September 13th, 2019: Injuries, ALDS roster, Severino, Montgomery, Encarnacion, Voit, LeMahieu, Mailbag

The Yankees swept their sixth doubleheader of the season yesterday and are 13-1 in 14 doubleheader games this year. They are the first team to sweep six doubleheaders in one season since the Pirates and Ken Singleton's Orioles in 1979. Pretty incredible. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as I point out the Yankees can clinch the AL East title between now and the next post (the magic number is five).

1. More injuries. This is getting ridiculous. It really is. The Yankees managed to win two games yesterday while losing three players to injury. Edwin Encarnacion (oblique), J.A. Happ (biceps), and Gary Sanchez (groin) left yesterday's doubleheader with injuries and were sent back to New York for tests. Happ pitched with biceps tendinitis the last few starts and said he's had a similar issue in the past and was able to manage it, which I guess is good news. Everyone seems optimistic that Encarnacion's oblique injury is minor, but oblique injuries are never really minor, and they tend to linger and are easy to re-aggravate. As for Sanchez, he apparently hurt himself on that stupid and pointless stolen base attempt in the night game. Aaron Boone said the steal attempt was his idea -- "It was a stolen base attempt. I opened him up there with them not holding him on," Boone told Bryan Hoch -- which sounds like a manager protecting his player. No matter. Whoever's idea it was, it was dumb, especially since it was kinda sorta raining and Sanchez has had groin problems the last two years. Gary said the tightness in his groin felt the same as his injury earlier this year, when he missed 17 days. How many days are left in the regular season? 16. Missing the rest of the regular season and going into the postseason without a rehab assignment would really stink, but that might be the best case scenario at this point. The Yankees have placed 30 different players on the injured list this year, a new MLB record, and they've used the injured list 38 times. My unofficial count has 27 of those 38 injured list stints for new soft tissue issues. That is entirely too many. There's a point where it goes from "we're having bad luck with injuries this year" to "what are we doing wrong that so many guys are getting hurt?" That point was in, like, June. This season has been crazy fun and the whole "next man up" thing has been remarkable, truly, but this is too much. The Yankees fired their strength and conditioning coach in May 2007 following an early season rash of hamstring injuries, and Brian Cashman said the Yankees were reviewing their medical and training staff back in June -- June! -- and things have not improved at all. Several injuries were bad luck (Encarnacion taking a pitch to the wrist) and several injuries were injury prone players getting hurt again (Greg Bird, Troy Tulowitzki, etc.), plus there's the inevitable pitcher injuries (Jonathan Holder, Jonathan Loaisiga, etc.). That stuff happens. But this is now four groin strains in two years for Sanchez, several oblique pulls (Encarnacion, Aaron Judge), and more calf strains than I remember (Sanchez in April, Cameron Maybin, Kendrys Morales, Mike Tauchman). The absolute last thing I am is an expert in training and conditioning, but this injury stuff has persisted all year and you can't help but question why. After six months of this, it's not unreasonable to question the team's training programs and routines. Something isn't working the way it is intended. "I keep saying it’s going to make for a good World Series DVD. I mean, there’s nothing we can do but just keep going. That’s what we’ve done all year. We'll continue to do that," CC Sabathia told Erik Boland following yesterday's doubleheader sweep.

2. Projected postseason roster. Three weeks from today the Yankees will host Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. Mathematically, there is still a chance they slip and wind up the road team in the ALDS -- the Twins are six back in the loss column -- but chances are they will be the home team. With that in mind, let's look at the possible ALDS roster, shall we? Here is my current ALDS roster projection:

I am being optimistic about Happ's and Sanchez's injuries. I am not especially optimistic about Encarnacion though. Nothing against him, it's just that obliques tend to be a big headache. Hopefully today's tests bring good news. Mike Tauchman (calf) and Aaron Hicks (elbow) are both done for the season -- Hicks was told to rest a few more weeks when he got a second opinion earlier this week, according to Joel Sherman and Dan Martin -- which clarifies the outfield situation. I'm making a leap and assuming Giancarlo Stanton will not only return before the end of the season, but that he'll return as an outfielder. If he's limited to DH duty, that'll complicate things. We'll worry about that when the time comes. For now, I'm assuming outfield. The Tauchman injury opens up a bench spot for Wade, who would give the Yankees a top notch pinch-running option. The Yankees had five infielders (Gregorius, LeMahieu, Torres, Urshela, Voit) for four spots before the Encarnacion injury, so that took care of itself. Funny how that works. I have Estrada as the final bench player over Clint Frazier and Mike Ford because the Yankees don't play Frazier unless they are forced into it, and Ford doesn't offer any versatility. It's not like he's going to pinch-hit for anyone in the starting lineup, you know? Paxton and Tanaka are the only two guys I'm comfortable projecting as postseason starting pitchers right now. I don't think the Yankees consider Sabathia an option to start -- he has held lefties to a .198 AVG and .266 OBP with a 25.0% strikeout rate this year, so he's a solid left-on-left matchup option -- and he's cool with that. "It doesn't matter. Whatever my role is in the postseason, in the bullpen or starting or whatever, I am good for it," Sabathia told Randy Miller earlier this week. I think Severino is likely to start in the postseason, but using him as a 2-3 inning reliever isn't out of the question either. The Yankees are preparing German for a possible postseason bullpen role and I honestly don't know who they would start in his place. It can't be Happ, can it? I know he had back-to-back good starts recently, but yesterday's dud against the Tigers was a reminder Bad Happ is still in there. My guess right now is Paxton starts Game 1 and Severino starts Game 2, that way the Yankees can really lean on their bullpen behind Severino knowing the next day is an off-day. That leaves Tanaka for Game 3, and I bet the Yankees go with a quasi-bullpen game in Game 4, with German getting the bulk of the innings over Happ. Long story short, that's my current postseason roster projection. Kyle Higashioka would be the obvious replacement should Sanchez be unable to go, and if Stanton can't go, it would open the door for Frazier (or Ford). If a pitcher gets hurt between now and then, I'd bet on Cory Gearrin getting the nod. We'll revisit this next Friday (and the Friday after that), once the Yankees suffer another round of injuries (probably).

3. Severino in October. Yesterday afternoon Aaron Boone announced Luis Severino will rejoin the Yankees and start Tuesday's homestand opener. Based on that, this looks like a reasonable pitching schedule:

• Tuesday, Sept. 17th vs. Angels (on five days rest)
• Sunday, Sept. 22nd vs. Blue Jays (on normal rest)
• Saturday, Sept. 28th at Rangers (on five days rest)

That would line Severino up to start ALDS Game 1 with an extra day of rest. The Yankees could also start him Sunday, Sept. 29th, with two extra days of rest, then start him in ALDS Game 2 with one extra day of rest. There's some built-in flexibility and that's important when you're talking about a guy who missed this much time. The most important thing is there's enough time for Severino to make three Major League starts before the postseason. Hooray for that. "I’ve been talking awhile that he’s been in a pretty good place physically now for a couple months, building good momentum, and his progression has gone really smooth. Hopefully that allows him to continue to build up and find that consistency. He could be a game-changer guy for us, no question," Boone told Dan Martin yesterday. Now that Severino is thisclose to returning, I've been thinking about his postseason role, and since the Yankees have openly discussed using an opener and starters as relievers and whatnot, is there a chance they do something like this in the ALDS?

• Game 1: Severino with a 60-70 pitch limit
• Game 2: James Paxton
• Game 3: Masahiro Tanaka
• Game 4: Severino on three days rest
• Game 5: Paxton on normal rest

That allows the Yankees to avoid a fourth starter in the ALDS and allows both Severino and Paxton to pitch twice in a potential five-game series, ostensibly increasing their chances of winning the damn thing. It looks like Severino will have enough time to get stretched out to 90-ish pitches before October, but we don't know that for sure, and it is entirely possible his effectiveness will wane after his first 70 pitches or so given the nature of his season-long injury and the lack of a proper Spring Training. In that case, limiting him to 60-70 pitches would make sense. The Yankees certainly have the bullpen to make it work. I don't think the Yankees would or should start Severino on short rest after the injuries this year, but it is an option. Using him as a 2-3 inning reliever in Games 1, 3, and 5 is another possibility. Two innings, two days rest, two innings, two days rest, then another two innings. Again, I don't think the Yankees would use Severino that aggressively after all he's been through this year, but these are options available to them. Like I said in the previous point, my guess is Paxton and Severino start Games 1 and 2, respectively, with a bullpen game in a potential Game 4. Built-in off-days then allow them to start either Paxton (on extra rest) or Severino (on normal rest) in Game 5 if it comes to that. For a while there I expected Severino to return as a reliever because I wasn't sure he would have enough time to get stretched all the way out. Now that it looks like it'll happen, using him as a starter is clearly the way to go. The Yankees are more than fine in innings 6-9. It's innings 1-5 that are a potential problem. (Of course, we could see the bullpen much earlier than the sixth inning in October, if necessary.)

