November 1st, 2019: World Series, Lindor, Pomeranz, Tsutsugo, Akiyama, Pitching Coach, Mailbag

The World Series is over and the offseason business has already begun. The Yankees declined their $20M club option for Edwin Encarnacion yesterday, as expected. Aroldis Chapman has until tomorrow to opt out of the final two years and $30M remaining on his contract. Now let's get to this week's thoughts as Hal Steinbrenner gets the "we will have both Severino and Montgomery back" train moving. 

1. Rapid fire World Series thoughts. I think that was the most satisfying non-Yankees World Series of my lifetime. Mostly because the Astros beat the Yankees and are so loathsome, and partly because the Nationals are so likeable. Max Scherzer's tenacity, Stephen Strasburg cementing himself as a postseason legend, Juan Soto's shuffles, Patrick Corbin validating the sixth year in Year 1, Daniel Hudson closing out a championship after two Tommy John surgeries, so on and so forth. The Astros hate is real, man. The Red Sox hate is based on the laundry. That's a long-standing historic rivalry. The Astros hate comes from that specific group of players and management. Imagine winning three World Series games on the road and still losing the series? Ridiculous. Couldn't have happened to a better team ... how does Gerrit Cole not get into Game 7? Astros manager A.J. Hinch said he was saving Cole for a save opportunity -- an opportunity that never came -- even though he started warming up in the fifth inning. Cole is the best pitcher on the planet right now and a bunch of lesser relievers let the game slip away. So dumb. I loved it ... we spent all year saying the Yankees were resilient, and they were, but man, the Nationals were left for dead several times this season:

• 22.2% postseason odds after 19-31 start.
• 11.6% win probability in eighth inning of Wild Card Game.
• 9.7% win probability in eighth inning of NLDS Game 5.
• 15.0% win probability in seventh inning of World Series Game 7.

The Nationals won the World Series with only four guys really hitting (Soto, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon, Howie Kendrick) and a six-man pitching staff. Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Hudson, Anibal Sanchez, and Sean Doolittle threw 127.2 of the team's 153 innings this postseason, or 83%. That's not supposed to work! But it did. Try to replicate it next year and I bet it all goes up in flames. Everything came together for Washington at the right time ... I loved the Soto/Alex Bregman bat carry thing, and of course both managers called it disrespectful after Game 6, and Bregman apologized immediately. Sigh. MLB talks the talk (let the kids play!) but it definitely does not walk the walk. This league spends too much time apologizing for the unimportant stuff (bat flips, etc.) and not enough time apologizing for the important stuff (assistant GM harassing female reporters, etc.) ... how great is it that after Hinch got all whiny about Aaron Hicks' foul pole homer in ALCS Game 5 -- he said it was a "mistake slider for a homer off the foul pole 315 feet away" -- that the Astros got beat on Kendrick's home run off the foul pole in Game 7? (*chef's kiss*) Imagine complaining about short porch home runs when you have that left field in your home ballpark ... it is completely insane the road team went 7-0 in the World Series. It had never happened in a best-of-seven championship series in MLB, the NBA, or the NHL. We might never see it again in our lifetimes. Ridiculous.

2. Lindor trade. Two weeks ago Joel Sherman floated the idea of a Francisco Lindor trade and I have been unable to get it out of my head since. Longtime RAB readers know I've adored Lindor for years. Since his prospect days. You can reasonably pencil him in as a +6 WAR player the next half-decade -- Lindor turns only 26 later this month -- and how many middle infielders can you say that about? Very, very few. Lindor is a brilliant all-around player and charismatic as hell. He is easy to root for and someone you want representing your franchise. Lindor is two years away from free agency -- MLBTR projects a $16.7M salary in 2020 -- and the payroll challenged Indians will trade him at some point, possibly sooner rather than later. Heck, owner Paul Dolan essentially told Zack Meisel (subs. req'd) that Indians fans should "enjoy him" while they can earlier this year. The Yankees should put everyone on the table in Lindor trade talks except Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Gleyber Torres, and, honestly, I think I can be talked into a Judge-for-Lindor scenario. There is pretty much no chance it happens, of course, but three years of a soon-to-be 28-year-old star corner outfielder for two years of a soon-to-be 26-year star shortstop when you can slide Giancarlo Stanton into right field, his natural position?

