Thoughts following ALCS Game 6

Sometimes I hate being a genius baseball blogger. I called Astros in six before the ALCS and in six games the Astros did win. They were the better team all season and they were the better team in the best-of-seven series, even with the Yankees healthier than they were at pretty much any point in 2019. Houston is gonna demolish the Nationals in the World Series. I know Washington has a great rotation, believe me, but the Astros can match that rotation and they're better at literally everything else. Astros in five. I would not be surprised to see a sweep. Anyway, here are some thoughts now that the season is over.

1. A failure. The 2019 season was a failure. That doesn't mean it wasn't a fun season or that we should forget all about it, but the Yankees are in World Series or bust territory right now, and they didn't win the World Series this year. That's an organizational failure. This franchise is not in the business of celebrating regular season wins and ALCS defeats. They are trying to win a title and the three postseason exits with this core have gotten progressively worse:

• 2017: Lost Game 7 of the ALCS.
• 2018: Lost to the rival Red Sox in the ALDS.
• 2019: Walked off in the ALCS.

Windows can close very quickly and each year that passes without a World Series title with this core is an opportunity they can never get back, and it makes it that much more likely they never win a championship with this group. Maybe I'm being overly dramatic, but I really don't think I am. There's no getting the 2019 season back. This is a year the Yankees won't win the World Series. The Yankees already spent Aaron Judge's dirt cheap pre-arbitration years resetting the luxury tax, and, frankly, I have no idea how committed this ownership group is to pursuing a World Series championship. That is simultaneously the most damning thing you can say about an ownership group and completely par for the course for baseball in 2019. We should include the front office in that too, because as good as they were during the regular season, the Yankees had very real and very obvious flaws, and nothing was done at the trade deadline. We instead got excuses about the asking prices being too high. Fair or not, that to me was the brain trust admitting they believed this team was not good enough and not worth reinforcing. That was the message sent. The 2017 team got help at the deadline. The 2018 team got help at the deadline. The 2019 team battled valiantly through all those injuries and nothing. No help at the deadline. What a shame. The Astros already have one championship with their core and could win a second this year. The Red Sox got a title out of their core. The Giants got three! Even the Royals won a World Series with their foundation before everyone left as a free agent. The Yankees are still trying to win that first title with this group, and ownership is instead worried about payroll three, four, five years down the line, as if we have any idea what the team will look like then. When you win 100 games each year and you're the sport's marquee franchise and your brand is built on winning, and you don't win the World Series, it's a failure. Sorry, but it is. Fun season and all, but a failure, and wholly unsatisfying. "It’s a failure. In Spring Training we talked about winning the division, putting ourselves in a good spot in the postseason and the World Series, and we came up short. So no matter how many games we won in the regular season or anything else we did, the season’s a failure," Judge said last night.

2. Too many mistakes. The Yankees were going to have to play near flawless baseball to beat the Astros and they certainly did not do that. Most notably, they blew a lead against Justin Verlander in Game 2 and stranded the bases loaded in the first inning in Games 3 and 4. Last night's game was riddled with costly unforced errors. A quick recap:

• Not playing the infield in in the sixth inning (this play). That allowed an insurance run to score. The Yankees play the infield in in the second inning on random Tuesdays during the regular season. No infield in in the sixth inning down a run with your season on the line?
• Aaron Judge getting doubled off first in the seventh (this play). Tremendous diving play by Michael Brantley, who's not exactly known for his defense. Great, great catch. But where in the world was Judge going? That erased a late-inning opportunity to score.
• Not pitching around Jose Altuve in the ninth inning. Aroldis Chapman threw six straight pitches out of the zone and was behind in the count 2-0 on Altuve, and the punchless Jake Marisnick was on deck after replacing Brantley defensively an inning earlier.

