September 16th, 2019: Severino, Stanton, Betances, Montgomery, Sabathia, Wade, Minor League Awards

At some point this week, possibly as soon as Wednesday, the Yankees will clinch their first AL East title since 2012. I was hoping they'd be able to do it tomorrow with Luis Severino on the mound, but things didn't work out. Too bad. The magic number is three. Anyway, I'm going out of town for a few days this week, so here is Tuesday's post a day early.

1. Severino's return. At long last, Luis Severino will rejoin the Yankees tomorrow night. He's slated to throw 65-ish pitches in the series opener with the Angels. "The guys here did a good job all year and being back at this time means a lot to me. A lot of guys have been working hard all year and now it comes to me to do my part," Severino told Pete Caldera over the weekend. What to watch tomorrow? In no particular order:

• Velocity. The more, the better, but it's okay if it's still down a little.
• Slider quality. Does it have its usual snap and miss bats? That's important.
• Location. Severino doesn't need A+ control to succeed, but he might be wild at first.
• Stamina. Holding the velocity all game will tell us where he's at physically.

Obvious statements are obvious, I know. That's the important stuff though. Is the stuff firm? Is he locating? Is he strong enough to hold his stuff deep into the game? Given the nature of his injury, the long layoff, and the fact he's still kinda in Spring Training mode, it would not be surprising if Severino tires out a bit in the third or fourth inning. And if he does, that's fine, he's still building up. The most important thing is that, after a season on the sidelines, the Yankees are getting their ace back tomorrow night, and there's still enough time left this season to get him fully up to speed before the postseason. There were times this season it felt like Severino would never return. Now he's finally back with 11 games to go, and it most certainly is better late than never. "A young pitcher with his ability and his track record already, a guy that we feel like is going to anchor the rotation for a long time. You miss those big innings, those big outings a guy like that can give you, and how he affects the rest of the staff as well. We’ve missed another great pitcher capable of matching up with other great pitchers around the league," Aaron Boone told Kristie Ackert.

2. Stanton's return. Giancarlo Stanton is expected to return to the Yankees sometime this week. The Yankees haven't said when, exactly, but it'll be soon. Stanton's spent the last few days getting at-bats in Instructional League and apparently everything is going well. "G had a really good day (Saturday). I do expect him at some point on the homestand. Not necessarily Tuesday -- I wouldn’t rule it out, necessarily --  but I wouldn’t expect it," Aaron Boone told Erik Boland over the weekend. With Aaron Hicks and Mike Tauchman essentially done for the year, and Edwin Encarnacion and Gary Sanchez out for who knows how long, the Yankees need all the help they can get offensively. There is enough time for Stanton to get about 40 plate appearances before the regular season ends, which is roughly how many Aaron Judge needed to get back to normal following his wrist injury last season. Different injuries and all that, I know, but that's the only real comparison we have for a dude coming back from a long layoff without a proper minor league rehab assignment. "It may be a situation too where we build him up where he doesn’t play the entire game … however many at-bats or innings in the outfield, then pull him and build him up that way," Boone told Randy Miller over the weekend. Whenever he comes back, chances are Stanton will strike out a bunch and we'll see meatballs either fouled back or rolled over, and people will complain like hell because I swear all people do with Stanton is complain. That's usually what it looks like when a player comes back before he has a chance to get his timing down at the plate though. Similar to Dellin Betances and Luis Severino, the Yankees don't necessarily need Giancarlo to come back and help them win games this month. They're in great shape already. The goal is getting Stanton enough at-bats and outfield reps to prepare him for October. Giancarlo is a game-changing talent and the sooner he comes back, the better. "He’s responded well and continues to build momentum. I’ve texted with him and I think he really feels over the last couple of weeks that he’s starting to feel good about the progress that he’s making and kind of getting to that end game of being game ready to play," Boone told Miller.

