September 6th, 2019: Gary & Gleyber, Awards, Hicks & Stanton, Giles, Triple-A Homers, Mailbag

Despite losing the first game in each series, the Yankees took two of three from the Athletics and Rangers on the homestand. They are 18-3-3 in 24 home series this year and all three series losses were in April. The opponents? The Orioles, Tigers, and White Sox. Three teams that are a combined 120 games under .500. Go figure. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as the Yankees head to Boston for four five-hour games.

1. The Gary and Gleyber homer race. Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres are currently tied for the team lead with 34 home runs apiece, and they are very aware of it. The other night Torres said Sanchez was busting his chops because he hit two homers and took over the team lead. "Last night Gary hit two and he passed me. I said, 'Give me a chance because today is my day off. I'll play tomorrow and for sure I'll catch him,'" Gleyber joked following Wednesday's game (video link). Sure enough, he hit a homer Wednesday to tie Sanchez for the team lead. These two are doing historic things. First of all, Sanchez's 34 homers are the franchise record for a catcher. He broke his own record set two years ago. Here is the club's single-season home run leaderboard among catchers:

1. 2019 Gary Sanchez: 34 and counting
2. 2017 Gary Sanchez: 33
3. 1952 Yogi Berra: 30
4. 1956 Yogi Berra: 30
5. 2003 Jorge Posada: 30

No other catcher in Yankees history has hit as many as 30 home runs in a season, if you can believe that. Sanchez missed all that time with the calf and groin injuries and still managed to break his own record. Also, even with the missed time, Gary still has a chance to become only the sixth different catcher in history to hit 40 homers in a season. Johnny Bench did it twice, Mike Piazza did it twice, and Roy Campanella, Todd Hundley, and Javy Lopez did it once each. That's it. Sanchez needs six homers in the team's final 21 games to become only the sixth catcher ever to hit 40 homers in a season. It's doable. As for Torres, middle infielders this young aren't supposed to hit for this much power. Here is the all-time single season home run leaderboard among middle infielders age 22 or younger:

1. 1998 Alex Rodriguez: 42 (age 22)
2. 1996 Alex Rodriguez: 36 (age 20)
3. 2019 Gleyber Torres: 34 and counting (age 22)
4. 2016 Rougned Odor: 33 (age 22)
5. 1983 Cal Ripken Jr.: 27 (age 22)

Gleyber leads all middle infielders in home runs this season regardless of age (Xander Bogaerts is second with 31) and he has a chance to hit 40 homers. Brian Dozier hit 42 homers as a second baseman in 2016. A-Rod had several 40-homer seasons as a shortstop. Before him, you have to go back to Ryne Sandberg in 1990 for the last middle infielder to hit 40 homers. What Torres is doing is quite rare, especially at such a young age. And yes, I know the ball is juiced, but you can only play in the environment you're presented. Four times the Yankees have had two players hit 40 homers in a single season and three of the four were Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig (1927, 1930, 1931). The other pair? Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle in 1961, of course. Gary and Gleyber have a chance to join that exclusive club this season. How fun. "Oh yeah. (Thirty home runs is) the goal. I've got to keep chasing (Gary) and Gleyber. I've got to find out what they're eating over there. They're not sharing with me," Aaron Judge jokingly told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. 

2. Awards races. There are three weeks and three days remaining in the regular season. In addition to all the postseason races, the various awards races will be decided during that time. The Yankees have the best record in baseball and of course they have candidates for the major awards. Let's break down their candidates award-by-award (we can revisit this at some point before the announcements).

• MVP: DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres

Mike Trout should win MVP (again) this year. I mean, the guy is hitting .293/.439/.647 (180 wRC+) with 45 home runs and he leads all players with +8.7 WAR. He is on another level. And really, the only MVP argument you can make against Trout and for LeMahieu is built around their teammates. LeMahieu has better teammates than Trout and thus his production came for a contending team, whereas Trout's teammates aren't good and they're well out of it. I don't buy it, but you know some MVP voters will. LeMahieu is New York's best MVP candidate but Torres isn't too far behind him. Gio Urshela might've been in this conversation had he not gotten hurt. He might not get to 500 plate appearances this year (414 currently) and I can't see a player receiving significant MVP support with that little playing time. I think LeMahieu is in the second tier behind Trout, alongside Xander Bogaerts, Alex Bregman, and Matt Chapman. Torres is in the third tier with Rafael Devers, Carlos Santana, Marcus Semien, and George Springer. I expect LeMahieu to finish in the top three with Trout and Bregman (in whatever order) and would be stunned if he finished lower than fifth in the voting. Gleyber should finish in the 8-12 range of the voting. Urshela, Gary Sanchez, and even Aaron Judge will probably grab a down-ballot vote or two. If LeMahieu does manage to win MVP, he'd be the first Yankee to win the award since Alex Rodriguez in 2007.