Luis Severino? Miguel Andujar? Deivi Garcia? Jasson Dominguez? Estevan Florial? Yeah, all those guys should be available in a Lindor deal. Some are obviously more difficult to trade than others -- you can't give up much more in addition to Severino, but the guy did just miss nearly an entire season with arm injuries, so I can't imagine making him untouchable in a trade for a megastar like Lindor -- but they all should be available. Add Lindor to Torres and the Yankees would move forward with the best middle infield in baseball, hands down. The biggest obstacle to a Lindor trade is, well, all the other teams out there. The Dodgers are sniffing around already, according to Jon Morosi. I'm sure the Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, and Mets will get involved, among others. Heck, maybe even the Rays. They have the farm system to swing a Lindor trade. And therein lies the problem. The Yankees are lacking in high-end trade chips. Garcia is a good but not truly elite prospect, the bloom is coming off the rose with Florial, and others like Dominguez, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and Albert Abreu are either too far away or not high-end enough to front a Lindor trade package. That means dealing from the MLB roster. Severino just had all the injuries, Andujar is coming back from major shoulder surgery, and the Yankees couldn't have made it any more clear they do not believe in Clint Frazier. His value is down. On paper, they do not have the kind of trade chips required to land a player like Lindor. The Dodgers could package Corey Seager and Alex Verdugo and geez, if you're the Indians, don't you have to think seriously about that? The Braves could build a trade package around Dansby Swanson, Cristian Pache or Drew Waters, and some of those prospect arms they've been hoarding. I'm not sure how the Yankees can compete with that given their farm system. If the Indians make Lindor available, the Yankees have to check in, and I am sure they will. They check in on everyone. It just seems to me they will be at a disadvantage when it comes time to put the best trade package together. Alas. Fun idea though.

3. Pursuing Pomeranz. I am into Drew Pomeranz as a free agent target. Strictly as a reliever, of course. He started last season in the Giants rotation and was terrible, then he moved into the bullpen at midseason (and got traded to the Brewers), and was lights out. His velocity shot up and the (small sample) bullpen numbers were outstanding (video):

Pomeranz is a former high draft pick (fifth overall in 2010) who had some very good years as a starter, then started to get hurt and turned 30 (31 later this month), and now it seems he's poised to carve out a second phase of his career as a reliever. The fastball spike is significant and there's reason to believe it's sustainable given the role change. Pomeranz certainly would not be the first guy to add velocity after moving to the bullpen. He's always had a real good curveball too, so it's not like the fastball is the only thing he has going for him. I wouldn't expect Pomeranz to be a sub-2.00 ERA/FIP or a 45+ K% guy going forward, those numbers are insane, but the tools are there for long-term success in relief. There's Andrew Miller potential here, though Miller had 1.5 seasons as an elite reliever under his belt when he became a free agent back in the day. Pomeranz doesn't even have 30 innings. My guess is several teams will be willing to roll the dice on him given this year's success, and that could push the bidding up quickly. Does two years and $15M get it done? Too much, not enough? I'm not sure. And would that even make sense for the Yankees? Maybe if Aroldis Chapman opts out, or they don't re-sign Dellin Betances, or they decide to blow through the luxury tax threshold(s). We know the Yankees greatly value a deep, strikeout heavy bullpen, and hey, why wouldn't they? That's the way go. They leaned on that bullpen a little too much in October, but you still want that kinda bullpen. There's always a point where the money doesn't make sense. I think Pomeranz could be a nice pickup with serious upside as a relief pitcher going forward. The Yankees went after Miller back in the day because he was every bit as good (better, really) as the best relievers on the market, but the limited track record held his asking price down. The same could be true with Pomeranz this winter.

