August 2nd, 2019: Post-Deadline, Judge, Tanaka, Loaisiga, Frazier, Mailbag

I've tried to embrace #ZenBaseball in recent years and I'm mostly over the trade deadline inactivity. (More like trade dudline amirite?) I have no control over it so I'm not going to let me bother me anymore. Hopefully it all works out in the end. Here are today's thoughts as we get into the dog days of summer.

1. Post-deadline trades. So it turns out teams can still make trades after July 31st. Who knew? Anthony Castrovince wrote about it recently and I'll let him explain how it works:

The July 31 Deadline at the big league level could also lead to more August trades at the Minor League level. Veteran players on Minor League contracts (in other words, not on a 40-man roster) could see their values to contending clubs increase as injuries or other unforeseen circumstances develop after July 31. The key distinction is that it’s a player on a Minor League contract. There are a few players in the Minors who have Major League contracts and are not on the 40-man (think Rusney Castillo with Boston), and those guys cannot be traded. 

Players signed to true minor league contracts can still be traded. Teams can still go out and swing deals for Triple-A depth players, and then summon them to the big leagues. The deadline for postseason eligibility remains the same (11:59pm ET on August 31st), so that's something to consider, but otherwise trades can still be made. The downside is guys signed to minor league deals typically aren't very good. They're emergency pickup types. After digging through Triple-A rosters, here are some possible August minor league contract trade candidates:

• Catchers: Dioner Navarro (CLE), Tomas Telis (MIN)
• Infielders: Christian Colon (CIN), Matt Davidson (TEX), Alcides Escobar (CWS)
• Outfielders: Gregor Blanco (NYM), Ryan LaMarre (ATL), Shane Robinson (PHI)
• Righties: Parker Bridwell (LAA), Colin Rea (CHC), Ervin Santana (NYM)
• Lefties: Vidal Nuno (TB), Hector Santiago (CWS)

That's about as good as it gets on the August trade market. A few longtime big leaguers trying to hang on -- I had no idea Navarro is still playing -- and a few journeymen trying to do the same. The Yankees have Erik Kratz stashed in Triple-A, but if they were to lose another catcher to injury, they could go get Navarro in a cash deal. It wasn't easy to get a difference-maker in an August waiver deal, though it was possible. Under the current system, it is essentially impossible to get a difference-maker in a August trade. You can get warm bodies and depth players, and that's it. Also, I should note players who have been designated for assignment can not be traded in August. They can be claimed on waivers -- you get the player's entire contract if you claim him -- but he can't be traded, even for cash or a player to be named later. The Giants and Braves designated lefties Ty Blach and Luiz Gohara for assignment in recent days, respectively, and I think both are worth a waiver claim. The problem is the Yankees are so far down the waiver priority list that it's hard to see them winning the claim for either guy. So it goes. Anyway, yeah, trades are still possible after July 31st. They can only involve players signed to minor league contracts though, and those guys usually aren't all that interesting or helpful. (I say that as minor league contract trade pickup Cameron Maybin is hitting .320/.400/.500 for the Yankees.)

2. IFA money trade. The Yankees did not trade for international bonus pool money (or pitching, for that matter) prior to the trade deadline. It surprised me but I get it. As noted in the previous point, teams can still trade players signed to minor league contracts, so perhaps the Yankees are planning to move some non-40-man roster prospects for pool money in the coming weeks. Or maybe the international amateurs they have agreements with, most notably outfielder Jhon Diaz ($1.2M bonus), have given them assurances they will wait until the offseason to sign. Sounds crazy -- I know I'd want my seven-figure bonus as soon as possible -- but there is precedent. Two years ago Antonio Cabello and Raimfer Salinas reportedly agreed to wait until the 2018-19 signing period to sign, but once the Yankees lost out on Shohei Ohtani and had bonus pool money left over, they turned around and signed Cabello and Salinas in December 2017. Also, it's entirely possible the Yankees agreed to give Diaz a larger bonus as long as he waited until the winter to sign. Who knows. The international market is mysterious and shady as hell, and it's impossible to know what truly goes on down with Latin American amateurs. All I know is the Yankees more or less maxed out their $5.4M bonus pool to sign outfielder Jasson Dominguez, and they still need to add pool money to sign Diaz (and probably others). They didn't get it before the trade deadline, though I imagine there is a plan in place to get the necessary pool money soon*. We all can (and do) criticize the Yankees for certain moves. In this case, I am perfectly comfortable deferring to the team. They know what they're doing and we don't know enough about the international market as outsiders.

