Thoughts following ALDS Game 3

(via @Yankees)

Remember when some idiot charged you $3/month to tell you the 2019 Twins are different and they're going to give the Yankees a hard time in the ALDS? That was more than just a sweep. That was one of the most fun postseason series I can ever remember. Gleyber Torres is having his megastar breakout, Didi Gregorius is cementing himself as Sir October, and the Yankees sent a 101-win team home for the winter with zero postseason wins. What a blast. Here are today's thoughts as the Yankees are now eight wins from glory.

1. Severino grinds. A year or two ago, that game last night gets away from Luis Severino. The Twins threatened in pretty much every inning, including loading the bases with no outs in the second. Severino was sitting more 94-96 mph rather than his usual 97-99 mph, which is understandable given the long layoff and his short-ish rehab, and he couldn't locate his fastball at all. Look at his fastball locations:

Rather than let things spiral out of control, Severino was able to keep it together and make pitches when the Twins had ducks on the pond. They went 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position against him and the one hit didn't score a run. They went 2-for-9 against him with men on base in general. When you think about an ace outing, you think 10 strikeouts in six or seven shutout innings. Something like that. You know what else an ace does? An ace finds a way to grind through a start on the days he doesn't have his best stuff and/or his best command. Severino got over the hump and figured it out in the regular season in 2017. Now he's starting to figure it out in the postseason. He tossed four scoreless innings in the AL Wild Card Game last year and had to work for every out. He did it again last night with a short fastball and crummy command. In a way, battling through a start against the highest scoring non-Yankees team in baseball is more impressive than having everything working and cruising through a game. This was a lost regular season for Severino due to his injuries. He still has a chance to make an impact to October though, and we're seeing him mature on the mound. He's finding ways to get outs and put zeroes on the board when he's at less than 100%. I have no idea what'll happen in the ALCS, but I find that exciting. "He made so many big pitches. It wasn't perfect there, and he obviously got into some big trouble there in the second inning, but just so proud of how he navigated. Bases loaded, no outs, and he just locked it in and made pitches," Aaron Boone said following the game.

2. Gleyber day. My goodness, what a player Gleyber Torres is becoming. A homer and two doubles last night, and all three hits were important. The homer opened the scoring in the second inning. The first double led to an insurance run in the seventh. The second double led to another insurance run in the ninth. At 22 years and 298 days, Gleyber is the youngest Yankee ever with three extra-base hits in a postseason game -- the previous youngest was 28-year-old Robinson Cano in the 2011 ALDS -- and the second youngest player in MLB history with three-extra base hits in a postseason game. (Carlos Correa was 21 years and 20 days old when he had a double and two homers in Game 4 of the 2014 ALDS.) Torres had the big go-ahead two-run double in Game 1 and he drove in a run in Game 2 as well. Then he had three extra-base hits and contributed to three runs in Game 3. On top of that, he also made a tremendous defensive play on Eddie Rosario's hard-hit ground ball into the shift to end the fifth inning. (Shoutout to DJ LeMahieu for the scoop at first base.) Statcast says batted balls like Rosario's go for a hit 53% of the time. The Yankees were up 2-0 at the time and the Twins had runners on first and second with two outs. If that ball gets by Torres, it's a double to right field and at least one scores (I'm not sure Nelson Cruz scores from first base on that, even with two outs), and the Twins have runners on second and third. Instead, Gleyber (and LeMahieu) turned it into an inning-ending out. Given the situation, that might have been the biggest play in the game. Torres went 5-for-12 (.417) in the ALDS and had a big hit(s) in all three games, plus he made an impact in the field. He's 22 years old and he's doing stuff like this in October. How awesome. "Personally, I'm happy. It doesn't matter if I hit a home run or a double, that is an opportunity to help my team. I just put the ball in play. I know guys behind me do a really good job. So I'm just happy to get an opportunity to be on base and try to score a run to help my team," Torres said after Game 3. (Here's the compilation video of Gleyber's game.)

