July 29th, 2019: Trade Deadline, Deivi, Gregorius, Ottavino, Paxton

Goodness, what a week. It is a minor miracle the Yankees went 3-4 on that road trip despite historically awful starting pitching. Let's pretend this past week never happened and enjoy the rest of the season, okay? Sounds good to me. Anyway, the trade deadline is Wednesday, so I figured I'd run Tuesday's post a day early in case a trade goes down and I'm inclined to post immediate reaction, and also so nothing gets lost in the shuffle. Here are this week's thoughts.

1. Stroman trade. So I guess Marcus Stroman should've specified which New York team he wanted to join when he was doing all that lobbying a few weeks ago, huh? Man, I don't get the Mets. In a vacuum, it seems like a really good trade for them, getting Stroman for two good but not consensus top 100 pitching prospects. This isn't a vacuum though, and it feels like there is another move coming, likely a Noah Syndergaard trade. Maybe they'll wise up and keep both Stroman and Syndergaard and really go for it next year, but I'm not going to hold my breath. (Also, why didn't the Blue Jays just extend Stroman? All their young bats are arriving now, but who's pitching for that team?) Since the trade news broke I've seen fans of pretty much every contender (Astros, Braves, Twins, Yankees, etc.) ask the same question: We couldn't beat that? The answer is yes, they could have, but the Blue Jays have the final call here, and they apparently like the two pitching prospects they received from the Mets more than anything else that was on the table. Shrug. I like the trade for the Mets from a pure value perspective. It's impossible to fully evaluate the deal without knowing what's coming next though. As for the Yankees, the trade creates some headaches because Stroman is no longer available and all the contenders looking for rotation help are still looking for rotation help. Stroman wound up with a non-contending team pretty much no one expected. The supply of available starting pitchers has shrunk but the demand among contenders remains the same. That's unfortunate. Stupid Mets.

2. Ideal trade deadline. The trade deadline is 4pm ET this Wednesday and I am certain the Yankees are going to do something between now and then. What, exactly? I'm not sure, but something. Last week I ranked my top starting pitching trade targets. This week I'm going to present my ideal -- realistic, but ideal -- trade deadline moves. Here's what I'd like to see the Yankees do this week now that Marcus Stroman is a non-option (reminder: my trade proposal sucks):

• Clint Frazier and Jonathan Loaisiga for Mike Minor (trade simulator)
• Domingo Acevedo for Alex Wood (trade simulator)
• Cash or a player to be named later for Ty Blach

The trade simulator site says I'm overpaying for Minor and Wood, but I'm skeptical about the site's trade values, and I don't feel like I'm actually overpaying. Frazier and a good but injury prone pitching prospect for Minor? Sign me up. The Yankees clearly have no use for Frazier -- they brought Cameron Maybin back from rehab early even though he wasn't ready to play back-to-back games rather than roll with Frazier for a few days last week -- and guys like Loaisiga should never stand in the way of adding above-average MLB help when you're a World Series contender. I'd do Frazier and Loaisiga for Minor in a second, which leads me to believe it is unrealistic, no matter what the trade simulator says. Wood made his season debut yesterday after dealing with a back injury and the results were fine: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K while on a pitch limit. His velocity was more or less where it usually is. He's a free agent after the season and the out-of-contention Reds could either keep him for another ten or so meaningless starts, or trade him for a prospect. The back injury means his trade value is pretty low. In my proposed deal, the Reds get an okay prospect even though Acevedo for Wood is something of a damaged goods for damaged goods trade. (I wrote about Acevedo's problems recently.) As for Blach, the Giants designated him for assignment over the weekend, so he'll come cheap. He's had a rough year in Triple-A (5.93 ERA and 5.25 FIP) but he can start and has a minor league option for this year and next, so he's flexible. That's a straight depth pickup on the cheap. This would be the roster situation following those three trades:

Tauchman and Higashioka go to Triple-A when Gardner and Sanchez return, respectively. What happens when Sabathia returns? Worry about it when the time comes. Remember, the Yankees sent Montgomery to Triple-A two years ago to control his workload. They could do the same this year with German rather than keep him around as a swingman with an innings limit. It would be an undeserved demotion, no doubt, but the Yankees aren't above undeserved demotions. I don't expect Betances or Severino back before rosters expand on September 1st, so their returns don't figure to force a roster move. And, if they come back sooner, great. Figure it out then. That's the plan though. Add Minor to the rotation, add Wood as a swingman type, and add Blach as a depth arm. Not the most exciting plan, I know, but I don't know what more the Yankees can do in this trade market. Minor is arguably the best starter available now that Stroman's been traded and Wood's had some pretty good years in recent seasons. You could do worse for a fifth/sixth/seventh starter type.