* The Cardinals and Diamondbacks stand out as potential trade partners for international bonus money. They're in the highest bonus pool tier ($6.5M) due to market size and neither team signed one of MLB.com's top 30 international prospects. Safe to assume they have some bonus pool money burning a hole in their pocket right now.

3. Judge's slump. Aaron Judge has gone 2-for-26 (.077) with eleven strikeouts in his last six games, dragging his overall season batting line down to a still excellent .279/.397/.489 (134 wRC+). I can not stress this enough: Judge is literally the last player on the roster I am worried about. Slumps happen. That's baseball. He'll get back to vaporizing the ball in no time. I mean, his contact quality is outrageously good (min. 100 batted balls):

Exit Velocity
1. Aaron Judge: 97.9 mph
2. Nelson Cruz: 94.2 mph

Hard-Hit Rate
1. Aaron Judge: 61.7%
2. Miguel Sano: 55.7%

“That’s baseball. That’s how it happens sometimes. Sometimes they fall, sometimes they don’t. Especially in this (Red Sox) series, you want to do well and help the team and I’m missing out on that the past couple of games," Judge told Brendan Kuty last week. He went 19-for-46 (.413) with 13 walks (.542 OBP) in the 13 games immediately prior to this six-game skid, so it's not like you have to look back far to see the last time he was massively productive. Anyway, there is one part of Judge's game I keep waiting to improve that hasn't yet: His ground ball rate. He had a 34.9% ground ball rate during his monstrous 2017 season. Last year it was 41.7%. This year? 43.3%. That's actually a bit higher than the 42.9% league average. Here's a graph:

As noted, Judge hits the ball harder than literally anyone else in baseball, and when you do that, you want to hit the ball in the air. Especially in Yankee Stadium too. Elevate and celebrate. I'm not sure why Judge's ground ball rate is on the rise. This is something that dates back to last season, as you can see in the graph. Maybe it is his sudden right field approach? Maybe he's being pitched differently? Is it related to the injuries? Chances are it's not one specific thing. It's likely a combination of many things. Whatever it is, I hope it stops soon and Judge starts getting the ball airborne more often. He's great -- truly great -- the way he is right now. Mix in a few more non-grounders though, and he'll be arguably the most devastating offensive force in baseball.

4. Tanaka's splitter. Earlier this week Masahiro Tanaka told Dan Martin he has changed his splitter grip in an effort to get the pitch working. During Wednesday's YES Network broadcast Jack Curry mentioned Tanaka and pitching coach Larry Rothschild have been working on this for two months now. Tanaka has been unable to get his trademark splitter to behave with the current MLB baseball, which is harder and has lower seams. Here is what Tanaka told Martin:

“I’ve always, up to this point, tried to stick with the grip that I’ve always used for the splitter and made small adjustments in order to get the movement that I want,’’ Tanaka told The Post through an interpreter. “You get good results and bad results and the difference between the two are so big. When it’s good, it’s really good, but when it’s bad, obviously, it’s been very bad. I thought I needed to make a different type of adjustment here. That’s the biggest reason I went to something as drastic as changing the grip.” 

This season opponents are hitting .283 with a .184 ISO and a 17.7% swing-and-miss rate against Tanaka's splitter. From 2017-18,  it was .217 with a .136 ISO and a 37.2% swing-and-miss rate. That he took a 3.20 ERA (3.81 FIP) into June is a minor miracle. It is now a 4.83 ERA (4.53 FIP) though, and it seems the book is out on the unreliable splitter. Teams are seeing Tanaka for the second and third (and fourth) time now, and the scouting report says the splitter isn't working, and they're making him pay. I apologize in advance for the imperfect comparison photos. Here is the splitter grip Tanaka used earlier this year (the photo is from May 28th, to be specific):

His fingers are right along the seams. Right along the horseshoe. They're not spread out wide on the leather on the side of the ball (that's a forkball). Pretty standard split finger fastball grip, all things considered. The difference from one pitcher to the next is finger size, finger pressure, release point, arm action, and fractions of an inch. This is the best look we got at Tanaka's new splitter grip during Wednesday's start:

Now Tanaka is gripping his splitter across the seams rather than along the seams. That's a big difference! Tanaka's splitter has not cooperated this season so he's made a pretty drastic adjustment. Changing the grip that much -- he's essentially gone from a two-seam grip to a four-seam grip -- and taking it into a game is not something pitchers do lightly. The new grip had a tangible impact on the splitter too (via Lucas Apostoleris):

