October 22nd, 2019: Arbitration-Eligibles, 2020 Payroll, Qualifying Offers, Hicks, Boone, Minors, Mailbag

It's been a few days and yup, it still annoys me the Yankees held the Astros to 22 runs in six games -- 22 runs in six games! -- and still lost the ALCS. I would've signed up for that run prevention in a heartbeat going into the series. The offense really let the Yankees down in some key moments. Sigh. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as the World Series begins tonight without the Yankees for the tenth consecutive season. 

(Note: Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman will hold their annual end-of-season press conferences Thursday at 12pm ET. Usually some news comes out of those, particularly with injured players who need surgery. Things like that. No idea if the YES Network will carry it.)

(UPDATE: YES will indeed carry Thursday's press conferences.) 

1. Arbitration-eligibles. MLBTR released their annual salary projections for arbitration-eligible players two weeks ago. The Yankees have 12 players up for arbitration this winter, so it's a very big class, and it includes a few important first timers. Here are the projections:

• James Paxton: $12.9M (fourth time as Super Two)
• Aaron Judge: $6.4M (first time)
• Gary Sanchez: $5.6M (first time)
• Tommy Kahnle: $3.0M (second time as Super Two)
• Gio Urshela: $2.2M (first time as Super Two)
• Chad Green: $1.4M (first time)
• Greg Bird: $1.3M (second time)
• Jordan Montgomery: $1.2M (first time as Super Two)
• Luis Cessa: $1.1M (first time as Super Two)
• David Hale: $900,000 (first time)
• Tyler Lyons: $800,000 (second time)
• Jonathan Holder: $800,000 (first time as Super Two)

A few things: One, Hale was designated for assignment when Aaron Hicks came off the 60-day injured list and he elected free agency over the weekend, so he's already gone. Two, Lyons is surely losing his 40-man roster spot this winter, so we can ignore him going forward. Three, the remaining 10 players combined to make about $16M in 2019. Their 2020 projections add up to $35.9M. Their combined salaries will more than double next year. Four, the Yankees can't possibly tender Bird at that number, right? Or any number for that matter. Five, I wonder if Cessa is in danger at that number. He was fine this year, nothing more and nothing less, and spending $1.1M on fine may not be in the cards. The Yankees could trade him and fill the roster spot with a league minimum-ish player (like Hale?). Six, the injuries really cost Judge. He was on track to become a $10M+ player in his first arbitration year -- that's Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, and Francisco Lindor money -- and instead he's projected for $6.4M. That's still a ton of money for a first year arbitration guy, especially one who's only played in 214 of 324 possible games the last two years -- for comparison, Khris Davis went into his first arbitration year with 102 home runs (Judge has 110) and received $5M -- but it's not what it could've been. Seven, Sanchez has a larger projection than I expected. I thought he would be in the $4M range. J.T. Realmuto received $2.9M in his first arbitration year. Yasmani Grandal was at $5.5M in his second year as a Super Two. Dingers pay and Sanchez leads all catchers in homers (by a lot) since Opening Day 2017 despite the injuries and slumps. Good for Gary. Get that money. And eight, I don't think a $1.2M salary will guarantee Montgomery a rotation spot next year. It shouldn't, anyway. I'm totally cool with adding two starters this winter and stashing post-Tommy John surgery Montgomery in Triple-A as the sixth starter. Big arbitration class this year. The raises will chew up $20M or so of whatever the Yankees have to spend this winter.

2. 2020 payroll situation. Since we just went through the arbitration-eligibles, might as well lay out the current 2020 payroll situation as well, just to see where the Yankees sit. Here's what the Yankees have on the books right now (this is luxury tax dollars, not real dollars):

• Guaranteed contracts (10 players): $154.2M
• Arbitration-eligibles (10 players): $35.9M (projected)
• Pre-arbitration-eligibles (7 players to fill out roster): $4.2M (estimated)
• Miscellaneous: $20M (estimated for benefits, remaining 40-man roster)

MLB shifts to a 26-man roster next year but we needed seven pre-arbitration players to fill out the roster because we can't count on Jacoby Ellsbury and his guaranteed contract to fill a roster spot. Anyway, that all adds up to $214.2M. The Yankees are already over $210M without replacing any of their free agents (Dellin Betances, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Austin Romine, CC Sabathia, etc.). That's for this roster:

