September 27th, 2019: Postseason Roster, Gregorius, Postseason Lineup, LeMahieu, Stroman, Mailbag

There are three days remaining in the regular season and we still don't know which team the Yankees will play in the ALDS. Chances are it'll be the Twins, but that's not official yet. One more Astros win or one more Yankees loss gives Houston the best record in the American League. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as the Red Sox fill up their diaper over a dropped pop-up.

1. Postseason roster. The Yankees made it through the week without an injury! Hooray for that. We were given a pretty good scare when Gio Urshela took that pitch to the hand the other night, but fortunately it looks like he'll be fine. Phew. Edwin Encarnacion and Gary Sanchez are expected back this weekend as well, so the cavalry is coming. With that in mind, here is my latest ALDS roster projection:

Stanton had a rough game Wednesday (every Yankee had a rough game Wednesday) but is moving around well and is generally having good at-bats. I'm encouraged. For a guy that played only his 14th game of the season -- and first road game! -- on Tuesday, I'm pretty encouraged. Sure looks like he's ready to be the everyday left fielder in October. I have Encarnacion on the bench at the moment but don't read too much into that. This is more about who will be on the roster than who will be in the lineup. I have to think Encarnacion will be in the postseason lineup one way or the other. The only change from last week is Loaisiga replacing Cory Gearrin in the bullpen. I made my case for Loaisiga the other day. He can do anything Gearrin can do -- Gearrin is only useful as a right-on-right matchup specialist anyway -- and he can throw multiple innings as well. Loaisiga has thrown the ball very well this month, and the more hard-throwing high-strikeout guys on the postseason roster, the better. Besides, the last guy in the bullpen won't pitch much in October anyway. I've wasted too many words on a guy who might not even appear in a postseason game. (Fun fact: Jordan Montgomery was on the ALDS and ALCS rosters in 2017, but never appeared in a game. I do remember him warming up in the 13th inning of ALDS Game 2 though.) The Mike Tauchman and Dellin Betances injuries, as well as Domingo German's suspension, have taken the mystery out of the postseason roster. Now it almost feels like the Yankees have too few players for too many spots, especially in the bullpen. The ALDS roster will be announced sometime next Friday morning -- rosters are always announced the morning of Game 1 -- and unless the Yankees suffer another injury (or injuries) this weekend, this will be my final ALDS roster projection. Let's do this again for the ALCS, shall we?

2. Sir Didi's struggles. The return from Tommy John surgery has not gone smoothly for Didi Gregorius. He's been fine defensively. More than fine, really. There was some rust when he first returned, otherwise he's been fine in the field. At the plate though, Gregorius is hitting .240/.279/.445 (85 wRC+) in 337 plate appearances, and that ain't good. The power is there (16 homers) and he's not striking out excessively (15.4%), but that AVG and OBP, woof. "I’ve sucked, if you want the honest truth. I’m not where I want to be," he told Randy Miller over the weekend. The thing is, the underlying numbers are actually pretty good, at least relative to his last few years. Gregorius currently has the highest exit velocity (88.3 mph), hard-hit rate (35.2%), and barrel rate (6.0%) of his career. The contact quality is there but the hits aren't.

Perhaps bad luck has played a part in Sir Didi's struggles, but he is definitely chasing out of the zone too much (40.2% chase rate), and the batted ball data says some line drives have turned into pop-ups or regular old fly balls. Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager returned from Tommy John surgery earlier this year and he is just now getting back to normal -- he came into September with a good but un-Seager-like .268/.337/.454 (108 wRC+) batting line -- and he recently spoke to Andy McCullough (subs. req'd) about how long it's taken him to feel like himself at the plate after having elbow reconstruction. "(It's) like, come on dude, I feel like I hit four balls as hard as I can, and they didn’t make it to the outfielders. Juiced my ass," he joked. Gregorius and Seager are two different players, but they are in a similar situations, and it's taken both quite some time to get back to normal at the plate. Seager is just starting to do it now after more than 450 plate appearances, and there's no guarantee things will click for Gregorius before the end of the season. I mean, the end of the season is here, so I should probably say there's no guarantee things will click for Gregorius before the end of the postseason. Given the infield situation, sitting Didi in the postseason is a distinct possibility, especially against lefties. I'm loathe to do that against righties though, because he can still have an impact in the field, and because Gregorius does seem to have a knack for insanely clutch hits. It's not like Gio Urshela and Luke Voit have been crushing the ball the last week or so, you know? I'd sit one of those two before Gregorius in the postseason, especially against righties. This has not been an easy season for Didi though. He had a major surgery and had to grind through a long rehab, and he's been playing catch-up pretty much all year. "I feel like his best run is still out there. Obviously coming back in a timely manner from the Tommy John surgery and I think he had some bumps along the way  physically -- with his shoulder, with his finger that he was dealing with -- that hasn’t allowed him to get in that really good in-season rhythm to where he goes on one of those runs. But I feel like that’s certainly in there," Aaron Boone told Miller.

