September 24th, 2019: Home Dominance, Postseason Rotation, Urshela, Loaisiga, Maybin & Wade, Postseason Opponents

Only six days and five games remain in the 2019 regular season. Crazy, isn't it? I swear, the season goes by a little quicker with each passing year. Here are today's thoughts as the Yankees try not to lose anyone else to injury this week.

1. Status report. Since shutting down RAB, I've felt a little out of the loop with the Yankees, especially when it comes to smaller trends or accomplishments. I guess you notice things and remember stuff more easily when you're writing about it every single day. So, just to get our ducks in a row with the final week of the regular season upon us, here is a recap of what the Yankees have clinched and what's still outstanding:

• Clinched the AL East title.
• Clinched homefield advantage over every AL team except the Astros.
• Clinched homefield advantage over every NL team except the Dodgers.
• Magic number to clinch homefield over Astros: 7
• Magic number to clinch homefield over Dodgers: 4
• 2020 1st round pick will come between picks No. 28-30.

Game 1 of the ALDS will be played in Yankee Stadium next Friday. It'll either be the Yankees and Twins or the Yankees and the Wild Card Game winner. As of this past weekend, there is no longer a scenario in which we could get a Yankees vs. Astros ALDS deathmatch. The magic number to clinch homefield advantage over the Astros is seven, which is a bit of a problem because the Yankees only have five games remaining. They need help. Houston has six games remaining (two at Mariners and four at Angels) and the Yankees have five games remaining (two at Rays and three at Rangers). The Yankees need seven of those 11 games to go their way (Yankees wins or Astros losses), which is a lot to ask. Even if Houston were to miraculously lose out, the Yankees would still have to win one game at some point to clinch homefield. The most likely scenario right now is the Yankees having homefield advantage over every team except the Astros, and hey, the Yankees and Astros aren't guaranteed to meet in the ALCS, so the homefield advantage thing might not even come into play. We'll see. That's where the Yankees are right now though. They've clinched a better record than every team except the Astros and Dodgers, and their first round pick in next year's draft will be no higher than No. 28 overall and no lower than No. 30 overall.

2. Dominance at home. The Yankees wrapped up the home portion of their 2019 regular season over the weekend. They went 57-24 with a +124 run differential at home this year, and went 20-3-3 in 26 home series. The three series losses were to the Orioles, Tigers, and White Sox back in April. Go figure. The 57-24 record ties the 2009 squad for the team's best home record since the 1998 Yankees went 62-19 at Yankee Stadium. This I did not expect:

2019 Yankees hitters at home: .263/.334/.474 (112 wRC+) and 143 HR
2019 Yankees hitters on the road: .275/.347/.511 (123 wRC+) and 155 HR

2019 Yankees pitchers at home: 3.62 ERA (4.15 FIP) and .301 wOBA allowed
2019 Yankees pitchers on the road: 5.01 ERA (4.80 FIP) and .334 wOBA allowed

The 2019 Yankees hit better away from their home run happy ballpark and pitch better in their home run happy ballpark. Huh. The differences are not small either. The Yankees have the highest road OBP, SLG, and wRC+ in baseball this season, and only five teams have a lower ERA at home (three of the five play in the non-DH league). It's possible some outlier series are skewing things. The London trip was a road series and the Yankees obliterated the Orioles in Camden Yards this year (they hit .320/.398/.725 with 43 homers in 10 games in Baltimore). Also, the Yankees had that historically poor pitching week on the road in Minnesota and Boston. With five more road games remaining, the Yankees have been very good away from Yankee Stadium this season (45-31 with a +88 run differential), although the home/road splits may not be what you expect. The hitters have performed worse while the pitchers have performed better in the Bronx. Winning a tight 1-0 or 2-1 postseason game at home would be completely on-brand, as unlikely as it may seem. "We’re pretty good, and we’re set up in a lot of ways with our power for this ballpark. It’s a place where you’re pretty much playing in front of a packed, energized crowd every night, which I think certainly fuels our guys and energizes our guys. I think to a man, they love playing here. We certainly love playing at Yankee Stadium," Aaron Boone told Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin over the weekend.

