September 20th, 2019: To-Do List, Severino, Stanton, German, King, ALDS Roster & Rotation, AzFL, Minor League Coaches, Mailbag

AL East champs. We've known it would happen for weeks now, but damn, doesn't it feel good? It had been entirely too long since the last time the Yankees won the division. Glad they got that done properly with a win last night. That was much better than waiting around to see whether the Rays lose. Here are today's thoughts, two weeks before the Yankees begin the ALDS.

1. The to-do list. Clinching the AL East title really was only the first step toward winning the World Series. The Yankees have eight regular season games remaining and they still have some things to accomplish in that time. In no particular order:

• Secure homefield advantage.
• Get healthy (at least as much as possible).
• Rest the late-inning relievers.
• Line up the postseason rotation. 
• Have a CC Sabathia ceremony.

The Yankees are facing an uphill battle for homefield advantage at this point. The Astros won the season series, so they hold the tiebreaker. The Yankees have to finish ahead of the Astros to get homefield and they're currently one game back in the loss column. They have to play two games better than the Astros the rest of the way and that won't be easy with only eight games to play, especially since Houston's remaining schedule is seven games with the Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani-less Angels and two with the Mariners. I suppose the good news is the Yankees are in good position to secure homefield advantage against everyone except the Astros, and it is hardly a guarantee those two teams will meet in October. As for getting healthy, I'm talking specifically about Edwin Encarnacion and Gary Sanchez (and I guess Aaron Judge as well since he jammed his shoulder attempting that diving catch the other day, though that seems minor). Those two are the last of the cavalry. No other injured players are expected back this year. Encarnacion and Sanchez are said to be healing well but they have not yet resumed baseball activities. There's a decent chance those two will go into the ALDS without playing a regular season tune-up game(s) first. So it goes. Resting the relievers is pretty important because the Yankees are going to lean on those guys heavily in October, so you want them fresh. Adam Ottavino in particular has looked a little worn down lately, which isn't surprising for a dude with 70 appearances. Those guys carried a heavy workload this year. Anything more than two appearances for Ottavino, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle in these final eight games would be pushing it, I think. They've earned the rest. (This seems like a good opportunity to get a longer look at Jonathan Loaisiga.) Lining up the rotation is a piece of cake. The Yankees just have to select an ALDS rotation order and get everyone lined up properly and with enough rest. It's easy enough but it is important and it has to be done. And finally, the Sabathia ceremony is obvious. It doesn't have to be a big Derek Jeter or Mariano Rivera style blowout. Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira had quaint on-field ceremonies prior to their final home games and Sabathia deserves the same. Do it Sunday before the regular season home finale. It would be kinda weird (and inappropriate) to wait until October. The AL East title is clinched, but that doesn't mean there isn't more work to be done these next 10 days.

2. Severino's return. Man it was good to see Luis Severino on the mound again. He looked great too. Threw the ball free and easy, held his velocity all night -- his 67th and final pitch checked in at 98.0 mph -- and he generated nine swings and misses (13.4% of pitches thrown) against an Angels offense that went into the game with the second lowest swing-and-miss rate in baseball (8.8%). "Sevy did well. Obviously pitched great tonight. Another huge step back for him. Really excited for him and for how well he threw the ball. What I loved is just how in control he was with his delivery. The stuff was very good, but it wasn't like he was reaching for it or trying to do it. He really stayed within himself the entire night, and really gave us four outstanding innings," Aaron Boone said following the game. Here are the key numbers:

2018 fastball: 97.6 mph and 2,365 rpm
2019 fastball: 96.6 mph and 2,240 rpm

2018 slider: 88.1 mph and 2,873 rpm
2019 slider: 84.4 mph and 2,699 rpm

Velocity and spin were both down, but that's to be expected following a long layoff and a short minor league rehab assignment (7.2 innings). Severino is still in Spring Training mode, and besides, what he showed Tuesday night is plenty good enough. "I feel ready. Fastball command I think was great. I still need to work a little more on my sliders to left-handers," he said. Severino has two starts remaining and they'll help him build arm strength and get his pitch count up over 80. I didn't really know what to expect going into Tuesday night -- I am naturally skeptical of pitchers being effectively immediately after returning from major injuries -- and I was blown away. Severino looked great and looked like someone who can help the Yankees in the postseason. He looks like someone who is a few more tune-up innings away from really dominating. I'm really happy with what I saw. "I watched his minor league outings on video, I've watched his sides, and I felt like today was another step forward. I thought he really commanded his fastball well. Flashed some really good sliders. Changeup was decent. All things that hopefully continue to get tightened up even more. With Sevy there's still room to improve too. I was really encouraged by this step," Boone added.