4. Pursuing Tsutsugo. The Yokohama BayStars will post outfielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo for MLB teams this offseason, reports Jason Coskrey. Tsutsugo has been talking about making the jump for years now and the BayStars have finally agreed to post him. Here are the soon-to-be 28-year-old's recent numbers via DeltaGraphs: 

The league average player in Japan hit .252/.319/.392 with a 19.9% strikeout rate this past season. Tsutsugo was well above that this year even though it was his worst season since his 2016 breakout. The big strikeout rate spike is alarming, especially since he is a bat-only player. Tsutsugo is a lefty swinger with big patience and power (obligatory dinger video), two Yankees hallmarks, but he contributes negatively in the field and on the bases. The popular comp is Kyle Schwarber, a player the Yankees desperately tried to acquire from the Cubs years ago. Here's what former RABer and current front office staffer for KBO's Lotte Giants Sung-Min Kim wrote about Tsutsugo last year at FanGraphs:

The main concern with Tsutsugo is that some believe he might end up being a one-dimensional strikeout-or-home-run player in the MLB. If his hit tool can play along with his raw power, then you may have a worthwhile everyday outfielder in the majors. It also helps that he has displayed high OBP approaches, which counts a lot! However, the regression he experienced in 2017 places some doubt on his hitting ability at the next level ... Right now, Tsutsugo is far from a complete package, but the market is always on demand for a power-hitting outfielder. Teams will keep an eye on him.

Tsutsugo was at Yankee Stadium during the ALCS -- "I thought the atmosphere was amazing. I also thought it was a really high level of play," he told Coskrey -- but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Aroldis Chapman was at Yankee Stadium multiple times during the 2009 postseason, and he eventually signed with the Reds. Based on the numbers and the scouting report, my official position on Tsutsugo is: meh. He's worth considering as a potential first base/DH option (he's played first base in the past) who can play the outfield in a pinch, mostly because he has the potential to pepper the short porch and get on base a healthy amount. Plus the Yankees could use another left-handed bat. Tsutsugo is a star in Japan but he's not Hideki Matsui, who was a legend with a tremendous hit tool. If you think Tsutsugo can handle first base and MLB caliber pitching, then it's worth seeing whether he'll take something like three years and $18M. Low-cost, low-risk. My guess is he would return to Japan or sign with another MLB team in that case though. Why fight for playing time with the Yankees when you can make similar money back home, or be assured a lineup spot with another team? Tsutsugo doesn't really fit the Yankees. They could use another lefty bat but not another first base/DH guy with little defensive value or versatility. I don't think we'll hear the Yankees connected to Tsutsugo much once he is posted.

5. Pursuing Akiyama. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo is not the only Japanese player looking to make the jump to MLB this offseason. Seibu Lions outfielder Shogo Akiyama is an international free agent who can sign with an MLB team without being posted. Earlier this week Jim Allen reported Akiyama officially filed for free agency and will look to sign with an MLB club. Here are the soon-to-be 32-year-old's recent numbers via DeltaGraphs (obligatory video):

Similar to Brett Gardner, Akiyama came up as a left-handed hitting speed and defense guy who developed a power stroke in his late-20s and early-30s. Allen says Akiyama's defense has slipped in center field in recent years, something the numbers bear out, and something that also makes sense seeing how he will turn 32 shortly after Opening Day. Center field is typically a young man's position. Gardner started 94 games in center last season, the most by a player in his age 35+ season since Mike Cameron in 2009. Anyway, here's what Kazuto Yamazaki (subs. req'd) wrote about Akiyama earlier this month:

The speed is particularly notable, as he constantly runs sub-3.90 home-to-first with sub-4.40 turns at first base. Given the wheels, Akiyama is a threat on the basepaths ... he has made adjustments in the swing in the last three years in order to turn himself into a bona-fide force in the lineup. He has increased in-game, over-the-fence power numbers.

