Thoughts following ALDS Game 2

So much for that "these Twins are different!" narrative I was preaching, huh? Two games into the ALDS, the Yankees have a convincing 2-0 lead, and they look like the superior team in every way possible. The series isn't over yet -- the Yankees showed us two years ago an 0-2 deficit is not insurmountable -- but the Yankees are sitting pretty right now. Anyway, here are some thoughts on Game 2 and beyond.

1. Offensive comparison. The Yankees are getting offensive contributions up and down the lineup, one through nine. Even the slumping Gary Sanchez has been on base three times in the two games (two walks and a hit-by-pitch). The offensive comparison is stark:

• Twins: .197/.284/.394 with 7 BB and 27 K
• Yankees: .297/.446/.516 with 16 BB and 18 K

That seven-run third inning yesterday was so impressive. It all happened with two strikes! The Yankees loaded the bases with no outs, then Giancarlo Stanton lifted a long sacrifice fly to center field in a 2-2 count, Gleyber Torres singled home a run in an 0-2 count, Sanchez was hit by a pitch in an 0-2 count, and Didi Gregorius hit the grand slam in a 1-2 count. That all happened against Tyler Duffey, who held opponents to a .120/.186/.203 (46 OPS+) batting line with a 56.6% strikeout rate in two-strike counts during the regular season. He's one of the better setup relievers in baseball and the Yankees have tagged him for four runs plus five inherited runs in 1.2 innings in the two games. Want to see a fun graph? Here is regular season batting average and strikeout rate with the bases loaded (via Jason Collette):

The Yankees hit .361/.390/.609 (154 OPS+) with a 12.6% strikeout rate as a team with the bases loaded this season. They're out on their own little island in the graph. Savages, indeed. I get that the Yankees haven't faced Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole the last two days -- it is insane Verlander has only the second best stuff in his own rotation -- but you can only face who's on the schedule, and the Yankees have punished an underwhelming Twins pitching staff. Randy Dobnak? That guy has no place on a serious contender's postseason roster. Nice story and all, but as someone told me prior to Game 2 yesterday: "One team is starting Randy Dobnak on purpose and the other is going to the ALCS."

2. The Dawning of the Age of Gregorius. I still don't understand John Sterling's home run call for Didi Gregorius -- I assume there's a reference I'm missing -- but I don't care, I love it. Gregorius finished the season in a 14-for-85 (.165) slump and at no point this summer did he look like himself following Tommy John surgery. I've had people yelling at me on social media saying he shouldn't be in the postseason lineup, which is crazy talk. Gregorius can still impact a game defensively -- the alternative is weakening the defense by putting Gleyber Torres at short, DJ LeMahieu at second, and Luke Voit at first, and Voit slumped just as hard as Sir Didi down the stretch -- and he is always capable of doing what he did yesterday. Aaron Boone said it perfectly prior to Game 2: "Sometimes it just takes one at-bat -- one swing -- to kind of turn it, and I believe that's what's in there for Didi still." That one swing came in the third inning. If we were to rank the most important Yankees postseason home runs from 2017-19, it would go something like this:

1. 2017 Wild Card Game: Didi Gregorius vs. Ervin Santana
2. 2017 ALDS Game 3: Greg Bird vs. Andrew Miller
3. 2017 ALDS Game 5: Didi Gregorius vs. Corey Kluber (first homer)
4. 2017 ALDS Game 5: Didi Gregorius vs. Corey Kluber (second homer)
5. 2019 ALDS Game 2: Didi Gregorius vs. Tyler Duffey

That's a pretty good postseason resume for Sir Didi. The Yankees were never going to take Gregorius out of their lineup no matter how much slumped, for three reasons. One, he can still impact a game defensively. Two, they believe he is a heck of a lot better than what he's shown following elbow reconstruction. And three, Gregorius has a flare for the dramatic. He's not afraid of the spotlight and he has a history of coming through in big moments. I have no idea what will happen with his free agency after the season. Whatever happens, Sir Didi has been a great Yankee, and I'm glad he's already making his mark on this postseason. "He's one of the leaders of this team. No matter what the stats say, he's always going to be a leader, he's always going to come through in big situations when you need him. That's why he's in this lineup. That's why he's in the postseason. He's a killer. He's showing it right now," Aaron Judge said following Game 2. (Judge, Boone, a few others confirmed Dellin Betances called Didi's grand slam in the dugout, if you care about such things.)

3. Judge's impact. Speaking of Aaron Judge, he is 3-for-6 with four walks and zero strikeouts through two ALDS Games. He's reached base safely seven times in 10 plate appearances. Oh, and he's played great defense too. Remember when he went 1-for-20 with 16 strikeouts in the 2017 ALDS? Feels like a lifetime ago. Check out where Judge hit his outs in these two games:

Two long fly balls to the warming track and one more routine 95.5 mph fly ball to center. I think Judge is seeing the ball well at the moment. Shouldn't be a surprise though. He's been locked in at the plate for weeks now. Remember that ugly midseason slump and all that talk that he wouldn't get over the oblique strain until the winter? Judge hit .301/.380/.714 (180 wRC+) with 15 homers in his final 35 regular season games. He's looked as good as he's looked at any point as a big leaguer these last two months or so. His monster ALDS is kinda sorta flying under the radar given everything else that is going on, but make no mistake, this guy is a superstar of the first order and he is leading the Yankees this October. “(In 2017), I could sit up here and say I wasn’t nervous, but I was nervous. Excited. I think after you get a couple games in, get that feeling of what postseason is about, you settle down a little bit," Judge said yesterday.