3. Strong defense. Wow did the Yankees play some great defense last night. The Gleyber Torres (and DJ LeMahieu) play to end the fifth inning stands out most, but Aaron Judge also went back and used all 6-foot-7 of his frame to take extra bases away from Miguel Sano in the seventh inning. Didi Gregorius made that ridiculous diving catch for the second out in the ninth inning. Those were all hits turned into outs. Saved hits, saved runs, saved pitches for the pitchers. The Twins put nine balls in play at 100 mph or better in Game 3. Look at the exit velocities and expected batting averages, and outcomes:

• Miguel Sano: 107.9 mph and .700 xBA (line out -- Judge's catch in seventh)
• Jorge Polanco: 106.1 mph and unknown xBA (line out -- Didi's catch in ninth)
• Nelson Cruz: 105.3 mph and .310 xBA (double play)
• Jake Cave: 105.0 mph and .810 xBA (single)
• Eddie Rosario: 104.2 mph and .910 xBA (homer)
• Luis Arraez: 101.4 mph and .470 xBA (line out)
• Marwin Gonzalez: 100.6 mph and .740 xBA (line out)
• Marwin Gonzalez: 100.2 mph and .210 xBA (fly out)
• Marwin Gonzalez: 100.2 mph .610 xBA (single)

That's a lotta well-struck balls going for outs. Luck? Sure, there's always some element of luck involved in every defensive play, but the Yankees always seem to be well-positioned, and their defenders made some big time plays. The Torres/LeMahieu play was great, the Judge play was tremendous, and that Gregorius play was the difference between two on and two outs and Cruz coming to the plate as the tying run with one out. The Yankees are not known for their defense -- they ranked middle of the pack with a .704 Defensive Efficiency in the regular season, meaning they turned 70.4 percent of balls in play into outs -- but, in their biggest game of the season (to date!), they turned in some very nifty plays. Great, great game defensively for the Yankees last night. It shouldn't go overlooked. "I think that really kind of embodied the whole night as far as how our guys played. I thought they played such a clean game. They made so many big plays in big spots because I really thought the Twins brought it tonight. They made it difficult. They had traffic, it seemed like all night. Our guys just kept making big pitches when they needed to and big defensive plays," Aaron Boone said.

4. Bullpen machinations. Through three games I am comfortable saying Aaron Boone's bullpen management has improved tremendously since last postseason. At the same time, I don't think burning Tommy Kahnle and Adam Ottavino and Chad Green in the fifth inning is a winning strategy going forward. Ottavino needs to be more than a one-batter right-on-right matchup guy and I hope that will be the case in the ALCS. The Astros, should they advance, have a lineup that will more easily allow Boone to run Ottavino out there for multiple batters. Overall though, I like that Boone went to the bullpen fairly quickly in all three ALDS games and had who I considered the "right" guy on the mound in the later innings, if that makes sense. Kahnle faced the hitters he should've faced, Ottavino faced the hitters (well, hitter, singular) he should've faced, and both Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman were ready to get 4-5 outs apiece in the late innings, if necessary. It was textbook modern bullpen usage. It's a bummer Dellin Betances is injured, because having another high-strikeout arm available for high-leverage work sure would be swell. The Yankees are rolling five deep in the bullpen right now though, and that's pretty great. Boone may have to be a tad more conservative with his bullpen in the ALCS because Games 3-5 will be played on three consecutive days, and they haven't used a reliever three straight days all year, but we can worry about that when the ALCS rolls around. For now, Boone had a very good series overall, I thought. Much, much better than last year, and he followed through on the organization's stated intent to be aggressive with their relief crew. "They’ve been doing it all year. We’re good as a group, so that’s the key," Ottavino told Greg Joyce after the game.

5. Run prevention success. The Yankees led baseball in runs scored (943) and were second in home runs (306) during the regular season. The Twins were second in runs scored (939) and first in homers (307). Minnesota has a great offense, and the Yankees just held them to seven runs in three games, with four of the seven coming on solo homers. Two of the other three were garbage time runs against Jonathan Loaisiga in Game 2. Seven runs in three games. According to Nate Rowan, only three times during the regular season were the Twins held to seven runs in a three-game span, and two of the three overlapped (April 28-30, April 29 to May 1, Sept. 4-6). The Twins never scored more than one run in an inning in the series and they went 3-for-28 (.107) with runners in scoring position in the three games*. Imagine if the Yankees had a postseason series like that offensively? Oy vey. For all the questions about the rotation coming into October -- questions that were 100% legitimate -- the pitching staff collectively shut the highest scoring non-Yankees team in baseball right down in the ALDS. They executed at a high level and limited damage throughout. Also, closing out this series in three games was clutch as hell, because I don't know what the Yankees would've done in Game 4. I guess the Yankees would've started J.A. Happ in Game 4, but he's a fastball pitcher (the Twins crush fastballs) who is prone to the long ball (the Twins hit a lot of homers) and is left-handed (the Twins hammer lefties), so I'm not sure that would've gone too well. Chad Green as an opener with Luis Cessa doing some bulk work? Eh. Aaron Boone indicated James Paxton may have been available on short rest in Game 4 -- that would have lined up Masahiro Tanaka for a potential Game 5 start on normal rest -- maybe for only an inning or two in relief. Whatever. We don't have to worry about it now. Glad the Yankees avoided a fourth starter this series -- they won't get off that easy in the ALCS, unfortunately -- and I'm glad the pitching staff everyone loves to hate shut down a great offensive team. Heck of a job by those guys.

