest bonus they've ever given an amateur player and it ate up almost their entire $5.4M bonus pool -- and the scouting reports at the time sounded too good to be true. More recently, Baseball Prospectus (subs. req'd) said the "reviews were universally positive" following Instructional League, and Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked Dominguez as the best prospect in the organization earlier this week. A snippet of their scouting report:

Dominguez is an advanced hitter from both sides of the plate with plate discipline, a low chase rate for someone his age and a swing path that allows his barrel to stay in the zone for a very long time. His sense of timing against all types of pitches mitigates the pre-pitch movement in his swing, and strong hands, wrists and forearms give him the potential for plenty of power from both sides of the plate. He has already shown exit velocities up to 108 mph from both sides of the plate in batting practice and has shown little problem turning around high-level velocity ... He has double-plus speed, which he combines with smooth, advanced route-running and quick-burst speed to help him track down balls in the far reaches of the outfield. His arm strength is plus or a tick better and is magnified by incredible accuracy. Internally, the Yankees describe Dominguez as a player who might be constructed by taking the best tools from other players throughout their system and molding them into a single player.

Like I said, the scouting reports sound too good to be true (here's some video). But, when multiple outlets all say the same thing and the scouting report continues to sound too good to be true, maybe the kid really is just that good? Would be fun. Figures the Yankees sign a prospect who's future outlook boils down to Mike Trout But A Switch-Hitter after we shut down RAB. Dominguez turns 17 in April and he is a long way from the big leagues -- he hasn't even played his first professional game yet -- but you know what? He might not be that far from the big leagues. Juan Soto hit .292/.406/.517 (145 wRC+) as a 19-year-old last year -- as baseball fans, I feel like we don't talk enough about how absolutely incredible that is -- and Ronald Acuna (4.1 WAR in 111 games) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (4.2 WAR in 84 games) put up MVP caliber numbers in abbreviated rookie seasons as 20-year-olds. Rafael Devers debuted as a 20-year-old. Vlad Guerrero Jr. debuted as a 20-year-old. Gleyber Torres likely would've debuted as a 20-year-old if not for the whole Tommy John surgery thing. Wander Franco has a chance to debut as a 19-year-old at some time next year. These super advanced international kids get into the system at a very young age and they have the talent to climb the ladder quickly. Given what we know about Dominguez, it's not crazy to think he could split 2020 between Extended Spring Training and a Short Season league as a 17-year-old, 2021 between Low-A and High-A as an 18-year-old, and 2022 between Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB as a 19-year-old. That's the best case scenario timetable. The "he's another Juan Soto but with good defense" timetable. Chances are there will be a hiccup somewhere along the way and Jasson doesn't make his debut until he is an old man at 20 or 21, but maybe it clicks early, and he arrives as a teenager. Unlikely? Yeah. Impossible? Nah. Teams are very good at developing prospects these days and the Yankees have had quite a bit of success themselves developing high-end hitting prospects in recent years. Dominguez could be the next great Yankee. The scouting reports certainly make it sound that way. I'm excited and I'm trying to remain rational here, but man, it is not easy. (In case you're wondering, the last teenager to suit up for the Yankees was 18-year-old Jose Rijo in 1984. George Steinbrenner wanted his own Doc Gooden, so they called Rijo up. Their last teenage position player was 19-year-old Frank Trepedino in 1967.)

