August 20th, 2019: Gardner, Paxton, Kahle, Britton, Rosenthal, Gregorius, Severino, Mercy Rule

The Yankees won their 82nd game last Friday, clinching their 27th consecutive winning season. That is the second longest such streak in history behind the 1926-64 Yankees (39 years). If this current streak goes on to match that streak, Gleyber Torres will be 34 years old when it happens. Crazy. Anyway, here are today's thoughts as banging stuff in the dugout suddenly becomes an ejectable offense.

1. Gardner's ejection. For real though, since when do players get ejected for banging stuff in the dugout? They smash water coolers, throw their gloves, spike their helmets ... this stuff happens on a daily basis around the league and never does anyone get ejected. Why? Because it's not against the rules. Nothing in the rulebook prohibits banging stuff in the dugout. And yet, Brett Gardner was ejected Saturday because he banged the dugout roof with his bat. First base umpire Phil Cuzzi went over to the dugout railing and made it clear that was the reason for the ejection.

Yes, Gardner banging his bat against the dugout roof is petulant. (Please spare me the "it's not Yankee-like" nonsense I've read in a few places.) It's also not against the rules and Cuzzi went outside his jurisdiction to punish him. Why? Because Joe Torre, MLB's Chief Baseball Officer, recently gave umpires carte blanche to eject whoever they want. Here's what Torre told Brendan Kuty after Gardner was mistakenly ejected for something Cameron Maybin said in Toronto two weeks ago: 

"But watching enough video and stuff, Gardner earned being thrown out. Maybe not that particular time but he certainly had the right to be thrown out, even though the umpire, I think there was so much carping from the dugout that he pulled the trigger on what he assumed was Gardner ... That’s all the noise he heard, was from Brett (banging on the dugout roof). Which was a little more surprising for me, because that’s not his personality.” 

First of all, that last line reveals Torre's ignorance to this whole matter, because Gardner bangs stuff all the time. I reckon he smashes more stuff in the dugout than any other Yankee. Right? It's not even close, really. Secondly, Torre just told the umpires they can eject whoever they want whenever they want. Doesn't even need to be the correct player -- again, Maybin did the talking in Toronto -- nor an ejectable offense, we'll figure out a way to justify it ("Maybe not at that particular time but he certainly had the right to be thrown out ..."). Read what crew chief Tom Hallion told a pool reporter following Saturday's game. Of course the umpire involved (Cuzzi) didn't speak to reporters, and the whole "it'll be in our report to New York, you can get the information from them" stuff is straight garbage because you can't call the commissioner's office and get the report. I mean, reporters can try, but MLB won't give it to them. There is a total lack of accountability here. Gardner was wrongfully ejected in Toronto because a rookie umpire was seemingly overwhelmed by the moment, and then he was ejected over the weekend for doing something that isn't against the rules, and the umpires don't have to worry about it because Torre and MLB have their back. What a joke. I suppose the good news is the Yankees have turned Gardner's bat banging into this year's thumbs down. Here is Aaron Judge following a hit Sunday:

"He’s one of the leaders of this team," Judge told Bryan Hoch following the game. "We do a lot of crazy things in that dugout. We’re showing support for him. He’s a leader of this stuff, so we’re supporting him with that. You’ll be seeing a lot more of that." 

2. Paxton's first innings. Is it time to pair James Paxton with an opener? After Saturday's game, he's now allowed a first inning run(s) in seven of his last eight starts and in 11 of his last 14 starts. His splits are pretty ugly!

• First inning: 11.05 ERA and .308/.375/.747 (.442 wOBA) against
• All other innings: 2.96 ERA and .257/.322/.403 (.311 wOBA) against

Going into last night's games, 67 pitchers had made at least 20 starts this year. Among those 67, Paxton has the highest first inning ERA (Steven Matz is second at 8.57) and the tenth lowest ERA thereafter. I don't think the solution is as simple as making Paxton throw more warmup pitches in the bullpen, and essentially simulate a first inning to get it out of the way. There is a mental component to this, I'm sure, and I'm sure his confidence in the first inning is wavering as well. Also, the Yankees really aren't in position to waste bullets in the bullpen like that. They need as many innings from their starters as they can get. There's also this:

Paxton throws harder as the game goes on. His fastball averages 95.1 mph in the first inning. It is 95.9 mph in the fifth inning and 96.3 mph in the sixth inning. I know it doesn't sound like a huge difference, but adding 1 mph can be significant, especially within a start when the same hitters are seeing you multiple times. How do the Yankees and Paxton unlock that velocity earlier in the game? What's the adjustment to his pregame warmup routine and/or his between-starts work? Maybe it really is as simple as throwing more warmup pitches, though there would still be mental and confidence hurdles to clear. As for the opener idea, it is at least worth considering. The question is, with an opener, does the second inning (when Paxton enters) become his first inning and his struggles simply shift to one inning later? Maybe, but at least then he wouldn't have to face the top of the lineup. Pairing Paxton with an opener wouldn't have to be permanent. They can try it, see how he likes it and how he responds, and adjust accordingly. Maybe he'll figure something out with the different warmup routine and solve his first inning woes. Would be cool. Paxton has six or seven starts remaining this year, so there's not that much time to tinker with an opener. You want to do it enough times that he gets comfortable with it, but also have enough time to adjust and go back the other way in case it doesn't work. Either way, Paxton's first inning problems have to be solved or at least curtailed. I mean, most pitchers perform worse in the first inning than later in the game -- the MLB averages are a 4.73 ERA in the first inning and a 4.52 ERA thereafter -- because the first inning is the only inning the other team's best hitters are guaranteed to bat, but Paxton's first inning problems are extreme. This has gone on a long time now and there's not much time left in the regular season to figure it out. An opener should be on the table. "I’ve been trying to get a way through it all year. I continue to do everything I can to mitigate that. I’m going after it with everything I’ve got. Things aren’t going my way for some reason," Paxton told Dan Martin when asked about his first inning troubles over the weekend.

3. Kahnle's dominance. Hot take: Tommy Kahnle has been the Yankees' most consistently dominant reliever this year. Aroldis Chapman had a rough July. Zack Britton struggles to miss bats -- not-so-fun fact: Britton has 20 walks and 18 strikeouts in his last 26.1 innings dating back to June 1st -- and Adam Ottavino walks too many and has trouble with left-handed batters. The side-by-side numbers for the big four:

Kahnle's had some home run issues -- his 1.41 HR/9 is the big four's highest by nearly a full homer-per-nine -- but, overall, he has been excellent this year, and especially over the last five or six weeks. I mean, any pitcher who strikes out more than a third of the batters he faces and gets a ground ball with more than half his balls in play is living right. Kahnle has done that this year. Even if you don't feel he's been the bullpen's most consistently dominant reliever, I think we can all agree Kahnle's been awesome this season. What a lift he's been with Dellin Betances sidelined. One thing I've noticed: Kahnle throws a ton -- a ton -- of first pitch changeups. Kahnle has faced 201 batters this year and 75 have seen a first pitch changeup, or 37.3%. The MLB average is 7.2%. Kyle Hendricks, who owns perhaps the best changeup is baseball, throws it on the first pitch only 9.2% of the time. Kahnle is an extreme outlier here, and first pitch changeups are unusual because the hitter hasn't seen the fastball yet, so that first pitch changeup isn't changing up off anything. It works for three reasons, I think. One, Kahnle's changeup moves a ton ...

... so even if the hitter reads changeup rather than fastball out of the hand, the movement still makes it difficult to hit. Two, Kahnle throws his changeup very hard. Only Noah Syndergaard (91.1 mph) has a higher average changeup velocity than Kahnle (90.7 mph) this year among the 99 pitchers who've thrown at least 200 changeups. Kahnle's first pitch changeups almost act like a first pitch sinker given the velocity and movement. And three, Kahnle sells the changeup so well. There is effort in his delivery and it looks like he's trying to throw each pitch through a brick wall. The delivery and arm action say "here comes 100 mph" and then the changeup never gets there. It's easy to expect a first pitch fastball from a hard-throwing reliever. With Kahnle, you get it less often than pretty much any other pitcher in baseball. His changeup is both a get-ahead pitch and a put-away pitch. It's remarkable. The return of 2017 Kahnle has been one of my favorite subplots of the season. He's been a beast.

