June 4th, 2019: 2019 Draft, Volpe, Sikkema, Frazier, Gregorius, Voit

The 2019 MLB Draft is underway and gosh, these are the days I absolutely do not miss RAB. The draft is fun but it was so much work. I hope I can fill the void a little bit with the twice weekly thoughts posts. Thanks as always for the support. Let's get to it.

1. Volpe pick. The draft started last night -- I get they're trying to make the draft a thing, but MLB needs to do away with the draft broadcast, four hours for 35 picks (and five and a half hours for 78 picks) is absolutely brutal -- and the Yankees made three selections. They've been alternating first round picks I like with first round picks I don't like for a few years now. I really liked the Anthony Seigler pick last year. Didn't like the Clarke Schmidt pick the year before, largely because of the whole Tommy John surgery thing. Loved loved loved the Blake Rutherford pick the year before that. James Kaprielian in 2015? Meh, fine. That trend continued last night. The Yankees took New Jersey HS SS Anthony Volpe (video) -- Tony Volpe is an extremely New Jersey name -- with their first round pick (30th overall), and it seems like they did the whole "overrating makeup" thing they've been known to do. Don't get me wrong, good makeup is important! But the Yankees go a bit overboard at times. Anyway, here's a snippet of MLB.com's scouting report for Volpe:

Volpe is the kind of player who grows on evaluators the more they see him, with his whole being greater than the sum of his parts. He gets an 80 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale for his makeup and work ethic. He does have a solid approach at the plate with excellent bat control and while he doesn't have a ton of power, there is enough strength to keep pitchers honest ... He has good hands and footwork and while he might have an average arm, some feel it might mean that second base will be a better long-term home for him, even if a team sends him out as a shortstop initially ... Because of his track record for performing well against good competition and his makeup, it might be wrong to bet against Volpe.

"We like a lot about him. He’s going to be a shortstop: the guy can hit, he can run, he’s got plus actions, he’s got really good hands, and he’s got a shortstop’s arm. He’s got tools. He’s been on the big stage with the USA national teams, so he’s got performance, and with a deluxe make-up, the kid brings it every day," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said in a statement. Various mock drafts -- I get that it's an SEO thing, but I hate that Baseball America updates one single mock draft post rather than produce a new post each time (would be nice to see older versions!)  -- had Volpe going as high as 19th overall to the Cardinals. He is strongly committed to Vanderbilt and my guess is he'll get (quite a bit) more than the $2,365,500 slot value. (Wikipedia tells me his school charges $37,900 a year for tuition, so I assume his family doesn't need the money and can afford to negotiate tough for an overslot bonus.) The Yankees didn't just wing it with that much bonus pool money on the line. They gauged Volpe's signability and know what'll take to get him to turn pro. Heck, they might have agreed to a pre-draft deal. Those are technically against the rules but everyone does it and MLB looks the other way. Volpe's a fine prospect and hopefully he develops into what the scouting report suggests is essentially a Dustin Pedroia clone. That would be pretty rad. It's just that, with the extra pick and extra bonus pool money this year, I was hoping the Yankees would shoot for the moon with someone like Florida HS RHP Brennan Malone (33rd overall to the Diamondbacks) or Missouri OF Kameron Misner (35th overall to the Marlins), but it didn't happen. Alas.

2. Sikkema pick. The Yankees used their second pick (38th overall), the Competitive Balance Round A pick they acquired from the Reds in the Sonny Gray trade, on Missouri LHP T.J. Sikkema (video). The lad is an absolute unit at 6-foot-0 and 221 lbs., and MLB.com's scouting report has "the Yankees are going to have this dude throwing 96-97 mph by September" written all over it:

He's a left-hander with three effective pitches and a history of success in a variety of roles, not to mention competitiveness and confidence that are off the charts ... Sikkema usually operates at 89-91 mph with run and sink on his fastball from a lower three-quarters arm angle, though he can raise his slot and reach back for 93-95 mph when needed. He has tremendous feel for manipulating the shape of his high-spin slider, which ranges from 78-83 mph and is a plus pitch at its best. He also has advanced feel for a sinking changeup that he'll throw in any count ... He has one of the higher floors among college pitchers in this Draft, projecting as at least a lefty reliever at the Major League level, and his deception and conviction could carry him to a role at the back of a rotation.