• Cy Young: None
• Rookie of the Year: None

The Yankees don't have a serious candidate for Cy Young or Rookie of the Year. Domingo German has been their best starter this year and he is 44th among American League pitchers with +1.8 WAR. (Adam Ottavino leads the pitching staff with +2.4 WAR.) The Cy Young ballot runs five players deep and I don't expect a single Yankee to receive a vote. Not even one little fifth place vote. I'd say Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are current Cy Young frontrunners. As for Rookie of the Year, no, Mike Tauchman is not eligible. The league confirmed it. "He spent more than 45 days on Colorado’s 25-man roster in 2017 and 2018 combined. His at-bats were under the threshold but the service time was over," MLB told Bryan Hoch. Even if Tauchman were Rookie of the Year eligible, he still wouldn't win it. Yordan Alvarez has this locked down and should win unanimously. Maybe Tauchman would've received second or third place votes, but that's it. The Rookie of the Year ballot runs three players deep and no Yankee will receive a vote. Who's their best rookie anyway? Nestor Cortes? Yeah, exactly. The Yankees' streak of having a top two finisher in the Rookie of the Year voting will end at three years this season (Gary Sanchez runner-up in 2016, Aaron Judge winner in 2017, Miguel Andujar runner-up in 2018).

• Manager of the Year: Aaron Boone

The Manager of the Year award is essentially the "manager of the team that most exceeded expectations" award, and the Yankees came into the year as AL East favorites if not World Series favorites, so that would seem to disqualify Boone. The injuries changed the calculus though. The Yankees have placed 29 different players on the injured list this season, a new MLB record, and they've lost roughly 35% more man games to injury than any other team. They aren't minor injuries either. The Yankees have received zero innings from their top starting pitcher and top setup man. The 2017 NL MVP has played nine games. The 2017 AL MVP runner-up missed two months. The starting shortstop and starting center fielder have both missed significant time. The Yankees still have the best record in baseball despite all that. I think that puts Boone in the lead for Manager of the Year. I think that's how voters will see it. Boone's biggest competition is probably Rocco Baldelli because the Twins were not expected to be this good. That said, Minnesota blew an 11.5-game lead at one point -- they were 11.5 games up on June 2nd and tied for first place on August 9th -- and can you really give the Manager of the Year award to a manager whose team did that? Minnesota is going to win the AL Central anyway, but still. Athletics manager Bob Melvin and Rays manager Kevin Cash are the other obvious Manager of the Year contenders. I think it comes down to Boone and Baldelli, and the players lost to injury (both quantity and quality) push Boone over the hump. Joe Torre (1996 and 1998) and Buck Showalter (1994) are the only Yankees managers to be named Manager of the Year.

• Comeback Player of the Year: Gary Sanchez (?)

Comeback Player of the Year can be a difficult one. For example, is Lucas Giolito having a comeback season, or is he simply a young player breaking out? In Sanchez's case, did he establish himself enough from 2016-17 for 2019 to be considered a comeback year, or is he a young player who had what amounts to a sophomore slump? I dunno. Oftentimes the Comeback Player of the Year award will go to someone coming back from a major injury. Matt Harvey won the year after Tommy John surgery, for example. There is no one who fits that description in the American League this year though. Beyond Sanchez, the best Comeback Player of the Year candidates are, uh, Jake Odorizzi and George Springer? Odorizzi was pretty bad last year. Springer wasn't bad, but he didn't perform like his usual self. Maybe I'm missing someone obvious, but, given the competition, I think there's a very real chance Sanchez will win Comeback Player of the Year, especially if he gets to 40 home runs. He'd be the third Yankee to win the award, joining Jason Giambi (2005) and Mariano Rivera (2013).