4. Masahiro my hero. Ho hum, another strong postseason performance from Masahiro Tanaka. One run in five innings, and the run scored on a walk and two singles, the second a weak little grounder against the shift. That happened in the top of the fourth, after Tanaka sat a while as the Yankees put seven runs on the board in the bottom of the third. He missed his spots a bit that half-inning. On paper, the Twins were a great matchup for Tanaka. He is the master at getting chases out of the zone -- his 40.2% chase rate since 2017 is the highest in baseball by more than three full percentage points -- and the Twins had one of the highest chase rates in baseball during the regular season (31.4%). Tanaka used his slider and new grip splitter (and one elevated heater) to get a whole bunch of swings and misses out of the strike zone:

Tanaka struck out seven Twins yesterday after striking out seven batters once in his final 16 regular season starts. Also, his 16 swings and misses yesterday were his most since June 17th, the complete game shutout against the Rays, and a total he reached only twice in 31 regular season starts. Aaron Boone pulled Tanaka after five innings and 83 pitches with an 8-1 lead and I am totally cool with that. Tanaka's splits the third time through the order are extreme ...

• First time: .245/.281/.356 (.272 wOBA and 2.98 FIP)
• Second time: .236/.281/.449 (.305 wOBA and 4.77 FIP)
• Third time: .309/.347/.596 (.387 wOBA and 5.69 FIP)

... and the middle of the order was due up the third time in the sixth inning. Boone could've sent Tanaka back out for the sixth to try to steal some outs, or go straight to the bullpen to snuff out a potential rally before it even starts. If the Twins were going to get back into the Game 2, the middle of the lineup facing Tanaka a third time is probably when it would've happened. The bullpen is rested and there's no reason to tempt fate. In the regular season? Sure, try to squeeze another inning from Tanaka. In October, with a chance to take a 2-0 series lead and an off-day coming today? Nah. In the end, it was another strong postseason start from Tanaka, who became only the second pitcher in history to allow no more than two runs in his first six postseason starts (Sandy Koufax). "I actually don't get too caught up on being good in the postseason and all that. Come to think about it, I think it's still a small sample. My thing is just go out there and be the best that you can be, compete, and, yeah, just be the best that you can be," Tanaka said following Game 2.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Through 10 total games, Gleyber Torres is the breakout star of the postseason. He's taking at-bats like a veteran and has come up with numerous big hits (in two-strike counts!) already. Gleyber's a star. He's not going to be a star, he already is one. "He's smart and he's confident, and that's a really good combination when you're talented ... He's shown an ability to make adjustments, to understand what teams and pitchers are doing to him, and he has a lot of confidence in his ability," Aaron Boone said following Game 1 ...  Very quietly, Gio Urshela had two hits in Game 2, and they were the first signs of life he's shown in a while (he finished the regular season in a 2-for-22 skid). I wasn't worried or anything. Slumps happen. You just hope they don't come at the wrong time. Hopefully yesterday was an indication Urshela is turning it around at the plate (he's still a stud in the field) ... nice inning for Graeme Lloyd I mean Tyler Lyons yesterday. Three up, three down, two strikeouts (one righty, one lefty). It was a low-leverage spot in a blowout win, sure, but every little bit helps. I'm telling you, Lyons is going to get a huge strikeout against a lefty at some point this October. I feel it in my bones ... so much for all my hand-wringing over Masahiro Tanaka in Game 2 and Luis Severino in Game 3, huh? I figured it wouldn't make much of a difference -- I trust Tanaka implicitly at this point -- and it all worked out. The Yankees are going on the road with a 2-0 series lead and will have their young flame-throwing ace on the mound in Game 3 . Pretty, pretty cool ... in case you're wondering, CC Sabathia, Dellin Betances, and Kyle Higashioka are traveling with the Yankees and will be in the dugout as non-roster players in Minnesota. The Yankees always keep a third catcher close in the postseason (it was Higashioka last year and Erik Kratz in 2017), I assume so they can make a quick and easy roster substitution in case there's an injury. No worrying about a flight from Tampa getting delayed by rain or something. Also, Thairo Estrada, Mike Ford, Clint Frazier, Cory Gearrin, David Hale, Ben Heller, Jordan Montgomery, and Stephen Tarpley are all in Tampa working out and "staying hot" in case they're needed at some point this postseason. Estrada, Frazier, Hale, and Heller have been in Tampa since the regular season ended. Ford, Gearrin, Montgomery, and Tarpley were with the Yankees during Games 1-2 and flew to Tampa last night ... since the LDS adopted the 2-2-1 format in 1998, 30 teams have taken a 2-0 series lead at home and 27 went on to win the series. The three comebacks: 1999 Red Sox over Indians, 2003 Red Sox over Athletics, and 2017 Yankees over Indians. (The 2012 Giants over Reds comeback was with the 2-3 format in the first year of the two Wild Card system.) History is on New York's side, but I don't care what history says. Go to Minnesota and end the series in Game 3. No messing around. Treat Game 3 like Game 7 and put it to bed.