October 29th, 2019: Offseason Calender, 40-Man Roster, Rothschild, Bird, Hicks, Inciarte, AzFL

The Yankees season has been over 10 days now and wow do I miss it. The World Series is fun and all, but I wasn't ready for the Yankees to go away yet, especially not like that. The early days of the offseason are always the most difficult. Let's get to today's thoughts.

1. Offseason calendar. The offseason is upon us, so it's time to highlight the important dates and deadlines coming up these next few weeks and months. Here is the 2019-20 offseason calendar and what each date means for the Yankees:

Nov. 2nd: Option decisions due
Aroldis Chapman has to decide on his opt out Saturday. He'd walk away from two years and $30M. I think the Yankees will give him an extension (another year and $15M to $17M?) to skip the opt out, but we'll see. The Yankees also hold a $20M club option on Edwin Encarnacion. The $5M buyout makes it a $15M decision. That will be declined.

Nov. 3rd: Gold Glove winners announced
DJ LeMahieu is a finalist at second base even though he played only 579.2 innings at the position this year, 14th most in the American League. I'd bet on Jose Altuve winning it.

Nov. 4th: Deadline to make qualifying offer
Should he opt out, Chapman is an obvious qualifying offer candidate. He won't walk away from two years and $30M only to take the one-year, $17.8M qualifying offer. The only other qualifying offer candidate on the roster is Didi Gregorius and he's a maybe. I lean no at the moment.

Nov. 4th: Free agency begins
The exclusive negotiating period ends and free agents will truly be free. They can begin signing with new teams Monday.

Nov. 4th: Awards finalists announced
MLB started announcing three finalists for each award in each league a few years ago to create buzz. Not sure it's worked, but at least they tried. LeMahieu is the only serious award candidate among Yankees players and I'm not sure he'll be among the three finalists for MVP. Aaron Boone should be a finalist for Manager of the Year. That's about it.

Nov. 11th to 14th: GM Meetings in Scottsdale
The GM Meetings typically cover off-the-field matters, like all the high-tech sign-stealing that went on last postseason. There are usually one or two deals made this week though, plus there are talks that lead to deals completed in the future. The Aaron Hicks trade went down at the GM Meetings in 2015. Brian Cashman has said the Mariners first informed him James Paxton was available at the GM Meetings last year. Groundwork for the Curtis Granderson trade was first laid way back in the day at the GM Meetings.

Nov. 11th to 14th: Awards announced
Rookies of the Year on Monday, Managers of the Year on Tuesday, Cy Youngs on Wednesday, and MVPs on Thursday.

Nov. 14th: Qualifying offer decisions due
Chapman will reject it, obviously. Gregorius seems like a candidate to accept the qualifying offer, assuming he gets one. Top free agents like Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, and Madison Bumgarner will of course reject it as well.

Nov. 20th: Rule 5 Draft protection deadline
I'm going to get into the 40-man roster situation in just a moment. For now, here are the Yankees' notable Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects (via Pinstriped Prospects):

• Catchers: None
• Infielders: Oswaldo Cabrera
• Outfielders: Estevan Florial, Isiah Gilliam
• Righties: Deivi Garcia, Rony Garcia, Luis Gil, Brooks Kriske, Luis Medina, Nick Nelson, Miguel Yajure, Alex Vizcaino
• Lefties: Trevor Lane

Mike King was also Rule 5 Draft eligible, though the Yankees added him to the 40-man roster and called him up in September, so he's protected already. Florial, Garcia (Deivi, not Rony), and Gil will definitely be added to the 40-man roster. Garcia (Rony, not Deivi), Kriske, Medina, Nelson, Yajure, and Vizcaino are more on the bubble. Maybe the Yankees will attach one or two of them to J.A. Happ in a salary dump trade? For me, Yajure is a definite add. Not sure any of the other guys have a chance to stick in the big leagues next year. They would likely come back at some point.

Dec. 2nd: Non-tender deadline
Jake Barrett and Tyler Lyons are obvious non-tender candidates who could be dropped off the 40-man roster long before this date. Greg Bird is another one, but I didn't think the Yankees are ready to give up on him. Non-tendering Kyle Higashioka and trying to re-sign him to a minor league contract is too risky. Keep the catching depth, especially with Austin Romine a free agent.