UPDATE: Like the idiot I am, I forgot Hunter Pence. He has to be considered the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.

• Reliever of the Year: Aroldis Chapman

The Reliever of the Year award -- I'm sorry, the Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year and Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year awards (why not just go with Mariano Rivera Award for both leagues like the Cy Young? get outta here with acting like Hoffman was Mo's equal) -- skews heavily toward closers, as you'd expect. In fact, Josh Hader last year was the first non-closer to win the award, and that was only because he was so outrageously dominant it was impossible to ignore. Chapman currently leads the American League in saves and is third among all relievers in WAR. He's been as good as anyone this year. That said, Liam Hendriks is having an incredible season with the A's. He leads all relievers in WAR and all American League relievers in strikeouts. I think he'd win the award if the season ended today, and it wouldn't be undeserved. You can't rule out the league leader in saves though. Not with this award's history. Andrew Miller was named Reliever of the Year with the Yankees in 2015.

3. Hicks and Stanton progress. I feel like the postseason outfield situation isn't getting enough attention. Maybe that's my fault. I should start a blog or something. Anyway, Mike Tauchman has crashed back to Earth these last few weeks (.194/.276/.224 in his last 20 games) and yet he remains in the lineup every single day because Cameron Maybin has a wrist problem and because the Yankees seem to have zero interest in playing Clint Frazier. I don't want Tauchman in the postseason lineup. Nice guy, had a hell of a run a few weeks ago, but no thanks. Aaron Hicks (elbow) and Giancarlo Stanton (knee) have resumed baseball activities and are the obvious candidates to step into that outfield spot. Stanton seems to be closer than Hicks. He's in Tampa now and will get simulated at-bats this weekend, and if Triple-A Scranton or Double-A Trenton makes a deep postseason run, Giancarlo could go out on an official minor league rehab assignment. Hicks resumed throwing a few days ago but has not yet started hitting, so he's still a ways away. There's only 21 games remaining this season! Time is running out on those guys. Aaron Boone said the other day that the Yankees see Stanton as an outfielder -- "I see him hopefully as part of the outfield mix," Boone told Dan Martin -- and not limited to DH, as it should be. The best possible lineup includes Stanton and Edwin Encarnacion and Luke Voit, and there's only one way to get all three in the lineup. Stanton has to play the outfield. In a perfect world, Hicks and Stanton both return in the near future and get enough at-bats to find their timing at the plate before October. My hope is at least one of those guys makes it all the way back before the postseason. That would push Tauchman to the bench (or off the postseason roster?) and give an already dangerous offense a lift. There's not much season remaining though. For all the talk about next man up and all that, going into the postseason with a Tauchman in left field (or a Tauchman/Maybin platoon in left field) is a very real possibility. More of a possibility than I would like.

4. Giles non-trade. Earlier this week Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) reported the Yankees and Blue Jays made "significant progress" on a Ken Giles trade at the deadline. Toronto would have received three prospects in the deal. Rosenthal says things got so far down the road that the Blue Jays told interested clubs Giles was going elsewhere. Obviously the trade didn't happen, probably due to his ongoing elbow issues. Giles has been lights out this season (2.05 ERA and 2.10 FIP with 41.2% strikeouts), but he's been battling a nagging elbow issue for weeks now, and right before the trade deadline he received a cortisone shot. As I understand it, the problem has been bouncing back more than pitching. Giles has no trouble when he's on the mound, but he needs a few days off after each appearance. That's ... inconvenient. Rosenthal says the Yankees backed out of the deal too late for Toronto to spin Giles elsewhere. The non-trade is interesting for a few reasons. One, Giles is under control next season as an arbitration-eligible player, so the Yankees weren't only thinking about this year. Giles would've given them some protection in case Aroldis Chapman opts out and/or Dellin Betances doesn't return (or get healthy). Two, the Yankees presumably tried to buy low on a talented player again, something they've done quite well in recent years. A healthy Giles would've been very in-demand at the deadline. He wasn't healthy though, and the fact no other team made a good enough offer to catch Toronto's attention suggests his market was limited. The Yankees tried to capitalize on the thin market. Three, who were the three prospects? I have no idea and I reckon we never will. I suspect they were second tier prospects rather than the Deivi Garcias or Luis Gils of the farm system. Nick Nelson would've made sense as part of the package to clear out some of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft clutter. I know who wasn't part of that three-player package: Domingo Acevedo. The Blue Jays would've claimed him on release waivers if they had interest in him. Instead, Acevedo cleared waivers last month and re-signed with the Yankees on a minor league contract. Four, things might've been a bit awkward between Giles and Gary Sanchez, huh? There was the ALCS double and the whole "punch himself in the face" thing. My guess is it would've been a non-issue. Is there really a rivalry? It's just a hitter getting the best of a pitcher a few times. Chances are any Sanchez-Giles beef would've been manufactured by the media and fans. And five, no, I don't think the Yankees did this -- this being work on a Giles trade only to back out at the last minute -- to "get back" at the Blue Jays for requesting Deivi Garcia in Marcus Stroman trade talks, or for trading Stroman elsewhere. I've seen that conspiracy theory floating around. No one actually thinks the Yankees devoted time and resources to get revenge on a rival team, do they? Trade targets sometimes get traded elsewhere and other teams want your top prospect. That's baseball. Giles will undoubtedly wind up back on the trade block this winter or next summer. The Yankees have already tried to get him once. I wouldn't be surprised if they try again in the future.