Some of those roster spots are fungible. Maybe it's Heller instead of Tarpley, or Estrada instead of Wade, or Ford instead of Bird. Point is, that is the current 2020 roster based on guys who are under contract or team control, and it somehow costs more than $210M. The offseason shopping list presumably includes a starting pitcher (maybe two), a backup catcher, and a super utility guy. Someone to be what LeMahieu was supposed to be this year. How do the Yankees get all that with $210M already on the books? Unloading Happ and his $17M salary is one way, but I'm not sure how realistic that is. The Angels and Phillies tried to sign him last winter. Would either take him in a straight salary dump? What about trading Hicks? His value probably isn't high given the whole "I was told I need Tommy John surgery but I'm just gonna keep playing" thing, plus the Yankees would then need to replace Hicks in center field. The wildcard is Chapman's opt-out. He'd walk away from two years and $30M, and would free up $17.2M in luxury tax payroll. The Yankees would also be out a great closer, ALCS walk-off dinger notwithstanding. The luxury tax threshold is $208M next season, so the second tier is $228M and the third tier is $248M. The Yankees managed to stay under the second tier this year. Do they do want to do that again next year? If yes, then gosh, making upgrades (i.e. signing Gerrit Cole) will require major salary reshuffling.  

3. Qualifying offers. According to Jayson Stark, the qualifying offer this offseason will be worth $17.8M. That is down from $17.9M last year. The QO is a one-year contract set at the average of the top 125 salaries in the game, so the QO declining in value is bad news for the MLBPA. The QO became a thing during the 2012-13 offseason and since then it has gone from $13.3M to $14.1M to $15.3M to $15.8M to $17.2M to $17.4M to $17.9M to $17.8M. Steady growth the first five years, slower growth the next three years, and now a decline. The owners must love it. Anyway, free agents who reject the QO are attached to draft pick compensation. The Yankees have eight impending free agents on the roster and only one is a possible QO candidate:

• Dellin Betances: Went from a yes to a no this year due to the injuries.
• Edwin Encarnacion: Not eligible (didn't spend entire season with Yankees).
• Brett Gardner: Nope. They could re-sign him at a much lower salary.
• Cory Gearrin: Not eligible (didn't spend entire season with Yankees).
• Didi Gregorius: Maybe, but probably a no at this point.
• Cameron Maybin: Not eligible (didn't spend entire season with Yankees).
• Austin Romine: Nope.
• CC Sabathia: Retiring, so nope.

Aroldis Chapman would be a slam dunk QO candidate should he opt out. He wouldn't walk away from two years and $30M only to turn around and take one year and $17.8M. I guess he could galaxy brain it and figure $17.8M is better than his scheduled $15M salary next year, and then he'll get to become a free agent after next season with no draft pick attached because he will be ineligible for the QO. Seems unlikely. If Chapman opts out, I suspect he'll reject the QO. This offseason figures to be his last chance to score another big free agent contract. As for Gregorius, I think the QO is unlikely at this point. He had his worst season with the Yankees this year, hitting .238/.276/.441 (84 wRC+) with 16 homers in 344 plate appearances after coming back from Tommy John surgery. This is the other thing: Because the Yankees are going to pay luxury tax this year, they will only be eligible to receive a draft pick after the fourth round as compensation. That's not insignificant -- late fourth round and early fifth round picks came with approximately $400,000 in bonus pool money last year -- but it might not be enough of a reward either. My guess is Gregorius would accept the QO this offseason given the year he just had. He'd get a high-priced one-year contract and a chance to rebuild his stock in a ballpark well-suited to his skills and with a team he knows, then he'd get to go into free agency next offseason with no QO attached. Getting Sir Didi back on a one-year deal wouldn't be a terrible thing for the Yankees, but at that price and with the 2020 payroll situation already being what it is? Eh. I think the Yankees would look to re-sign him to a multi-year deal with a lower annual salary (two or three years at $10M per year?) than risk the QO, especially since the reward is only a draft pick after the fourth round (130-something overall). Chapman is an easy yes. Gregorius and Betances were easy yeses coming into the season. Now Dellin is a definite no given his lost season -- the Yankees could still bring him back with a lower salary than the QO and I hope they do -- and I think Gregorius is a likely no as well. Maybe the Yankees are confident he will rebound next year as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery. Even then, I think the injury and his season have hurt his free agent stock to the point where the QO doesn't make much sense. Too much risk (he accepts and balloons payroll) for not enough reward (only a late fourth round pick). That's a bummer. Unless Chapman opts out, which creates a hole in the bullpen, the Yankees don't figure to have any extra draft picks next year.