Dec. 9th to 12th: Winter Meetings in San Diego
Typically the biggest week of the offseason. Even if there are only a few transactions -- you can thank MLB front offices for the collusive I mean coincidentally widespread wait, wait, and then wait some more offseason strategy for that -- there will undoubtedly be gobs of trade and free agent rumors this week. Always are, always will be.

Dec. 12th: Rule 5 Draft
The Yankees have not made a Rule 5 Draft pick since taking Cesar Cabral and Brad Meyers in 2011. They (probably) won't make one this year either. The Yankees will undoubtedly lose a player or two though. That happens every year. Also, I do think we'll see more Rule 5 Draft picks in general this year thanks to the new 26th roster spot. It'll be that much easier to carry a Rule 5 pick.

Jan. 10th: Deadline to file salary arbitration figures
The player files what he believes he should be paid in 2020, the team files what they believe the player should be paid in 2020. Most players sign before this deadline and the two sides can still work out a contract of any size after this date. It's just a filing deadline. The Yankees have 11 arbitration-eligible players on the roster at the moment.

Jan. 20th: Hall of Fame class announced
Derek Jeter joins the ballot this year and will undoubtedly be voted into the Hall of Fame, maybe even unanimously now that Mariano Rivera has broken that seal. Bobby Abreu, Roger Clemens, Jason Giambi, Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, and Alfonso Soriano are the other notable former Yankees on this year's Hall of Fame ballot.

Feb. 3rd to 21st: Arbitration hearings
The Yankees last went to an arbitration hearing with Betances in 2017. Before that, their last hearing was with Chien-Ming Wang in 2008. The Yankees and Luis Severino were literally minutes away from their hearing last year when they agreed to his four-year extension. As always, bet against the Yankees going to a hearing. They have been more willing to do so in recent years though.

Feb. 12th: Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa
The most exciting non-news days of the year. Players report, but nothing really happens this day.

Feb. 17th: Position players report
Another exciting non-news day.

Feb. 22nd: Grapefruit League play begins
The Yankees open their 2020 Spring Training schedule at home against the Blue Jays on a Saturday next year. They'll play 31 Grapefruit League games next year plus two exhibition games against the Blue Jays in Montreal. That should be fun.

March 26th: Opening Day!
Literally the earliest Opening Day in baseball history, aside from international openers. The Yankees begin next season on the road against the Orioles. The home opener is a week later against the Blue Jays.

2. 40-man roster situation. As noted in the Rule 5 Draft section above, the Yankees have three no-doubt prospects to add to the 40-man roster in November (Estevan Florial, Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil) plus a host of guys on the bubble (Rony Garcia, Brooks Kriske, Luis Medina, Nick Nelson, Miguel Yajure, Alex Vizcaino). The 40-man roster is currently full. Here's who is coming off and going on in the coming days:

• Impending free agents (8): Dellin Betances, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Gardner, Cory Gearrin, Didi Gregorius, Cameron Maybin, Austin Romine, CC Sabathia
• 60-day injured list (6): Betances, Miguel Andujar, Jake Barrett, Greg Bird, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Holder

Because Betances overlaps, eight free agents come off the 40-man roster but only five 60-day injured list guys rejoin the roster, leaving the Yankees will three open spots. Barrett and Tyler Lyons are obvious candidates to be dropped from the roster this winter, creating two other open spots. I think Nestor Cortes will be dropped at some point too. Also, Domingo German does not count against the 40-man roster while on administrative leave. Assuming Barrett, Cortes, and Lyons all get dropped, that is six open 40-man spots. Three of the six go to Florial, Garcia (Deivi, not Rony), and Gil. The guess here is Nelson and Yajure get added as well. The others (Garcia, Kriske, Medina, Vizcaino) are all unlikely to stick next year, and thus be offered back at some point even if they are taken in the Rule 5 Draft. Florial, Garcia, Gil, Nelson, and Yajure take up five of the six open 40-man roster spots, and remember, the Yankees will (probably) re-sign Gardner. They might re-sign Betances. They're going to have to replace Sabathia. The numbers sound good, six open 40-man spots and five Rule 5 Draft prospects, but the Yankees have to replace those free agents, and those guys require 40-man spots too. The roster crunch isn't quite as severe as it was a few years ago. There is still a crunch though. It's something the Yankees will have to work through this winter. (Aroldis Chapman opting out would open another 40-man spot, but again, he would have to be replaced.)