5. Triple-A dingers. The minor league regular season is finally over -- Triple-A Scranton won a bonkers tiebreaker game Tuesday to win the division -- so we can now see how the MLB baseball changed things. The MLB ball was used in Triple-A this year. Not in any of the lower levels. Here are the home run rates for each of the Yankees four full season leagues:

Kinda weird homers went down in Double-A, High-A, and Low-A. I think that might be typical year-to-year fluctuation though because the HR/PA rates are similar. Triple-A though? Good gravy. There was a tangible change to the game and home runs increase substantially as a direct result. (Homers increased 58% in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.) Remember all those questions about how guys like Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres and others could come up and immediately hit for more power in the big leagues than they did in the minors? Yeah, it's the ball, not so much all that other stuff (better scouting reports, etc.). I've seen it reported that the MLB ball will be used at all minor league levels next season, though I'm not sure that's true. I trust J.J. Cooper implicitly on this stuff. Here's what he said last month:

There are two reasons why the MLB ball isn’t used everywhere in the minors. Cost is the main reason. But even if MLB and MiLB wanted to have everyone use MLB balls and were willing to pay for it, it wouldn’t matter. MLB balls are effectively handmade and use the best leather Rawlings can buy. It took Rawlings an offseason of work to build up the workforce and the supply chain to double the amount of MLB balls it made. In an interview with Baseball America before the season, a Rawlings spokesperson said that Rawlings could potentially scale up operations to produce enough baseballs for another classification for 2020 if MLB and MiLB so desired. 

That doesn't sound like the MLB ball at all levels (or even one additional level) is a done deal. Either way, the switch to the MLB baseball had a huge impact in Triple-A this year. The International League as a whole hit .252/.320/.389 last season. This year it jumped to .266/.342/.445. That has to complicate player evaluation a bit. Given the insane home run rates this year -- there are three weeks to go in the season and the Twins already broke the all-time homer record the Yankees set last year -- I do wonder whether MLB will scale back on the baseball this winter. Commissioner Rob Manfred and his cronies insist any changes to the ball were not intentional. Even if you buy that -- offense was way down in 2013-14 and I think MLB looked for way to increase offense to create more excitement, but what do I know -- going back in the other direction to reduce homers would have to be intentional. And if that happens, what does it mean for a guy like J.A. Happ, who can't keep a mistake in the ballpark? Wouldn't that make him a more viable starter next year? Too bad we'll have to wait until next season to see whether the ball changes again. Once we learned the MLB ball would be used in Triple-A this season, I assumed home runs would go up quite a bit. I did not think they would go up this much. That is insane and I can't help but wonder what the true talent power level is for a guy like Gleyber. Maybe he's only a 20-25 homer guy with a normal baseball? Pretty weird this is even question.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Jonathan asks: In regards to pure WAR and value, who is more valuable, Andujar or Urshela? I don't think we can assume Urshela will be a well above average hitter, it's possible but not likely. But let's say he's an ok 105 wRC+ player with great defense. Is that more valuable then let's say 125 wRC+ put up by Andujar with below average defense? Is there a system which can evaluate this on an analytical basis?