3. Dellin's return. Dellin Betances is back! And he looked pretty good too. Two batters, two strikeouts on Sunday. He forgot how many outs there were and it was adorable. Betances only threw eight pitches, but it was his first time pitching with less than two days rest this year, so I assume he was on a pitch limit. Maybe 10-15 pitches and they didn't want him to start another at-bat? Not sure. Anyway, Dellin's velocity was obviously down. He threw five fastballs: 93.8 mph, 94.4 mph, 94.9 mph, 94.3 mph, 94.7 mph, in that order. His fastball has averaged up over 98 mph the last three years, and while his velocity is always down early in the season (as he builds up), it's never been down this much:

"You're a command guy now," Aaron Boone jokingly told Betances following Sunday's game, according to James Wagner. Two things to keep in mind here. One, Betances missed close to an entire season with a shoulder injury and that's a lot of rust to shake off. He threw only three minor league rehab innings, so he's still early in what is essentially his Spring Training program. And two, a fastball that sits 94-95 mph is plenty good enough to get out Major League hitters, especially when you can back it up with a breaking ball like Dellin's. The fastball (2,424 rpm vs. 2,362 rpm) and breaking ball (2,634 rpm vs. 2,553 rpm) spin rates yesterday were excellent -- Betances has always posted top of the line spin rates -- and actually up a tick from last year, so that's good. There's not much season remaining and we'll have to keep an eye on the velocity, especially once Betances begins pitching more regularly on one day's rest or even on back-to-back days. Overall though, the first look was very good. Glad to see Dellin back on the mound and I'm looking forward to him continuing to build up. He could be some kinda weapon as the No. 6 reliever in the bullpen in October. "Hopefully we continue to see the tick up of the fastball. It looked like he was mostly around 94 today consistently. Again, hopefully this is another step in him kind of building up. But to have him come out and be as sharp with his command as he was was encouraging," Boone told Erik Boland.

4. Montgomery's return. Also good to see Jordan Montgomery get back on a big league mound this weekend. It didn't go too well (2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K), but it was his first MLB action since last May 1st -- Montgomery's last start before Tommy John surgery was the game Gary Sanchez made Ken Giles punch himself in the face -- and it was cool to see Montgomery make it all the way back following that long and grueling rehab. He looked like Jordan Montgomery too. The stuff was the same as before surgery and he threw all four pitches (four-seamer, two-seamer, curveball, changeup). He also looked like a guy just back from Tommy John surgery, meaning his location wasn't good at all. Control is the last thing to come back following elbow reconstruction and that was evident Sunday. Montgomery left a few too many pitches in the happy zone:

I don't expect much from post-Tommy John surgery Montgomery the rest of the way and I think it would take a series of injuries to get him on the ALDS roster -- maybe he becomes an option in the ALCS or World Series, but I think even that is a stretch -- but it's good he's back and will be able to have a normal offseason. Imagine spending all that time rehabbing and not getting back to the big leagues this September, and having to wait all winter? Man, that would suck. Montgomery's first appearance back didn't go well but who cares about the results. It's one game and it's largely inconsequential given the standings. He's healthy, that's the most important thing, and Montgomery got those "first game back" jitters out of the way and will be in position to win a rotation spot in Spring Training. "Excited to get out there after I put in all the hard work to get back. It’s been my goal just to get back out there, and to be back at the Major League level," Montgomery told Pete Caldera following his 2019 debut.

5. Sabathia in the bullpen. Last week I said I don't think the Yankees consider CC Sabathia an option to start in the postseason, and, sure enough, Aaron Boone told George King the team will try Sabathia in relief before the regular season ends. "I would expect potentially a different role moving forward in the final week or so in the season, when you could see him out of the pen a little bit. His situation will probably be a little bit fluid," Boone said. Makes sense. First and foremost, I don't think Sabathia's knee can hold up for 80+ pitches at this point, so starting may no longer be physically possible. Secondly, his numbers the second time through the lineup are pretty bad this season, nevermind the third time:

• First time: .240/.309/.456 (108 OPS+)
• Second time: .253/.320/.544 (119 OPS+)
• Third time: .342/.398/.618 (152 OPS+)

And third, Sabathia is still effective against left-handed hitters and can be useful in matchup situations. He's held same-side hitters to a .198 AVG and a .266 OBP with a 25.0% strikeout rate this year, and that's pretty darn good. Tommy Kahnle is Boone's go-to reliever against lefties in high-leverage spots -- Kahnle and his changeup have held lefties to a .194 AVG and a .250 OBP with a 39.7% strikeout rate this season -- and I don't expect that to change in October. Sabathia would be behind Kahnle as a second lefty matchup option for the early innings (or deep in extra innings), assuming Zack Britton stays married to the eighth inning. Ultimately, we're talking about the final postseason bullpen spot here and, realistically, that spot will come down to Sabathia, Luis Cessa, Cory Gearrin, or maybe Jonathan Loaisiga. I don't think Nestor Cortes, Ben Heller, Tyler Lyons, Jordan Montgomery, or Stephen Tarpley are serious candidates for the postseason roster at this point. (Cortes has been awful lately anyway. Yesterday's disaster makes it 21 runs in his last 22.1 innings with a .305/.383/.537 opponent's batting line.) Sabathia has a useful skill in his ability to neutralize lefties -- a skill the Yankees can leverage in October -- and you know he won't scare in a big moment. That's not nothing. Carrying him in the postseason bullpen is perfectly reasonable. Sabathia has made one relief appearance in his 19-year career (1.1 innings in 2011 ALDS Game 5), so using him out of the bullpen once or twice not only makes sense, it feels like a necessity to help him get comfortable with it. Sounds like the Yankees are planning to do exactly that later this month.