3. Slow-moving deadline. Last year there were 19 Major League trades (i.e. not cash deals for guys who had been designated for assignment) between July 1st and July 28th. Among the players moved were Zack Britton, Cole Hamels, Brad Hand, Manny Machado, and Mike Moustakas. Those were significant deals. This year there have been eight such trades since July 1st, with Marcus Stroman, Andrew Cashner, and Sergio Romo the headliners. Predictably, the single July 31st trade deadline has slowed the market. Everything going on in baseball these days told us everyone (buyers, sellers, free agents) is willing to wait and wait and wait to get the best possible deal, and now that there's a hard deadline to put additional pressure on negotiating partners, clubs are using it to their advantage. This is a seller's market. Unless someone jumps in with an offer you can't refuse -- I guess Toronto considered that offer for Stroman too good to pass up? -- teams with pitching to sell are probably going to take buyers right to the deadline and squeeze them as much as possible. Remember, so many of this year's top pitching trade candidates (Matt Boyd, Mike Minor, Robbie Ray, Noah Syndergaard, etc.) are under control beyond this season. Their teams don't have to move them right now. They can try again in the offseason and, while risky (injuries happen), that makes it even easier to drag this out until July 31st. Maybe I'm completely wrong (likely!) and the Stroman trade will open the pitching floodgates. There are so many contenders that need starting pitching (Astros, Athletics, Braves, Brewers, Twins, Yankees, etc.) that it's only a matter of time until the dam breaks. My guess is the Stroman trade is an outlier deal in that it's an "early" trade made between two teams that don't seem to know what they're doing, and the rest of the market doesn't really heat up until tomorrow or even Wednesday morning. The single trade deadline though, man. MLB sure knows how to suck the fun out of everything with rule changes, huh? Teams are dragging out their deadline talks and August with no trade chatter is going to redefine the dog days of summer.

4. Deivi in Triple-A. Three starts into his Triple-A career Deivi Garcia has allowed eight runs and struck out 14 in 14 innings. He's allowed three homers in those 14 innings after allowing two homers in 68.2 innings with High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton. I'm not worried about the performance at all -- it's 14 innings! he's a 20-year-old kid in Triple-A! -- but Kyle Higashioka did make some interesting comments over the weekend about Garcia adjusting to the MLB baseball in Triple-A. From George King:

“He was okay (during the start I caught him). Struggled with his command. I think he was still getting used to the ball. He’s only made a few starts. Last year it was difficult for me adjusting from the ball there to here, so that’s what guys are facing now when they go from Double-A to Triple-A. The minor league ball last year was softer on the outside and the seams were raised more. It’s easier to get a grip. With this ball, it’s tougher and you have to get used to the feel. He’s got the stuff. I can tell. I’m sure it’s just an adjustment. He’s got great stuff. He’s got a ton of confidence, which is a really good thing for him.’’

As I've said before, I want Garcia in the big leagues as he closes in on his innings limit, whatever it is. (His 82.2 innings this year are 8.2 more than the previous career high he set last season.) When a dude is running a strikeout rate near 40% in the minors and has that kinda stuff, there's no sense in wasting it in the minors, especially when there would be no 40-man roster issues. Get the most talented players and most impactful arms on the big league roster down the stretch. That's my belief. That said, Garcia's apparent issues with the MLB baseball could throw a wrench into things. He's not blessed with great command as it is, and if he continues to struggle locating with the MLB ball with the RailRaiders, perhaps the call-up plan has to be put on hold. I wouldn't sweat it too much though. I really wouldn't. You can have success out of the bullpen with bad command (see: pretty much every Yankees reliever) and I assume the Yankees would start Garcia out in lower leverage innings. If he works his way into higher leverage spots, great. If not, that's okay too. There is value in simply being in the big leagues and soaking it all in. You can learn a lot sitting on the bench or out in the bullpen. Point is, Garcia's first three Triple-A starts haven't been great and adjusting to the MLB ball is a real thing that has to happen. Hopefully it happens soon and the Yankees give Deivi a chance to strut his stuff in the Bronx down the stretch.

