August 13th, 2019: German, Holder, Tarpley, Cessa, Urshela, Defense, Minors

I ran into some laptop trouble over the weekend (trouble as in it no longer boots up), so I've been getting by on my old backup computer. Brings back memories of the old RAB days when this was my primary laptop. It's also driving me up the wall because it's slow and clunky. Forgive me for today's post being a little shorter than usual. The new laptop is coming soon. Here are today's thoughts as Gleyber Torres hits another homer against the Orioles.

1. German's workload. At some point soon, maybe even sooner than we think, the Yankees will have to cut back on Domingo German's workload. Including his Triple-A rehab start, he's thrown 113 innings this season, so he's approaching his previous career high set two years ago (123.2 innings in 2017). “We’ll obviously start to have those conversations and go accordingly, but we haven’t really dove into those conversations about deviating from anything from the plan right now of making his next start in five days," Aaron Boone told Mollie Walker last weekend. The Yankees have suggested the month-long stint on the injured list could be a good thing because it gave German a little breather in the middle of the season, and helped them control his workload. The thing is, counting innings is overly simplistic. We can be smarter about this. Here is German's average fastball velocity by start this year:

German did not throw a fastball above 93.8 mph in his last start. Eight times he posted a higher average fastball velocity in a start earlier this season. Velocity loss is a classic sign of fatigue. Also, German's vertical release point has gradually dropped in his recent starts, which could be another sign of fatigue. The raw innings total tells us German has not yet reached his previous career high and thus should be good to go for another little while. Other indicators (velocity, release point) suggest German might be running out of gas, or at least hitting a second half dead arm phase. Either way, the Yankees are rapidly approaching the point where they have to scale back on German's workload. They have to make sure he is fresh and ready for October. My guess is the Yankees will continue to run German out there through the end of August, then cut back once rosters expand in September. Skipped starts, short starts, whatever. German is scheduled to start tonight (weather permitting) and the Yankees could limit him to one additional start this month. A possible pitching plan:

Keep in mind CC Sabathia is expected back soon -- Bryan Hoch says Sabathia will throw a bullpen session today, and if all goes well, he'll likely return during the Indians series -- and he could be plugged into those opener/bullpen days. The goal here is to cut back on German's workload and this plan limits him to two more starts in August. That would give him a nice little breather. The downside is this plan taxes everyone else. No extra rest for Masahiro Tanaka or James Paxton, plus those bullpen games do a number on the staff overall. (Guys like Nestor Cortes and Luis Cessa really wear it those days.) This plan robs Peter to pay Paul. German gets his rest -- rest I think he clearly needs before October -- but everyone else has to pick up the slack. Not ideal. Waiting until the Yankees carry a 20-man pitching staff (give or take) after rosters expand is the easiest time to scale back on German's workload. Given the velocity drop, hopefully he gets a second wind soon and can finish August strong before getting a break in September. "Now he’s up over 100 innings, but I still feel like he’s strong and feel like there’s a lot left in there. But we’ll also try to be mindful of it and smart about it as well," Boone told David Lennon two weeks ago.

2. Holder and Tarpley injuries. I know they've ridden the Scranton shuttle all year, but the Jonathan Holder (shoulder inflammation) and Stephen Tarpley (elbow impingement) injuries are significant. They are important depth arms who provide flexibility because they can go multiple innings and be shuttled in and out as necessary. I mean, the Yankees called up Joe Mantiply and Brady Lail to replace them. They're really scraping the bottom of the pitching barrel right now. Holder and Tarpley both admitted to pitching hurt for a bit before going on the injured list. "It’s bothering me. It wasn’t a one-outing thing. It got to the point we felt like we had to take care of it," Holder told George King while Tarpley told Pete Caldera his injury is "something I’ve kind of been pushing through." I hate that. I hate it but I get it. No player is 100% this time of year and pitchers pitch through aches and pains all the time, especially fringe roster guys trying to stay in the big leagues. I still hate it though. I wish these guys would speak up when their arm isn't right and get the treatment they need rather than play through it and risk a more serious injury. It is what it is though. That's the sports culture. Anyway, the Yankees will be without Holder and Tarpley for a little while, which means several things. One, they need David Hale back soon. He was rock solid as a multi-inning guy. The velocity uptick made a big difference. Hale threw a bullpen session in Toronto and I guess that means he's coming back soon? Hope so. Two, Jonathan Loaisiga becomes that much more important. With all due respect to Mantiply and Lail (who've already been sent down), Loaisiga has the stuff and ability to be a difference-maker, and they do not. Without Holder and Tarpley around as alternatives, the Yankees might not be able to ease Loaisiga into things. He could get thrown right into the fire. And three, Chance Adams has a pretty big opportunity in front of him. Holder is hurt, Tarpley is hurt, Hale is hurt ... there will be innings available to him. Adams' stock has steadily slipped the last three years and, at this point, he looks like nothing more than an up-and-down depth arm. That said, there are 29 other teams out there. If Adams pitches well, someone will want him, even if it's not the Yankees. Hopefully Holder, Tarpley, and Hale (and Loaisiga) return soon and the Yankees don't need to rely on Adams all that much. Until they do, this is as good an opportunity as Adams will get with the Yankees.

