July 19th, 2019: Minor, Gore, Sanchez, Chapman, Heller, Acevedo, 26th Man, Mailbag

Good series? Good series. The Yankees rebounded from their worst loss of the season Monday night with three straight wins over the Rays to open up a ten-game lead in the loss column in the AL East. They knocked Tampa out of the postseason picture too. The Indians and Athletics are currently in Wild Card position. Anyway, here are today's thoughts on the Savages in the Bronx.

1. Targeting Minor. Earlier this week Jon Morosi reported it is "increasingly likely" the Rangers will trade lefty Mike Minor before the deadline. I wrote about Minor as a trade possibility a few weeks ago and he's my preferred target, but Texas kept winning, so I gave up on him becoming available. Now that they've lost 10 of 14 and sit 4.5 games out of a postseason spot, it sounds like there's at least a chance to pry him loose. Minor doesn't want to be traded -- "I don't want to go anywhere," he told T.R. Sullivan -- but it is out of his hands. No one wants to be traded. That's the business though. Anyway, Minor is sitting on a 2.73 ERA (3.82 FIP) with 24.5% strikeouts and 43.8% ground balls through 122 innings this season, and the underlying numbers are good:

Minor is owed the balance of his $9.5M salary this year plus another $9.5M next year, so he's very affordable ($9.33M luxury tax hit). The only concern is health. Minor has an ugly injury history that includes major shoulder surgery to repair his labrum in 2015, but he's been healthy since resurfacing in 2017, which is good. Bottom line: Minor is a four-pitch guy and he's really good, he's affordable, and he's been durable the last few years. Every team in the league could use a guy like that -- worst case scenario is he has to move into the bullpen, where he was dynamite for the 2017 Royals --  and I suspect that's why the Rangers are reportedly willing to listen to offers. Some team might blow them away. I think the Yankees should be that team. There is a time to focus on maximizing value and a time to go out and get the help you need, even if you have to overpay a bit. As a World Series contender, I believe the Yankees are in the latter camp. There aren't many pitchers out there I would give up Clint Frazier or Deivi Garcia to acquire, but Minor is one of them. I'm not saying I would trade Frazier and Garcia for Minor! Just one or the other, plus secondary pieces. Winning a bidding war for a pitcher this good and this cheap won't be easy, and yes, it has a chance to blow up spectacularly given his injury history. But man, at some point you have to shoot your shot. The Yankees missed out on so many high-end starters in recent years (Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin, etc.). They can't do it again. The prospect cost might make everyone uncomfortable, but Minor is a difference-maker, and the Yankees need someone like him. I hope they don't hold back if he is truly available.

2. Gore trade. The Yankees have their late-season designated pinch-runner. Earlier this week they acquired Terrance Gore from the Royals in a cash trade after he'd been designated for assignment, and assigned him to Triple-A Scranton for the time being. Kinda mad at myself for not seeing the fit sooner and mentioning it a trade as a possibility in Tuesday's post. Alas. Gore can't hit -- his 58-plate appearance .275/.362/.353 (96 wRC+) line with Kansas City this year means nothing when the guy is a career .239/.333/.273 (78 wRC+) hitter in over 2,200 minor league plate appearances -- and he's weirdly bad on defense, but man, the guy can run. He's 45-for-55 (82%) career stealing bases at the big league level and 293-for-325 (90%) in the minors, and FanGraphs has him at +7.5 runs baserunning for his MLB career. Keep in mind Gore has been on base 86 times in his big league career between reaching base himself and pinch-running appearances. More than seven runs of value on the bases in that few times on base is bonkers. Here's the other thing: Gore has experience in that pinch-running specialist role. He did it for the Royals during their 2014-15 postseason runs and for the Cubs last year. He's not some track star the Yankees hope will be able to come off the bench cold and effectively pinch-run. He's done it very well for a championship team. The designated pinch-runner role can get overhyped -- the Yankees have a great offense and, with any luck, they won't play many close important games in September -- but in one individual game, that guy can make a world of difference. The Yankees will need to make a 40-man roster move to add Gore when rosters expand on September 1st, though that shouldn't be a problem. The Yankees made a smart move to pick him up.  Gore is the rare impact pinch-runner and he is pretty much the best possible candidate for the designated runner role.

