Quick thoughts prior to ALCS Game 3

The ALCS shifts from Minute Maid Park to Yankee Stadium later today. The series is tied 1-1 and that makes Game 3 an important swing game. Win today and the Yankees will have a chance to close out this series at home. Lose today and the best case scenario is having to beat Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole in Houston to advance. Here are some quick thoughts prior to Game 3.

1. Perspective. I'm still a little chapped about the Game 2 outcome, so I figure this is a good time to take a step back and reset the scene. I would've signed up for a split in Houston in a heartbeat on Saturday morning, and the Yankees accomplished that. They outplayed the Astros thoroughly in Game 1, and, in the Game 2 loss, Houston needed 10 innings plus one batter to score a whopping three runs in their home ballpark. That's despite James Paxton bowing out in the third inning and Aaron Boone having to go deep into his second and third tier relievers. The Yankees won the necessary game in Houston and now they return home for three games in a sure-to-be electric Yankee Stadium. "It's a very, very hard place to play at any time of year, let alone October. It's a crazy atmosphere," George Springer said prior to the ALCS. Stealing that Game 2 win would've been great. The Yankees did at least get the split though, and at no point in Games 1-2 did the Astros look like the clearly superior team. Now they'll play three straight games in their home ballpark. "Those fans here bring everything to the game. It's not the same when you play at home, all those fans give you all the energy, make you go out there and compete and get a win," Luis Severino said yesterday.

2. Combating Cole. Against a pitcher as good as Gerrit Cole, it's easy to think the Yankees need to employ the old Pedro Martinez strategy and wait him out, then beat up on the bullpen. And that's true to some extent. That's what the Yankees nearly did against Justin Verlander in Game 2. Including the postseason Cole has exited the game with his team trailing only once in his last 24 starts. On two other occasions the game was tied. The Astros had the lead in the other 21 starts. This dude is nearly impossible to beat, so it's better to beat the bullpen. The old Pedro Martinez strategy means working the count and having long at-bats, which is easier said than done against a pitcher of this caliber. Don't be surprised if the Yankees come out aggressive early in the count tonight. The longer the at-bat, the more the pendulum swings his Cole's favor. His splits:

• 1st pitch: .356 AVG and .695 SLG
• 2nd pitch: .293 AVG and .545 SLG
• 3rd pitch: .194 AVG and .349 SLG
• 4th pitch: .144 AVG and .255 SLG
• 5th pitch and up: .128 AVG and .237 SLG

Cole struck out 326 batters this year, the most since Randy Johnson had 334 strikeouts in 2002. Also, his 39.9% strikeout rate was the highest ever for a pitcher with enough innings to qualify for the batting title. Long at-bats against Cole equal strikeouts. Working the count is important, for sure, but the goal is doing damage, and Cole is more susceptible early in the count because he throws more fastballs early in the count. His fastball isn't easy to hit -- Cole's four-seamer averaged 97.1 mph (96th percentile velocity) and 2,530 rpm (97th percentile spin rate) during the regular season -- but his two breaking balls (slider, curveball) and changeup are damn near unhittable. In a perfect world the Yankees would grind out at-bats tonight and chase Cole after five innings or so. Given his stuff and propensity to pitch deep into games even when he's not razor sharp, that seems unlikely, and jumping on hittable pitches early in the count may be the best plan of attack. He's not going to give the Yankees much to hit. Whenever Cole makes a mistake, they have to pounce, even if it means swinging first or second pitch consistently. "We expect to have success. We know it's going to be tough. Four o'clock game, the shadows will probably play an issue, as well, and make it difficult. But hopefully as a group we can have some success against him, whether that's wearing him down a little bit, whether that's taking advantage of a couple of mistakes that we do get," Aaron Boone said yesterday.

3. Game 4 rainout. Nothing has been officially announced yet, but all signs point to Game 4 being postponed due to rain tomorrow. The rain is supposed to start midday and continue into early Thursday morning. MLB tends to be conservative with weather situations in the postseason -- that has been the case ever since Game 5 of the 2008 World Series had to be suspended due to rain in the sixth inning -- so don't expect them to wait around a few hours to find a window. They'll call the game fairly early in the day. With that in mind, here is the updated schedule and possible post-rainout pitching matchups:

• Tuesday, Game 3: Luis Severino (extra rest) vs. Gerrit Cole (normal rest)
• Wednesday: rainout
• Thursday, Game 4: Masahiro Tanaka (normal rest) vs. Zack Greinke (normal rest)
• Friday, Game 5: James Paxton (normal rest) vs. Justin Verlander (normal rest)
• Saturday, Game 6: TBA vs. TBA
• Sunday, Game 7: Severino (normal rest) vs. Cole (normal rest)

At the workout yesterday Aaron Boone and A.J. Hinch both announced bullpen games for the regularly scheduled Game 4 on Wednesday without really elaborating. They know it will be rained out, but it's not official yet, so they're not going to say anything or reveal any plans for later in the series. Point is, once the game gets postponed, Friday's off-day disappears and Games 4-7 will be played four consecutive days. It allows both teams to push that bullpen game all the way back to Game 6. Is that even a good idea though? I don't think so. Three days into a four games in four days stretch doesn't seem like the best time to empty the bullpen, especially since it will be a potential clincher for one team and an elimination game for the other. I think it's best to get that bullpen game out of the way in Game 4, when you're coming off an off-day (everyone will be rested) and you know it won't be a possible clincher or elimination game. The Yankees could go bullpen-Tanaka-Paxton-Severino in Games 4-7, respectively, while the Astros go with bullpen-Verlander-Greinke-Cole. I dunno. Just kinda spitballin'. That rainout will create some headaches, especially for the Yankees given how much they use their bullpen, but it also creates some options for Games 4-6 that don't presently exist. 

4. Bullpen usage. Never once during the regular season did the Yankees use a reliever three consecutive days. I don't think the Yankees even warmed a pitcher up in three consecutive days. Here's what Zack Britton said two weeks ago about never pitching three straight days during the regular season: 

"I knew that the idea from Spring Training on was don't throw three days in a row type of thing. So that allows those recovery days throughout the season that maybe we normally wouldn't get. That was big. That was for the postseason where, ideally, they'd like to throw us every single game with the days off. So we're ready for it. Everyone feels, I think, really strong in our bullpen just based on the fact that we've had some designated days just to focus on recovering and kind of -- it's not sometimes the physical, like, recovery that you need, but just kind of taking a mental break through the course of a long season. We've had a lot of opportunity to do that." 

As noted earlier, Game 4 is likely to be rained out Wednesday, meaning Games 4-7 will be played on four consecutive days. The Yankees will almost certainly have to use a reliever(s) three straight days to win the ALCS in that case. Maybe they can close the series out in five games and avoid that, or win a few blowouts, but I'm not going to hold my breath. All those built-in rest days during the regular season were meant for October. To preserve these guys for the postseason so they can go three (or four?) straight days and not be completely out of gas the third day. Hopefully the Yankees get some distance from their starters the next few days (crazy idea, I know) and they don't have to run their bullpen into the ground. I wouldn't count on it. The toughest and most important games of the season are coming up this week, and that will require going outside the comfort zone and using guys on back-to-back-to-back days at some point. Hopefully all that rest during the regular season pays dividends.