3. Cessa's success. I finally gave up on Luis Cessa earlier this year. I beat the "just give Cessa a chance he has good stuff!" drum for more than two years, then he allowed 12 runs in 5.1 innings in a five-game span in June, and I jumped off the bandwagon. It was time to move on. Sure enough, Cessa has allowed seven runs total in 27.2 innings since that disaster five-game span, and he has a 3.99 ERA (4.85 FIP) in 58.2 innings overall this season. The home run rate (1.69 HR/9) is extremely high, but the strikeout (24.2%) and walk (9.1%) rates are workable, and his 13.4% swing-and-miss rate is fourth best on the Yankees:

1. Tommy Kahnle: 17.7%
2. Jonathan Loaisiga: 15.2%
3. James Paxton: 14.5%
4. Luis Cessa: 13.4%
5. Domingo German: 13.1%
MLB Average: 11.1%

All things considered, Cessa has been serviceable at worst and solid at best as the No. 6 reliever behind Kahnle, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Adam Ottavino. He's been mostly fine when pushed into high-leverage situations (this game comes to mind) and 16 times in his 31 appearances he's thrown at least two full innings. Eight times he's thrown three full innings. I wouldn't want Cessa on the mound in a big spot in an important game, but as what amounts to the No. 1 long guy in the bullpen, he's been pretty good this year. Can't complain given his role. Whether this is enough to keep him on the roster next year and beyond, who knows. This was a make or break year for Cessa though. He's out of minor league options, so it was either show the Yankees he was worth keeping around, or go bouncing around waivers. Cessa's proven useful as an innings eating long man, and he's had to eat a lot of innings (58.2 in 31 appearances) given the state of the rotation. (I wrote this before Cessa loaded the bases with no outs yesterday afternoon and was charged with two runs, so hell yeah Axisa jinx.)

4. Urshela's power. Gio Urshela is getting better. He slugged five home runs on the road trip and has 23 extra-base hits (12 doubles and eleven homers) in 27 games since the All-Star break. Urshela had 23 extra-base hits (16 doubles and seven homers) in 73 games before the All-Star break. He has the same number of extra-base hits in 40% of the plate appearances. Wild. Not coincidentally, Urshela has started to pull the ball more often the last few weeks. His exit velocity has been strong all year, but he was mostly going the other way early on, and that's fine. That works too. Urshela did damage going to the opposite field. Now that he's pulling the ball though, the home runs are coming and the extra-base hits are piling up, and he's become a more dangerous hitter. A graph:

Most impressively, Urshela has started pulling the ball and hitting for more power without an increase in strikeouts or swings and misses. His strikeout rate by month: 13.6%, 18.2%, 15.8%, 14.7%, 15.2%. His swing-and-miss rate by month: 8.1%, 11.3%, 11.1%, 11.2%, 11.2%. That'll play. That'll play very well. Prior to this season Urshela was a pure slap hitter who made his money with his glove. Now he's launching home runs halfway up the Yankee Stadium bleachers without striking out excessively. It's pretty incredible. I mean, look where he ranks among the 213 players with at least 300 plate appearances:

• AVG: .332 (5th)
• OBP: .376 (26th)
• SLG: .587 (11th)
• wRC+: 149 (9th)

Truly remarkable. Urshela is a week or two away from having enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, and once that happens, he's going to be near the top of all the offensive leaderboards. Imagine Urshela and DJ LeMahieu battling it out for the batting title in September? That would be really cool. Either way, Urshela has been off the charts good this season and, now that he's found his power stroke, he's getting even better. What a fun story. “He’s found a way to really incorporate his lower half into his swing and look to do damage more often, early in counts especially. Credit to him also for knowing his zone a lot better, looking for pitches in his zone and not missing them when he’s getting them," assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere told Brendan Kuty late last week. 

5. Defensive trust. I floated this question a few times over the years at RAB and it's worth revisiting again this season. The hypothetical scenario: Game Seven of the World Series, one-run lead in the ninth inning, but the other team has the bases loaded with two outs. Which Yankee do you want the ball hit to? Who do you trust defensively to get that World Series clinching out? Not who has the highest DRS or the fewest errors. Who do you trust the most defensively based on the eye test and the gut feel? Excluding catchers because of the positional weirdness, I'd rank the 2019 Yankees like so:

1. Brett Gardner
2. DJ LeMahieu
3. Aaron Judge
4. Didi Gregorius
5. Gio Urshela
6. Gleyber Torres
7. Mike Tauchman
8. Aaron Hicks
9. Cameron Maybin
10. Luke Voit
11. Edwin Encarnacion