Not playing the infield in and Judge getting doubled off are clear mistakes that should not happen in any game, let alone a game of that magnitude. Pitching around Altuve in the ninth inning was not as cut and dried. Pitching around him means pushing the winning run into scoring position, which is incredibly risky. That said, it's an elite hitter (Altuve) vs. a bench guy (Marisnick), and after falling behind 2-0 and having four straight fastballs sail up and away to right-handed batters, it was pretty clear Chapman would go to his slider to get back into the strike zone. He's done that plenty the last two years. Altuve hit the 2-1 slider like he knew it was coming. It was a hanger and he did not miss it, likely because he knew Chapman could not find the zone with his fastball, so anything over the plate would likely be the slider. He could sit on it. With Marisnick on deck, I thought pitching around Altuve was the way to go. I get trusting your great closer to get the great hitter, but, with the season on the line, I'll take my chances with Marisnick at the plate over Altuve. The Yankees were way too sloppy and careless throughout the ALCS. The sloppiness was at its worst in Game 4 and the carelessness was at its worst in Game 6. The Astros are way too good to give extra outs or even the slightest advantage. "Certainly not a walk, an intentional walk situation, but kind of pitching him aggressively like you're ahead the whole time, and I think Chappie did. He just hung a breaking ball," Aaron Boone said about possibly pitching around Altuve in the ninth.

3. The RISP battle. As bad as they were with men on base in the series, the Yankees out-hit the Astros with runners in scoring position in the ALCS. The Yankees hit .171/.310/.286 with runners in scoring position in the series, which is objectively horrible. Do you know what the Astros hit in those situations? They hit .109/.222/.326. Awful. The difference is the homers. The Astros had five -- five! -- hits with runners in scoring position in the entire ALCS, and three were three-run homers, including Yuli Gurriel's first inning homer in Game 6. The Yankees had six hits with runners in scoring position in the series and only one left the yard. That was the Aaron Hicks homer against Justin Verlander. Remember kids, home runs win championships. The overall offensive numbers for the ALCS are hideous:

• Astros: .179/.281/.318 and 22 runs
• Yankees: .214/.289/.343 and 21 runs
• Combined: .197/.284/.331 and 3.58 runs per game

So many players on both teams had a terrible series. Yordan Alvarez was a zero. Gurriel was mostly quiet, ditto George Springer. For the Yankees, Gary Sanchez and Brett Gardner were horrible, and Edwin Encarnacion went all 2014 Alfonso Soriano between the ALDS and ALCS. He got old quick and was overmatched in every single at-bat. Aaron Boone said sitting Giancarlo Stanton last night was his call but that has to be a lie. He has to be covering for Stanton and the quad injury. Even if Stanton wasn't available, Encarnacion should not have started Game 6. Put Cameron Maybin in the lineup at that point. Encarnacion was that bad. The motto all year was Next Man Up, but the Next Man was never given a chance when Encarnacion was flailing away*. The Yankees led baseball in hitting with runners in scoring position (129 wRC+) and with men on base (130 wRC+) during the regular season. The offensive talent is in place and that production was there throughout the regular season. It was not there during these six games in mid-October, and obviously the guys on the mound factor into that to a certain degree. If you'd have told me before the series that the Yankees would hold the Astros to 22 runs in six games, with eight of the 22 coming in one game, I would've started planning World Series content. The run prevention was mostly great. Too many times the Yankees did not cash with men on base, and while the Astros stunk at it too, they sprinkled in enough big blows to win four games.

* If only the Yankees had a young live-bodied player with elite bat speed who performed well when pushed into everyday duty early in the year and should've been given a chance to build on that success. Too bad such the Yankees didn't have such a player. Shame.