3. Rothschild fired. The Yankees have their scapegoat. Yesterday morning the Yankees announced pitching coach Larry Rothschild has been fired. He still had another year remaining on his contract, so this wasn't one of those "his contract is up and they're not bringing him back" things. It was a firing, and of course it happened after I wrote a blurb saying I think there may be coaching staff changes coming because Brian Cashman was weirdly noncommittal about the coaches during his end-of-season press conference. He gets asked about the coaches every year at those things and he always has an answer ready, one way or the other. Instead, Cashman gave us this last week:

“This press conference is ahead of the protocols that we go through, so me and Aaron (Boone) are going to have to decide obviously what we want to do next. If we want to make any changes, if we don't want to make any changes. That means reviewing with each individual staff member -- first and foremost, their area of specialties -- and then mapping out moving forward if that’s the best fit for us. I'm not in a position to say yes or no on that because we haven't gone through that process.”

That was a pretty good indication someone was being let go. That someone is Rothschild, who I suppose could catch on with Joe Girardi and the Phillies given their prior relationship (bullpen coach Mike Harkey is very close with Girardi and could follow him to the Phillies too). Anyway, the Yankees never bothered to add pitching at the trade deadline and now the pitching coach falls on the sword after the season. Prepare yourselves for the Yankees to not add pitching this offseason and instead say any improvement will come from the new coach and a full year of Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery. Maybe I'm being too cynical. After all, the Yankees did let go of several minor league coaches after the season, and Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) says Double-A Trenton pitching coach Tim Norton, Low-A Charleston pitching coach Gabe Luckert, and Rookie GCL pitching coach Justin Pope have been let go as well, so it seems Rothschild's firing is part of an organization-wide pitching overhaul. Joel Sherman says the Yankees do not have a replacement pitching coach in mind and will instead go through the process of finding one. I suspect you'll hear David Cone's name mentioned during that process but I have no idea whether he would be a good pitching coach. He sounds good on television and is into analytics, which is a good start, but there's so much more to the job than being a fan favorite and reading FanGraphs. It is pretty much impossible to evaluate coaches and coaching candidates as outsiders, and at this point in my life I am completely indifferent to coaching staffs in general. They are important, obviously. I just can't imagine digging in and having a strong opinion about any coach when we simply don't know much about them. A few years ago teams started hiring assistant hitting coaches and eventually the Yankees caught on. Nowadays teams are hiring assistant pitching coaches -- the Reds have an assistant pitching coach (former Yankees prospect Caleb Cotham!), the Rangers had one from 2017-18, and the Phillies and Red Sox had one prior to their coaching staff changes this offseason (and could have one again) -- and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Yankees follow suit. Triple-A Scranton pitching coach Tommy Phelps and High-A Tampa pitching Jose Rosado were among the minor league coaches retained and those guys have been around a long time. Phelps has been coaching in the system since 2008 and Rosado since 2011. I wouldn't rule them out as pitching coach or assistant pitching coach candidates. The Yankees have promoted a lot of coaches from within in recent years (infield coach Carlos Mendoza, assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere, hitting coach Marcus Thames, first base coach Reggie Willits) and they could do it again with the pitching coach. Will it make a difference? Who knows. I'm of the belief the Yankees need new pitchers more than they needed a new pitching coach, but a new coach could certainly help. I just hope a new pitching coach isn't the only help.

4. Bird watching. Greg Bird has flown south for the winter. He is playing for the Gigantes del Cibao in the Dominican Winter League and is teammates with former Yankees prospects Abi Avelino, Anyelo Gomez, and Jose Ramirez, among others. Bird is 2 for 17 (.118) with two singles, four walks, and five strikeouts through five games. He seems to be running well too (video). The photo the Gigantes used to announce the signing isn't particularly flattering:

Bird looks more like a first base coach than a first baseman there. Anyway, Bird appeared in only 10 games this season before suffering the torn plantar fascia -- his last game was April 13th -- and the rehab process moved slowly. It wasn't until late September that he started to ramp up the baseball activities. "I’m getting fairly close. I should be getting live at-bats fairly soon. I’m hitting (batting practice). I haven’t hit outside yet," he told Brendan Kuty on Sept, 26th. Considering he is playing in games now, would Bird have been a World Series roster option had the Yankees advanced? Probably not. They were locked into DJ LeMahieu at first base and Bird doesn't provide enough of anything (offense, defense, baserunning, versatility) to fill a bench spot, plus he hadn't played in six months. Going from rehab at-bats to World Series games is a big jump. The important thing is Bird is healthy enough to play in winter ball games, though I'm not how long he will stay down there. The Gigantes have 37 games remaining and Bird could stay the rest of the season, but I don't know if that's the plan. Lots of times guys go to winter ball with a certain number of games or plate appearances in mind rather than plan on staying the full season. Whatever it is, Bird is apparently healthy, something he has to prove to the Yankees, other teams (in case he's non-tendered), and probably also himself to some degree. I think it's time to move on, but I don't matter. The Yankees love Bird and he's healthy and playing in games now, and his 2020 salary won't be exorbitant ($1.3M), so I bet they bring him back and give him yet another chance next season. At least he's getting some at-bats in winter ball and the swings he takes in Spring Training won't be his first competitive swings in almost a year.

5. Hicksie's surgery. The Aaron Hicks Tommy John surgery news stinks but it is hardly unexpected. He was told he needed surgery during his second opinion in September, yet he somehow got healthy enough to play (and play well) in the ALCS, which is a minor miracle. Ultimately, Hicks' elbow ligament was still torn, and it was going to have to be repaired at some point, and that point is now. Didi Gregorius had his Tommy John surgery on Oct. 17th and he returned June 7th. Every rehab is different, but Sir Didi gives us a reasonable timetable for Hicks. He's having his surgery tomorrow, Oct. 30th., and the Gregorius timetable suggests Hicks will be back in mid-to-late June. How will he perform when he does return? Who knows. The fact Hicks is a much more disciplined hitter than Gregorius gives me hope he will be more productive when he does return. We'll see. The Yankees gave Hicks a seven-year, $70M extension earlier this year and the first two years of that contract are essentially lost seasons. Injuries limited him to 59 games this season (+1.3 WAR) and the Tommy John surgery will limit him to what, 70 games next season? (Didi played 82 games this year.) The contract covers Hicks' age 29-35 seasons and those age 29 and 30 seasons are pretty much lost causes. When you sign a free agent (or, in Hicks' case, an impending free agent) long-term, you expect the best years right away, and you live with the decline years near the end of the contract. In this case, what were supposed to be the two best years of the Hicks contract were mostly lost to injury. There's no getting those two years back. The Yankees won't get that immediate value up front. Maybe Hicks comes back well from the elbow reconstruction and produces right away next year. That would be cool. I'm not counting on it given the nature of the injury. The Hicks contract is relatively cheap -- $10M annually for a guy you could reasonably project as a +4 WAR center fielder? sign me up -- and the problem is not that it is crippling the Yankees financially. It's that Hicks is a really good player who was not available much this year and won't be available to begin next year. It stinks. (Ginny Searle wrote an interesting article about the recent rash of position player Tommy John surgeries. Check it out.)

6. Inciarte trade? The Yankees need a center fielder now that Aaron Hicks is having Tommy John surgery, and that center fielder will almost certainly be Brett Gardner. I would be stunned if it is not. I have been thinking about Gardner alternatives though (what else am I supposed to do?), and I keep coming back to Ender Inciarte. Back and hamstring injuries limited him to 65 games this past season, during which he hit .247/.343/.397 (93 wRC+) with five homers. He's been in the 91-98 wRC+ range each of the last four years, so, if nothing else, he's consistent. I think Inciarte is a possible fit for a few reasons. One, he is a lefty contact guy (career 12.5% strikeout rate) who is kinda sorta maybe starting to pull the ball in the air a little more often, something that mixes well with the short right field porch. 