3. Postseason lineup. The Yankees very clearly want to sandwich a lefty bat between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. We've known that since last year. Didi Gregorius has batted third most of the last few weeks and Brett Gardner was in the third spot Wednesday. Tyler Wade and Mike Ford are the only other left-handed hitters on the active roster and Wade's not going to bat third and Ford (probably) won't be on the postseason roster. It's too bad Aaron Hicks is hurt. He would've been a good option to hit between Judge and Stanton. I totally understand wanting to split up the strikeout prone righties, but geez, when your best options are Gregorius and Gardner, maybe don't worry about it? Judge and Stanton (and Edwin Encarnacion and Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres) hit righties very well. Going into last night's games, 173 right-handed batters had at least 500 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since 2017. Some Yankees ranks:

2. Aaron Judge: 153 wRC+ (behind Mike Trout and his 192 wRC+ ... lol)
14. Giancarlo Stanton: 130 wRC+
25. Edwin Encarnacion: 124 wRC+
33. Gleyber Torres: 119 wRC+
43. Gary Sanchez: 114 wRC+

When you have five of the top 40-ish right-on-right hitters in baseball on your roster, maybe don't worry too much about squeezing a lefty into the middle of the lineup somewhere? It's one thing if you have a great lefty bat like Bryce Harper or Christian Yelich on your roster. It's another when your best lefties are Gardner -- I love Brett and it's awesome he's socking so many dingers, but he shouldn't hit third for a contending team -- and a slumping Gregorius. It's not worth the hassle in the Yankees' case. You can sort the potential postseason batting order into three tiers, I believe:

Top Tier (in this exact order)
1. 1B/3B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Giancarlo Stanton

Second Tier (in any order)
4. DH Edwin Encarnacion
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. 2B Gleyber Torres

Third Tier (lefties in either order, but keep the righty between them)
7. SS Didi Gregorius
8. 1B Luke Voit or 3B Gio Urshela
9. CF Brett Gardner

That's my postseason lineup template. Do that and things will be okay. I know batting six righties consecutively atop the lineup is more dangerous than crossing the streams, but I'm willing to take that risk. The Yankees just don't have the personnel to squeeze a left-handed bat between Judge and Stanton, or Stanton and Encarnacion, or Sanchez or Torres. If I'm an opposing pitcher and I see Gregorius or Gardner hitting between Judge and Stanton, I'd feel like the Yankees were doing me a favor. Clearly though, the Yankees believe it's important to break up to righties, so don't be surprised if Gardner's batting third come the postseason. Gregorius got a long look in that spot and mostly flopped. If it must be done, Gardner's power numbers make him the best man for the job.

4. Didi's and LeMahieu's contracts. The more I think about Didi Gregorius' impending free agency, the more I believe the most likely outcome is he accepts the qualifying offer. The Tommy John surgery threw a big ol' wrench into his contract year, and he hasn't hit all that well, so his free agent stock is down. The qualifying offer will be in the $19M range and hey, if you're the Yankees, there are worse things in the world than retaining Gregorius on a one-year contract, even a high-priced one. "I love it here, but it’s up to them to decide what they want to do. If they want me here, I’ll be here. If not, there’s nothing I can do," Didi told Randy Miller recently. Sir Didi could return to a team and an organization he knows next year and try to rebuild value following a normal non-Tommy John surgery offseason in a home ballpark tailor-made for his offensive game. Seems smart, no? As for DJ LeMahieu, he recently told Randy Miller he's open to discussing an extension with the Yankees. I mean, duh. Of course he's willing to take more of the team's money. Here's what he said:

“It’s been fun,” LeMahieu said. “It’s worked out very well.”

