Thoughts following ALCS Game 3

Homefield advantage has been lost. The Astros outplayed the Yankees on both sides of the ball in Game 3 last night and now hold a 2-1 series lead. New York's best case scenario now is winning the next two games at home, and having to beat either Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole in Houston. Daunting. Here are some thoughts after the Game 3 loss.

1. Missed opportunities. The Yankees lost Games 2 and 3 because they wasted way too many opportunities. You have to play near flawless baseball to beat a team as good as the Astros and the Yankees have decidedly not done that. They let a lead slip away in a Justin Verlander start in Game 2 -- I know it was a one-run lead with five innings to go, but when you spend the season saying you're going to smother teams with your bullpen in October and that happens, you look silly -- and they could not jump on a less than sharp Gerrit Cole. Cole looking as shaky as he did early in Game 3 was the best case scenario for the Yankees, yet they let him off the hook time and time again. Three times in the first five innings they had at least two men on base. Cole executed some big time pitches at key moments (that Aaron Judge strikeout with two men on base in the second inning came on nasty, nasty stuff) and the Yankees had some terrible at-bats at key moments. Brett Gardner flying out harmlessly to center and Edwin Encarnacion popping up with two runners on-base in the first inning stand out. That Cole still threw seven scoreless innings against the team that led MLB in runs scored during the regular season in their building speaks to how good he is. That's an ace outing. Didn't have his A+ command and he still got through seven scoreless innings against a great team on the road. The Yankees had a chance to win Game 2 and, if nothing else, ample opportunity to make Game 3 interesting. Neither happened, and now they're down 2-1 and have lost homefield advantage. Letting a winnable Verlander start slip away and not jumping a vulnerable Cole is how you wind up home in October rather than parading down the Canyon of Heroes. "It's obviously a little frustrating we weren't able to break through with him. But I think up and down we gave ourselves a chance. And anytime you're facing a guy like that, you want that kind of traffic. And we had that in several innings. He made big pitches when he had to," Aaron Boone said.

2. Gleyber batting fifth. Why in the world is Gleyber Torres not hitting third? Did it work too well in Game 1 or something? It's not only that he's lower in the order and is thus less likely to get that extra at-bat in the ninth inning -- it would've taken four baserunners to get him to the plate in the ninth inning last night rather than two -- it's that the guys ahead of him in the lineup have been terrible. Brett Gardner and Edwin Encarnacion are a combined 3-for-25 (.120) with two walks and 11 strikeouts in the ALCS. Aaron Boone's explanation for batting Gardner third and Torres lower in the order was ... not good. It was not good:

"They don't have lefties (in the bullpen) but they have guys that are better at getting lefties out. So in a lot of ways it's the same difference. So you're still trying to -- when we do have two or three lefties in there splitting them up because you don't want to give their guys that are really good righty-on-righty long lanes. Same can be said for splitting up their guys that are more their lefty assassins. You've got to not get caught up in what they are -- right, left-handed -- and what they get out. When we can we'll space them out. Obviously we don't have that luxury, because we're very right-handed usually. But I'll space them out when I can." 

Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Aaron Judge are the only Yankees hitting right now. Aaron Hicks looked pretty good last night, but who knows. He's just back from a two-month layoff. The Yankees have three dudes doing damage -- LeMahieu, Judge, and Torres are a combined 14-for-38 (.368) in the ALCS -- and they need to bat as much as possible to win this series. Stack them together in the lineup and maximize your chances to do damage. Don't spread them out hoping to create the illusion of lineup depth. All you're doing is introducing outs around your key hitters. How different does the first inning -- heck, the entire game -- play out if Gleyber bats with two runners on base and no outs in the first inning last night? Maybe nothing changes at all. I would've liked to have been able to find out though. Gerrit Cole even admitted he pitched around Torres with two on and two out (emphasis mine):

"The first inning DJ did a great job on a good low-and-in fastball to drive it up the middle, just classic DJ. Judge puts us in a hole, beating the shift. I don't know if he was trying or if he just got it off the end of the bat. But woke the fans up. Still playing with the lead at that point. But needed to make some pitches. Fell behind Gleyber, wasn't going to mess around there, just on to the next one. And made another good pitch to Didi to get out of it."