3. Postseason rotation. The ALDS rotation is set. The Yankees have not officially announced it yet -- they won't do that until next week sometime -- but the pitching plan the rest of the regular season makes it clear as day:

• Tuesday: Opener (with CC Sabathia in relief)
• Wednesday: Opener (with J.A. Happ in relief)
• Thursday: Off-day
• Friday: James Paxton
• Saturday: Luis Severino
• Sunday: Masahiro Tanaka

That lines up Paxton to start Game 1 next Friday, Severino to start Game 2 next Saturday, and Tanaka to start Game 3 the following Tuesday. The Yankees could always rearrange things -- they have four off-days between the end of the regular season and the start of the ALDS, which gives them plenty of flexibility -- but that is the likely ALDS rotation, and it is in no way surprising. Paxton is peaking at the right time and has been the team's best starter for two months now. He's the obvious choice for Game 1. Severino has thrown the ball incredibly well in his two starts back. He's looked as good as we could've reasonably hoped. With the way he's throwing -- after the long layoff, Severino has a nice fresh arm for October too, at least in theory -- he deserves the Game 2 nod. Start your two best in Games 1 and 2 and the Yankees appear to be doing exactly that. Also, it should be noted the schedule allows both Paxton (with extra rest) and Severino (on normal rest) to be available for Game 5, if necessary. Hell, maybe the Game 5 plan involves both Paxton and Severino pitching at some point. As for Game 3, that's an important swing game -- Game 3 means you could have a chance to advance, be eliminated, go up 2-1, or fall behind 1-2 -- and I suspect the Yankees are very comfortable lining up Tanaka for that game. He's been a stud in October and you know a big moment isn't going to shake him. His home/road splits are drastic, yes, but as I explained in last week's mailbag, the London Series and that 12-run disaster in Fenway Park are really skewing his road numbers. I'm comfortable with Tanaka pitching anywhere and it seems the Yankees are too. Like I said, the Yankees could always use next week's off-days to rearrange the rotation, but it sure looks set to me. Paxton, Severino, and Tanaka in Games 1-3, in that order. I'm cool with it. Let's do this.

4. Game 4 starter. Alright, so who starts ALDS Game 4? We know who's starting Games 1-3 even if the exact order has not be made official yet. With CC Sabathia's knee an ongoing issue and Domingo German suspended, the Yankees have two options for that Game 4 start: J.A. Happ or a bullpen game. Happ will pitch out of the bullpen this week -- "It is what it is. I’m comfortable with doing whatever it takes to try to win in the postseason," he told Dan Martin about possibly being used as a reliever in October -- presumably to prepare him for possibly being paired with an opener in the postseason. Happ has pitched better of late but I still don't trust him to start an important game, and the Yankees might not have any other choice at this point. Realistically, the Game 4 starter is going to be TBA until the morning of Game 4. I have to think the Yankees will see what kinda shape their pitching staff is in following Game 3 before making any decisions. If the bullpen is a mess, it might be Happ and hope he chews up innings. If the bullpen is in great shape, the Yankees could drop the hammer and bullpen that game (which could include Happ). Two things to remember. One, the Yankees are going to go all-out to win Game 3 no matter the series situation. They're not going to get cute and hold back a certain reliever or two because they might need him in Game 4. And two, there is an off-day between Games 4 and 5, so the Yankees could go nuts with their bullpen in Game 4 knowing that built-in rest day is coming. The best option for Game 4 is sweep the series and not play a Game 4. But, if there is a Game 4, I imagine the team's preference is to lean on their bullpen that game, and start Happ only if absolutely necessary. Game 4 means you can either advance or be eliminated. No middle ground. In either scenario, I have to think the Yankees trust their bullpen arms over Happ.

5. Urshela's slump. Gio Urshela is in a bit of a slump right now -- he is 0-for-15 in his last five games -- and it looks entirely related to his approach. He's been taking some huge swings the last few days, like this ...