4. Britton's curveball. I noted Zack Britton's recent strikeout and walk trouble in the previous point, and it seems he's started throwing more curveballs in recent weeks to compensate. It's not a huge jump in curveballs, but it is a jump:

Britton's sinker is a truly devastating pitch with big velocity and low spin (and thus more downward action). He just doesn't throw it for strikes as much as you'd like. Roughly 45% of his sinkers have been in the strike zone this year, the same as the last two years, but down from 55% during his heyday with the Orioles. Britton has used his curveball earlier in the count these last two months. Since July 1st, he's throw his curveball 12.5% of the time within the first three pitches of the at-bat. It was 8.8% prior to July 1st. Also, Britton has thrown 67% of his curveballs within the first three pitches of the at-bat since July 1st. Prior to that, it was 54%. In English, Britton is not just throwing a higher percentage of curveballs early in the at-bat, he's also throwing fewer curveballs later in the at-bat. It's not an across the board uptick in curveball usage. The increase is coming early, within the first three pitches of the at-bat. There's a chance -- a very good one, I'd say -- this is all sample size noise and not particularly meaningful. Given his strike-throwing problems with the sinker though, I do wonder whether Britton has made a conscious effort to show that curveball early, and maybe steal a few strikes by surprising the hitter, or even get weak contact when they gear up for the sinker. Even with all the walks and the lack of missed bats, Britton has been solid overall this season because his sinker is such a dominant ground ball pitch. A few more strikes would really go a long way though. If the curveball helps him accomplish that somehow, great. If not, well, time to try something else I guess.

5. Rosenthal signing. Earlier this morning Jon Heyman reported the Yankees are signing veteran righty Trevor Rosenthal to a minor league contract. The former Cardinals closer was abysmal with the Nationals and Tigers earlier this season, allowing 24 runs and 26 walks in 15.1 innings. He struck out 17. As noted last week, the Yankees have aggressively mined the scrap heap for pitching depth in August (Ryan Dull, David Hernandez, Tyler Lyons, Joe Mantiply), and the Rosenthal signing is more of the same. Rosenthal missed last season with Tommy John surgery and he is only 29, plus he was pretty darn good with St. Louis once upon a time, so squint your eyes and you can see some upside as he gets further away from elbow reconstruction. I guess the good news is Rosenthal's zone rate has increased as the season has progressed, and his average fastball velocity is north of 98 mph:

Yeah, the velocity is trending down recently, but it's still really high overall. Maybe Rosenthal was taking something off in an effort to get the ball over the plate? Either way, the Yankees are going to give him a Triple-A look. I don't have high expectations simply because Rosenthal was so bad earlier this year (so, so bad), but it's worth a shot. Pitching depth is hard to find this time of year now that trade waivers have been eliminated, so signing a guy like Rosenthal to a zero risk minor league contract is about as good as it gets. Maybe things will click and he can lighten the load on the regular late-inning relievers down the stretch in September. That'd be swell. (Now prepare for Rosenthal to get the final out in the World Series, because that's how things have been going for the 2019 Yankees.)

6. Didi's discipline. For the most part Didi Gregorius is back to where he was prior to Tommy John surgery. He's making contact, hitting for power, and playing strong defense. His .260 AVG and .460 SLG are down a tick from his 2017-18 numbers (.277 AVG and .486 SLG) but not so much that it's a red flag. One good series and Gregorius is right back to where we're used to seeing him. What is not in line with previous years is Sir Didi's on-base ability. He's sporting a .288 OBP at the moment, down from the career high he set last year (.335) and his 2017-18 average (.326). Gregorius has never been a high on-base player, but clearly, a .320-ish OBP is preferably to something in the .280s. It's possible, if not likely, Didi is still not completely comfortable at the plate following surgery and the lack of a proper Spring Training. Looking at the numbers though, it appears last year was an outlier in terms of plate discipline:

• 2016: 3.2% walks and 38.3% chase rate
• 2017: 4.4% walks and 40.9% chase rate
• 2018: 8.4% walks and 33.5% chase rate
• 2019: 4.0% walks and 40.8% chase rate