Does Cole pitch around Torres if he's hitting two on and no outs rather than two on and two outs? No. No he almost certainly does not. Sometimes I say things that sound like a good idea in my head but sound completely asinine when I put virtual pen to paper. I don't think this is one of those things. To beat a team as obnoxiously good as the Astros, you need your best players to be your best players, and they have to play more than everyone else. Burying Torres, now a .417/.481/.958 (267 wRC+) hitter this postseason, in the lower half of the lineup is malpractice. LeMahieu, Judge, and Torres are going to have to carry the Yankees to victory, so give them the best chance to do it. Stack 'em together and give them the most at-bats. Not enough other guys are hitting to spread them out. Don't let fear of what the Astros might do with their bullpen dictate your lineup. Take it right to them and put your best foot forward because believe me, the Astros were thrilled to see Gardner and Encarnacion batting before Torres last night.

3. Stanton's availability. Twice Aaron Boone has said Giancarlo Stanton is available as a pinch-hitter and twice Stanton has not pinch-hit, which leads me to believe Boone is just saying that so the Astros think Giancarlo's available even though he's really not. "It’s pretty similar to 48 hours ago ... It’s not the best but I’m able to hit. We’re at least that far right now. Don’t have much time to -- time is not on my side right now. Doing what I can," Stanton told Brendan Kuty yesterday. The Yankees are generating so little offense right now that, if he's healthy enough to just hit, Giancarlo has to be in the lineup at DH. Sit Edwin Encarnacion, sit Gio Urshela and put Encarnacion at first, whatever. Figure out a way to get Stanton in there at DH because this ...

• Edwin Encarnacion: 1 for 12
• Brett Gardner: 2 for 14
• Didi Gregorius: 1 for 12
• Gary Sanchez: 1 for 13
• Gio Urshela: 2 for 11

... is absolutely not working. That's five starting position players going a combined 7-for-62 (.113) in Games 1-3 of the ALCS. DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, and Gleyber Torres can not do it all themselves. Stanton was having great at-bats before the injury and heck, he hit a loud opposite field solo home run on the bad quad in Game 1. Even if he can't run at full speed -- obviously he won't be able to so soon after a quad strain -- get him in there for the bat. Stanton can still impact the baseball and the Yankees are short on impact hitters right now. Playing hurt is usually a terrible idea -- admirable, but often terrible because the player is compromised -- but the Yankees don't need Giancarlo to play the field or even run the bases well. Just go out and hit, something the team has not done enough collectively the last two games. The Yankees need to get Stanton back in the lineup right away. They'll need their most talented players on the field as much as possible to beat that club. Hopefully the likely rainout today buys him another day to rest and he can be in the lineup come Game 4. Stanton missing two games has already been costly.

4. Severino's outing. Not a good start for Luis Severino. Not a disaster start either, but two runs and 97 pitches in 4.1 innings isn't good enough when you're matched up against Gerrit Cole. It was impressive that he settled down and was able to get the ball into the fifth inning after throwing more than 60 pitches in the first two innings, but yeah, he wasn't very good. Severino's slider was not cooperating at all -- both home runs came on sliders that spun right over the plate -- so he had to lean on his changeup a bunch, and he had a hard time locating his fastball. He had to scale it back to 93-94 mph to get his heater over the plate. The 96-97 mph fastballs were all over the place. Mostly though, the Astros worked very long at-bats and fouled away pitches seemingly at will. Severino has made 74 starts since Opening Day 2017, postseason included, and the 23 foul balls last night were the 15th most he's allowed in those 74 starts. Houston has the most disciplined lineup in the game -- they had the lowest strikeout rate (18.2%) and the highest walk rate (10.1%) in baseball during the regular season -- and it was on full display last night. They made Severino work hard for every single out and goodness, I thought it was a big mistake sending him out for the fifth inning. That felt like Aaron Boone trying to steal outs from his starter after the bullpen worked a lot in Game 2. Fortunately it didn't hurt them, but geez. I know the Yankees are built around their bullpen and they want to lean on it throughout October. I totally get that. Even with that plan though, the rotation is not giving them enough. Severino put the Yankees in an early hole last night and again the bullpen was asked to absorb a sizeable workload. "Obviously really had to labor there in that first inning, 36 pitches, then had to work really hard in the second inning, and I actually thought he settled in. As the night went on, I thought he got stronger. I thought overall he competed really well. Obviously got himself in some trouble there, a couple of solo homers, but overall I thought he was pretty good," Boone said.