5. Sir Didi extension. I know there are more pressing matters at hand (the trade deadline), but I sure hope the Yankees are planning to hammer out an extension with Didi Gregorius soon. He looks better and better the further away he gets from Tommy John surgery -- Gregorius is currently hitting .282/.308/.483 (103 wRC+) and playing solid defense -- so the "how will he look after Tommy John surgery?" question has been answered. Didi turns 30 in February, so he's still in his prime, and left-handed hitting shortstops who have an impact on both sides of the ball are worth keeping around, especially when they are fan favorites. A year or two ago we were talking about the Jean Segura deal (five years and $70M) being a possible contract benchmark for Gregorius. Now, after Tommy John surgery and after the free agent market collapsed, I'm not sure he gets even half that guaranteed money. DJ LeMahieu signed his two-year, $24M contract last offseason when he was half-a-year older than Gregorius will be this offseason. Does three years and $36M work for Gregorius? Same annual salary as LeMahieu with the extra year added because he's younger? Add in a signing bonus and tack on a fourth year club option (with buyout) and the total guarantee could be something like $39M. I don't think Didi wants to leave and I don't think the Yankees want to let him go either, but who really knows. The Yankees could always commit to Gleyber Torres at short with LeMahieu at second and either Miguel Andujar or Gio Urshela at third base. That said, the more good players, the better, especially with the 26th roster spot coming next year. Gregorius is far and away the best shortstop set to hit free agency now that Xander Bogaerts has signed long-term -- the second best free agent shortstop will be, uh, Freddy Galvis? -- and man, I want as many quality middle infielders as possible. First things first. Let's get through the trade deadline and see where the Yankees stand after that. I do hope they lock up Gregorius soon though rather than wait until he becomes a free agent and other teams can drive his market.

6. Ottavino's strange season. Adam Ottavino is having a very weird season. Certainly not a bad season -- he's allowed eight earned runs in 46 innings with 64 strikeouts -- it's just a little unusual. That 1.57 ERA comes with 30 walks in 46 innings (15.2% walk rate) and lefties are hitting .224/.361/.449 (.340 wOBA) against him with nearly as many walks (11) as strikeouts (12). Before the season Ottavino said he was looking forward to getting away from Coors Field because it would mean more consistent break on his pitches, and I thought it could lead to a reduced walk rate, but instead the opposite has happened. The issues with left-handed batters are not a small sample size thing either. In three of the last four seasons lefties have hit Ottavino pretty hard:

• 2016: .346 wOBA and 1.50 K/BB
• 2017: .377 wOBA and 1.82 K/BB
• 2018: .252 wOBA and 2.14 K/BB
• 2019: .340 wOBA and 1.09 K/BB

For all intents and purposes, Ottavino is a righty specialist. He's a great righty specialist -- Ottavino has held same-side hitters to a .184/.304/.246 (.256 wOBA) batting line with a 38.2% strikeout rate -- but still a righty specialist. When there's a big lefty bat at the plate in a high-leverage situation, Tommy Kahnle or Zack Britton are the guys you want on the mound, not Ottavino. Don't mistake this for me hating on Ottavino. He's awesome and he's fun to watch. The guy's stuff is straight out of a video game. I'm just noting that Ottavino has had some walk problems this year -- they've been extreme at times -- and also trouble with left-handed hitters. Not ideal traits for a high-leverage reliever, but Ottavino has made it work so far.

7. Paxton's fastball. James Paxton has to start throwing fewer fastballs, I think. What he's doing now isn't working. His fastball location is terrible -- it's either an easy take way out of the zone or a hittable pitch out over the plate -- and it is getting clobbered:

• Paxton's four-seamer: .313 AVG and .259 ISO
• MLB average four-seamer: .268 AVG and .215 ISO

You could argue Paxton has dealt with some bad luck because he's allowed a .407 wOBA on his fastball compared to a .342 xwOBA -- the MLB average is a .356 xwOBA on four-seamers -- but I'm not sure it really matters. His fastball is getting hit hard and he's still throwing it roughly two-thirds of the time. This has gone on too long now. An adjustment has to be made. More cutters and especially more curveballs is worth a shot -- Paxton has thrown six changeups all season, so that pitch doesn't seem to be a realistic option -- because he has to start doing something to change speeds. Also, Paxton's approach to Mookie Betts last week was laughable. Look at this:

Pretty much nothing but hard stuff inside. Paxton made it very easy for Betts to sit inner half and he did huge damage as a result. There is definitely something to be said for busting hitters inside, but when you only pitch hitters inside, it makes their life that much easier. CC Sabathia has success with his cutter in on righties because he complements it with backdoor sliders and changeups away. It's great Paxton is not afraid to pitch inside with his fastball, but he needs to develop that soft away component to have more success. Given how hard his fastball has been hit this season, I'd like to see Paxton use his cutter and curveball more -- it's a 64/36 fastball/offspeed split right now, so maybe a 50/50 split would work? -- and pitch to both sides of the plate more often as well. This doesn't have to be a permanent change! Maybe he only needs a few starts to get back on track, at which point he could go back to being fastball heavy. Right now though, what he's doing isn't working, and it hasn't worked since he returned from the injured list. Hopefully the Yankees land the pitching they need before the trade deadline and are able to give Paxton some time to rest and get his knee right, because this ...

... sure as hell doesn't seem like a coincidence. The guy went on the injured list, said he still had discomfort in his knee when he returned, and he's been unable to throw strikes with his fastball since. This *circles everything about Paxton with his finger* isn't working. It's time to try something different, otherwise I don't see the results changing. "I went out there and gave it everything I had ... I thought I threw the ball pretty well, but they didn't miss pitches I made mistakes on. They were really swinging it tonight," Paxton told Bryan Hoch following his disaster in Fenway Park last week. 

8. Minor league thoughts. Slick-fielding shortstop Kyle Holder is hitting a promising .273/.333/.428 (122 wRC+) with Double-A Trenton this season. He is kinda sort repeating the level -- Holder played 32 games with the Thunder last year -- but still, for a glove-first guy with a questionable bat, it's nice to see some production. With the juiced ball, maybe he can be a league average-ish hitter? A league average bat with his glove would be a +3 WAR player. That'd be a nice depth piece (or trade chip) ... Seems like the next great Yankees late round relief prospect has emerged. Righty Keegan Curtis, who signed for $10,000 as last year's 22nd round pick, has allowed two runs with 21 strikeouts in 15.2 innings for Short Season Staten Island and Low-A Charleston this year. Here's some video. Keith Law recently gave a glowing scouting report:

Keegan Curtis, the Yankees' 22nd-round pick in 2018 out of the University of Louisiana-Monroe, threw in relief on Thursday and showed two major league pitches -- 93-94 mph fastball velocity paired with a downer curveball at 80-83 mph that he threw for strikes, even to left-handed batters. I'm not sure why they started him in extended and then short-season ball this year, but he's too good for this level. 

Curtis was a senior sign (hence the small bonus) and he turns 24 in September, so he is old for his current level, but bullpen prospects are different than starting pitchers and position players. Point is, Curtis is showing two big league pitches, and I imagine he'll be on the fast track next year ... Righty Luis Medina, arguably the prospect with the highest ceiling in the farm system, has an ugly 6.90 ERA (5.25 FIP) in 75.2 innings with Low-A Charleston this year. The good news? He's cut his walk rate from 25.0% with Rookie Pulaski last year to 16.6% this year. That's still really high! But he's walking four -- four! -- fewer batters per nine innings. Medina is going to be a long-term project, for sure, but he has a nasty three-pitch mix (high-90s fastball, high-spin curve, diving changeup) and he turned only 20 in May. The walk rate progress is promising ... In recent weeks the Yankees have lost righties Cale Coshow, Raynel Espinal, and Garrett Whitlock to Tommy John surgery. Coshow and Espinal have spent the last few years in Triple-A and the Yankees like them enough that they brought them to Spring Training as non-roster players. That's two upper level pitchers no longer available as depth. As for Whitlock, he was having a promising season with Double-A Trenton (3.07 ERA and 3.14 FIP), and because he had his surgery within the last week or so, he's likely out until 2021. That's rough. Whitlock was a possible trade chip this year and potentially a big league option next year. I ranked him as 18th best prospect in the system before the season. Pitchers, man. You need 'em, but they break.

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