4. Montgomery's return. Earlier this week Aaron Boone told Lindsey Adler that Jordan Montgomery will join the Yankees soon. In fact, he might even start Sunday's bullpen game in Toronto. Montgomery started for Double-A Trenton on Tuesday, so Sunday would be the earliest he is available to pitch anyway. The Yankees will wait until then -- or maybe even wait until the homestand begins Tuesday if they don't need him Sunday (Monday's an off-day) -- to activate him and make a 40-man roster move. Either way, Montgomery is coming back soon, that's pretty cool. Unlike Luis Severino and Dellin Betances, who the Yankees are clearly treating as postseason options, Boone has said repeatedly the Yankees are treating Montgomery's rehab as more of a big picture situation. They are focused on preparing him for next season and won't push him and his new elbow ligament these next few weeks in an effort to be what, the last guy in the bullpen in October? It's not worth it. Montgomery has pitched well enough in four rehab starts (9.2 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 11 K) but it is 9.2 innings. Not even 10 full rehab innings following Tommy John surgery. It's difficult for me to believe that's enough time to get up to speed following elbow reconstruction. I don't see Montgomery contributing in a meaningful way down the stretch or in October, and that's not meant as a knock on him. It's an acknowledgement of how hard it is and how long it takes to come all the way back from Tommy John surgery. Still, bringing Montgomery back and making a 40-man roster move is worthwhile. Tommy John surgery rehab is grueling -- it was extra tough for Montgomery, who had relatively minor setbacks over the winter (elbow soreness) and in June (shoulder discomfort) -- and it can be lonely, and bringing Montgomery back to the big leagues is a reward for a job well done. The same applies to Ben Heller. They might not help you win games down the stretch or in October, but giving these guys some positive reinforcement and letting them know they're in the plans has a real impact. Montgomery (and Heller) can go into the winter feeling good that he's made it all the way back to the big leagues, and prepare accordingly for Spring Training. He's waited long enough to get back. Making him wait even longer until next spring is needless. Reward him for the work he's put in and get him back with his teammates, and into a game or two. He'll appreciate it after being away so long.

5. Re-signing Encarnacion. I am in favor of re-signing Edwin Encarnacion. I didn't expect to wind up here when the Yankees first acquired him, but here I am. Encarnacion is hitting .244/.344/.531 (129 wRC+) with 34 home runs in 109 games this season -- it's .249/.325/.531 (121 wRC+) with 13 homers in 44 games with the Yankees (is it really only 13 homers? feels like more) -- plus he still draws a lot of walks (11.9%) without striking out excessively (21.2%), and he sees a ton of pitches (4.42 per plate appearances). Encarnacion is a pro's pro at the plate. He really grinds out at-bats. I know the Yankees love his professionalism and the way he's fit into the clubhouse, and there's value to that. We all hope Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar (and Greg Bird) come back well next year, but you can't really count on it, and besides, there is no such thing as too many good players. We've all seen what's happened this year, right? It can go from too many players for too few spots to too few players for too many spots in a hurry. Encarnacion turns 37 in January and there's always a chance he goes all 2014 Alfonso Soriano on you next year and gets old in an offseason. That's the risk. If it happens, you deal with it. I still like the idea of bringing Encarnacion back and making the offense as deep as possible. The Yankees hold a $20M club option for Encarnacion for next season, and since there's a $5M buyout, it is effectively a $15M decision. Nelson Cruz signed a one-year deal worth $14M last winter, so maybe Encarnacion's option is a fair price. Then again, how robust will the market be for a soon-to-be 37-year-old DH? Realistically, Encarnacion's market will be limited to the 15 American League teams, several of which straight up aren't trying and won't spend big money. Does one year and $8M work instead? Maybe the Yankees could bump it up to one year and $10M, with the last $2M coming in the form of a buyout for a 2021 club option. Encarnacion has banked over $100M in his career and I gotta think a chance to win a World Series (he's never won one) will be his priority this winter, not maximizing his contract, and the Yankees will give him as good a chance to win the World Series next year as any team. (Then again, they might win the World Series this year, would could prompt Encarnacion to seek out the best contract in free agency, or even retire a la Carlos Beltran with the 2017 Astros.) To be clear, I don't think it's likely the Yankees re-sign Encarnacion with Andujar, Bird, Stanton & Co. due back. I think it would have to be a sweetheart deal situation for them. That $8M or $10M or whatever is money they'll need to add pitching and (possibly) re-sign Didi Gregorius and/or Dellin Betances, among other things. The Yankees don't really need another DH, and if it gets to the point where they need to add one (like this year), there will be trade opportunities at midseason. Always are for DH types. Encarnacion has been such a great fit though -- remember when we all wondered how the playing time would be doled out immediately after the trade? -- and I'd be cool with bringing back next season if there's a way that makes sense.