4. Worn down bullpen. Last night Tommy Kahnle became the first (and only) Yankees reliever this year to pitch three consecutive days, and he looked worn down. He was very wild and was visibly reaching back to generate velocity. Chad Green looked out of gas in Game 4 to me and he didn't look much better last night, even though the three-run home run he gave up to Yuli Gurriel came on a not horrible pitch. Look at the location:

That's a 95 mph fastball running in on Gurriel's hands. Usually that pitch is yanked foul or it breaks the hitter's bat. Somehow Gurriel was able to get inside the ball -- look how tight his hands are to his body -- and not only keep it fair, but elevate it and hit it hard enough for a homer into the Crawford Boxes. I'm not sure what you're supposed to do there other than say, "damn, not sure how Gurriel got to that." Anyway, Green and Kahnle being fatigued can be traced right back to Adam Ottavino being trash. His short, ineffective outings in both the ALDS and ALCS meant everyone else had to pick up the slack. Also, this was the plan going into the postseason, to ride the bullpen hard. I hope -- hope -- the Yankees now see that using the same 4-5 relievers every game is a not a viable strategy. Super bullpens are great. Give me as many good relievers as possible. But asking them to do what the Yankees asked them to do this October is too much. Even if the Yankees managed to come back and win the ALCS, I have no idea how this bullpen was supposed to remain effective in the World Series. Ottavino was unplayable and Green and Kahnle were on fumes. "That’s why we’re relievers, not starters. You overexpose guys, it’s inevitable that eventually they’re going to get got a little bit. We came really close with our formula. I still think starting pitching is what’s going to get you a World Series championship at the end of the day," Zack Britton said last night, refreshingly. 

5. Pitching pitching pitching. Immediately after the season ends, it can be easy to get tunnel vision and focus on whatever caused the Yankees to get eliminated. In this case, their offense stunk in the ALCS, and I suspect there will be lots of chatter about shaking up the lineup in the coming weeks. You've gotta avoid falling into that trap though. Six games in mid-October should not define the organizational plan going forward. The Yankees lost the 2017 ALCS because they couldn't hit on the road. They lost the 2018 ALDS because their starters stunk. They lost the 2019 ALCS because they didn't get The Big Hit with men on base. There's a new problem each year. Take a step back and look at the Yankees overall, and it's clear to me starting pitching has to be the top priority this offseason. Their current rotation depth chart looks like this heading into the winter:

1. Luis Severino
2. James Paxton
3. Masahiro Tanaka
4. J.A. Happ
5. Domingo German (likely to be suspended at least part of next year)
6. Jordan Montgomery

There's an obvious need for another starter -- the Yankees could use two starters, really -- and not just a mid-rotation innings guy. A top-end starter to push Severino down to No. 2, Paxton down to No. 3, and Tanaka to No. 4. That would be ideal. The Yankees should also look to make upgrades elsewhere on the roster, of course, but starting pitching has to be the top priority. They need more innings next year to avoid overworking their relievers, both during the regular season and postseason, and they need more quality innings too. Once adjusted for ballpark, New York's starters were 14th in baseball with a 98 ERA- in 2019. That essentially means the rotation was 2% better than average. Only one other division winner had a park-adjusted rotation that was not at least 10% better than average (Braves at 95 ERA-). The fact of the matter is the two World Series teams have No. 3 starters (Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke) who would have been the Yankees No. 1 starter this postseason. The rotation was not good enough this year and that's what made the quiet trade deadline so infuriating. The Yankees have position player talent and a quality bullpen, and they should of course look to add even more talent to it this winter. There is not enough talent in that rotation though. It was always going to take a minor miracle to win the World Series when getting five innings from the starter felt like a win. That the Yankees pitched so well overall in the ALCS doesn't change anything. The Yankees have let too many high-end starters slip through their fingers in recent years and pretty much all of them (Corbin, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander) are in the World Series. It's not a coincidence the teams that did land those guys are playing for a title.