3. Sanchez's slump. Gary Sanchez is in a 9-for-63 (.143) skid that includes a 34.3% strikeout rate and dates back 16 games to the Astros series before the All-Star break. It has dragged his overall season batting line down to a still good .244/.314/.541 (118 wRC+). I thought Sanchez was starting to snap out of it this past weekend, when he hit into loud outs like this and like this with men on base against the Blue Jays, but alas. Gary took a pitch to the thumb during the London Series, though everyone dismissed that as an excuse for his slump --  "He hasn’t said anything to me (about the thumb), but you can just see his exit velo of balls he does put in play, everything is still the same," hitting coach Marcus Thames told Dan Martin recently -- and I don't think the thumb is to blame either. Sanchez is still hitting the ball hard. He wouldn't be able to do that if he couldn't hold the bat properly. The problem is plate discipline more than anything. Gary has been pretty jumpy at the plate and he's getting caught chasing out of the zone. A graph:

As long as he's healthy -- and there's no reason to think he's not healthy -- I think it's only a matter of time until Sanchez gets locked back in at the plate and starts socking dingers again. He's caught in-between at the moment (late on fastballs, out in front on breaking balls, etc.) and Gary is one of those dudes who tries to snap out of a slump with a five-run home run each at-bat. It's been 16 games. An ugly 16 games, but only 16 games. Guys have 16-game slumps all the time. Example: Edwin Encarnacion. Last week I said I expected Encarnacion to be fine, and sure enough, he started mashing dingers almost immediately. Sanchez will figure it out soon enough. Doesn't make it any less frustrating while he slumps, but he'll get things straightened out before you know it. “It’s a tough stretch for him. He is not putting pitches he should in play when he gets that one he can really pop. It’s more a foul ball or just he’s missing. And such is the ebb and flow of a season," Aaron Boone told Martin earlier this week. (I wrote this before Sanchez went 2-for-4 in the first game of the doubleheader, so the Axisa jinx is at it again.)

4. Chapman's opt-out. Earlier this week I said I don't expect Aroldis Chapman to opt out of his contract following this season because he's over 30, he'd walk away from $30M, and the Yankees would make him the qualifying offer. The next day -- literally the next day -- Ken Rosenthal reported Chapman will "one million percent" opt out after the season. Shows what I know. In my defense, Rosenthal's report is a secondhand report -- he cites a "player who is friendly" with Chapman -- and Chapman of course shot it down, telling Coley Harvey the report is "completely false." Here's more from Chapman, via Zach Braziller:

“God willing, I want to stay here, for sure. But at the same time, from what I understand, after next year, my contract changes a little bit and the Yankees have the ability to trade me. It’s one of those things that is kind of out of my control,” Chapman said, seemingly confirming a report that his no-trade protection goes from full to limited after this season. “But yeah, God willing I’d want to finish [my career] here.” 

Chapman goes from full no-trade protection to partial no-trade protection that allows him to block deals to West Coast teams after this season. Even if they don't intend to opt-out given the player unfriendly free agent market, I am sure Chapman and his camp will try to leverage the opt-out into an extension. That's what CC Sabathia did with his opt-out in 2011. Chapman could ask an extra year to be added to his contract, and for the partial no-trade clause to become a full no-trade clause. Will the Yankees go for it? Beats me. As good as Chapman is, my hunch is the Yankees would call his bluff, slap the qualifying offer on him and take the draft pick, and replace him with a cheaper but still excellent free agent reliever (Will Smith?). Either way, I wouldn't read too much into Rosenthal's report or Chapman's comments. A "player who is friendly" with Chapman hardly qualifies as a concrete report, and of course Chapman was going to deny it. There's no reason for him to come out in mid-July and say he's planning to opt out. Nothing's changed for me. I think the market is too unfriendly for an over-30 player to walk away from $30M. We'll see.

