Thoughts prior to the Astros and Rays playing ALDS Game 5

Later tonight the Astros and Rays will play a decisive ALDS Game 5 to determine which team gets the privilege of losing to the Yankees in the ALCS. The ALCS will begin Saturday either way. If the Astros win, Game 1 is in Minute Maid Park. If the Rays win, Game 1 will be in Yankee Stadium. Here are some midweek thoughts.

1. Astros vs. Rays. My preference is facing the Rays in the ALCS. I think the Astros are the best and most dangerous team in baseball, and avoiding them would be swell. The Rays are no pushover -- "Be careful what you wish for," Aaron Boone said yesterday regarding the potential ALCS matchups -- but I'd rather take my chances with them over the Astros. That said, I've done this long enough to know hoping for a specific matchup in October is a fool's errand. Any team can beat any other team on any given night in this game, and weird things happen in short series. Examples: The first inning at SunTrust Park and the late innings at Dodger Stadium yesterday. More than anything, I'm rooting for a taxing Game 5 that goes deep into extra innings tonight. The Yankees have already come out ahead simply because there is a Game 5, and their eventual ALCS opponent has to burn their potential Game 1 starter tonight. I wrote something about this at CBS. Consider Houston's starting pitching options:

The Astros can't give any of their starters extra rest now, and Cole's second ALCS start is pushed all the way back to Game 7. It's entirely possible the Yankees could beat the Astros in the ALCS in five games and only have to face Verlander or Cole once each. That's the dream scenario. As for the Rays, Game 5 was their only way to advance after going down 0-2 in the ALDS, so they were always going to have to push their pitchers (not just the starters!) to advance. No matter the ALDS outcome, the Rays did the Yankees a great big favor by forcing a Game 5. The Yankees took care of business against the Twins and earned a whole bunch of off-days this week. The Astros and Rays did not, and the winner of Game 5 will go into the ALCS at least somewhat compromised because their pitchers won't get extra rest, and they won't have one of their horses ready for Game 1. I know it doesn't guarantee the Yankees a win or anything, but they will take any advantage they can get. The ALDS going to Game 5 is an obvious plus. "You know what, we'll enjoy watching the series unfold, and we'll get ready for whoever it is," Boone said about the potential ALCS opponents earlier this week.

2. The return of Hicks? Sounds like Aaron Hicks is an option for the ALCS roster. Can't say I expected that given the nature of his injury and setback. Earlier this week Hicks told Mark Didtler he is "definitely ready to go out there and play," which I took as an athlete saying he is ready to come back from an injury even though he may not truly be ready. You know how it is. Guys say they're ready even when they really aren't all the time. Then yesterday Aaron Boone confirmed Hicks is indeed a consideration for the ALCS roster. He joined the team in New York and worked out yesterday. "He’s good physically. Obviously hasn’t had the kind of reps or games that you’d like, but he has certainly put himself in the position to be considered (for the ALCS roster)," Boone said. Hicks said he has been facing live pitching in Tampa -- I assume he's been taking at-bats against the pitchers the Yankees have staying ready in case they're needed at some point this postseason (Cory Gearrin, David Hale, Ben Heller, Jordan Montgomery, Stephen Tarpley) -- and also throwing to the bases, which is a big deal. Hicks had a flexor strain and there was a chance he'd need Tommy John surgery. Making strong throws to the bases is a big rehab milestone. Hicks wants to play and be with his teammates -- "It’s the second time that they celebrated without me, so it’s one of those things that you just want to be part of it,” he told Didtler regarding the ALDS sweep -- and getting him on the ALCS roster is easy enough. Drop Tyler Wade and there you go. The question is, how much can Hicks help? He hasn't played in more than two months now (August 3rd was his last MLB game), and I can't see putting him in the starting lineup in that case. Not given the available personnel and no matter how many simulated games he's played in Tampa. It's a minor miracle Edwin Encarnacion came back hitting rockets like he has after three weeks on the shelf. Are the Yankees really going to ask Hicks to do the same after two months on the shelf? And play defense and do all that other stuff Encarnacion doesn't? Sounds like a big ask. If Hicks is truly healthy and able to play, great. Put him on the ALCS roster and use him as a bench guy and Giancarlo Stanton's defensive caddy. If he's not ready, that's okay too. Keep rehabbing him and prepare for the World Series. For me, these games are too important to sit Brett Gardner or Gio Urshela or whoever, and hope Hicks can make an immediate impact after missing two months. Put him on the bench next to Luke Voit and stick with the same starting position players. Overall though, this is great news. Hicks is a good player and the more quality options the Yankees have, the better. "I could see him anything from being in the lineup on a given game, I could see him being on our bench, I could also see us not ready to make that move yet because of not being fully worked back up. Those are things we'll try to evaluate as best we can the next couple of day. Try and make the best decision for us moving forward," Boone said.