3. Stanton's return. Giancarlo Stanton is back! Finally. Remember when the Yankees said his knee injury was a day-to-day thing way back in June? Good times in injury management. Anyway, Stanton looked pretty good in his first game back. He ripped a double in his first at-bat and put his two balls in play at 106.6 mph and 113.4 mph. That elite hard-hit ability is still in there, not that I expected it to go away. Yesterday's game didn't go as well (0-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts), but that's baseball. It's part of the process of getting back up to speed at the plate. Timing is going to be the biggest issue after that long layoff, not exit velocity. Stanton wasn't really tested in left field the other night -- the only ball hit his way was a ground ball single and his throw to the plate was right on the money, but Kyle Higashioka couldn't handle it -- but just going out there and standing around for six innings was encouraging. He'll have to run around to make plays in left field soon enough. I'm more than fine with an easy first game back, defensively. Not-so-fun fact: Yankees left fielders are hitting .211/.299/.386 (82 wRC+) since August 1st. Mike Tauchman cooled down considerably before his injury and Cameron Maybin has hit .167/.257/.318 (52 wRC+) in his last 22 games (including last night's homer), possibly because he's been playing through a nagging wrist issue. Clint Frazier has started five of 17 games in September and the Yankees clearly consider him a non-factor. On one hand, Stanton doesn't have to do much to be an offensive upgrade over what the Yankees have received from their left fielders recently. On the other hand, the goal is to be the best team possible, so the more Giancarlo provides, the better. It's not about clearing some low bar. It's about being the most dangerous team possible. Edwin Encarnacion and Gary Sanchez are hurt and their return timetables are a little up in the air right now. That makes Stanton that much more important. I'm glad he's back in the lineup and I'm glad he's looked good-ish through through two games. The Yankees need him more than this year's wildly successful Next Man Up approach may lead you to believe. "For not being out there for a few months, I felt good in the box and moved around pretty well in the outfield. It was a good start," Stanton told Mollie Walker following Wednesday's game. (Idea: Why not bat Stanton leadoff these last few days to get him as many at-bats as possible?)

4. German's suspension. MLB announced yesterday that Domingo German has been placed on administrative leave under the league's domestic violence policy. That is standard operating procedure as MLB conducts its investigation. Usually we hear about an incident beforehand (an arrest, etc.), but not in this case. It came out of nowhere. There are conflicting reports about what happened, but Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch and Lindsey Adler that he "heard the whispers" a suspension was coming down Tuesday. Hopefully it was late Tuesday, because man, if the Yankees knew German was about to be suspended for a domestic violence incident and pitched him in Tuesday's game anyway, it would be appalling. We have no idea what happened but clearly something happened because MLB is investigating. The Yankees released the following statement yesterday:

“We fully support all measures being undertaken by the Commissioner’s Office pursuant to the Policy on Domestic Violence. We support this policy which reinforces that domestic violence has no place in our society and cannot be tolerated. We have followed the lead of Major League Baseball and will continue to provide our complete cooperation throughout the investigative process. We reserve any further comment until the investigation reaches its conclusion. All questions pertaining to this matter should be directed to the Office of the Commissioner.”