That isn't every 2019 Yankee, but it's the main dudes, and that's how that I'd rank them. Even with his 36th birthday around the corner, I trust Gardner the most to make that final out. He's still very good defensively and never seems to make a fundamental mistake. Bad route, throw to the wrong base, nothing like that. He's my guy. LeMahieu, Judge, and Gregorius are all above-average glovemen and, honestly, you could list them in any order and I wouldn't argue about it. I'd feel comfortable with the potential World Series title ball being hit to any of them. Urshela's an interesting case because he has a knack for highlight plays but is also weirdly error prone. Thirteen errors in 744.2 innings at third base this year, or 57.3 innings per error. Miguel Andujar was at 78.0 innings per error last year. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Urshela is a worse defender than Andujar. He's obviously not. It's just that the odd propensity for errors knocks him down the list for me. Same with Torres, who has great defensive tools and a knack for careless errors. I know the various defensive stats say Tauchman is one of the top outfield defenders in the game this year (+12 DRS and +5.3 UZR), but I'm not sure I agree with that based on the eye test. I see a good but not truly elite defender. Small sample size defensive stats are not to be trusted. The bottom of the list is pretty self-explanatory, I think. At the end of the day, I trust Gardner the most to get that final out, with LeMahieu, Judge, and Gregorius behind him in some order. I believe those four are the Yankees' most reliable defenders, with Urshela not far behind.

6. Minor league thoughts. Baseball America (subs. req'd) released their annual Best Tools survey last week. Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil were voted the best pitching prospects in the Double-A Eastern League and Low-A South Atlantic League, respectively, so that's cool. What caught my eye was Canaan Smith being voted both the best hitting prospect and most exciting prospect in the South Atlantic League. I thought maybe it was a down year in the Sally League, but no, it's a representative year. Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez, Red Sox slugger Triston Casas, and Mets infielders Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos are playing in the Sally League this year. And yet, league managers voted Smith the best hitter and most exciting prospect in the league. Neat. Smith has hit .315/.417/.472 (159 wRC+) with 14.6% walks and 20.2% strikeouts in 106 games with Low-A Charleston this year. He was the team's fourth round pick in 2017. The young man is having a heck of a season and it is getting him noticed ... Righty and personal favorite Roansy Contreras is not having an eye-popping season statistically. The 19-year-old has a 3.77 ERA (3.79 FIP) with 18.7% strikeouts and 7.1% walks in 107.1 innings with Low-A Charleston. His 10.8% swing-and-miss rate ranks 189th among the 293 pitchers with at least 100 innings in the minors this year. Despite that, the reports on Contreras are strong. Here's what Keith Law (subs. req'd) said two weeks ago:

(Contreras is) among their better starting pitcher candidates because he has a chance to throw three above-average pitches with very good control. Contreras started for Charleston (Yankees) at Lakewood (Phillies) on Thursday and was throwing 92-95 mph, with his fastball sitting at 94 throughout his start, to go with an above-average to plus changeup at 86-88 mph that had screwball-like tailing movement. His curveball was fringy, with some two-plane break to it, at 75-76 mph, but it needs to be harder and tighter to be an above-average pitch. He seems to have the arm speed for it and the loose wrist to spin it; if he does, he could be a league-average starter. 

Since signing for $250,000 in July 2016, Contreras has drawn raves for his makeup and pitching acumen. He doesn't get rattled on the mound. I know "he could be a league-average starter" doesn't sound exciting, but a) league-average starters are valuable, and b) I think Contreras has a chance to be more than that. A 19-year-old kid with pitching know-how and a chance for three average or better pitches is an exciting prospect. Even after a statistically underwhelming season, I'm a big Roansy fan, and I'm looking forward to seeing what he does with High-A Tampa next year ... In one of my first Patreon posts, I noted infielder Hoy Jun Park was having what could be a breakout season with Double-A Trenton. Park has continued to build on that strong start and is currently hitting .280/.371/.384 (125 wRC+) with strong strikeout (19.8%) and walk (11.7%) rates through 97 games. Not much power, no, but that's not really Park's game. He's a slash-and-dash guy who gets on base and plays strong defense all over the infield. The Yankees gave Park a $1M bonus as part of the mostly failed 2014-15 international spending spree, and it looks like he might have a chance to help the Yankees at some point, even as an up-and-down utility guy. Not what you're expecting when you give a kid seven figures, I know, but Park looked like a non-factor a year ago. Now there's a chance to reach the show and actually contribute ... Pretty rough year for outfielder Antonio Cabello, my preseason No. 5 prospect. He is hitting .230/.286/.366 (76 wRC+) with 30.0% strikeouts and 6.5% walks in 44 games with Rookie Pulaski. That's after hitting .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) with 20.8% strikeouts and 14.1% walks in the Rookie Gulf Coast League last year. Cabello had shoulder surgery over the winter -- he dislocated his left (non-throwing) shoulder diving for a ball during the final week of the season last year -- so we should cut him some slack. Also, he's an 18-year-old kid in a league where the average age is close to 21. Development is not linear. Hopefully this is just a hiccup/injury recovery year for one of the most talented players in the system, and Cabello gets back on track next year.

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