3. The return of Sabathia. Similar to Aaron Hicks, CC Sabathia recently said he is confident he will be ready for the ALCS. Sabathia is down with a shoulder problem that required a cortisone shot early last week. He played catch Sunday and Monday, and threw a simulated game yesterday. "Frankly, looked really good. I was really excited about how he looked. He was sharp. He was able to really finish his pitches. I think he's feeling considerably better than he was this time last week certainly. I would say he is now an option for us, as well, and somebody that we're considering. We'll kind of talk it through. We'll see how he bounces back tomorrow from his session today," Aaron Boone said. I am certain Sabathia wants to be on the ALCS roster. I'm not sure bringing him back after one simulated game is the best idea though. If this were September and rosters were expanded and the Yankees were playing (relatively) meaningless games, sure, activate him and see what's what. We're talking about the ALCS though. It's been more than two weeks since Sabathia faced hitters in a meaningful game and, at best, he will have played catch twice and thrown one simulated game before the ALCS begins. (I can't see him throwing another simulated game today, or even tomorrow with ALCS Game 1 on Saturday.) This is a delicate situation because Sabathia is a legacy player and he wants to help the team, and he can help the team as a left-on-left matchup guy. Replacing Tyler Lyons with Sabathia is a very easy and straightforward move. After two days playing catch and one simulated game though? Eh, that might be pushing it. The Yankees have to be careful not to put Sabathia on the ALCS roster just because he is CC Sabathia and he says he's healthy. They should only put him on the ALCS roster if they are 100% convinced he is ready to help, and I'm not sure we will have enough information to know whether that is the case before the ALCS begins. "I think that's the biggest thing: How is he going to be able to recover? Do we think he can pitch in a game and legitimately bounce back and be an option the next day if he were to face a hitter or something like that? That's one of the things we're trying to get our arms around and evaluate the best we can in these next few days as we come to a decision," Boone said. 

4. Consistent lineup. Here's a fun fact: According to Sweeny Murti, ALDS Game 1 was the first time all year the Yankees had those nine players in the starting lineup. I don't mean those nine players in that exact 1-9 order or even at those exact positions. I mean those nine players in general. Not once during the regular season were these nine guys in the lineup together:

1. 1B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Brett Gardner
4. DH Edwin Encarnacion
5. LF Giancarlo Stanton
6. 2B Gleyber Torres
7. C Gary Sanchez
8. SS Didi Gregorius
9. 3B Gio Urshela 

How crazy is that? The Yankees used the same lineup (same order, same positions, etc.) in all three ALDS games. They used the same lineup in back-to-back games a handful of times during the regular season, but never once did they use the same lineup in three straight games. In the ALDS, they used the same lineup all three games, and the lineup consisted of nine guys who were never in the lineup together under Game 1 last Friday. Pretty crazy, isn't it? I get it, players get off-days to rest during the regular season and you put your best on the field each night in October, but still, it's pretty wild the lineup came together at the right time. And, honestly, I don't see a reason to make a change against right-handed pitchers. Like it or not, the Yankees are committed to having a lefty break up the righties in the middle of the order, and as good as Gregorius was in the ALDS, Gardner hit .263/.344/.536 (128 wRC+) against righties during the regular season. That was a top 20 slugging percentage against righties. If there must be a lefty in the middle of the righties, let it be Gardner. Against a left-handed starter -- the only lefty starters the Yankees could see in the ALCS are Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, and Wade Miley, and Yarbrough and Miley were so bad late in the regular season that they were demoted to the bullpen -- I'd hope the Yankees stack those big power righty bats. For now, that lineup has worked well, even if it is a little unconventional and relatively new given that those nine dudes were in the lineup together for the first time last week.