That rings a little hollow after the Yankees leveraged a domestic violence investigation in trade talks a few years ago, but maybe they're becoming less tolerant with this stuff. I'll need to see it to believe it. If you read RAB around the time of the first Aroldis Chapman trade, you know I have no interest in rooting for people who hurt other people like this, no matter how well they play baseball. As for the on-field impact, MLB tends to take their time and be very thorough with their investigations, so until we hear otherwise, we have to assume German is done for the year. Even if MLB wraps up their investigation soon, he will be suspended -- players are always suspended some number of games following a domestic violence investigation, even without criminal charges -- and he may miss the postseason. The league determines postseason-eligibility on a case-by-case basis in these situations. Julio Urias was suspended 20 games last month and he will be eligible to play in October, but Odubel Herrera was suspended 85 games earlier this year and is not postseason-eligible. Again, postseason-eligibility is determined on a case-by-case basis. Frankly, I would be shocked if MLB allows a player to pitch for their highest profile team in October two weeks after launching a domestic violence investigation. For now, we have to assume the Yankees will be without German the rest of the year, so they're down one of their top four starting pitchers. Hopefully everyone involved is okay and gets the help they need. That's more important than grown men playing with bats and balls in pajamas.

5. King's promotion. The Yankees called up pitching prospect Mike King yesterday to take Domingo German's spot on the roster -- German does not count against the 40-man roster while on administrative leave -- and he threw a bit in the bullpen during last night's game, though that was only because he hadn't pitched in a while (last game action was Sept. 12th). Realistically, King is just an extra body to make sure no one important works too hard before the postseason, but I do hope he gets into a game or two. He's a bit of a throwback. Deivi Garcia is a modern pitching prospect to the fullest. Big fastball, big spin rates, a little wild, the works. King is a four-pitch guy (two-seamer, cutter, slider, changeup) with good but not overwhelming velocity, very good control, and 80-grade moxie. Whenever he gets into a game, you'll see that King loves to front door the two-seamer to lefties to get comeback called strikes, like this (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris):

Once upon a time King would be classified as a low ceiling/high floor pitching prospect, but we're in the build-a-pitcher era where guys exceed projections. Pretty much no one thought Shane Bieber would be this good, for example. Jacob deGrom and Jack Flaherty where similar command guys who improved the quality of their stuff and blew past their projected ceilings. I'm not saying King will be as good as those guys -- Bieber, Flaherty, and especially deGrom are truly incredible -- it's just that it doesn't make much sense to put a ceiling or a label on a guy anymore. King has good stuff and good aptitude and that goes a long way. The elbow injury earlier this year sabotaged his season -- had the stress reaction not kept him out until July, I'm guessing King would've make some spot starts or been paired with an opener when the Yankees needed pitching help over the summer -- and chances are King will only throw a handful innings in these final eight games, so he won't have much time to make impression. Next year should be his coming out party though, and I think it's possible he will be better than expected (and quickly). I'm looking forward to seeing him in the coming days, even if it's only 2-3 innings.

6. ALDS roster projection. Last week I laid out a potential ALDS roster and joked that we'll revisit it again this week once the Yankees suffer their next round of injuries. Sure enough, Dellin Betances went down with a partially torn Achilles this week. That sucks so much. But, life goes on, as does baseball. The Yankees haven't had Betances all season so nothing has really changed in that regard. The injury did open a postseason bullpen spot though. Here's my new ALDS roster projection:

Four changes from last week. One, Luis Severino goes from SP/RP hybrid to SP only. We'll see how the next two starts go, but Severino looked plenty good Tuesday night, so get him in the rotation. Severino as a starter gives the Yankees their best chance to advance (more on the postseason rotation order in a bit). Two and three, middle man Cory Gearrin and long man Luis Cessa replace Betances and Domingo German on the pitching staff. Jonathan Loaisiga's ability to throw multiple innings could come in handy with German unavailable, but Gearrin shuts down righties (.302 wOBA allowed), and I think that'll be more useful in the postseason. How often do you need the last guy in the bullpen to soak up innings in October anyway? Gearrin will likely be more useful than Loaisiga, and besides, Cessa is available to go multiple innings, if necessary. Either way, I don't expect the last guy in the bullpen to pitch much in the postseason. That's usually the way it goes. And finally, Encarnacion replaces Thairo Estrada on the bench. Encarnacion is supposedly doing well with his oblique strain rehab -- it's more accurate to say the healing is going well because he hasn't started actual baseball activity yet -- and is expected to start hitting before the season ends. I don't know if he'll play before the regular season ends, but it sounds like Encarnacion will be ready to go in time for the ALDS, so he's on my roster. I have Encarnacion on the bench for now because, well, someone in that group has to be on the bench, so it might as well be the guy who might not play before the end of the regular season. Playing time is something the Yankees will figure out later, not two weeks before the postseason. Estrada or Clint Frazier (or Mike Ford) would be the replacement should Encarnacion be unable to go. Kyle Higashioka would obviously take Sanchez's place should Gary's groin injury linger, and Loaisiga is presumably the next man up on the pitching staff. We'll look at this again next Friday and adjust as necessary. Hopefully there are no more injuries between now and then.