... and that's not the Gio Urshela we all fell in love with earlier this season. Those big swings create problems with his balance and suggest he's pressing a little bit. He's not as compact and direct to the ball as he's been most of the season. It happens. Players slump during the long season -- Urshela had a 7-for-39 (.179) skid back in early June when it looked like the other shoe had dropped, but he quickly snapped out of it -- and Urshela has still been incredible overall. I mean, the guy is hitting .316/.356/.535 (132 wRC+) on the season. That is the 99th percentile outcome. Urshela doing that is why people hate the Yankees. Anyway, I bring this up because as good as he's been this season, Urshela's slump is poorly timed, and it could cost him a starting spot in the ALDS lineup, assuming Edwin Encarnacion comes back from his oblique injury (or Gary Sanchez comes back from his groin injury able to hit but not catch). Consider:

1. 3B DJ LeMahieu
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
4. 2B Gleyber Torres
5. DH Edwin Encarnacion
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. SS Didi Gregorius
8. 1B Luke Voit
9. CF Brett Gardner

Bench: C Austin Romine, 3B Gio Urshela, OF Cameron Maybin, UTIL Tyler Wade

The exact batting order isn't important right now. I'm just giving an example of a possible postseason lineup without Urshela. Encarnacion might return during this two-game series in Tampa -- "With the off day (Thursday) and three games in Texas, we’re certainly not going to push anything, but I do expect him to be as close to ready as possible probably by the middle of the week," Aaron Boone told Randy Miller -- and, assuming he is ready to go for the postseason, that leaves five infielders (Gregorius, LeMahieu, Torres, Urshela, Voit) for four infield spots. Someone has to sit, and sitting the guy in what could then be a two-week slump would be a pretty easy call, no? The Yankees could always pull Voit, shift LeMahieu to first base, and insert Urshela for defense later in the game. I hope -- hope -- the Yankees are in position to make the difficult "which infielder do we sit?" decision next week. Too many times this year they've gone from "wow they have so many good players" to "lol jk two more guys got hurt today" in the blink of an eye. With any luck, Urshela will get himself back on track at the plate in these final five games, and Encarnacion (and Sanchez) will get healthy over the next week, and the Yankees will be forced to make a very tough lineup decision come ALDS Game 1. The more good players playing at their best, the better. “Hopefully we have difficult decisions on a nightly basis. Who we are playing, who we are facing, who is pitching for us, all those things go into it. Then you try and make the best decisions possible with the best guys out there ... The bottom line, as it’s proven out this year for us more than we could ever imagine, it’s going to take our entire roster if we’re going to do something special in the postseason. That’s my anticipation, and these things have a way of also working themselves out. I’m confident all our guys will be ready to go and ready to perform," Boone told Randy Miller.

6. Loaisiga in October. Jonathan Loaisiga has looked great since rejoining the Yankees last month. In his last eight outings he's allowed three runs in 13 innings, and held hitters to a .222/.333/.333 batting line with 17 strikeouts. Control has been an issue at times but in six of those eight appearances he walked no more than one batter. His velocity has been way up as well, which is a very good sign considering he missed three months with a shoulder strain earlier this year. Loaisiga hit 100.2 mph (!) on Saturday and backed it up with a breaking ball that dove right off the table:

"He threw the ball great. When you see him throw the ball like he did today, you know he’s capable of that. He has a special arm ... It was a very encouraging outing for him, and these are important outings down the stretch," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin following Saturday's game. The Dellin Betances injury and Domingo German suspension open two spots on the postseason roster, and, even if we assume Luis Cessa gets one of those spots -- Cessa has been perfectly fine as the long man and he's been on the roster all season, so I assume he has a leg up on a spot -- that's still one spot to fill. Given their recent usage, I think it comes down to Loaisiga or Cory Gearrin. Gearrin is a useful right-on-right weapon, but gosh, could the Yankees really pass on Loaisiga with the way he's been throwing the ball? The ability to miss bats is at a premium in October and Loaisiga misses way more bats than Gearrin ...