Gardner was right around Inciarte's age (29 this week) when he made that adjustment and started taking advantage of the short porch. Maybe Inciarte can do the same. Two, he's a superb defensive center fielder. The various defensive stats have rated him as well-above-average over the years (+35 DRS from 2017-19), and Statcast said he had the quickest first step among all outfielders last year (he was still top 15 around the injuries this year). Three, Inciarte runs the bases very well. That's not just stolen bases. That's going first-to-third on a single, advancing on balls in the dirt, things like that. Even with all the missed time this year, Inciarte is in the top 25 in baserunning runs (+11) since 2017, according to FanGraphs. He's just ahead of noted speedsters Lorenzo Cain (+10.3) and Elvis Andrus (+10.1).  So, even if he's a 90-something wRC+ guy again, the glove and baserunning makes him an above-average contributor.  Four, his contract is pretty good. He signed a five-year, $30.525M extension a few years ago that will pay him $7M in 2020 and $8M in 2021, but his luxury tax hit is only $6.105M. Also, there's a $9M club option ($1.025M buyout) for 2022, so if things really go well, you can keep him that extra year. What are the odds Gardner re-signs for only $6.105M this year? Small, I think. He's getting more. Five, the Yankees have tried to acquire Inciarte in the past. They reportedly asked for him as part of Brian McCann trade talks three years ago, so at some point in time they liked him. That interest may linger. And six, Atlanta will almost certainly make Inciarte available this winter. Cristian Pache and Drew Waters, their two elite center field prospects, both reached Triple-A last season and aren't far away. They also have Ronald Acuna at the MLB level, plus Austin Riley can play left field, and I bet they pick up their $6M club option for Nick Markakis too (there's a $2M buyout, so it's a $4M decision). The Braves have plenty of outfield depth and Inciarte is the most expensive of the bunch. Moving him to clear salary and create an opening for Pache or Waters seems likely. Long story short, Inciarte has an interesting skill set and is at worst a great defender who bats ninth and creates havoc on the bases, and he comes on a decent contract. The Yankees could use him as a center field replacement while Hicks is rehabbing before sliding into a more traditional fourth outfielder's role. And if he forces his way into the lineup more often, great. Inciarte is someone the Yankees could look at with Hicks having his elbow rebuild. They're probably just going to re-sign Gardner though, the older and more familiar Inciarte that costs nothing but cash.

7. AzFL wrap-up. The Arizona Fall League season is already over. MLB moved the season up this year to avoid a long gap between the end of the minor league season and the start of the AzFL. The Salt River Rafters beat the Surprise Saguaros in the Championship Game this past Saturday. Yankees prospects played for Saguaros this year. Here's the performance recap:

• C Donny Sands: 16 G, .204/.306/.315, 3 2B, 1 HR, 8 BB, 12 K
• OF Josh Stowers: 20 G, .131/.312/.180, 0 2B, 1 HR, 13 BB, 27 K
• 1B Brandon Wagner: 20 G, .214/.333/.357, 4 2B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 27 K
• RHP Daniel Bies: 10 G, 11.1 IP, 14 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 14 K, 0 HR
• RHP Aaron McGarity: 10 G, 11.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 15 K, 1 HR
• RHP Glenn Otto: 6 G, 24 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 13 BB, 26 K, 2 HR

Yikes! The Yankees sent a pretty weak crop of the prospects to the AzFL this year and it shows in the numbers. Stowers had an awful AzFL after a so-so regular season. He came over in the Sonny Gray trade -- Stowers was the Reds' second round pick last year -- and hit .273/.386/.400 (135 wRC+) with seven homers, 35 steals in 16 attempts, a 13.9% walk rate, and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 105 games, all with Low-A Charleston. That's not bad, necessarily, I just expected more from a 22-year-old recent high draft pick in Low-A, especially after playing three years at a major college program (Louisville). Shrug. Keith Law (subs. req'd) had some nice things to say about McGarity:

Yankees reliever Aaron McGarity was intriguing as a right-handed specialist option, throwing 92-95 mph fastballs complemented by an 83-85 mph slider that was kind of flat. He did run his fastball in to one left-handed batter, but I didn't see anything else he could use to consistently get lefties out.

Not bad for a 15th round pick and a $125,000 bonus. Otto was arguably the best prospect the Yankees sent to the AzFL this year. He's been injured a bunch since the Yankees made him their fifth round pick in 2017 (only 71.1 pro innings), but it's a quality fastball/curveball combination, and he could move quickly as a reliever. I'm glad he was able to get those innings in in the AzFL. Otherwise it was a very lackluster year in the AzFL and in the farm system in general. 

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The mailbag is returning this Friday and everything will be back to normal. I promise.)