Quick thoughts prior to Game 1 of the 2019 ALCS
Added 2019-10-12 17:59:26 +0000 UTCIt feels like the Yankees haven't played a game since September. Such is life when you sweep the ALDS. The Yankees are finally back in action tonight with ALCS Game 1 against the Astros, and I have some real quick thoughts to share. First, here is the ALCS roster:

Aaron Hicks (elbow) and CC Sabathia (shoulder) are back and replace Luke Voit and Tyler Wade on the roster. Also, David Hale was designated for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for Hicks, who was on the 60-day injured list. Now on to the thoughts.
1. 13 pitchers. Rather than drop fellow lefty Tyler Lyons for Sabathia, the Yankees dropped a position player, and I think that makes sense. The Astros have a wrecking ball offense with power (third most homers during the regular season), contact (lowest strikeout rate), and patience (highest walk rate), plus it's a long best-of-seven series, with Games 3-5 played on three consecutive days. This will be a taxing series for those guys on the mound. The Yankees are built around their bullpen and will lean heavily on their relievers in the ALCS. They're going to need to spread the workload around a bit and 13 pitchers will help them do that. Once upon a time, probably even as recently as two years ago, I would've said 13 pitchers is two too many in the postseason. Now 13 pitchers are a necessity given the way the Yankees operate.
2. Hicks and Maybin? Is Aaron Hicks going to start? Otherwise I don't get carrying two guys (Hicks and Cameron Maybin) to fill one fourth outfielder role. Giancarlo Stanton only needs one defensive caddy, you know? If the Yankees stick with their ALDS lineup -- I think that's a distinct possibility -- that leaves them three players on the bench: Hicks, Maybin, and Austin Romine. DJ LeMahieu is effectively the backup infielder, which means either giving up the designated hitter to put Edwin Encarnacion at first base, or playing Romine at first, where he did work out yesterday. Neither scenario is ideal. If Hicks starts, I assume it would mean Gio Urshela to the bench with LeMahieu at third, Encarnacion at first, and Stanton at DH. That's fine as long as Hicks can, you know, make an impact at the plate. It's been a while since he's seen live trying-to-get-you-out pitching. If Hicks is going to be on the bench, I would rather the Yankees have dropped Maybin rather than Tyler Wade. Two extra outfielders is overkill and Wade's the fastest guy on the team, plus he can help avoid any infield headaches should there be an injury or pinch-running scenario.
3. Whither Voit. Yeah, there's just no room for Luke Voit on the ALCS roster. The Astros are carrying 12 pitchers on their ALCS roster and they're all righties. Not one single left-hander to match up with Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius. Voit is not pinch-hitting for anyone -- the only scenario in which he would've pinch-hit in the ALCS would've been Tyler Wade coming to the plate after pinch-running earlier in the game -- and he has no versatility and no value on the bases or in the field. Once the Yankees chose to carry 13 pitchers, Voit was the easy man to drop. His value is very limited right now. Maybe things would be different if he'd hit well late in the season, but that isn't the case. He mostly struggled after returning from the sports hernia. Now Voit's a spectator for the ALCS. That has to be a bummer for him.
4. Two lefty relievers. Actually, the Yankees have four lefties in their ALCS bullpen, but Zack Britton is the eighth (and sometimes seventh) inning guy and Aroldis Chapman is the closer. They're not matchup guys. The Yankees are carrying two extra lefty relievers in Tyler Lyons and CC Sabathia. First of all, hooray for Sabathia being healthy. I hope the big guy gets a couple big strikeouts this series and we see that ferocious roar one last time. Secondly, it seems to me the Yankees are carrying two extra lefty relievers for one reason: Yordan Alvarez. The thing is, he had no platoon split during the regular season:
- vs. RHP: .317/.424/.658 (181 wRC+) and 26.9% strikeouts
- vs. LHP: .307/.389/.649 (171 wRC+) and 22.9% strikeouts
Alvarez only had 131 plate appearances against southpaws during the regular season, and I'd bet the farm on him not being a true talent 171 wRC+ hitter against lefties. If given the option, I'd rather have a lefty who can spin a breaking ball away face Alvarez than a righty who has to get him with a fastball or changeup. Michael Brantley has had a significant platoon split in recent years (135 wRC+ vs. 91 wRC+ since 2016) and he could see a lefty matchup guy in the late innings too. Mostly though, I think the Yankees want guys who can spin the ball away from Alvarez and maybe keep him in the ballpark. Sabathia can probably give the Yankees a full inning or two should they need it, but I think it's more likely we see him match up against Alvarez. Lyons too. With all due respect to Brantley, who is obviously a great hitter, Alvarez is the guy who can really hurt you when you make a mistake.
5. Tanaka in Game 1. This surprised me. Aaron Boone didn't really explain the decision to start Masahiro Tanaka in Game 1 when asked about it -- "I felt like it was a good decision. Tough one to be made but similar to the Division Series, where I was going back and forth a lot. Just felt like Masa here in Game 1 is the way I wanted to go in the end," he said -- and I really hope the Yankees didn't galaxy brain themselves into something like "our best chance to beat Justin Verlander in Game 2 is to have James Paxton on the mound." The next game is the most important game and you should have your best players on the field as much as possible. I love Tanaka, he's the man, but Paxton's the better pitcher and he gives the team the best chance to win. Game 1 is really important with Verlander and Gerrit Cole looming for Games 2 and 3! The Yankees have to win a game in Minute Maid Park at some point to win the ALCS. That's just the way the math works. Game 1 might be their best chance to do that with Zack Greinke rather than Verlander or Cole starting for the Astros. Rather than go with their best, the Yankees are going with someone else in Game 1. Do not like. Would rather it be Paxton than Tanaka tonight. Hopefully Tanaka continues his postseason dominance and this will all be moot in a few hours.
Comments
I wonder whether the unjuiced ball with the higher drag coefficient gave him his splitter back. If so, watch out.
lightSABR
2019-10-12 23:35:11 +0000 UTCHere's hoping that pitching Tanaka tonight doesn't mean Paxton has something nagging him and they want to give him an extra day. I do not understand carrying Maybin over Wade. But what do I know? Maybe they really believe in Maybin's bat for some reason, or maybe he can play 1B and we don't know about it. Or maybe, again, there's some injury concern we don't know about.
lightSABR
2019-10-12 23:33:40 +0000 UTCAll in on Postseason Tank!! Let's go!
KT
2019-10-12 23:25:46 +0000 UTCI’m buying in on playoff Tanaka, Paxton’s rhythm from August-September was upset somewhat his last two times out. That being said w the Houston offense one weakness seemingly being high velo, I could be horribly wrong. But I think the last guy I’d want to say “damn we lost the series without x pitching a second game” right now is Tanaka.
Nick G
2019-10-12 21:50:34 +0000 UTCI liked Tanaka for Game 3 in NY, with the ability to come back for Game 7 if necessary.
Brian H.
2019-10-12 19:59:05 +0000 UTCCart, horse, etc. etc.
Michael Axisa
2019-10-12 18:28:12 +0000 UTCI like the Tanaka start for game 1 because he gets game five at home. And sets up Paxton and Severino back in Houston
Michael Pape
2019-10-12 18:24:22 +0000 UTC