3. New position(s) for Andujar. For the very first time Brian Cashman acknowledged the Yankees may have to move Miguel Andujar to a new position(s) in deference to Gio Urshela at third base earlier this week. Cashman compared it to the Alfonso Soriano situation back in the day. Soriano came up through the minors as a (defensively challenged) shortstop and he wasn't going to unseat Derek Jeter, so the Yankees worked him out in left field in Spring Training 2001. He then moved to second base when Chuck Knoblauch forgot how to throw. "It was like, ‘Wow, (Soriano's) too good to send down to Triple-A.' It was like, ‘How can we keep this dynamic bat?’ I can't dispute that I've run through my mind about Andujar that way too, because he's a special kid. He's really talented. You know what he can do with the bat. And it's not a bad problem to have," Cashman told Bryan Hoch. Cashman did not say where the Yankees would move Andujar -- first base and left field are the obvious landing spots, though right field might be a better fit because there's less ground to cover in Yankee Stadium -- and he also said the Yankees have not instructed Andujar to begin working out at other positions yet, though Joel Sherman says Andujar is going through footwork drills to help prepare him for a possible position change. That makes sense. He is still rehabbing from major shoulder surgery. Let him complete the rehab first -- Andujar had started hitting and fielding drills as of the most recent rehab update last month -- and then worry about diving headfirst into position change. You don't want him hurting the shoulder again because he doesn't know how to make a proper throw from the outfield or something like that. It is entirely possible the position change, if it does happen, will have to happen on the fly on the MLB level. Andujar can really hit and sending him down to learn a new position is a waste of a potential impact bat. At the same time, Andujar may need to go to Triple-A next year to get back up to speed at the plate following shoulder surgery. He hasn't hit in competitive games in over six months now and it's been seven months since he last hit in competitive games with a healthy shoulder. It's a long layoff and some rehab games could be warranted, which would also give him time to work on a new position in an environment where wins don't matter. Andujar would need to spend 36 days in the minors next season to delay his free agency but that shouldn't matter. Any time in Triple-A should be on a rehab assignment, thus allowing Andujar to collect big league pay and service time, and not an optional assignment. You don't declare a player healthy following major shoulder surgery, activate him off the injured list, then option him down to get what amount to rehab at-bats. That's not how it works. It should be a rehab assignment that does not have any effect on Andujar's free agency. Anyway, the point is Cashman has finally admitted to thinking about Andujar at a position other than third base because Urshela has forced their hand. They were all-in on Miggy at the hot corner last year, then he got hurt, and Urshela did his thing. Andujar's bat is way too good to push aside. The Yankees have to find a way to get him in the lineup, and as soon as he's done rehabbing his shoulder, it sounds like he may be told to begin working out at other positions. First base and the two corner outfield spots make the most sense. Either way, Miggy Missiles will always be a bat first guy. “If Gio continues to hold (third base), you’re going to want to see if you can find a way to get (Andujar's) bat into the lineup. Whether it’s, ‘Can he play first? Can he play the outfield?’ You start playing those mind games. It’s anything that you want to do, but I’ve been around long enough, when a bat’s good enough ..." Cashman told Ken Davidoff. 

4. Cubs as trade partners. For reasons unbeknownst to me (presumably luxury tax-related), the Cubs are looking to trade from their core this offseason. "We’ve had a stable core for five years ... We’re going to have change," GM Jed Hoyer told Jon Heyman earlier this week. Seems like a classic case of "the last few years have been disappointing and we don't know what to do, so we're going to get rid of a good player to shake things up," and good luck with that. That's the kind of thinking you expect from fans, not front office members of a multi-billion dollar franchise. Well, whatever. That's their problem. The Yankees could have interest in a few Cubs players should Chicago actually go through with their shakeup. Realistically, I think we can rule out Javy Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Anthony Rizzo as targets. I don't think the Yankees have the trade chips to swing a deal of that magnitude. Two Cubs stand out to me as more realistic trade targets for different reasons: Albert Almora and Kyle Schwarber. The Yankees have long had an affinity for Schwarber -- they tried like crazy to get Schwarber, who was out with a torn ACL at the time, in a potential Andrew Miller trade in 2016 -- and that interest could still exist. Schwarber has big left-handed power (94 homers since 2017) and patience (12.9% walk rate since 2017), two Yankees hallmarks, and he's worked hard to turn himself into a passable left fielder. Granted, he still isn't very good out there, but he's no longer a disaster. The hard contact tendencies are presumably Yankees approved ...

