September 3rd, 2019: Homefield, Loaisiga, Betances, Encarnacion, Sabathia, Sept. Call-Ups, Minor Trades, Postseason Opponents

The no shutout streak is dead. Long live the no shutout streak. The Yankees were shut out yesterday for the first time since June 30th of last year. They scored a run in 220 straight games, the second longest streak in history behind the 1931-33 Yankees (308 games). It was fun while it lasted. Now here are today's thoughts as the Yankees send Clint Frazier back to Triple-A to clear a roster spot for Edwin Encarnacion even though rosters are expanded (I kid, I kid).

1. Homefield advantage. At the moment the Yankees are 90-47, tied with the Astros for the best record in baseball and a half-game up on the Dodgers. Because Houston won the season series, they would have homefield advantage in the postseason over the Yankees. Clearly though, the Yankees are not prioritizing the best record and homefield advantage. They used Jonathan Loaisiga and Ryan Dull in tie games over the weekend and that's as good an indication as we'll get that the usual late-inning relievers will not be pushed to secure MLB's best record. I mean, Aaron Boone even admitted as much recently. "No way I’m going to run these guys into the ground down the stretch. We haven’t pitched them three days in a row. Nothing more than three of four. There may be value to doing that once to see how they bounce back, but I’ll strike that balance. We’ll stay disciplined. If a guy is down, he’s down. It served us well all year," Boone told Ken Rosenthal last week. He added, "I want the home field," just not if it they have to push their relievers hard these next few weeks to get it. This is a difficult balancing act. The Yankees have been better at home (.699 winning percentage and +87 run differential) than on the road (.591 and +65), plus Yankee Stadium is an intimidating place to play in October, so I think the Yankees at home will be very dangerous in the postseason. That said, the Yankees are still really freaking good on the road, plus what good is homefield advantage if you go into October with tired players? I know it still stings that the Yankees lost Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS on the road -- the home team won every game that series -- but that was two years ago and it has no bearing on what happens this year. (Also, the Yankees won ALDS Game 5 on the road against a great Indians team that year, which always seems to be overlooked.) To me, if you have to pick between the two, you obviously take fresh relievers in October over homefield advantage. The Yankees are built around their bullpen and will need those guys at their best to make a deep run. I do really want homefield advantage though. October baseball in the Bronx is second to none. I doesn't have to be an either/or though. With any luck, the Yankees will be able to rest their bullpen arms and lock down MLB's best record. Would be cool.

2. Auditioning Loaisiga. When the Yankees brought Jonathan Loaisiga into the sixth inning of a tie game Saturday, I thought it meant he was auditioning for a postseason roster spot. Then Ryan Dull pitched in the seventh inning of a scoreless game the next day and Nestor Cortes pitched down two runs yesterday, and it became a little more clear the Yankees are resting their top relievers and not auditioning guys. That said, I would like to see Loaisiga get regular work this month and get a chance to pitch his way on to the postseason roster. David Hale is done for the season (more on him in a bit) and we don't know what Dellin Betances will be able to contribute (more on him in a bit too), plus who knows what's up with Jonathan Holder and Stephen Tarpley. That sixth reliever spot behind Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, and Adam Ottavino is wide open. Loaisiga faced the middle of the Athletics lineup Saturday and although he loaded the bases, he threw a scoreless inning. Also, his fastball velocity was near 99 mph. Look at this:

If nothing else, that velocity uptick is a great sign after Loaisiga missed three months with a shoulder injury earlier this year. In short bursts, he could really be something. The stuff is so good and he's fearless on the mound. Loaisiga's command isn't great and he struggles to turn a lineup over, plus there's the long injury history, but he doesn't rattle easily. That last part is not nothing when a guy is ostensibly auditioning for a postseason roster spot. I know we were all hoping Deivi Garcia would get this chance to audition for a postseason spot in September (more on him later) and he still might, but Loaisiga is as good a candidate for the job as anyone in the organization. Hopefully he stays healthy and aces whatever the Yankees throw at him this month, and sets himself up to have a permanent role with the team either in October or next year. 