It’s been so much fun for LeMahieu that he already knows that he wants to stay with the Yankees beyond the length of his contract. In fact, if general manager Brian Cashman calls this month, next month or in the offseason to initiate contract extension talks, LeMahieu will be eager to get something done.

“Absolutely,” LeMahieu said. “I love it here."

Two things about this. One, LeMahieu has all the leverage right now given his performance this year, and that's not a great negotiating position for the Yankees. I think extending him this winter is much more likely to result in a bad contract than letting him play out next year and talking contract then. And two, the Yankees can not lose Gregorius and LeMahieu in back-to-back offseasons. They have to get one of these dudes signed long-term at some point soon because there is not another Gleyber Torres in the farm system. No one is coming up to grab a middle infield spot in a year or two. Whether they re-sign Gregorius long-term or extend LeMahieu, I don't know, but I feel like one of the two things has to happen this offseason. The Yankees have to lock in their middle infield situation soon. In my opinion, the best 2020 Yankees team includes both Gregorius and LeMahieu. The best 2021 team though? I'm not sure. Gregorius will play the entire 2021 season at age 31 and his days at short could be numbered. LeMahieu will turn 33 in July 2021 and that's when age-related decline starts to become a serious concern. There's a case to made for keeping Didi and letting LeMahieu walk, and vice versa. From the team's perspective, I think the best possible outcome would be Gregorius accepting the qualifying offer. Both guys would be on the roster next year, so the Yankees would get to enjoy their production and evaluate them further (that applies mostly to Gregorius as he gets further away from elbow surgery), and then they could decide which one to re-sign after the season. Maybe it's Didi, maybe it's LeMahieu. Who knows how we'll feel in 12 months? I'm certain no one thought we'd be talking about giving LeMahieu an extension six months ago.

5. Cashman on Stroman. In case you missed it earlier this week, Brian Cashman started a little mini-controversy involving Marcus Stroman. Here's what Cashman told Wally Matthews about the Yankees trade deadline activity:

And this year, when the Blue Jays were demanding (Clint) Frazier be included in a deadline deal for Marcus Stroman, Cashman refused to let the promising but erratic young outfielder go.

“We were interested in Stroman but we didn’t think he would be a difference-maker,” he said. “We felt he would be in our bullpen in the postseason.”

Two quick (but notable) paragraphs buried in a Cashman profile. Stroman melted down on Twitter after that. He spent his afternoon tweeting and retweeting posts comparing his numbers to various Yankees starters. (Funny enough, on the day the Cashman profile was released, Stroman and Yankees starters had identical 3.86 ERAs since the trade deadline.) A few things about this. One, Cashman has been very candid the last few years and he can say whatever he wants about Stroman or any other player, as long as it is within MLB's tampering rules. Two, Stroman has every right to respond to Cashman's comments, even if he does it in a silly "I'm not mad, I'm actually laughing" sorta way. Three, I agree that Stroman is not a difference-maker, and I said it at the time. From my July 16th post:

All things considered, Marcus Stroman is probably the best option for the Yankees at the trade deadline. Among the rumored trade candidates (Trevor Bauer, Madison Bumgarner, etc.), I think he's most likely to give you an acceptable performance down the stretch, and he has an elite carrying tool in his ground ball ability. I don't believe Stroman is a difference-making ace, but there is no difference-making ace out there, and he's the next best thing.

And four, saying Stroman would've been in the postseason bullpen is kinda dumb. That is definitely true now with Domingo German suspended and either J.A. Happ or the bullpen slated to start ALDS Game 4, but you can even look at it based on what we knew at the deadline. At the time James Paxton still hadn't hit his stride, we had no idea when Luis Severino would return (or how he'd look once he did return), German was approaching his career-high workload, and Happ was getting blasted every fifth day. Stroman may not be a difference-maker, but the Yankees didn't see him as a postseason rotation option when that was your rotation? Come on now. I'm not sure if Cashman was telling the truth or BSing to cover for the team's inactivity at the deadline -- it's probably the former given his long established I don't give a crap attitude -- but he had to know saying Stroman wouldn't have been in the postseason bullpen would sound silly. Props to him for saying it anyway. I appreciate the candid version of Cashman in this era of cliches. The Yankees absolutely should have added more pitching at the trade deadline. I don't know how many times I've written that the last few months, but they should've. A starter, a reliever, something. Instead, nothing, and now we're talking about Happ starting ALDS Game 4 and whether Cory Gearrin or Jonathan Loaisiga should be in the postseason bullpen. Gah. At least the Stroman stuff broke up the monotony of the final week of the regular season.