6. Voit's power. I kid you not, I started writing about Luke Voit's diminished power about 30 seconds before he hit that mammoth home run to center field yesterday afternoon. Prior to that, Voit had not gone deep since July 23rd in Minnesota -- he had a 16-game home run drought -- and he had only two homers in his previous 38 games. The sports hernia first popped up in London, and Voit's power slipped after that. Understandably, I think, given the nature of the injury. The good news is Voit's hard-hit rate -- that is his percentage of batted balls with a 95 mph exit velocity or better -- has been ticking up recently:

That's an indication Voit is starting to regain his power or timing or both. That was not a cheap home run he hit yesterday and he also doubled deep into the right field corner later in the game. (It would've been a homer in the Bronx.) With Giancarlo Stanton's status still up in the air and Edwin Encarnacion and Gary Sanchez getting hurt yesterday, the Yankees are suddenly kinda short on middle of the order bats. Before the big game yesterday afternoon and the Encarnacion and Sanchez injuries, I was thinking Voit might find himself on the bench in the postseason so the Yankees could play their other four infielders (Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela). Now? Now the Yankees need Voit to get all the way back up to speed at the plate in case Encarnacion, Sanchez, and Stanton don't make it back in time for October. Yesterday's long homer and long double were encouraging. Hopefully they were an indication Voit's power is starting to return following the sports hernia-related hiatus. "It had been a while (since my last homer). It’s been since July. So it felt good to get that back. Let’s keep the ball rolling. I had a couple more hits that I hit the ball hard. Usually when I hit the ball hard, good things happen, so that’s good," Voit told Kristie Ackert yesterday.

7. Batting race. DJ LeMahieu is in a bit of a slump -- he is 7-for-36 (.194) in his last eight games -- which is annoying but not worrisome. His strikeout rate hasn't jumped in those eight games (17.9%) and the exit velocity hasn't completely cratered (88.0 mph). Just a good hitter in a rut. It happens and he'll snap out of it soon enough. I bring this up only because LeMahieu is starting to lag in the batting title race. Here is the American League leaderboard:

1. Tim Anderson: .331
2. DJ LeMahieu: .325
3. Michael Brantley: .321
4. Hanser Alberto: .318 (?!?)
5. Rafael Devers: .314

No player in baseball history has won a batting title in both leagues. Never happened. Not once. LeMahieu won a batting title with the Rockies a few years back (.348 in 2016) and led the league in hitting much of this year, so he has a legitimate chance to be the first guy to do it, and that would be cool as hell. This recent skid combined with Anderson's recent hot streak (.385 in his last 34 games) has moved LeMahieu into relatively distant second place in the batting race though. He's still within reach, for sure, and we've seen how hot he can get, so the batting title race is far from over. The Yankees have not had a batting champ since Bernie Williams in 1998 and they haven't had anyone finish in the top five of the batting race since Derek Jeter in 2012. LeMahieu should at least do the latter this year. Hopefully he goes on one of his molten hot streaks soon and wins the batting title, and becomes the first player ever to win it in both leagues. That would be rad.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Bob asks: You have always been a big supporter of Gleyber Torres and he just keeps getting better. Is it time to consider a Derek Jeter type contract of say 10 years/$200 million? Would he accept it?

Jeter signed his massive 10-year, $189M extension in February 2001, one year before he was scheduled to become a free agent. Historically, players who sign extensions one year prior to free agency get paid like free agents, and that was certainly the case with Jeter.