... and he can be your emergency third catcher, plus Schwarber is a real hard-nosed player with good makeup. You don't have to try real hard to see him fitting as a left fielder/DH who shares the positions with Giancarlo Stanton. The thing is, Schwarber has hit .234/.337/.492 (113 wRC+) the last three years, and he's pretty useless against lefties (85 wRC+), and the defense makes his upside something like +2.5 WAR. That's not bad by any means, but that's it? And he's projected to make $8M through arbitration this winter. It's not crazy to think he will be a non-tender candidate next year. Schwarber will turn only 27 in March, so there's a chance his best is yet to come, and that's what any team that trades for him will think. I just feel like, if you're going to spend $8M on a left-handed hitting left fielder/DH, why not keep your prospects and sign Corey Dickerson instead? I dunno. Maybe the Cubs will salary dump Schwarber and you can get him for two second or third tier prospects. I'm not sure that's possible. Theo Epstein loves him. (There's a reason he wouldn't trade him for Miller.) The Yankees have had interest in Schwarber in the past, so this is a #thingtowatch. As for Almora, I'm just thinking about him as possible center field depth, something the Yankees lack even with the inevitable Brett Gardner re-signing on the way. Almora is an awful hitter (career 87 wRC+) but he is a standout defender in center, close to Gold Glove caliber, and he has a minor league option for next year. Almora does have quick hands and a smooth swing, and he will turn only 26 in April, and he is a recent high draft pick (sixth overall in 2012), so there is talent here. The Cubs have been unable to unlock it. Maybe the Yankees could buy-low on Almora a la Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks, send him to Triple-A as depth, and help him unlock his offensive ability the way they did with Gio Urshela. Would be cool. The downside: Almora is projected to make $1.8M through arbitration. That shouldn't be an issue for a team with New York's pockets -- shouldn't as in it should not matter in a perfect world, but that's not the world we live in -- but it is pricey for a Triple-A depth guy. More than likely, the only Cubs player the Yankees look to acquire this winter is Schwarber. I imagine Chicago will get better offers for Baez, Bryant, Contreras, and Rizzo than whatever the Yankees can offer, but Schwarber should be attainable, and we know the Yankees liked him (a lot) at one point. Don't be surprised if we hear them connected at some point.

5. Astros sign-stealing. Earlier this week Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich (subs. req'd) released a bombshell report detailing the system the Astros used to steal signs during their 2017 world championship season. Former Astro Mike Fiers gave it all up. Long story short, the Astros had a dedicated center field camera focused on the catcher's signs, someone in the tunnel leading from the dugout to the clubhouse would watch on a monitor and decode the signs, then relay them to the hitter by banging on a nearby garbage can. Here's a video breakdown. Carlos Beltran denied it all and I love Beltran, but come on, do we really expect the guy who is less than a month into his first managerial job to admit to cheating? It is an extremely Mets thing for them to hire a universally beloved player to be their new manager, only to watch him get caught up in the worst cheating scandal since the Steroid Era like two weeks later. Anyway, the Astros released the following statement after the report was published:

“Regarding the story posted by The Athletic earlier today, the Houston Astros organization has begun an investigation in cooperation with Major League Baseball. It would not be appropriate to comment further on this matter at this time."

Maybe the Astros will help O.J. find the real killers after they finish their investigation into their own cheating. The 2017 Astros were actually a bit more productive on the road (.284/.351/.483) than at home (.279/.340/.472), but that doesn't mean anything. There are rules explaining how and how not to use technology -- stealing signs is not against the rules but using cameras and other electronics improperly is -- and what the Astros are said to have done is against those rules. Whether it worked is immaterial. This is not the first time Houston has been caught up in a technology-related scandal -- an Astros employee was busted videotaping opposing dugouts last postseason -- and it's silly to think the sign-stealing was limited to 2017. The Yankees used multiple signs throughout the ALCS -- to be fair, they are paranoid about sign-stealing and use multiple signs pretty much all the time, no matter the opponent or venue -- and Nationals pitching coach Paul Menhart said they came up with five sets of signs for each pitcher in the World Series to prevent sign-stealing. Kinda weird that it was just widely accepted throughout the postseason that the Astros steal signs at home. Everyone knew the Astros were doing something and accepted it as part of the game. It was ... weird. "I don’t think it’s a technological question alone. It’s just conduct. You decide to play by the rules, or you don’t,” Brian Cashman told Ken Davidoff when asked about the Astros and their sign-stealing. Of course, chances are every team is stealing signs (or trying to steal signs) in their home ballpark. The Yankees, the Nationals, every team. Some teams are undoubtedly better at it than others and some teams are probably more morally flexible about it than others too. I've seen some good schadenfreude on the ol' Twitter machine since the sign-stealing thing came out -- Mike Clevinger called out Alex Bregman, which was funny -- but man, I'm guessing there are a lot of general managers out there worried MLB's investigation into the Astros is going to dig up some dirt that traces back to them. The league is a glass house and you gotta be careful throwing those stones, you know? The Astros as a franchise have been really scummy under the Jim Crane/Jeff Luhnow leadership group. They treat employees poorly and have a generally gross culture up and down the organization. The Brandon Taubman thing was not an isolated incident. That is ingrained in Houston's DNA. The Astros are truly loathsome. I hate them more than I think I've ever hated a pro sports team in my life, and I hope MLB makes them vacate the 2017 ALCS win and gives the Yankees the World Series title as reparation. That won't happen, obviously, but I do hope MLB comes down hard on that awful team (a big fine and a loss of draft picks seems like the harshest possible punishment). I'm not getting my hopes up. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if nothing comes from it at all. There's a chance this blows up into something big though, because if the Astros were using cameras to steal signs in 2017, you know they were doing something even more shady in 2019, and you know other teams were trying stuff as well.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Brad asks: What are your thoughts on a potential trade for Trevor Story? There’s obviously the whole Coors Field affect as well as the Rockies being a very interesting organization as far as their decision making. Just curious on if you think he would even be worth it or what a trade would potentially look like.