6. LeMahieu's batting title chances. DJ LeMahieu has pretty much no shot at the batting title now. He's hit .290 in his last 30 games, which is obviously very good, but that's not how you win a batting title. Tim Anderson has hit close to .400 the last two months and has a comfortable lead going into the final weekend:

1. Tim Anderson: .338
2. DJ LeMahieu: .328
3. Yoan Moncada: .312
4. Michael Brantley: .312
5. Rafael Devers: .310

If LeMahieu were to go 3-for-4 in all three games this weekend, it would raise his average to .33665. Anderson would need three hitless at-bats to fall below that mark. Doable? Sure, in theory, but probably not in reality. First of all, I doubt LeMahieu gets that many at-bats this weekend, and he needs volume. Yes, one single 3-for-4 would raise his batting average, but not enough to make up the 10 point gap with Anderson. He needs multiple big games to move the needle. The Yankees are preparing for the postseason and he'll get some rest in the final series of the season, as he should. Also, there's a pretty good chance the White Sox will sit Anderson the last game (or two?) to ensure he wins the batting title. We've seen that move countless times over the years. Props to Anderson. He's torn the cover off the ball all year and especially these last few weeks, and he won the batting title fair and square. It is a bummer LeMahieu fell short though. He had a chance to become the first player in baseball history to win a batting title in both leagues. That would've been incredibly cool. I guess that means he'll have to go out and win it next year, right? Right.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Paul asks: Should Brett Gardner get a plaque in Monument Park?

I am pretty liberal with plaques and retired numbers and all that so I say sure, give Gardner a plaque. He's been a great Yankee. Will the Yankees do it? Eh, probably not. My hunch is Gardner needs another World Series ring or three to find himself in Monument Park.

There are 28 players in Monument Park and, because I am a crazy person, I compiled a Monument Park WAR leaderboard (WAR with the Yankees only):

(Mon. means the player has a monument. All monuments have been awarded posthumously.)

Obviously some guys are in Monument Park for reasons that extend beyond their playing days. Martin was the manager (several times), Rizzuto was a broadcaster, Stottlemyre was a coach, so on and so forth. Maris and Reggie didn't have the longest stints with the Yankees but both made history, hence their plaques.

Gardner is sitting on 41.6 WAR at the moment and, depending how much longer he plays and how gracefully he ages, he could retire in the 45-50 WAR range. That's right at the Monument Park WAR average and puts him in the Mattingly/Bernie/Randolph tier. Based on that, Gardner wouldn't be out of place in Monument Park.

Monument Park is not only about player performance, however. Tino is in because he won four World Series titles, for example. Gardner was never the best player on the team and when he was the second or third best player, it was those 84-win postseason-less seasons. He was a high-end complementary player more than a cornerstone.

Another World Series ring or two could very well land Gardner in Monument Park. Right now, I think he's on the outside looking in, and I'm fine with that. Gardner will surely be back at Yankee Stadium for Old Timers' Day and all that, and it'll be cool. I'll remember him fondly.

(Will CC Sabathia get a plaque? I'd like to think so given how good he's been and the fact he was the ace of a World Series winner, plus all his community work, but who knows. Mike Mussina doesn't have a plaque and he out-WAR-ed Sabathia as a Yankee 35.1 to 30.1.)

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Jack asks: Is it time to start coaching players to play smarter, not harder? I was always a fan of Robinson Cano not busting his tail (for show) on routine groundouts to 2B. That's why he always played 160 games a year. We've now lost Gary Sanchez to injury trying to steal a base and Aaron Judge put himself at risk diving for a meaningless flyball in a game against the Angels. With the players and relievers the team is running out now it's clear the organization is taking the foot off the gas. I know the adage that you don't play to try and avoid injury, but you also don't have to put yourself in stupid situations, right?

Teams do this already! It's not as simple as saying "hey, don't dive for a ball," because the player's instincts take over during the game. You want players to be smart without taking away their aggressiveness and what makes them great, and it's not easy reigning in a world class athlete. The Sanchez stolen base was dumb as hell. That's easier to stop than telling a player not dive for a ball or crash into the wall (at least I think it is). Ultimately, it's up to the player to make better decisions, and that's not always easy. These guys aren't always wired to pull up and play with what amounts to less effort.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)