Quick thoughts prior to ALCS Game 4

As expected, ALCS Game 4 was rained out yesterday and it will be made up Friday. Good call. It poured in New York last night. There was no way they could play and waiting around for a playable window that never came would've been annoying. The Yankees and Astros will now play Games 4-7 on four consecutive days. I don't believe the rainout favors one team over the other, but I do think the Yankees can benefit from it. Some quick thoughts before the ALCS resumes tonight.

1. Tanaka in Game 4. Rather than go with the originally planned bullpen game, Aaron Boone announced Masahiro Tanaka will start Game 4 instead. He's on normal rest and it is so very obviously the correct move. Tanaka has been the Yankees best starter this postseason and it's not particularly close. They are down 2-1 in the series and Game 4 is a must-win. I mean, it's not a literal must-win, but it's a must-win. Tanaka gives the Yankees the best chance to win Game 4 and even up the series. A much better chance than a bullpen game would've last night, I think. The Yankees get to start their best one game sooner in the series than expected.

2. Paxton in Game 5. Aaron Boone also indicated James Paxton will start Game 5 on normal rest, barring something crazy happening in Game 4, in which case the Yankees are probably screwed anyway. "I plan on him pitching Game 5," Boone said. This means Paxton will get to pitch at home in Yankee Stadium rather than on the road in Houston, where he struggled twice this year. Also, Minute Maid Park strongly favors right-handed hitters thanks to the Crawford Boxes, and the Astros have a lot of very good righty hitters. Now those righties won't get to face the lefty starter in their righty friendly home ballpark. Paxton was better at home (3.35 ERA and 3.62 FIP) than on the road (4.33 ERA and 4.12 FIP) this year, so he'll get to pitch Game 5 at home and in front of the Yankee Stadium fans rather than Game 6 in hostile territory. I see that as a positive.

3. Verlander in Game 5. Similar to the Yankees, the Astros originally announced a bullpen game for Game 4, but changed gears after the rainout. Manager A.J. Hinch said they'll start Zack Greinke in Game 4 and Justin Verlander in Game 5. I'd do the same thing. The Yankees blew a chance to beat Verlander in Game 2 and, if nothing else, they wasted opportunities to make Game 3 interesting against Gerrit Cole. They still have to beat at least one of those guys at some point to win the ALCS. If you have to beat Verlander, I'd rather take my shot at home in Yankee Stadium on normal rest in Game 5 than in Minute Maid Park with extra rest in Game 6. Including the postseason, Verlander has faced the Yankees seven times since joining the Astros. He's allowed six runs in 36.2 innings in Houston and four runs in 13.2 innings in New York. The Yankees are built for their ballpark and Yankee Stadium can be an intimidating place in October. Give me Verlander in the Bronx over Verlander in Houston.

4. Stanton's return? The Game 4 rainout gives Giancarlo Stanton another day to rest and let that quad strain heal. Aaron Boone did not commit to Stanton being in Game 4 lineup --  "I’m not sure. I’m not really close to making that decision yet. That will be something we kind of work through today and possibly even tomorrow before I make that decision," Boone said yesterday -- but I never expected him to come out and say Stanton will play in Game 4, so that doesn't mean much. Point is, the extra day to rest and heal up can only help. Stanton last played Saturday, so that would be four days to rest before Game 4, and he took regular on-field batting practice and did some light running before Game 3, so it's not like he's been sitting around doing nothing. I don't know whether Stanton will play in Game 4. Hopefully he does. All I know is the rainout makes it more likely he does play in Game 4 because he had the extra day to rest and get treatment. Even if he can only DH, getting Giancarlo back in the lineup is huge. DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and hope this is the at-bat the other guys snap out of it is only going to take you so far.

Maybe there's an Astros blogger-turned-Patreoner somewhere explaining why the Game 4 rainout benefits the Astros (they can throw Justin Verlander a game earlier, possibly avoid the bullpen game, etc.) and gives them the upper hand going forward. I think this is one of those situations you could argue either way. For the Yankees, being able to start Masahiro Tanaka in Game 4 when you're down 2-1 in the series is a clear positive to come from the rainout. So too would be getting Giancarlo Stanton back. Hopefully everything works out and the Yankees can make this a best-of-three series tonight.