4. Hicksie's elbow. Following ALCS Game 6, Aaron Hicks confirmed doctors recommended Tommy John surgery in September. He ignored them, started playing catch on his own, and ... it all worked out? Hicks returned in the ALCS and looked really good at the plate, and he had no issues defensively. Granted, he did not have to cut it loose and really throw the ball with urgency during a game, but I saw him make full effort (or close to full effort) throws during the workouts at Yankee Stadium between the ALDS and ALCS. That's encouraging, I think. "Right now, it feels all right. We'll see. For me right  now, I don't see myself having Tommy John. I was throwing the ball around pretty well. So I don't think so," he said. I'm glad Hicks is doing well and has managed to avoid elbow reconstruction for the time being. That said, given the nature of his injury and the doctor's recommendation, the Yankees have to proceed under the assumption that Hicks will need the surgery at some point, right? His elbow ligament is damaged to the point where surgery was recommended. This is not another Masahiro Tanaka situation. Tanaka was never told he needed Tommy John surgery. A select group of fans and reporters just decided that was the case. Tanaka was told to rehab his injury. Hicks was told to have surgery, and instead rehabbed it. Maybe it all works out. Maybe his elbow gives out during an offseason workout, or Spring Training, or next June. The Yankees are going to have to prepare for the worst here because Hicks plays a skill position. It's one thing to replace a first baseman in-season, you know? Scrambling to find a center fielder is not a good place to be. Mike Tauchman will be out of options next year, so he'll be on the Opening Day roster and is a good enough backup center fielder. I assume the Yankees will re-sign Brett Gardner, giving them another capable backup center fielder. On top of that, I expect the Yankees to pursue a quality center field option to stash in Triple-A. They don't have a center field prospect sitting in the high minors ready to be called up. I think there's a chance Dustin Fowler will get pushed off the A's 40-man roster this winter, so he might be someone the Yankees look to claim on waivers/trade for to beef up their center field depth. Gardner's probably coming back and Tauchman's a good enough backup backup plan. I still think center field depth is an area the Yankees might looked to bolster aggressively over the winter given what we know about Hicks' elbow and the risks associated with Gardner (old) and Tauchman (might not actually be good).

5. Boone's contract. Under normal circumstances, Aaron Boone would get a contract extension this offseason, even after the ALCS defeat. Back-to-back 100-win seasons, an AL East title, overcoming all those injuries, so on and so forth. Plus it's clear now you can't hire just anyone to be a rookie manager and have success (see: Mickey Callaway and Gabe Kapler). Give Boone credit. He improved greatly this year and seems to be cut out for this. The Yankees signed Boone to a three-year contract with a club option. An extension would likely involve picking up the option and tacking on another guaranteed year, locking him in through 2022. That's reasonable under normal circumstances. The Yankees are not normal circumstances though. With few exceptions, they don't negotiate a new contract until the current contract expires. They do that with players, they did it with Joe Girardi every time his contract was up, and they've done it with Brian Cashman every time his contract was up. I have no reason to believe Boone will be different. This would be an appropriate time for Boone and his agent to seek an extension. He just had two very good years and there's only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal. Maybe the Yankees meet them halfway and pick up the option now to avoid a lame duck situation next year, but history suggests they'll wait until the contract expires to negotiate a new one. That's just how the Yankees do business. Boone's contract could become a talking point this offseason though. He's coming up on the last guaranteed year and I have no reason to believe the Yankees are unhappy. It's a matter of when Boone gets an extension, not if.

6. Possible minor league changes. In case you missed it, J.J. Cooper reported MLB has proposed eliminating as many as 42 minor league teams as part of the next Professional Baseball Agreement, the collectively bargained deal between MLB and minor league teams. The PBA expires after next season. Here is a summary of the most significant proposed changes:

• Reduce the minors to rookie ball and four full season levels, which would eliminate short season leagues (so long, Staten Island Yankees and Pulaski Yankees).
• Restructure the existing minor leagues so they make more sense geographically, with Triple-A affiliates moving closer to their Major League parent teams.
• Limit MLB teams to 150-200 minor league contracts. (The Yankees currently have approximately 285 minor leaguers under contract, according to Cooper.)
• Push the draft back until after the College World Series in late June, maybe even as far back as August. Also, MLB wants to trim the draft to 20-25 rounds.
• Create a new league for undrafted players called the Dream League. It would essentially be an MLB sanctioned independent league.
• Raise minor league salaries for all players, including a 50% raise to minimum salaries.