3. Dellin's rehab. Dellin Betances has faced hitters three times now -- he threw 22 pitches in his most recent simulated game Saturday -- and he will do so again later today at Yankee Stadium. The minor league regular season ended yesterday and the postseason begins tomorrow. It sure seems like Betances is all set up to throw a simulated game today, pitch in a minor league rehab (postseason) game Thursday or Friday, and then possibly do it again Sunday or early next week should Triple-A Scranton or Double-A Trenton stay alive. (The RailRiders are playing a win or go home division tiebreaker game today.) If they don't, well, his rehab will have to continue in big league games. The Yankees won't have any other choice. Betances has a history of starting slow in terms of velocity and, relative to his Spring Training routine, he is about where he would be in early-March right now. Not ideal! That's where the Yankees and Betances are at though. "The more I pitch, the better I’ll feel. The biggest thing is recovery and I’ve been recovering pretty good. That’s what I’m paying attention to," Betances told Dan Martin over the weekend. Getting vintage Dellin back in a week or so and deepening an already strong bullpen is the best case scenario. I certainly would not call it the most likely scenario though. Not after such a long shoulder-related layoff. Betances usually out-stuffs hitters. If the stuff is compromised at all, either because of the shoulder or because he hasn't been built up properly, I don't know how effective he can be. Fingers crossed though. Dellin is an all-time fave and I hope he gets to contribute down the stretch. I can't imagine missing the entire season has been easy.

4. Encarnacion's rehab. All the attention was on Luis Severino and understandably so, but Edwin Encarnacion also started a minor league rehab assignment Sunday. In fact, Encarnacion managed to start and finish a rehab assignment since my last post. He went 1-for-4 with a hit-by-pitch as the DH on Sunday and 0-for-4 at first base Monday. Encarnacion will rejoin the Yankees today. "I feel good. I feel healthy. I feel 100%. Ready to go," he told Conor Foley yesterday. Not gonna lie, I am pleasantly surprised Encarnacion is back so soon. After the Aaron Judge fiasco last year, it was easy to assume Encarnacion would be out longer than the initial 3-5 week timetable. Instead, here he is rejoining the team four weeks and three days after being placed on the injured list. This is a good reminder no two injuries are the same. Judge and Encarnacion both had a pitch fracture their right wrist, but it wasn't necessarily the same bone, the same type of fracture, or the same severity. Judge spent seven weeks on the shelf and needed a good 40-50 plate appearances to look like himself at the plate after that. Encarnacion completed a rehab assignment four weeks out from his injury, and we'll see how many plate appearances he needs to get back to normal at the plate. The Yankees don't have a set DH right now -- they've started five different players at DH in the last five games -- and that's fine in the short-term. Long-term though, I want a big bat at the DH spot -- come postseason time, it's the best possible lineup every single day -- and we know Encarnacion can be that guy. Giancarlo Stanton has resumed baseball activities but doesn't seem particularly close to returning, and the longer he's out, the less likely it is he will be at 100% come October. That makes Encarnacion that much more important. I really thought this injury would be a season-ender. I'm glad he's feeling good and set to rejoin the team today. All things considered, this is the best case scenario for Encarnacion's injury.

5. Sabathia's injury. It was obvious something was up with CC Sabathia last Friday. He was throwing 85-87 mph in the first inning, and when his velocity is down that much, it usually means the knee is acting up. Sure enough, Sabathia left the game after three innings and is now on the injured list again. He had the knee drained and received a cortisone shot over the weekend. "They wanted to take him out after the first inning and he said, ‘No, I'm not going to do that' ... That was pretty impressive," Aaron Judge told Mark Feinsand following Friday's game. The Yankees and Sabathia are in wait-and-see mode now. Wait to see how the knee responds to treatment, basically. Hopefully the knee cooperates and he can finish the season on the field with his teammates. Sabathia deserves a proper farewell game. Ideally it would be immediately followed by lifting the World Series trophy. A final regular season walk off the mound is the next best thing. Friday's game being the last time we see Sabathia on the mound would beyond suck. I hope the knee heals up quickly and allows him to contribute down the stretch and into October. "I’m not worried about it. I’ll wait until I’m healthy. Whenever that is, it is," Sabathia told George King.