6. Chasing Gerrit Cole. I am sure we're going to spent lots of time discussing Gerrit Cole this offseason, so I don't want to get too deep into it right now. For now, all I'm going to say is Cole is the best and most obvious free agent fit for the Yankees since CC Sabathia back in 2008-09. Even last offseason, you could argue Bryce Harper and Manny Machado were luxuries more than necessities, and nitpick how they fit both short and long-term. That is not possible with Cole. He is everything the Yankees need. He's an ace in his prime, and he fits the organizational philosophy as a high-velocity, high-spin, high-strikeout starter. Do you remember what the Yankees did when Sabathia was a free agent? They offered him the largest pitching contract in baseball history (six years and $140M, I believe was the number) on the very first day of free agency. He was never going to take the first offer, but on day one the Yankees made it clear to Sabathia that they wanted him, and made it clear to other teams to not even bother trying unless you're prepared for a serious bidding war. They have to do something like that with Cole again. Overwhelm him early in free agency -- I reckon the bidding will eventually get into the seven-year, $240M range -- and get him focused on the Yankees before other teams start wining and dining him. I'm sure the Astros will make an effort to re-sign him. The Angels will probably make a run at the hometown kid, and I bet the Rangers make a big push with their new ballpark opening. You can never rule out the Cubs or Dodgers, or even the Nationals, especially if Stephen Strasburg opts out. The Yankees have been looking for a bona fide ace since Sabathia entered his decline phase -- Masahiro Tanaka was that guy for a little while, but only a little while, and Luis Severino has hit some stumbling blocks since the middle of last season -- and now one is available for nothing but cash (and a draft pick). The Yankees missed out on Justin Verlander because they didn't want to take on his contract at a time they were focusing on resetting the luxury tax. They didn't sign Corbin because they were afraid the sixth year would screw up their 2024 payroll. They are paying for those mistakes now -- arrogant mistakes, I'd call them -- and if suffering another early postseason exit isn't enough to motivate the Yankees to blow other teams out of the water for Cole, I don't know what it'll take. If the Yankees aren't going to spend money on this guy this offseason, when will they?

7. Rapid fire thoughts. Poor DJ LeMahieu. That game-tying two-run home run is gonna go right next to Alfonso Soriano's go-ahead homer in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series as one of the biggest and most clutch forgotten home runs in Yankees history. I haven't even gone back to watch a replay because I can't stomach the way that game ended ... had Aroldis Chapman been able to keep the Astros at bay, I wanted Luis Severino to pitch next. The only guys the Yankees had left in the bullpen were Ben Heller, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Tyler Lyons. I can't see putting the season in their hands over Severino, even when he was slated to start Game 7. Go to Severino after Chapman and figure out Game 7 when you clinch a Game 7 ... Aaron Hicks confirmed he was indeed told he needed Tommy John surgery when he went for his second opinion in September. He said he doesn't anticipate having it this offseason because he feels pretty good. "For me right now, I don't see myself having Tommy John. I was throwing the ball around pretty well, so I don't think so," he said. We'll see ... Gio Urshela finally busted out in Game 6. He went 2-for-18 (.111) in Games 1-5 and 3-for-3 with a walk and a homer in Game 6. Better late than never, but still late. At least he can go into the offseason on a positive note ... since winning the 2009 World Series, the Yankees are 7-16 in the ALCS, and three of the seven wins came in 2017. Also, since 2003, the Yankees are 15-2 against the Twins in the postseason and 38-51 against all other teams in the postseason. If not for that World Series championship a decade ago, I have to think fan angst would be even higher than it right now, and deservedly.

8. Patreon notes. Just FYI: I'm gonna shift back to the regular Tuesday and Friday schedule now that the Yankees have been eliminated. I never planned to write after every postseason game, it just kinda happened. I want to do some sort of season review series here, I just need to come up with a Patreon friendly format. Also, I'm not planning to do a full-fledged offseason plan this winter (2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19) because my goodness, those took forever. The first year I did it, it was fun. The second year it felt like more of an obligation. The third year, I hated it. I have what I think is a pretty neat idea in mind to serve as an offseason preview/what I would do offseason plan alternative. That'll be posted ... soon. Not sure when exactly, but at some point before the end of the World Series. Thanks for the support, everyone. It was a fun season even though the Yankees ultimately fell short.