• Splitter from July 5th to July 26th: 86.9 mph and 26 inches vertical drop
• Splitter on July 31st: 85.2 mph and 30 inches vertical drop

Tanaka threw 27 splitters Wednesday, the Diamondbacks swung at 16 of them, and they missed six times (37.5%). They also had two hits against the splitter. One came on an elevated split that David Peralta looped into left field, the other on a good splitter down that turned into a ground ball with eyes. Encouraging? I guess, but Tanaka still didn't get out of the fifth inning. We'll see how this goes. Point is, Tanaka's made a pretty significant change to his signature pitch, and this is something he's been working on for a while now. The sooner things click, the better, because the Yankees chose not to add pitching at the deadline, and they'll need Tanaka at his best to have a shot at doing anything in October.

5. Loaisiga's rehab. Jonathan Loaisiga started a minor league rehab assignment with Double-A Trenton earlier this week. He's been on the injured list with a shoulder strain since May 14th and he reportedly hit 97 mph with his fastball while striking out three in two scoreless innings in his first rehab game. "As far as his health, I think he looked 100% judging by the velocity and pitch usage. So hopefully this is another step in the right direction for him, and he can build his innings and get back to where he wants to be, and that is New York," Thunder manager Patrick Osborn told Sean Miller. The Yankees have said they will use Loaisiga as a reliever when he returns -- "Hopefully someone who’s a multi-inning reliever," Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty recently -- and I think that's the way to go. As talented as he is, Loaisiga really struggles once the lineup turns over -- in his brief MLB starting career, he's held hitters to a .185/.270/.296 batting line the first time through the lineup and a .283/.371/.528 line thereafter -- and he's not very pitch efficient. He can run his pitch count up in a hurry. That all points to the bullpen for me, at least for right now. The Yankees can give Loaisiga another chance to start next season. Given their current needs and the fact there's not that much time remaining in the season to stretch him out to start, the bullpen is the best way to use him. Let him air it out for two or three innings at a time and maybe he becomes another Chad Green. More likely, he'll ride the Scranton shuttle with Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Holder whenever the Yankees need a fresh bullpen arm. The important thing is Loaisiga is healthy and pitching in rehab games, so it shouldn't be too long before he becomes a big league option. "Whatever they need, I am going to be there. I just want to help the team win. However they want to use me, I am going to be able to pitch," Loaisiga told Miller.

6. Frazier's service time. As I said earlier this week (and many times in recent weeks), I want Clint Frazier on the big league roster. Especially now that Luke Voit's injury opened up DH at-bats. Give me the most talented players and give him a chance to build on the success he had earlier this year. That all said, it's worth considering the service time component to Frazier's demotion. I don't believe service time was a primary factor in the Yankees sending him to Triple-A -- remember, he was sent down when Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton got healthy, and Edwin Encarnacion came over in the trade, so there was a big roster crunch -- or keeping him in Triple-A, but it is something we should discuss. My unofficial math has Clint at one year and 134 days of service time (commonly written as 1.134). You need 172 days to receive credit for a full year of service time, and 172 minus 134 equals 38. Subtract one more day to make sure he stays under 172, and that means Frazier can spend up to 37 more days on the MLB roster this season without reaching a full year of service time. That would push his free agency back from the 2023-24 offseason to the 2024-25 offseason. Assuming a full September call-up, the earliest the Yankees could call Clint up while pushing back his free agency is August 24th. Three weeks from tomorrow. Is giving up the extra year of control worth bringing him up for an extra three weeks this year? Maybe! The Yankees do have a huge AL East lead though, and Frazier with five years of control will ostensibly have more value than Frazier with four years of control on the trade market this winter. Brian Cashman insists service time does not factor into the team's decision making -- "It’s not part of my evaluation process. We’re trying to win," he told David Lennon last year -- but come on. The Yankees absolutely manipulated Gleyber Torres' service time last season and they did it with Luis Severino too. He was down juuust long enough in 2016 to push back his free agency (Severino started this year at 2.170, so yeah). I don't believe the Yankees are keeping Frazier down for service time reasons. Delaying his free agency would be a fringe benefit more than anything. Even though calling him up now makes sense and should happen in my opinion, my hunch is Clint stays in Triple-A until rosters expand on September 1st, which would push back his free agency.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Bob asks: Is the Mike Tauchman we are seeing the real deal and, if so, what does his emergence mean for Brett Gardner? 

Let me start by saying Tauchman has been great this season. He's hitting .278/.356/.506 (126 wRC+) overall with very good defense. Getting +2.1 WAR (!) from your nominal fourth outfielder in 177 plate appearances is off the charts good. The Yankees sure do have a knack for finding unheralded bats, huh?