Weirdly, the defensive metrics don't like Gio Urshela this year. He's at -3 DRS and -3.1 UZR, mostly because of errors. Urshela has made 13 errors in 853.2 defensive innings, or one every 65.7 innings. Last year Miguel Andujar made 15 errors in 1,169.1 defensive innings, or one every 78.0 innings. Errors are dumb, but they're why Gio doesn't rate well in the field.

Andujar put up a 128 wRC+ in 606 plate appearances last year, which works out to 94 wRC, or weighted runs created. (wRC+ compares wRC to the league average.) A 105 wRC+ hitter in Yankee Stadium would put up approximately 81 wRC in 600 plate appearances. That's our hypothetical Urshela in Jonathan's question.

Based on that, Urshela would have to make up roughly 13 runs (94 minus 81) on defense and on the bases to be Andujar's equal. Of course, Andujar might be a true talent -13 run defender (or worse) himself, so Urshela wouldn't have to do much to be more valuable. That's the very simple and straightforward way of looking at it.

Unlike Mike Tauchman, Urshela has the contact quality data to back up his offensive performance. Do I expect him to hit .331/.370/.555 long-term? No, but there are reasons to believe he can give you Andujar level production going forward. And in that case, Urshela is clearly the more valuable player given the difference in their gloves.

What happens with Urshela and Andujar next season? Who knows. We can tackle that in the offseason. I am pretty bummed Andujar missed the season though. I would've loved to have seen what he could do with the rabbit baseball and a year of MLB experience under his belt. Would 40 homers been possible?

“I’m not worried about that,” Andujar told Brendan Kuty earlier this week when asked about his future with the team in the wake of Urshela's breakout. “I’m focused on what I’m doing now and keep doing what I was doing before I got hurt once I get the opportunity.” 

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Ben asks (short version): In your most recent post, you mentioned how someone like Loaisiga could be a bullpen piece. With Garcia looking like a long shot, what about Ben Heller? Great AAA numbers and the Yanks like him. Can't go 2+ innings but I feel like you could do worse than him for the 6th bullpen spot in the postseason.

I'm a Ben Heller fan and I have to think we'll see him at some point this month. It seems the Yankees will have him stick with Triple-A Scranton (and Double-A Trenton?) through the end of the minor league postseason to make sure he gets regular work following Tommy John surgery. That's the smart move. Heller is still a rehabbing player.

Because he's not in the big leagues right now, I don't think the Yankees consider Heller a serious postseason roster candidate. He might only get 4-5 innings to showcase himself after coming up, and that's not much to go on. The Yankees aren't going to make a decision as important as a postseason bullpen spot on a sample like that.

The setback -- Heller missed about a month with forearm discomfort a few weeks ago -- pretty much ended any chance he had at pitching in October. It slowed his rehab and will limit his time at the MLB level. Like I said, I like Heller, but I don't think he'll have enough time to show he is postseason roster spot worthy before the season ends.

Bonus Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Ray asks: Fans will get excited about Mike Ford because he’s done a nice job. But isn’t he just Tyler Austin from the left side?

That's not entirely fair but it's not too far away from reality either. Ford is a left-handed hitter and thus on the heavy side of the platoon, which is not insignificant. Also, Austin strikes out a heck of a lot more than Ford. Their career Triple-A numbers:

• Austin: 10.0 BB% and 26.9 K% in 934 plate appearances
• Ford: 11.6 BB% and 16.1 K% in 874 plate appearances

In his brief big league career, Ford has struck out 21 times in 133 plate appearances, or 15.8%. Austin has a 37.2% strikeout rate in the show (559 plate appearances). Ford is a first base only guy while Austin can fake the outfield, though neither brings much to the table defensively. Baserunning? Forget it. Neither helps there.

Each player serves a purpose. Austin can mash lefties and Ford can pop dingers into the short porch. Austin is on the short end of the platoon stick and that makes it more difficult for him to stick around, especially when he's so limited defensively. I don't think Ford is the next great Yankees first baseman or anything, but with the righty hitting Luke Voit locked in at first base, Ford fits the current team better than Austin.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)