Story is really, really good. He's worked hard to cut down on his strikeouts and he put up nearly identical batting lines the last two seasons that average out to .295/.358/.566 (126 wRC+) overall. Story is also an above-average defensive shortstop and a quality baserunner as well. He's a legitimate +5 WAR player.

As always, Coors Field complicate things. Story has hit .317/.384/.670 (143 wRC+) at home and .272/.330/.456 (107 wRC+) on the road the last two years. DJ LeMahieu has forced us to reconsider how we view Rockies hitters though, right? Like LeMahieu, Story checks all the hard contact boxes ...

... and we can't just assume his true talent level is whatever he hit away from Coors Field. It is much more complicated than that. Story turns 27 today and he has two years of control remaining. Even with a projected $11.5M salary next year, his trade value is significant. I prefer Francisco Lindor (duh) but Story is a worthwhile trade candidate.

I've heard from someone who'd know that the Rockies might try to attach Wade Davis and his $18M salary next year to one of their younger players in a trade this offseason to unload the contract. I heard the deal was more likely to involve a pitcher (hello, Jon Gray), though maybe they'd be willing to do it with Story too, knocking down the prospect cost.

For Story alone, the J.T. Realmuto trade seems like a decent benchmark. Realmuto was two years away from free agency when he was traded, like Story now, and he was also an above-average two-way contributor at a hard-to-fill position. Realmuto was traded for three players. The Yankees equivalents:

• RHP Sixto Sanchez: RHP Deivi Garcia
• C Jorge Alfaro: OF Clint Frazier
• LHP Will Stewart: RHP Frank German

Not apples to apples, necessarily, but those equivalents are in the ballpark. I'd do that trade, even with Garcia growing on me and Frazier being a personal fave. Story is an impact player at a premium position who makes the 2020-21 Yankees considerably better. Story at short, Gleyber Torres at second, LeMahieu in that infield rover position. Sign me up.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Jon asks: Has Gio Urshela ever played shortstop before? If Didi doesn't return, is he a viable backup to Torres there? 

Urshela has played a little shortstop in his career, including 12 games worth with Triple-A Scranton (postseason included) after coming over in the trade with the Blue Jays last August. He's played 37 minor league games (276 innings) and 13 Major League games (85 innings) at shortstop in his career. That's compared to almost 7,000 innings at third base.

Based on the inexperience, it seems Urshela is more of an emergency shortstop rather than a full-time backup there. His defensive tools are really good and he could probably handle it for two weeks at a time in case of an injury. I'm not sure the Yankees want to go into next season with Urshela as their Plan B at shortstop though. That's probably a stretch.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Paul asks: Hey Mike, who do you think stands to benefit most from the 26th man roster spot? My money’s on Tyler Wade being a big leaguer all season as I agree Frazier will probably get traded.

I think it's Greg Bird, honestly. The 26th roster spot has to go to a position player and I don't see how Bird would crack a three-man bench at this point. Backup catcher, backup infielder, backup outfielder. No room for Bird there. With a four-man bench though, the Yankees could carry Bird as an extra lefty bat who plays some first base and some DH.

Assuming Clint Frazier is traded at some point, other internal candidates for that 26th spot include Wade and Thairo Estrada, and maybe even Miguel Andujar depending how the team handles the backup infielder spot. Keep in mind there is still an entire offseason to play out though. The Yankees could (and likely will) bring in someone for that extra bench spot.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)