7. The "untraditional" pitching staff. Earlier this week Tom Verducci wrote a piece about the unconventional ways the Yankees could use their pitching staff in October. Here's the relevant snippet:

“We’re going to be a little untraditional,” manager Aaron Boone said. “The only one we might use as a traditional starter is [James] Paxton.”

By traditional, Boone means a starting pitcher who goes as deep as he can into a game. Otherwise, New York is prepared to script each game with piggyback starters and six key relievers. That doesn’t make the Yankees vulnerable. It makes them smart.

Those "six key relievers" are now five key relievers because Dellin Betances is injured, so already this plan is going off the rails. It seems fait accompli that Paxton will start Game 1 of the ALDS in two weeks, and that makes sense. He's been great the last two months and can shut down any lineup on his best days. The Yankees sound prepared to push Paxton deep into the game and have a quick hook with everyone else. This is how I expect the ALDS rotation to shake out now that Domingo German is a non-option:

• Game 1: James Paxton
• Game 2: Luis Severino
• Game 3: Masahiro Tanaka
• Game 4: J.A. Happ or bullpen game
• Game 5: James Paxton

Those are the team's three best starters and those are the guys the Yankees should start in the first three games in the ALDS. It really is that simple. Put your best guys on the mound, react accordingly, and give yourself the best chance to win. Game 4 could very well come down to who is available. Tired bullpen? Happ it is. Everyone relatively fresh? Bullpen it. The German situation may force the Yankees to consider using CC Sabathia as a starter in the postseason, even if he's only a one time through the order guy, but for now I assume he'll be in the bullpen. The Yankees would obviously rather have four workhorse starters who could go 6-7 innings each time out over their current situation. That isn't their reality though, so they're going to have to make it work with bullpen games and quick hooks and piggyback starters. Not ideal, but it's what the Yankees have to do. And for it to work, Boone has to be a lot better this postseason than he was last postseason, when he left his starters in way too long in Games 3 and 4. The whole "untraditional" plan only works when the guy pulling the strings is on top of things. Boone's inexperience or inability to read the situation or both really stood out last postseason and I sure hope he's better prepared this October. The Yankees have made it no secret they could use openers or piggyback starters or whatever in the postseason, and of course the front office either has already or will soon sit down with Boone and the coaching staff, and lay out strategies for October. Whether Boone recognizes situations as they unfold in real-time and reacts accordingly is another matter. The "untraditional" pitching plan sounds great and I am generally all for it given the state of the roster. I would be lying if I said I feel comfortable with Boone calling the shots after last postseason. I think he's a great manager overall -- Joe Girardi is a good manager, but I'm not sure how he would've handled all the injuries this year -- but yeah, last year's ALDS is not going on his highlight reel. (Side note: Verducci's ALDS rotation plan calls for two starters to appear twice in the series: Paxton and Happ. Uhhh.)