Remove intentional walks and Gregorius still had an 8.0% walk rate last year. We're not waiting for him to get back to being the player he's been his entire career. He's simply back to being the player he was prior to 2018, at least when it comes to plate discipline. Therein lies the long-term risk with Gregorius. Sign him long-term and it wouldn't take a whole lot for him to settle in as a below-average hitter, even relative to position. With a .260 AVG, he really might be a true talent .290 OBP guy. What if he slips to a .250 AVG or loses some power? Or has to move off shortstop to a position with a higher offensive standard (like third base)? I am firmly on Team Didi and I want the Yankees to re-sign him. He's young enough that sudden age-related decline isn't yet a huge concern, and he makes enough impact on both sides of the ball to be worth keeping around. As we've seen this year, there is no such thing as too many good players. Why settle for Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu on the middle infield when you can have those two plus Gregorius, and create a three-headed middle infield monster? A three-year deal covering Sir Didi's age 30-32 seasons would be ideal. Last year was likely his career year -- age 28 is usually when those things happen -- but even then there should still be enough in the tank for another few productive years. Given his history though, chances are Gregorius will be a low on-base player from here on out.

7. Severino's contract. This year's injuries mean Luis Severino has already come out ahead with his contract extension. He's guaranteed himself $40M from 2019-22. Had he won his arbitration hearing, Severino would've made $5.25M this season, and his raise next year would've been tiny after missing so much time. Tyler Chatwood, Alex Cobb, and Ivan Nova all missed most or all of their first arbitration salary season (like Severino) and received no raise the next year. None. Even if Severino comes back in September and pitches well the rest of the way, he's looking at what, maybe $6M next season? Even that feels a little generous after all this missed time. Let's call it $6M, putting him at $11.25M from 2019-20. To match his extension, he would've had to make $28.5M from 2021-22. That's awfully hard to do in arbitration, even for an ace in his final two years as a Super Two. The great Jacob deGrom was a Super Two and he was slated to make $24.4M in his final two arbitration years before his extension changed his 2019 salary. (deGrom made $7.4M in 2018 and agreed to $17M in 2019 before the extension lowered his 2019 salary to $9M.) Even in the best case scenario, meaning Severino stays perfectly healthy in 2020 and 2021, and league-wide salary inflation speeds up a bit, his best case scenario after this year is probably matching that $40M from 2019-22. And that's the everything goes right scenario. In all likelihood, Severino would not have come particularly close to matching the $40M following this season's injuries had he gone year-to-year through arbitration. Good for him. I will never ever begrudge a player for signing an early career extension and locking in that financial security, especially pitchers, and this is why. All it takes is one unfortunate year to knock down the player's salary for years to come.

8. Mercy rule. After getting blown out last Thursday, Aaron Boone was asked whether he would be in favor of a mercy rule. Automatically end the game when one team has a huge lead in the late innings. That sorta thing. Boone said he thinks "there would be a benefit" to such a rule. Here's his response to the question:

"For (Mike) Ford and some of the guys, (a position player pitching) is fun, but sitting in my chair, you worry about hurting someone ... I think there would be a benefit to that. You would probably eliminate a lot of the unwritten rules, people running or swinging. It would be like, if you get to this point after seven innings or whatever, there might be something to that and worth exploring ... Because it's not fun to have to put in a position player in that kind of situation."

The International Baseball Federation, the body that governs international competition, has a mercy rule that ends games when one team is leading by at least ten runs after seven innings, which I suppose is the template MLB could follow. I do think there is merit to a mercy rule because it would protect players, but I am not in favor of it. These are professional players and professional teams are charging fans to attend or (in several cases) watch on television. I don't agree with ending a playable game early and sending paying customers away because one team is having a bad day. If fans in attendance want to leave a blowout game early or turn off the broadcast, that's cool, but it should be their decision. I can't imagine a mercy rule would come into play often -- we'd see it what, maybe two or three times a week league-wide, if that? -- but baseball is already having trouble cultivating fans, and sending people away probably isn't a great idea. That all said, I don't think we have to worry about MLB adopting a mercy rule anytime soon. The corporations paying big money for commercials and in-stadium advertisements won't be happy with potentially losing exposure because games are being called early. As always, money will be a driving force behind this decision. I totally understand wanting to protect players and I believe MLB and the MLBPA should consider anything that makes the game safer, but I don't like the idea of a mercy rule. If the game is playable, it should be played. Don't get blown out if you don't like it. (Imagine if MLB adopts the IBF mercy rule and a team down nine in the seventh intentionally allows a run to end the game early? Oy vey.)

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