6. Sept. call-ups. Rosters expanded Sunday and I thought the first round of Sept. call-ups stood out more for who wasn't called up rather than who was. First of all, the Yankees did not summon top pitching prospect Deivi Garcia. I thought they would. Garcia is a 20-year-old kid and he hasn't pitched particularly well with Triple-A Scranton (5.84 ERA and 6.05 FIP), even out of the bullpen (six runs in 4.2 innings). A few weeks ago Brian Cashman said, "We’ve got to finish his development off," and it appears the Yankees do not consider Garcia big league ready. I don't disagree with that. I thought they would be aggressive and bring Deivi up on Sept. 1st, but that is not the case. Will we see him at the end of the Triple-A postseason? Possibly. The fact Garcia is not up right now all but confirms he won't get a chance to pitch his way on to the postseason roster though. He won't have enough time to showcase himself. And that's fine, honestly. It's a bummer we don't get to see Deivi right now, but his development (and getting comfortable with the MLB baseball) is the most important thing, and the Yankees are prioritizing that over September prospect eye candy. Secondly, no Kyle Higashioka? Calling up a third catcher on Sept. 1st is a roster expansion staple. Luis Severino made his first Triple-A rehab start yesterday and I thought maybe the Yankees wanted a familiar face behind the plate in Higashioka, but he wasn't in the lineup. Erik Kratz caught Severino. Very odd. I wonder what's going on there. I mean, the Yankees faced a really good lefty (Mike Minor) yesterday and had no righty bat to pinch-hit for Tyler Wade. Kinda sucks. We'll see Higashioka eventually. Worst case scenario is at the end of the Triple-A postseason. I definitely expected him to come up sooner though. Very weird the Yankees don't want a third catcher on the roster these next few days (or weeks?). Otherwise the Sept. 1st call-ups were straightforward. Clint Frazier's call-up was long overdue and Chance Adams is the extra long reliever. With no Garcia, Ryan Dull survived the 40-man roster axe and got the call as an extra arm. Tyler Lyons was the Sept. call-up surprise and even that wasn't a huge surprise, not when he has that much MLB experience and previously spent time as a high-leverage reliever on a contending team (2016-17 Cardinals). I imagine Lyons will primarily be a left-on-left matchup guy and rely on his high-spin slider. It's too bad David Hale's season is over though. He was placed on the 10-day injured list with a back issue on July 31st, then suffered a knee injury during his rehab that required a cortisone shot. Hale was transferred to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man spot for Lyons over the weekend, so he's done. He's not eligible to be activated until after the regular season ends. (He will be postseason eligible, though it's hard to see him cracking the roster.) Hale threw 37.1 innings with a 2.89 ERA (3.30 FIP) this season and was a rock solid lower leverage multi-innings guy. I wonder if he'll survive the offseason roster crunch.

7. IFA money trades. The Yankees have finally started trading for international bonus pool money. Too late to sign Jhon Diaz, but better late than never. The Yankees announced two minor trades in recent days:

• 1B Ryan McBroom to the Royals for pool money and a player to be named later or cash.
• RHP J.P. Feyereisen to the Brewers for pool money and IF Brenny Escanio.

The Yankees originally acquired McBroom from the Blue Jays in the Rob Refsnyder trade a few years back. He hit .315/.402/.574 (146 wRC+) with 26 homers while repeating Triple-A this season and I thought Kansas City would bring him up when rosters expanded Sunday (their first base situation is awful), but it didn't happen. He's still in Triple-A. The Yankees have Luke Voit entrenched at first base and, at worst, Mike Ford looks like a solid up-and-down platoon bat. Plus that Greg Bird guy is still hanging around. McBroom was as blocked as it gets and the Yankees turned him into bonus pool money. As for Feyereisen, he was the fourth piece in the Andrew Miller trade, and he threw 61.1 innings with a 2.49 ERA (3.34 FIP) and high strikeout (38.1%) and walk (12.6%) rates with Triple-A Scranton this year. (He had a 23.4% strikeout rate from 2017-18.) This is a clear case of the Yankees trading a guy they weren't planning to add to the 40-man roster this winter. Feyereisen was passed over in the last two Rule 5 Drafts but I wouldn't have counted on it happening a third time given the season he just had. If nothing else, Escanio is interesting because he's a 16-year-old kid the Brewers signed as an international free agent in July. He hasn't even played a professional game yet. (Teams have to wait six months to trade a player after he signs his first pro contract, but that only applies to drafted players, not international players for some reason.) Escanio was not on any top international prospect lists and I can't find a scouting report (here's some video), but clearly, he's someone the Yankees wanted to sign this summer but couldn't sign for whatever reason. Now they get him in a trade. Feyereisen and especially McBroom had no real long-term future with the Yankees, so they cashed them in as trade chips rather than potentially lose them for nothing in the offseason. These are what bonus pool money trades usually look like. Now we'll see who the Yankees sign with that money -- the sum was undisclosed in both trades -- and what kinda player Escanio becomes.