Torres can't become a free agent until after the 2024 season, so he doesn't have nearly as much leverage as Jeter did when he signed his deal. Here are the largest contracts signed at Gleyber's service time level (between 1-2 years):

1. Andrelton Simmons: Seven years and $58M
2. Christian Yelich: Seven years and $49.75M with one club option
3. Ryan Braun: Seven years and $45M
4. Anthony Rizzo: Seven years and $41M with two club options

I'd give Torres the Simmons deal (or especially the Yelich deal) right now with no questions asked. Simmons signed his extension five years ago though, so inflation has to be considered, as does the fact Gleyber has been a much more productive hitter through this point of their careers. Andrelton is a historically great defender, but offense pays better.

Ten years and $200M is pretty rich given where Torres is in his career. I think seven years and $72M with a club option is more appropriate given the contract benchmarks at his service time level. It could break down like so:

• 2020: $1M salary and $2M signing bonus (final pre-arbitration year)
• 2021: $3M (first arbitration year as Super Two)
• 2022: $6M (second arbitration year as Super Two)
• 2023: $9M (third arbitration year as Super Two)
• 2024: $12M (final arbitration year as Super Two)
• 2025: $17M (first free agent year)
• 2026: $20M (second free agent year)
• 2027: $22M club option with $2M buyout (third free agent year)

Manny Machado will bank approximately $77.5M during the same seven-year chunk of his career (final five years of team control plus two free agent years), though he wasn't a Super Two. Maybe that means seven years and $72M for Torres is low considering he has two All-Star Game selections, might hit 40 homers this year, and is a Super Two. It adds up.

Torres has more than lived up to the hype since being called up last year -- and there was a lot of hype when he was prospect -- and he seems to be only getting better. A player who produces this much offensively and can play the two middle infield positions is insanely valuable. I don't know what the contract is, but I am all for signing Gleyber long-term.

(I'd bet against the Yankees extending Torres this winter. Next season his luxury tax hit will be in the six figures. Give him seven years and $72M, and his luxury tax hit jumps to $10.3M next year, and that would complicate things in the Steinbrenner Austerity Era.)

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Eric asks: Mike, given Hicks might need TJ surgery do you think this means Gardy is definitely coming back and will they trade for a center fielder or sign a FA to play center in the offseason? 

I thought Brett Gardner was coming back next season no matter what happened with Aaron Hicks. Now that Hicks might need Tommy John surgery -- no doctor has told him he needs it yet, but it is still a possibility -- bringing Gardner back is even more of a no-brainer. He'd provide outfield depth and a stopgap center field option.

Gardner turned 36 last month and he's hitting a serviceable .244/.321/.484 (109 wRC+) with a career high 23 home runs. The juiced ball helps, absolutely, but he's continued to produce and hasn't worn down. I was worried playing so much center field -- Gardner's 84 games in center are by far his most since 2013 (138) -- would wear him down, but it hasn't happened.

Hopefully Hicks avoids surgery and will be a full player come Spring Training. If not, Gardner is an obvious stopgap option. He's still productive and he's beloved in the clubhouse, plus he'll come on a cheap one-year contract. If the Yankees do trade for a center fielder, I expect it would be another Mike Tauchman type, not a bigger name.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Matt asks (short version): So who's the backup center fielder now that Hicks is done for the year? Should they activate Terrance Gore?

Aaron Boone has mentioned Cameron Maybin and Tyler Wade as candidates to play center field whenever Brett Gardner needs a rest. Maybin played 50 games in center last year and, given where the Yankees are in the standings, I think he'll be a perfectly acceptable fill-in down the stretch. Maybin playing 3-4 games in center shouldn't disrupt much.

Triple-A Scranton's season ended last week and the Yankees did not call up Gore, probably because 40-man roster space is tight. Gore is fast as hell but he's surprisingly mediocre in the field. His routes are inexact and he can't throw. Running him out there in center field a few times probably isn't worth the 40-man move when you have Maybin and even Wade.

Now, if Gardner were to get injured, my Plan A in center would be Aaron Judge. He played one game in center last year, and among the team's available outfielders (Gore, Maybin, Wade, Clint Frazier), I think Judge is the best defender, so put him in center. My guess is the Yankees would use Maybin in center if Gardner gets hurt. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)