5. Britton & Chapman. Both Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman got hurt in ALDS Game 3 earlier this week. Britton jammed his ankle covering first base during the game and Chapman took a bottle to the pitching hand during the clubhouse celebration after the game. Fortunately, it sounds like both will be fine for the ALCS. Britton downplayed the injury and he will be on the ALCS roster, reports Jon Morosi. Granted, these are the 2019 Yankees, and we've seen "this guy will be fine" turn into "see you in a few weeks" more than once this year, so I don't think I'll feel better about Britton until I see him on the official ALCS roster when the Yankees announce it Saturday morning. As for Chapman, he told Marly Rivera he went through a full workout yesterday and doesn't have a bandage on his hand or anything, so that's good. You never quite know whether a guy is okay after a pitching hand injury until you see him back out on the mound (will he be able to grip the ball properly, etc?), but it sounds like Chapman will be fine. It was just a dumb fluky thing. And it sounds like Britton will be okay too. "Chapman is fine. Brit, he came in today to get some work done. He said he's good to go. If he had to pitch today, he would be good to go. Felt even better today. It doesn't seem like something he's overly concerned about. He'll throw tomorrow. Expect him to be a full go with no issues," Aaron Boone said yesterday. The Yankees lean heavily on their bullpen and losing any one of their Big Five would be bad, bad news. They showed us in the ALDS they are ready to use Britton and Chapman to cover the final nine outs, and having those guys at the end of the game frees up Boone to use Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, and Adam Ottavino earlier in the game. They can't afford to lose anyone from the bullpen and it sounds like they will indeed have Britton and Chapman for the ALCS. Good news all around.

6. Voit's role. I mentioned earlier that Tyler Wade is the obvious candidate to get dropped from the ALCS roster should Aaron Hicks return. What about Luke Voit though? Voit was glued to the bench during the ALDS and I'm not sure how the Yankees can use him at the moment. He's not coming in for defense, which means he's limited to pinch-hitting duties, and most of the lineup is right-handed anyway. Voit is there to pinch-hit for Brett Gardner or Didi Gregorius and that's about it, and are they getting lifted for a pinch-hitter, realistically? Nah, probably not. Wade won't pinch-hit for anyone, but he can run and play great defense on the infield, and man the outfield if necessary. Those skills may be more useful than a righty pinch-hitter. "I treat it like a National Leaguer. Coming up in the National League, you never know when you’re going to pinch-hit. The coaches have been doing a good job of communicating to let me know maybe I’d hit here or hit there. I’ve just got to stay ready," Voit told Randy Miller regarding his postseason role, referring back to his days with the Cardinals. Voit's spot on the ALCS roster could be determined by the opponent. Wade Miley is the only left-handed pitcher on the Astros ALDS roster and he stunk so bad in September that they no longer trust him. He's a mop-up guy. The only other lefties on their 40-man roster are Cionel Perez and Framber Valdez, and neither is likely to be added to the ALCS roster. There's no real reason to carry a righty pinch-hitter against Houston. As for the Rays, they have Blake Snell in the rotation with southpaws Brendan McKay, Colin Poche, and Ryan Yarbrough in the bullpen. It's also plausible they could add Jalen Beeks to their ALCS roster if they want another long man. Carrying that extra righty bench bat makes sense against Tampa given their pitching staff. Against the Astros though? Nah. There's no need to dedicate a roster spot to a guy who will only pinch-hit against the other team's mop-up man. If the Astros win tonight, dropping Voit for Hicks (or even CC Sabathia) would make sense, especially since the Yankees would still have Hicks and Cameron Maybin around to pinch-hit against lefties. If the Rays win tonight, then yeah, keeping Voit could be worthwhile given their pitching staff. "I’m going to be the biggest supporter possible. When my time is called, I’ll be ready to go whether that’s pinch-hit or I get a chance to play," Voit told Miller.