* The Yankees had the fifth lowest AVG (.247) and fourth lowest OBP (.323) allowed with runners in scoring position during the regular season, so they've held opponents down in those situations all year. Probably should've mentioned that at some point, huh?

6. Injury updates: Because these are the 2019 Yankees, they could not get through Game 3 last night without an injury scare. Zack Britton jammed his ankle covering first base in the seventh inning and left with the trainer in the eighth, but apparently it's nothing. "No, we're not going to do any tests. I think a lot of it is being cautious about what I was coming off last year with the Achilles surgery. In that situation, the game was too important to be out there thinking about something other than pitching," he told Bryan Hoch. Brian Cashman told Brendan Kuty that "Zack gave me not even a yellow flag but more of a green light," when asked about the injury, which is a collection of words I'm not quite sure I understand, but it sounds like good news, so I'll take it. Losing Britton would be a major blow to the bullpen. Also, Aroldis Chapman had his left hand wrapped following the game (photo), and no one seemed to know what that was about. Not even Cashman. Eventually Chapman told Dan Martin was hit with a bottle during the postgame celebration. "I was just celebrating and everyone was jumping around. I got hit with a bottle, but it’s fine," he said. Geez. It would be funny if I weren't so scarred from all the injuries this season. It sounds like Chapman will be fine -- "He had a huge smile on his face, so I think that was a good sign," Cashman told Martin -- and thank goodness for that. As well as the pitching staff performed in the series overall, the Yankees are going to continue to lean heavily on their relievers going forward, and that means Britton and Chapman slamming the door in the (seventh and) eighth and ninth inning. Losing either one for even a game or two could be potentially devastating. Sounds like Britton is okay. Hopefully Chapman is too. "He was just a little tender, a little kind of gingerly in really finishing his pitches. We just felt like we needed to get him out of there. Chappie was up and ready to go. It was probably a bit earlier than we wanted, but obviously, Chappie was able to finish it off," Aaron Boone said regarding the decision to remove Britton.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. You know who had a low-key monster Game 3? Gary Sanchez. He went 1-for-3 with a walk and saw 28 pitches in his four plate appearances, or seven per. Gary also blocked the hell out of the ball behind the plate. He very quietly had an impact last night ... Brett Gardner's single to make it 2-0 felt like the death blow. The Twins blew that bases loaded, no outs situation in the bottom of the second inning, then Gardner punched a little ground ball juuust beyond Miguel Sano's dive at third base in the top of the third. The Target Field crowd was defeated and mostly silent after that. The Twins looked defeated too ... here are a few stat nuggets:

• The Yankees are the third 100-win team to sweep another 100-win team in the postseason, joining the 1971 Orioles (over Athletics), and the 1976 Reds (over Phillies).
• The Yankees outscored the Twins 23-7 in the three games. The +16 run differential is tied for the highest ever in an LDS. (The Cardinals were +16 over the Nationals in the 2012 ALDS, which went the full five games.)
• The Twins are the first 100-win team to be swept in a postseason series since the 105-win Cardinals in the 2004 World Series, and the first 100-win team to be swept in an LDS period. 
• The Twins have lost 16 straight postseason games, including 13 straight against the Yankees. It's the longest streak in MLB history and tied for the longest streak in the four major North American sports (the NHL's Blackhawks had a 16-gamer from 1975-79).
• Between Games 1-2 of the 2010 ALDS and Game 3 of the 2019 ALDS, the Yankees have won every single postseason game ever played at Target Field. 

I mentioned last week the Twins have a sneaky good bullpen. They don't have the big names like the Yankees, but their bullpen was very good overall this season (same WAR as the Yankees in 91 fewer innings), and especially so after the All-Star break. The Yankees scored 14 runs in 12 innings against that bullpen in the ALDS ... according to championship probability added (win probability, but for the World Series), the biggest hit of the ALDS (and the Yankees season to date) was the Gleyber Torres go-ahead two-run double off Miguel Sano's glove in Game 1 ... no matter whether you think the Yankees match up better against the Astros or Rays, we should all be rooting for that series to go as long as possible. Houston is starting Justin Verlander on short rest in Game 4 tonight and that means Gerrit Cole would get the ball on normal rest in Game 5 on Thursday, if necessary. The Rays will have a bullpen game today and may piggyback Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell in a potential Game 5. Root like hell for that series to go long and for each team to wear out their pitchers. Give me a Rays win today and about 37 innings in Game 5.