5. Britton's sinker(s). Tuesday night Ken Singleton mentioned he chatted with Zack Britton prior to a recent game, and Britton told him he throws two different sinkers. One is a (slightly) slower sinker with more movement, the other is harder and doesn't move quite as much. I guess Britton uses the slower sinker early in the count to try to get quick ground ball outs, and the harder sinker later in the at-bat when he wants to put hitters away. I went looking for the two sinkers and came up empty. Here is Britton's sinker velocity vs. vertical movement since joining the Yankees last year:

There's a large range in velocity: 93.4 mph to 96.6 mph. Vertical movement though? Not really. The plot is more or less a band at the same vertical movement. Based on what Singleton said Britton told him, we'd expect to see two blobs in the graph. One at a lower velocity with more vertical moment, and one at a higher velocity with less vertical movement. Instead, it's the same movement at different velocities. And that's fine. I'm always inclined to believe the pitcher in these situations. If Britton says he's throwing two sinkers, then he's probably throwing two sinkers and the pitch-tracking systems aren't picking them up in a way we can observe. Bummer, but what can you do? Truth be told, many pitchers have different variations of each pitch. Adam Ottavino definitely has multiple sliders. He has one he sweeps across the plate and another that dives almost down. Sonny Gray has multiple versions of his slider and curveball. Dellin Betances throws two different breaking balls. It's not often one pitch is actually one pitch. Guys will change the velocity and/or movement on certain pitches depending on the game situation. Britton apparently does that with his sinker. I'm not really sure where I'm going with this. The art of pitching fascinates me, especially the way pitchers can manipulate the baseball, and I thought Britton's comments to Singleton were interesting. I was hoping the data would make it easy to see the two different sinkers, but no luck.

6. Heller's setback. Forgotten reliever Ben Heller suffered a setback during his Tommy John surgery rehab earlier this week. He felt discomfort following his most recent rehab outing with Triple-A Scranton, and was sent for tests. "He actually had a little issue (with his) elbow/forearm. He was coming to see the doc. We’ll see what comes of that,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty. Heller struck out seven and threw 6.2 scoreless innings in five rehab games before the setback. Longtime RAB readers know I've been a Heller fan for a while now, since he came over in the Andrew Miller trade. He throws very hard, his fastball runs all over the place, and the slider is good enough to keep hitters honest. Here's some (old) video. There's room in the bullpen for a guy with an arm like that. Now, even if Heller gets good news from the doctor, he's probably not coming back until rosters expand in September. That's a bummer. Jonathan Holder's collapse and Dellin Betances' continued absence has created an opening in the big league bullpen, an opening Heller maybe could've filled at some point. The Yankees don't need a bullpen savior or anything like that, but another power middle innings arm to complement the high-leverage guys and three -- three! -- long men would be nice. Heller maybe could've been that guy. Doesn't sound like he'll get the chance anytime soon though given this recent setback. Tough luck for him. Heller has been out since Spring Training 2018 and there was an immediate path to a big league bullpen spot. This is a lost opportunity for him. This game ain't fair sometimes. Hopefully he comes back strong and can contribute in September.

7. Acevedo's struggles. Know who's having a sneaky bad year? Domingo Acevedo, my preseason No. 17 prospect. The numbers aren't horrible, but they're not good either: 4.32 ERA (4.62 FIP) with 24.0% strikeouts and 7.0% walks in 41.2 innings with Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. He's allowed eight homers in those 41.2 innings. More important than the numbers are the reports. Josh Norris had Acevedo sitting 92-94 mph in May and, more recently, a scout told Randy Miller he had him at 90-91 mph. "I saw him this year and I scratched my head. He was throwing 90-91 and his changeup wasn’t that good," said the scout. The Yankees moved Acevedo to the bullpen full-time this season because his command isn't very good, because his breaking ball hasn't come along, and because he's had trouble staying healthy. Now his velocity is backing up too. That's all a bad combination. Acevedo turned 25 in March, so he's not that young anymore, and this is his second minor league option year. Dellin Betances is the gold standard for super tall pitchers who take a long time -- a long time -- to figure it out, and that's why you don't give up on Acevedo yet. That said, Dellin's velocity never dipped into the low-90s, and his go-to secondary pitch (breaking ball) is miles better than Acevedo's (changeup). The Yankees have a 40-man roster crunch coming -- they have 50 players on the 40-man roster thanks to the 60-day injured list -- and Acevedo's spot could be in jeopardy. The thing is, I'm not sure he can be anything more than the third piece in a larger trade right now. Maybe the Yankees can trade him straight up for international bonus money? The Indians are trading away international bonus money this year -- they sent undisclosed sums to the Padres for fringe 40-man roster reliever Phil Maton and the Rays for fringe 40-man roster utility guy Andrew Velazquez last week -- so maybe there's an Acevedo-for-bonus pool money trade to be made with Cleveland (or some other team). Who knows? Point is, Acevedo's stock is way down this year. The performance isn't good and the stuff is backing up. He still has another minor league option remaining for next year, so the Yankees don't have to get rid of him, but I wonder whether the roster crunch forces a move at some point.