8. Ranking postseason opponents. If the season ended today, the Yankees would play the Twins in the ALDS and the Astros would get the winner of the Wild Card Game (Indians at Rays). The season doesn't end today though. There are still three weeks and change to be played. I still want to take a second to look at the potential postseason competition, however. These are the teams I want the Yankees to play on the American League side of the postseason bracket, in order:

1. Rays
2. Athletics
3. Indians
4. Twins
5. Astros

I think the Astros are the best and most dangerous team in baseball and have pretty much all season. Their rotation is strong, the lineup is fierce, and manager A.J. Hinch knows how to manipulate his bullpen even when it appears options are short. The homer happy Twins strike me as a real bad matchup for New York's home run happy pitching staff. I know the Yankees have had Minnesota's number throughout the postseason (12-2 in 14 postseason games since 2003), but that's irrelevant. What happened in 2003 or 2009 or 2017 has no bearing on what happens in 2019. The Twins live and die with the long ball and the Yankees have been happy to serve them up this year. The Rays are paper tigers. Give 'em a little push and they crumble. I can't remember a team ever getting the benefit of the doubt as much as Tampa. It's remarkable. The A's and Indians are kinda interchangeable on my list, though they go about it different ways. Cleveland has a great rotation and a good everything else. The Athletics have a great offense and a good everything else. The Yankees struggled against the A's these last two weeks, but two series in August don't tell us anything about October. How many times have we seen a team with a great regular season head-to-head record against another team get wrecked by that team in the postseason? It happens every year. Anyway, that's how I'd rank the teams the Yankees are likely to play in the postseason, even though I know this is setting me up to look dumb. We can revisit this again throughout September since things can change (injuries, etc.).

9. Skaggs news. In case you somehow missed it, Angels lefty Tyler Skaggs was found dead at the team hotel in Texas on July 1, and an autopsy report released last week said he had two opioids and alcohol in his system at the time of his death. The report said Skaggs died when he choked on his vomit and the coroner ruled his death an accident. He was 27. Just awful. The Skaggs family released a statement last week that said an Angels employee may have been involved in Tyler's death. The relevant part:

"We are grateful for the work of the detectives in the Southlake Police Department and their ongoing investigation into the circumstances surrounding Tyler's death. We were shocked to learn that it may involve an employee of the Los Angeles Angels. We will not rest until we learn the truth about how Tyler came into possession of these narcotics, including who supplied them. To that end, we have hired attorney Rusty Hardin to assist us." 

This could be the beginning of a very serious scandal. A player is dead because he abused opioids and that makes you wonder how many other players are doing the same. Baseball is a brutal sport with a 162-game grind. The body hurts and players look for ways to ease the pain and recover quickly. It's only natural. Also, a team employee may have been involved. I don't know if that means a clubhouse attendant supplied the drugs or that Skaggs was doing it with teammates or something else entirely, but the allegation is serious, and MLB has said it will investigate. MLB has a history of sitting on the sidelines with these things. They did it in the 1980s when cocaine use was prevalent and they did it in the 1990s when steroids were (seemingly) at their peak. MLB shouldn't do that again. A player is dead and I reckon Skaggs was not the only player who's gotten his hands on oxycodone to deal with the aches and pains. I don't know how they would go about it, exactly, but MLB needs to get out in front of this and not wait until it grows into an even more serious problem. One dead player is one too many.

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