Given the skill set and roster needs, Akiyama strikes me as a much more sensible target for the Yankees than Tsutsugo. One is a one-dimensional slugger. The other is well-rounded. Ultimately, the perception of Akiyama's defense will drive his market. The team(s) that most believes he can play center field for the foreseeable future figures to be most aggressive. If you think he's moving to a corner sooner rather than later, then he might not be much of a priority. The Yankees need a center fielder in the wake of Aaron Hicks' Tommy John surgery and that's where Akiyama could fit in. Play center while Hicks is out, then slide into a more traditional fourth outfielder's role, or even stay in the lineup everyday if the production warrants it. Does two years and $10M get it done? That might even be too much. Of course, the Yankees are almost certainly going to re-sign Gardner to play center field while Hicks is out. I don't even know why I'm bothering to look at center field alternatives, really. Maybe Akiyama catches the Yankees' attention and they believe he can be a cheap power/speed/defense upside play. In all likelihood, the Yankees will bring back Gardner and consider the center field problem addressed. (Allen says Akiyama broke his foot during the Premier 12 tournament yesterday, which complicates his free agency.)

6. Pitching coach candidates. The Yankees did not wait long to begin the search for a new pitching coach. They've already interviewed University of Michigan pitching coach Chris Fetter, according to Jeff Passan, who says Fetter is drawing significant interest from MLB teams and is seen as a "rising star" in the industry. He has some minor league playing and coaching experience, and spent time with the Dodgers as their minor league pitching coordinator. Also, Kendall Rogers reports the Yankees have also interviewed University of Arkansas pitching coach Matt Hobbs. He is a veteran college coach (UC San Diego, University of Missouri, University of San Francisco, Wake Forest) who was drafted twice but never did play pro ball, apparently. Jumping straight from college to the big league coaching ranks is rare but not unprecedented. Just last year the Twins hired pitching coach Wes Johnson away from Arkansas (Hobbs replaced him). Many others have taken a more traditional college to minors to big leagues path, including Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson (Vanderbilt) and Brewers bench coach Pat Murphy (Arizona State). The Yankees hired several college coaches for minor league roles earlier this year and they are clearly willing to go back to that well to fill their vacant MLB pitching coach position. I have no opinion about this. I don't know any of these guys beyond what it e-printed here. There are lots of really smart college coaches out there with a lot to offer. And hey, chances are these guys will come cheaper than an experienced big league coach. I mean, who's gonna command the higher salary, the young college guy -- Fetter is 33 (!) and Hobbs is 39 -- trying to get his foot in the door, or the veteran MLB coach who's been with four teams already? Exactly. Never discount just how badly owners want to cut costs. The guess here is the Yankees will interview at least one veteran pitching coach just to cover all their bases. Remember when they interviewed Eric Wedge during the managerial search? Like that. Given the minor league coaching overhaul, my feeling is the Yankees are looking for a younger guy who is the next great pitching coach, similar to how they believe Aaron Boone is the next great manager. They want in on the ground floor rather than pay for the established name. (Brendan Kuty reports David Cone "would listen" if the Yankees had interest in interviewing him for the pitching coach job, which is not surprising. Cone has been open about his willingness to interview for jobs the last two years or so. As far as we know, the Yankees have not reached out to him.)

7. Homegrown World Series starters. Not sure what made me look this up, but there have been shockingly few homegrown starting pitchers in the World Series the last few years. Shocking to me, at least. Here is the complete list with each pitcher's number of starts in the series:

• 2019: Stephen Strasburg (2), Jose Urquidy (1)
• 2018: Walker Buehler (1), Clayton Kershaw (2)
• 2017: Kershaw (2), Dallas Keuchel (2), Lance McCullers Jr. (2)
• 2016: Josh Tomlin (2)