6. Wade's options. Since coming back up, Tyler Wade is 8-for-26 (.308) at the plate with his usual blazing speed, and he's looked mostly fine defensively when thrust into the outfield. I've long been a Wade fan (the only Wade fan?), so it's nice to see him have a little big league success, even in a small sample as a part-time player. Anyway, I bring this up because it turns out Wade has a minor league option for next season. All year long I've been incorrectly saying he will be out of options next season, which would obviously have 40-man roster and organizational depth ramifications. When you're out of options, you have to pass through waivers to go to the minors, and a 24-year-old with Wade's speed and glove probably doesn't clear waivers. The Tigers or Orioles or some team like that would stick him at short full-time and see what happens. It turns out Wade did not burn an option in 2017, as I had been assuming. Here's the math, with an assist to the transactions log on Wade's MLB.com page:

• June 27th: Selected to MLB roster (added to 40-man for first time) 
• July 15th: Optioned to Triple-A
• July 23rd: Recalled from Triple-A (Starlin Castro injury allowed recall before 10 days)
• Aug. 25th: Optioned to Triple-A
• Sept. 4th: Recalled from Triple-A

Players have to spend 20 days on an optional assignment (i.e. on the 40-man roster and in the minors) to burn an option. It doesn't have to be 20 consecutive days. It just has to add up to 20 days. Wade was added to the 40-man for the first time in June, so all that time in Triple-A from April through the call-up doesn't count as an optional assignment. He was a regular ol' non-40-man roster minor leaguer. July 15th to July 23rd is eight days, then Aug. 25th to Sept. 4th is another 10 days, giving him 18 total days in the minors in 2017, short of the 20 required to burn an option. Wade did not burn an option in 2017. He used an option last year and this year, and still has his third and final option remaining for next year. That's bad news for Wade and good news for the Yankees. It means the Yankees can easily stash a speedy and versatile player in Triple-A for another season. For Wade, he presumably wants to stick in the big leagues next year, either with the Yankees or another team if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster. Being out-of-options would have forced the team's hand. Instead, Wade can -- and likely will -- go to Triple-A to and again serve as an up-and-down depth guy.

7. Minor league awards. The minor league regular season and postseason are finally over. Double-A Trenton won the Eastern League championship late last week, their fourth ever title (2007, 2008, 2013, 2019), which means Major League rehabbers like Dellin Betances, Jordan Montgomery, and Luis Severino could wind up with two rings this year (Double-A and MLB). Pretty cool. Anyway, each year around this time I ran a minor league awards post at RAB, and it's worth doing again here. As a reminder, this is not a top prospects list. It's an acknowledgement of the players who had the best seasons regardless of prospect status. Let's get to it.

Minor League Player of the Year: OF Canaan Smith

The 2017 fourth round pick authored a .307/.405/.465 (154 wRC+) batting line with 11 home runs and 32 doubles despite being nearly two years younger than the average Low-A South Atlantic League player. He led the system in walks (74), times on base (214), OBP (min. 300 PA), and was third in total bases (209) behind two guys who played with the juiced ball in Triple-A (Ryan McBroom and Trey Amburgey). Sally League managers voted Smith the most exciting prospect in the circuit, according to Baseball America, and I'm naming him the best player in the system in 2019.

Minor League Pitcher of the Year: RHP Miguel Yajure

Deivi Garcia is the club's top prospect but Yajure outpitched him this season, and it's not all that close either. Yajure led the system in innings (138.2) -- he allowed 10 fewer runs and four fewer baserunners than Garcia despite throwing 27.1 more innings -- and, among the 436 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in the minors this year, he ranked ninth in ERA (2.16) and 11th in FIP (2.65). The 23.9% strikeout rate isn't eye-popping, but it's plenty good enough, and Yajure was the best pitcher in the system this year.