5. Rainout coming. At some point soon, likely early this morning, MLB will announce Game 4 is postponed due to rain. The rain will start around lunchtime and end in the wee hours of the morning. MLB won't sit around and hope a window appears. They'll bang the game and play it on Friday's scheduled off-day, which means Games 4-7 will be played on four straight days. That stinks. The Yankees will have to win three times in four days to beat the Astros and advance to the World Series, and they won't be able to lean on their bullpen as much because those guys have already been worked hard this month, and there's just no way they can pitch four times in four days and stay effective. It would take a minor miracle. It feels like the Yankees have one full starter (Masahiro Tanaka) and two half-starters (James Paxton and Luis Severino) right now given how Paxton and Severino have pitched this postseason. They're not providing length or even high-quality innings in short bursts. And the thing is, this was the plan. Take the two times through the lineup starts and hand it over to the bullpen. It is becoming clear using the same four or five relievers every game is not a viable postseason strategy, even with the built-in off-days. With four games in four days coming up (I should say potentially coming up, because only Games 4-5 are guaranteed), the Yankees are going to need someone -- anyone -- to turn in a bona fide ace outing to win the ALCS. They need seven innings and one run from someone at some point. Tanaka seems to be the only guy remotely capable of providing a start like that at the moment. Either the Yankees get a great start (or, call me crazy, more than one great start) at some point in the ALCS, or they're down in bullpen flames. "We're going to need some length, and Sevy did get us into the fifth today and Masa six the first game. So really, it's one short outing that we had ahead of an off-day. But confident that our starters can give us that. Obviously one of these days we'll kind of bullpen it and have to go that way. But I'm confident that they can get us deeper into the game," Aaron Boone said.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Adam Ottavino has to be removed from the Circle of Trust. That's it. His struggles date back to mid-September and he's neither missing bats nor getting outs. With Tommy Kahnle being such a weapon against lefties, I guess that means Chad Green has to take over as the primary righty matchup guy. Ottavino can't be trusted right now ... Aaron Hicks looked pretty good yesterday, no? No hits, but he worked a 10-pitch walk and a five-pitch walk against Gerrit Cole. That great eye at the plate is still working. No idea if he can drive the baseball after the long layoff, but at least he seems to be seeing it well ... the longer this goes on, the more the unjuiced ball annoys me. How can you play the entire season with one baseball, then change it in October? People bitch about September callups because they play the most important games of the year with a different set of the rules than the rest of the season, but changing the baseball in October is far worse. It's an enormous fundamental change to the game. Now that MLB is in bed with casinos, isn't it at least a little suspicious? There seem to be two possible explanations: MLB changed the ball intentionally or MLB is incompetent and can't control the quality of their product (MLB owns Rawlings, the league baseball manufacturer), neither of which is good ... in case you're wondering what the Yankees are now up against historically, there have been 93 best-of-seven series tied 1-1 after two games. The Game 3 winner went on to win the series 61 times, or 65.6% of the time. Not dead yet, but dying.

UPDATE: As expected, MLB announced Game 4 has been postponed. The makeup game is Friday at 7pm ET. Aaron Boone strongly indicated yesterday that Masahiro Tanaka will start Game 4 on normal rest. The Yankees have to use a bullpen game at some point from Games 4-7 and they can push that bullpen game back as far as Game 6. Because they are behind in the series, I think they should start Tanaka and James Paxton in Games 4-5 on normal rest, then figure out the bullpen game later. We'll see. Also, the rainout gives Giancarlo Stanton another day to rest, so hopefully he'll be back in the lineup tomorrow.