• Gearrin: 19.5 K% and 8.1% swings and misses
• Loaisiga: 26.6 K% and 14.1% swings and misses

... and he can give you two (or even three) innings at a time. We are talking about the last guy in the bullpen here, and that guy usually doesn't pitch much in the postseason, but I could totally see Loaisiga being someone who saves the day one night by replacing the struggling starter and holding the other team down long enough for the offense to get back in the game. Gearrin can't do that, and, frankly, in any important right-on-right matchup situation, it'll be Adam Ottavino on the mound. Aside from veteran experience, I feel like anything Gearrin brings to the table, Loaisiga does as well, plus he can go multiple innings. With the way Loaisiga has been throwing the ball this month, I have a hard time believing Gearrin is a better postseason option than Johnny Lasagna. His stuff will play in October. "I would say anything and everything is on the table. We’re starting to talk through some potential scenarios now. Those conversations will continue until we set our (postseason) roster and then maybe even as the first round unfolds," Boone told Martin.

7. The pinch-running specialist. Tyler Wade will be the pinch-runner in the postseason, not Cameron Maybin, right? Maybin stepped up huge for the Yankees earlier this year and he's been a great clubhouse guy, but my man is 9-for-15 (60%) in stolen base attempts, and small sample size or not, that ain't good enough to be the go-to baserunning threat. Wade is 7-for-7 in steal attempts at the big league level this year and he's taken the extra base on a hit (first-to-third on a single, etc.) an insane 83% of the time this season. It's 71% of the time in his MLB career. Maybin is at 54%, which is above the 41% league average, but it's not close to Wade. Statcast says Maybin and Wade have similar sprint speeds (28.7 ft/s vs. 29.0 ft/s) but sprint speed is only a snapshot -- sprint speed is "feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window" -- and I think Wade gets to that top speed quicker, and I also think he cuts the bases better (I have no evidence to back that up, it's all based on the eye test). Wade can really fly and I think he's the best pinch-running option on the roster. He's been a more successful stealing bases than Maybin and he takes the extra base at an elite rate as well, plus he's the fastest guy on the roster, anecdotally. And remember, this isn't necessarily an either/or situation. There is room for both Wade and Maybin on the postseason roster, but Wade's speed is a greater weapon. That can (and will) be leveraged in close postseason games. Pinch-run Wade and if he scores, great, the game is probably tied or the Yankees have taken the lead. And, if he doesn't, the Yankees have probably either lost the game (because we're talking about an eighth or ninth inning pinch-running situation) or are tied with the spare infielder on the bench to pinch-hit for Wade later in the game (at least when he doesn't pinch-run for Gary Sanchez). The Yankees have five regular season games remaining and I think Wade should pinch-run in all five games to prepare him for October. It's not easy coming off the bench cold and going 0-60 at a moment's notice. He's the man for that job.

8. Ranking postseason opponents. Three weeks ago I ranked the various American League contenders according to who I want the Yankees to play in the postseason. The teams that I think are the best matchups, basically. I figure it's time to update those rankings with six days to go in the regular season. I know this exercise is ripe for second guessing and the potential to look stupid is astronomically high, but I'm doing it anyway:

1. Indians (previously No. 3)
2. Athletics (No. 2)
3. Rays (No. 1)
4. Twins (No. 4)
5. Astros (No. 5)

The Indians jump to the top of the rankings because they are really beat up right now. Jason Kipnis is done for the season with hamate surgery and Jose Ramirez is rushing back from his own hamate surgery. He had surgery August 26th and will return to the lineup tonight (he's been taking batting practice the last few days). Given everything we know about hamate surgery -- it usually takes 6-8 weeks to return and, even after coming back, it can sap power for weeks -- it's hard to believe he will be at full strength in October. Also, closer Brad Hand is dealing with an undisclosed arm issue that has limited him to three appearances since Aug. 29th, and starters Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and Aaron Civale are all well beyond their previous career high workloads. The Indians are 10-3 in their last 13 games but they are hardly in great shape at the moment, so they're the team I most want the Yankees to face in the postseason. Too bad they're on the outside looking in at the moment (half-a-game behind the second wildcard spot). The Rays move down the rankings because Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell have both returned from their elbow injuries this month and are looking good, especially Glasnow. They're not fully stretched out -- Glasnow has topped out at three innings and 52 pitches while Snell maxed out at two innings and 52 pitches -- but even in short bursts those guys can have an impact. Tampa just might piggyback those two dudes in October and that could be devastating. I'm still confident the Yankees can beat the Rays in a short series. I mean, they've done it all year. I'm just slightly less confident now than I was three weeks ago because Glasnow and Snell are healthy.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)