That is 14 starts from homegrown pitchers among 26 games and 52 starts in the World Series the last four years, or 27.0 percent. I guess we could give the 2016 Cubs credit for Kyle Hendricks (2), the 2016 Indians credit for Trevor Bauer (2) and Corey Kluber (3), and the 2018 Red Sox credit for Eduardo Rodriguez (1) since they were acquired as prospects and came up through the farm system, but that still only gets us to 42 percent. The most successful teams in baseball the last few years have been built around strong offensive cores, whether it was Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto, or Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, or Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, or Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, and they've picked up pitching along the way. The Astros pounced when Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole became available in trades. The Nationals signed Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. The Red Sox added Chris Sale and David Price in high profile moves. The Cubs spent big on Jon Lester and struck gold with Jake Arrieta. On and on it goes. You need quality pitching to win, absolutely, but the injury and attrition rates are so high that it's tough to plan around arms long-term. Look at the Mets. The Giants built a strong homegrown rotation and rode it to multiple World Series titles. Who was the last to do it before them? The Athletics never won with Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. Hell, the Braves had three Hall of Famers in their rotation from 1993-2002 and got one World Series title out of that group. I've been beating the "build around bats and add pitching where you can" drum the last few years and the last few pennant winners bear that out. The Yankees have that young offensive core. They've slacked in the whole "add pitching where you can" department, whether it was losing out on Cole or fearing the sixth year to Corbin. They can sign Cole this winter and make up for it, but only to a certain extent, because you can't get 2018 or 2019 back. Those years were opportunities to win a championship the Yankees can't get back.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Mark asks: This might sound nutty but with Hicks back on the IL yet again with TJS and knowing the uncertainty with Gardner (free agency and age), Stanton (poor defense and injuries), Frazier (awful defense and possible trade bait) and Tauchman (was his 2019 production normal), should the Yanks bring Ellsbury out of the witness relocation program as a legit starting OF candidate this spring training? Or is the injury insurance on his contract that important to keep him off the 2020 payroll luxury tax calculations?

I don't think Jacoby Ellsbury will be healthy enough to even compete for a roster spot next spring. Brian Cashman said Ellsbury still hasn't completed his hip surgery rehab during his end-of-season press conference -- he's had several setbacks, not all related to the hip -- and that's something that could continue to drag. Even in his prime, Ellsbury was not the quickest healer.

Here's the other thing: Ellsbury was only a fringe regular the last time he did play. He hit .264/.348/.402 (102 wRC+) with +1.6 WAR in just over 400 plate appearances in 2017. That's a low end starter for a championship caliber team, I think. Ellsbury did that during his age 33 season. He is now 36 (!) and he hasn't played in two years, and he's a speed guy coming off major hip surgery. That's a bad, bad combination. 

Even if he does get healthy in time for Spring Training, it's hard for me to believe Ellsbury could contribute in a meaningful way next season. The guess here is the Yankees would give him a look in camp to see what's what, and if doesn't look good, they'll release him. The insurance money will be dried up and the salary's a sunk cost. No need to drag this out any longer.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Dan asks: Not to be over dramatic here but if you had to guess how much is left in the Yankees window for contention? These past three seasons sure have been fun but man frustrating. I know you’ve said many times progression isn’t linear but time is definitely running out here and the baby bombers seem to about to be all grown up.

Three years. That's a reasonable estimate to me. That takes Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez through their team control years -- and Judge through his age 30 season -- Luis Severino and Gleyber Torres through their cheapest seasons, and Giancarlo Stanton through his age 32 season. Those are your cornerstone players and those are their remaining peak/cheap years, and thus the team's best chance to win.

The Yankees could always extend their window with smart pickups, player development success, and some plain ol' luck. Given everything we know about the team right now, I think the focus has to be on the next three seasons. The Yankees should do everything they can to maximize 2020-22 and try to win with this group while they're in their prime. Worry about what happens after that after that.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Michael asks: More of a personal question, which probably gets asked often: How much do you miss RAB, if at all? 

I don't miss it much at all, honestly, and I miss it less and less with each passing day. It had become a burden and it soaked up way too much time, and it turns out I like having time to myself. Who knew? RAB was a lot of fun for a long time. It started to become less fun, and it was time to move on. I don't regret the 12-year run at all, but I'm glad it's over. The Patreon is a great release. I can still chime in on the Yankees without the same RAB burden.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)