Minor League Hitter of the Year: 1B Chris Gittens

After injuries limited him to 127 games from 2017-18, Gittens stayed mostly healthy this season, and he responded by being named Eastern League MVP. The 2014 12th rounder hit .281/.393/.500 (164 wRC+) with 23 homers this year. That 164 wRC+ led the system (min. 300 PA), and the 23 homers were six more than any other player in the organization who didn't spent time in Triple-A. Gittens put up juiced ball numbers without playing with the juiced ball. (For the sake of variety, I've always disqualifying the Player of the Year from the Hitter and Pitcher of the Year awards.)

Breakout Player of the Year: RHP Luis Gil

The Yankees acquired Gil from the Twins in the Jake Cave trade last spring and he made the jump from live-armed lottery ticket to bona fide prospect this year. Gil threw 96 innings this season, almost all with Low-A Charleston, and he posted a 2.72 ERA (2.66 FIP) with a 30.2% strikeout rate, and he did that while trimming his walk rate from 15.4% last year to 11.6% this year. He was second in the system in ERA (behind Yajure), FIP (behind Yajure), and strikeout rate (behind Garcia). Gil is now firmly among the top prospects in the system. (Deivi won this award last year. Would be kinda weird to name a guy a breakout player two years in a row.)

Comeback Player of the Year: RHP Clarke Schmidt

This is always a tough one. I was leaning toward Gittens initially, but Schmidt is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and I think that's worthy of the award even though this was his first full non-rehab season and not a traditional "played a full year(s), got hurt, came back and played another full year" comeback season. Schmidt cleaned up his delivery and threw 90.2 innings with a 3.47 ERA (2.68 FIP) and a 27.2% strikeout rate this year. Also, he was great during Double-A Trenton's title run (10.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 13 K in the postseason).

Best Pro Debut: SS Josh Smith

Smith, this year's second round pick, signed two days before the signing deadline and got a late start on his pro career. He still hit .324/.450/.477 (177 wRC+) with three home runs and more walks (25) than strikeouts (17) in 33 games with Short Season Staten Island. Ninth rounder 1B Spencer Henson (163 wRC+ and six homers in 24 games) and 15th rounder LHP Edgar Barclay (2.08 ERA and 2.39 FIP with 26.1% strikeouts in 26 innings) deserve an honorable mention.

Bounceback Player of the Year (started poorly, finished strong): RHP Luis Medina

The overall numbers are unpleasant (5.27 ERA and 4.43 FIP with 14.9% walks), but man did Medina finish the year strong. His first 14 starts: 8.38 ERA (6.33 FIP) with 22.0% strikeouts and 18.9% walks in 48 innings. His final eight starts: 1.77 ERA (2.02 FIP) with 35.2% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 45.2 innings. Medina's stuff is electric. Best stuff in the system, in my opinion. Please let those final eight starts be real. Please please please.

Most Disappointing Player of the Year: OF Estevan Florial

Not a good year for the preseason consensus No. 1 prospect. Florial broke his wrist (in two places) crashing into the wall in Spring Training, then proceeded to hit .237/.297/.383 (101 wRC+) with a career high strikeout rate (32.6%) and a career low walk rate (8.0%) in 74 games with High-A Tampa. Yes, of course the wrist injury could've contributed to the poor year at the plate. We're still waiting for Florial to have that big breakout year though. I was hoping this would be it.

Lifetime Achievement Award: LHP Dan Camarena

I was a big Camarena fan when the Yankees gave him a $335,000 bonus as their 20th round pick in 2011. Lefty with four distinct pitches and good command? Sign me up. Injuries took their toll, however, and Camarena's stuff backed up a bit over the years. He became a minor league free agent the last two offseasons and spent time elsewhere, but eventually made his way back to the Yankees. The career timeline:

• 2011-17: Yankees
• 2018: Yankees, then Giants after being released in May
• 2019: Twins, then back with Yankees after being released in April

In 761.2 career minor league innings, Camarena owns a 4.29 ERA (4.10 FIP), and he's been a solid innings guy in Triple-A the last few seasons. The Yankees added Camarena to the 40-man roster and called him up as an emergency long man in July, though he spent only one day on the big league roster and didn't get into a game. At least he gets affordable health care for life. Camarena was released in August when the Yankees needed 40-man space. Don't be surprised if he's back as a Triple-A depth arm at some point next year.

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