8. Tanaka as a "floater." In his recent article, Tom Verducci mentioned Aaron Boone said Masahiro Tanaka could be used as a "floater" in the postseason, and I have absolutely no idea what that means. Tanaka has never made a relief appearance with the Yankees -- he did come out of the bullpen to pitch the ninth inning of Game 7 in the 2013 Japan Series the day after throwing a 160-pitch complete game in Game 6 -- and I don't think it'll happen in the ALDS, especially not when there is zero indication the Yankees will use him in relief down the stretch to prepare him for such a role. Could that "floater" designation mean the Yankees will use Tanaka in either Game 3 or Game 4 depending on the series situation? Say, for example, the Yankees are planning to start Tanaka in Game 3 if they are down 0-2 in the series because he's been nails in October and they trust him with their season on the line, otherwise they're going to save him for Game 4, which is guaranteed to be an elimination game for one of the two teams. Could that be it? I really have no idea what that "floater" concept could be and maybe the Yankees don't either. They might still be trying to figure things out two weeks before the ALDS. The Yankees like to give Tanaka extra rest whenever possible and he's big into his routine, so it seems unlikely he would be the guy they move around the series depending on the score and whatnot, or even use out of the bullpen in a piggybacking role. I have no doubt Tanaka would be open to any role in October. That dude is a pro's pro who puts winning above all else. It just seems unlikely the Yankees would change everything about the way they've handled him over the years this postseason, especially with how well he's pitched lately and in October overall. Chances are we won't see this "floater" concept in action this postseason -- Domingo German's unavailability may've thrown a wrench into this plan -- but I sure hope we find out what it means at some point. Intrigue!

9. Arizona Fall League. The AzFL season started earlier this week -- the season was moved up this year to eliminate the month-long wait following the minor league postseason -- and OF Josh Stowers hit a home run on Opening Day. Here's video. When we last discussed the AzFL, the Yankees still had two pitching roster spots to fill. One went to RHP Aaron McGarity and the other was never filled, apparently. The Yankees gave McGarity the full slot $125,000 bonus as their 15th rounder in 2017 after he battled injuries at Virginia Tech. They liked his arm and rolled the dice, and this season McGarity threw 57.2 relief innings with a 2.50 ERA (2.43 FIP) and excellent strikeout (28.9%) and walk (5.0%) rates in the lower levels. He's a mid-90s fastball guy who can really spin a curveball. Those final few TBA AzFL roster spots always seem to go to fringe prospects the team wants to learn more about. McGarity had a good season and is finally healthy, so he'll get to showcase himself in the desert these next few weeks. To me, this AzFL season is about Stowers building on a strong first full pro season, and RHP Glenn Otto getting some innings. Otto has nasty stuff but staying healthy has been an issue. I think he could fly through the system as a reliever as long as he, you know, stays on the field. The Yankees did not send the most exciting group of prospects to the AzFL this year, so Stowers and Otto (and I guess McGarity) are the guys worth watching these next six weeks.

10. Minor league coaching changes. After an underwhelming season in the farm system, the Yankees are parting ways with several notable minor league instructors. Senior director of player development Kevin Reese confirmed to George King that pitching coordinator Scott Aldred, Low-A Charleston hitting coach Greg Colbrunn, hitting coordinator Edwar Gonzalez, Double-A Trenton hitting coach Ty Hawkins, and field coordinator Jody Reed will not have their contracts renewed. Also, pitching coordinator Danny Borrell left the Yankees to become the pitching coach at Georgia Tech a few weeks ago. All six men had been with the organization a very, very long. I had a feeling changes were coming once the Yankees started hiring coaches away from colleges and independent training facilities (and the Astros) earlier this year. A quick recap of the new hires and their titles:

• Director of pitching Sam Briend (hired from Driveline Baseball)
• Manager of pitch development Desi Druschel (hired from University of Iowa)
• Pitching coach Dustin Glant (hired from Ball State)
• Hitting coordinator Dillon Lawson (hired from Astros)
• High-A Tampa hitting coach Joe Migliaccio (hired from University of Iowa)

Here's a great piece on Druschel and Lawson using analytics at the college level. Once the Yankees started hiring all these new school coaches, the writing was on the wall for the old guard. Aldred, Borrell, and Hawkins all predate former farm system head Gary Denbo. They were hired during the Mark Newman years. Denbo joined Derek Jeter with the Marlins last year and Reese is now remaking the player development staff. The Yankees had several big name prospects -- big name hitting prospects, I should specify -- take a step back in 2019. Antonio Cabello, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira, even Anthony Seigler. When your farm system produces hitters like Miguel Andujar, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Gleyber Torres is a short period of time, it's easy to assume everything is going a-okay in the minors. That was not the case this year. Too many talented hitters stalled out, so it's unsurprising several hitting instructors were replaced. New pitching instructors were brought in as well. Baseball is constantly evolving and change can be necessary to stay up to speed, and the Yankees are making several changes with their player development staff. Welcome news, as far as I'm concerned.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Ace asks: Just saw your post regarding Severino in the postseason. Wouldn't the Yanks want Tanaka pitching at home in the ALDS given his home/away splits (e.g., ERA almost being double on the road). Or are you not worried about Tanaka on the road? 