The minor leagues could absolutely use a bit of an overhaul. Rearranging the various leagues to make sense geographically is a good idea, though it won't necessarily be easy, because a Triple-A franchise won't want to be demoted to High-A or something like that. Raising salaries would great news too. Here's the thing though: I have no faith in MLB doing this in a way that is not completely anti-player. MLB teams and owners deserve no benefit of the doubt here. Everything they've done the last few years has indicated the priority is fattening their wallets, even when it hurts the game. MLB teams are willing to raise minor league salaries because they'll also slash the number of minor leaguers they employ, so the owners still manage to cut costs. And seriously, how exactly does eliminating 42 minor league teams work? Those teams don't just go away. Most minor league teams are privately owned businesses. Is MLB just going to pull the rug out on these teams and say sorry, your business is worthless now, sucks about the livelihood of you and your employees? I wouldn't put it past MLB, but that seems like something that could result in a prolonged legal battle. There are also player development ramifications. How do high school draftees or internationally signed teenagers develop with no short season leagues? That jump from rookie ball to Low-A is a big one. There should be a stepping stone in-between there. MLB has a ton of leverage here. The minors are one giant cost for them. They pay minor league player salaries but don't get the gate revenues. The 2021 minor league season can not begin without a PBA and MLB can wait as long as possible since the minor league teams are losing money with no games, not MLB. MLB owners wind up saving money in that case. I don't see this being a one-time thing either. MLB wants to eliminate 42 minor league teams to cut costs. Then, next PBA negotiations, they'll want to cut more teams, and then even more teams the PBA after that. The owners will squeeze and squeeze and squeeze until they maximize their profits, no matter how much it hurts the game. I dunno. I think there are some things that can be done to improve the minor leagues as a whole. I just don't trust MLB to do it in a way that benefits baseball long-term. At every turn MLB has shown it would rather stuff $1 in its pocket now than invest and have $2 tomorrow. The looming PBA negotiations won't get any headlines, but make no mistake, they are very important to the future of baseball.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Dan asks: If the 2019 Yankees met the 2018 Red Sox in the ALCS, what would be your prediction for who would win and in how many games?

I would go Red Sox in six. The 2019 Yankees were better than the 2018 Yankees, even with all those injuries, but the 2019 Red Sox were ridiculously good. They had a magical season where everything went right. James Paxton and a bullpen game rather than J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia would help. I still think the Red Sox would win that series. That team was so good it was annoying. Everything came together.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

John asks: Quick question on EE. As you highlighted in your thoughts post, EE hasn't been too great in the playoffs, especially with the 1-15 with RISP. Fans will probably be clamoring to not pick up his option, but how much do you think this weighs into the team's decision? Does this type of post season performance weigh in at all on their decision? Or will they take a much longer term view on that? 

I don't think it'll matter. The Yankees are very much a big picture organization. They won't let six bad games (eight bad games, really) drive their decision-making process. Will they take it into consideration? Sure. But these days teams can measure swing paths, bat speed, exit velocity, things like that. The process stats will take priority over the results.

Edwin Encarnacion's contract includes a $20M club option with a $5M buyout, meaning it's a $15M decision. I don't see the Yankees picking it up. Never did. Encarnacion's market is limited to American League teams and I don't think the bidding war will be fierce enough to push his salary back into the $15M range. I could see one year and $7M or so. This always felt like a pure rental.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

David asks: What do you see re: the de-juiced ball and Tanaka? Movement on pitches? Has he reverted to his old splitter grip?

Masahiro Tanaka's splitter did have more downward action in the postseason than it did during the regular season. He's gradually been getting more and more vertical drop on the splitter as the season progressed:

Tanaka changed his splitter grip in July and, after that, the pitch gradually picked up more and more drop. That suggests he was becoming more familiar with the grip. Right now, it's difficult to say how (or how much) the postseason baseball has impacted the splitter. Something with the ball has changed, clearly. It's not carrying nearly as much. Are the seams higher? Is the core softer? Is the leather less slick? I have no idea. 

All we have is 30 postseason games worth of data (observational and statistical) telling us the ball is not carrying the way it did during the regular season. It's too early to know what this means for Tanaka's splitter, and for all we know, the rocket ball could return next season. Pretty crazy that no one seems to have any confidence that the baseball, the single most important piece of equipment in the game, will not be altered in a way that leads to a drastic swing in on-field results (again). Seems ... not great. It's not great.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. Friday will continue to be mailbag day going forward. I just figured I'd empty the inbox today because I ignored the mailbag during the postseason.)