8. 26th roster spot. We're right smack in the middle of the season and the 2019 Yankees are fun as hell and the trade deadline is coming up, yet for some reason I keep thinking about 2020 and beyond, so forgive me for looking ahead for a bit. MLB goes to a 26-man roster next season and it has to be 13 pitches and 13 position players. Why? Who knows, but those are the rules. I've been wondering how the Yankees will use that extra bench spot. Here is the projected 13-position player setup using only 40-man roster players under contract or team control next year:

Again, that is only using players in the organization and either signed or under team control next year. That obviously will not be the actual roster come Opening Day 2020. We're just taking a snapshot in time. I'd bet the farm on Brett Gardner being back next season, which pushes one of those bench guys out of the picture. Re-signing Didi Gregorius seems worthwhile too. Quality two-way shortstops in their prime are worth keeping around. Re-sign Gardner and Sir Didi and the three non-backup bench spots become Gardner, Urshela, plus an extra. The extra could be a promising youngster (Frazier), a reclamation project (Bird), a speed guy to pinch-run (Wade or I guess possibly Terrance Gore), or hey, maybe the Yankees bring back Edwin Encarnacion (or Cameron Maybin). It would give them an outrageously deep lineup and bench. I don't think re-signing Encarnacion will happen, but maybe. My guess is the 13th position player spot will be a revolving door. Want an extra righty bat? Call up Frazier for a few days. An outfielder is nursing a sore hamstring? Carry Tauchman for a bit. So on and so forth. We have to see how the next few months play out (Frazier could be traded, Urshela could turn into a pumpkin, etc.), but, right now, it appears the Yankees will benefit greatly from that extra roster spot. They have more viable big league ballplayers than big league roster spots -- that's even before re-signing Gardner and/or Gregorius -- and, starting next year, it'll be that much easier to carry everyone. Too bad they have to wait until next year, really. The Yankees could use that 26th roster spot right now.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Greg asks: Carlos Martinez is an interesting name and it is curious why the Cards have moved him to the pen. Do you think he is still a viable starter? He's young, he's under team control for 2 more years with 2 team options and has a history of grounders and strikeouts. Cost?

Ken Rosenthal recently reported the Cardinals are open to moving Martinez, who has a 3.18 ERA (3.08 FIP) with 24.7% strikeouts and 64.4% grounders in 22.2 relief innings this year. He's in the bullpen because he had shoulder trouble last year and shoulder trouble again in Spring Training, and the Cardinals are concerned he can't handle a starter's workload.

Martinez is still only 27, and as recently as 2017 he threw 205 innings with a 3.64 ERA (3.91 FIP). His body is starting to betray him though. St. Louis knows Martinez better than anyone, and if they're worried enough about his arm to move him away from starting, that scares me. Here is his contract situation:

• 2019: remainder of $11.5M salary
• 2020: $11.5M
• 2021: $11.5M
• 2022: $17M club option ($500,000 buyout)
• 2023: $18M club option ($500,000 buyout)

It works out to a $10.2M luxury tax hit through 2021. Perhaps Martinez would be able to start next year after a healthy offseason full of rest. I'm not really sure. The thing is, even if he is a reliever forever now, he's a really good reliever. Martinez is being used as a high-leverage guy and he has the power bat-missing stuff the Yankees crave in that role, and the contract wouldn't be terrible by reliever standards (it's a little more than Adam Ottavino money).

The Yankees could, in theory, trade for Martinez at the deadline, use him in relief the rest of the season, then try him again as a starter in Spring Training. And if his arm says no, starting won't work, you move him back to the bullpen and add him to the collection of high-leverage power arms. I'm not sure you could count on Martinez being a rotation solution, but he can help in some capacity, for sure.

What would it take to get him? Geez, I'm not sure. Trade packages are always tough to predict. The Cardinals are a .500-ish team but they are fairly well set up everywhere, so maybe they'd just want the best possible prospects in return, regardless of position. That could work for the Yankees, who presumably don't want to subtract from the MLB roster.

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