Masahiro Tanaka's home/road splits are extreme this season. Look at this:

• Home: 3.10 ERA (3.78 FIP) with 4.72 K/BB in 98.1 innings
• Road: 6.16 ERA (4.92 FIP) with 2.95 K/BB in 80.1 innings

Personally, I'm not worried about the home/road splits because Tanaka's road numbers are skewed heavily by two disaster outings against the Red Sox. He gave up six runs and got two outs in London (a road game for the Yankees) and was torched for 12 runs in 3.1 innings at Fenway Park on July 25th. That is 32% of his road runs allowed in 5% of his road innings. 

Tanaka's road numbers are much better excluding those two games: 4.36 ERA (4.37 FIP). Of course, those two disaster games did happen and we can't just erase them from memory, but I do believe they are outliers and not representative of what we can expect from Tanaka on the road going forward. His track record is long enough to tell us he can pitch anywhere.

Do you arrange the postseason rotation to ensure Tanaka starts at home? Eh, maybe, but it's hard for me to buy into James Paxton and Luis Severino not being your Games 1 and 2 starters (in either order). With Tanaka, I don't think the home/road splits are a big deal. He can pitch anywhere.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Julian asks: Based on Romine's decent offensive numbers the last two years and the weak crop of MLB catchers, I would assume he will get a starting job somewhere else. What kind of contract could Romine possibly fetch? 2 year $8-$10 million? Also, do you think the Yankees trust Higashioka to backup next year or will they turn to a veteran like Erik Kratz? 

Decent catchers are always in demand and Austin Romine, to his credit, has followed up last year's career year with a .280/.311/.435 (95 wRC+) batting line this season. Every time Gary Sanchez goes on the injured list, Romine turns into Sanchez and starts smashing the ball. It will never not be weird. I think he'll get offers to start.

That said, Romine has never been a starting catcher, so he won't get a starting catcher's contract on par with the Wilson Ramos (two years, $19M) and Welington Castillo (two years, $15M) deals. A list of recent free agent catcher contracts possibly relevant to Romine:

• Kurt Suzuki: 2 years, $10M
• Chris Iannetta: 2 years, $8.5M
• Alex Avila: 2 year, $8.25M

Romine has done enough to get a multi-year contract, which in this case means two years rather than three or four. Two years at $4M to $5M per season seems to be the going rate for those "he's a good backup who could maybe start" catchers, and Romine's in that group.

Earlier this year Romine was on the R2C2 podcast and he said he wants to start. Of course he does. Romine turns 31 in November and this might be his only chance to secure a nice free agent contract. He has to do what's best for him and his family, and I think that's taking the most money with a team that will give him the most playing time.

Are the Yankees willing to pay their backup catcher upwards of $5M per season? Recent history suggests no. Should they? Absolutely. They're a World Series contender with the game's deepest pockets, and if they truly consider Romine one of the best backup catchers in baseball, give him the dinky $5M per year to stick around. Will they though? Eh, not sure.

If Romine leaves, Kyle Higashioka would be the obvious in-house candidate to step in as backup catcher. He hasn't hit in his MLB stints this year (11-for-49 with 22 strikeouts), but he raked again in Triple-A (.278/.358/.581 for a 129 wRC+), and he knows the pitching staff. Also, Higashioka will be out of options next year, so no more easily stashing him in Triple-A.

The guess here is the Yankees would look for a cheap backup (one year and $2M?) should Romine leave. Maybe someone like Martin Maldonado (here's the list of free agents). If that doesn't come together, a Spring Training competition between Higashioka and non-roster invitees could be in the cards. The backup catcher situation will be a sneaky important storyline this winter.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)