That all said, no, I don't think this is the real Tauchman, at least not offensively. (He's legit defensively.) First and foremost, Tauchman is running a .366 BABIP despite a 28.2% strikeout rate, and you need to hit the ball like Aaron Judge (which Tauchman doesn't) to sustain a BABIP that high with a strikeout rate that high. Some numbers:

• Exit velocity: 87.7 mph (184th among 332 players with 100 batted balls)
• Hard-hit rate: 36.1% (200th among 332 players with 100 batted balls)
• Expected AVG: .229 (.278 actual)
• Expected SLG: .378 (.506 actual)
• Expected wOBA: .305 (.366 actual)

That is ... not promising. The quality of Tauchman's contact indicates the .366 BABIP (and thus everything else) is going to crash down at some point. Maybe it won't happen until next year! That's possible. Maybe he'll cut down on the strikeouts and improve his hard-hit rates and this all becomes sustainable. That's a big ask though. Tauchman's hitting over his head at the moment.

That doesn't mean he can't be a solid reserve outfielder going forward, and hey, what's done this year is done. It's helped the Yankees win games. You can't take away that 126 wRC+ through 177 plate appearances. It's in the bank. The reality is Tauchman is a soon-to-be 29-year-old rookie who's spent parts of four seasons in Triple-A. Those guys usually have a limited shelf life. I don't think Tauchman will factor into Brett Gardner's future at all, nor should he. He's a depth player and will be planned around accordingly.

Bonus Mailbag Question of the Week

Chris asks: Given the lack of activity at the trade deadline and the Yankees propensity to offload the potential roster crunched prospects, how does 40 man roster look now and who is vulnerable to the Rule 5 draft now? 

The upcoming Rule 5 Draft crunch isn't as severe as in years past. The big 40-man roster issue right now is all the guys on the 60-day injured list. The Yankees currently have 39 players on the 40-man plus nine 60-day injured list guys (the Joe Harvey trade opened a 40-man spot). Here's a quick roster breakdown:

• Becoming a free agent (7): Dellin Betances, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Cameron Maybin, Austin Romine, CC Sabathia
• Easily removed from 40-man (3): Jake Barrett, Daniel Camarena, Breyvic Valera
• Other candidates to be removed (9): Domingo Acevedo, Chance Adams, Greg Bird, Nestor Cortes, Mike Ford, David Hale, Ben Heller, Kyle Higashioka, Tyler Wade

Even with all those 60-day injured list guys, the Yankees will be in decent 40-man roster shape after the season. Ideally they'd get something in return for Acevedo, Adams, Bird, Heller, and/or Wade rather than put them on waivers, but if push comes to shove, so be it. Doesn't look like opening 40-man spots will be too much of a headache this winter.

With an assist from Pinstriped Prospects, here are the notable prospects who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season:

• Definite adds: Estevan Florial, Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil
• On the bubble: Rony Garcia, Mike King, Brooks Kriske, Nick Nelson, Miguel Yajure
• Others eligible: Oswaldo Cabrera, Dermis Garcia, Isiah Gilliam, Brian Keller, Trevor Lane, Luis Medina, Jio Orozco

Kriske is someone I should've written about earlier. The 2016 sixth rounder had Tommy John surgery almost immediately after signing, and when he returned last summer, his fastball jumped from 91-93 mph into the 95-96 mph range. He also added a splitter this year. Kriske has a 1.88 ERA (2.79 FIP) with 31.4% strikeouts in 48 relief innings at mostly Double-A Trenton this year. He's put himself on the 40-man roster map. For sure.

I think the Yankees will add King to the 40-man roster even though the injury turned this into a lost season. He was way too good last year to leave exposed. King would be a strong candidate to go first overall in the Rule 5 Draft. Yajure is very young but also very good. His situation is similar to Jonathan Loaisiga's two years ago. Nelson's stuff is so good. His command stinks, but that fastball/curveball combo gets him noticed.

The guess here -- and I emphasize this is just a guess -- is the Yankees add King and Kriske to the 40-man roster in addition to Florial, Garcia, and Gil. That would leave Nelson exposed and the hope would be that his control issues don't allow him to stick in MLB next year, meaning he'd eventually be returned to the Yankees. 

Nelson and Yajure are guys I could see the Yankees moving in small early November trades to clear up the (relatively minor) 40-man roster logjam and force some other team to make a decision about their Rule 5 Draft status.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)