"Sikkema has a unique ability to throw from different angles. He’s got plus stuff, he throws it for strikes, and the guy’s a real ultimate competitor. He really gets after it on the mound. He can probably get to the big leagues quickly as a reliever, but we see him as a starter," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said in a statement. For what it's worth, Aaron Fitt says he heard from some scouts who had Sikkema as a mid-first round talent. This spring Sikkema threw 88.2 innings with a 1.32 ERA and 101/31 K/BB. The Yankees have gotten so good at helping their pitching prospects up their velocity and improve the overall quality of their stuff that taking Sikkema at face value now is kinda silly. Chances are he will look much different when he reaches the big leagues, assuming he does in fact reach the big leagues, of course. More velocity, a sharper breaking ball -- it is not at all a coincidence the spin rate loving Yankees went after a pitching prospect who is said to have a " high-spin slider" -- a more consistent arm angle, whatever. As long as he stays healthy (fingers crossed), my gut feeling is Sikkema is someone who can make big developmental gains under the Yankees and their player development department. He's slotted for $1,952,300 and I expect Sikkema to sign for pretty much exactly that.

3. Smith pick. The Yankees used their second round pick (67th overall) on LSU SS Josh Smith (video), and, to me, this seems like a case of "we better take this guy now, otherwise we're not getting another good middle infielder in this draft." There was a run on college infielders in the second round (eight were taken between pick Nos. 43-68) and the various rankings indicate there's a gap between those guys and the remaining available infielders. The Yankees were not going to get a player like Smith in the third round or later. It was now or never. Anyway, here is the obligatory MLB.com scouting report snippet:

Smith makes repeated contact from the left side of the plate, using the entire field and controlling the strike zone. He has solid raw power and drives the ball consistently enough to provide 15 or more homers per season. He has solid to plus speed and the savvy to use it well on the bases ... Smith also shows good instincts in the field, giving him a chance to stay at shortstop even if many scouts project him to shift to second base at the big league level ... He doesn't have a true plus tool but he also doesn't have a glaring weakness, and he has a high floor as a good bet to become at least a utilityman.

“We see him as a middle infielder, whether it’s short, whether it’s second, whatever it takes. He’s a left-handed hitter with pop and he can really hit. We like the fact that he has the tools to stay in the middle of the field and be a good offensive contributor," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said in a statement. It's worth noting Smith played only six games as a sophomore -- he missed summer ball as well -- due to a stress reaction in his back. An injury like that will be an ongoing concern. Smith was healthy this spring though, and he authored a .341/.431/.507 batting line with 11 homers and 15 steals in 55 games. A lefty hitting middle infielder with good defensive chops and some offensive potential is about what you're going to get at the end of the second round. The Yankees have a very pitching and outfield heavy farm system right now. The Anthony Volpe and Smith picks will help address their infield deficiency, kinda like how Anthony Seigler and Josh Breaux helped address their catching weakness last year. Hmmm, maybe the Yankees really are drafted for need? Nah, I think it's a coincidence. Catchers and middle infielders are always hot commodities on draft day. Anyway, Smith is slotted for $976,700 and I think he'll wind up signing for less than that given the back injury. Maybe closer to $800,000? Not sure, just taking a guess with that number.

4. Leiter's kid. Jack Leiter, Al's son, is arguably the top high school pitcher in the country and he remains on the board. At this point, I have to believe he's heading to school. Leiter is strongly committed to Vanderbilt and is reportedly only willing to sign with the Yankees or Mets (at a big number). The Mets don't have any extra picks and don't have the bonus pool space to make it work given who they've already selected. The Yankees had the bonus pool space for Leiter before committing a (presumably) overslot bonus to first rounder Anthony Volpe (Leiter's teammate!), and there's probably not enough left over now. Basically, had Leiter been considered signable, he would have been drafted already. These high asking price high schoolers have had a tendency to wind up in college during the draft pool era and it sure looks like Leiter is going to Vanderbilt. As a super advanced kid with a deep arsenal and pitching know-how (pretty much exactly what you expect from the son of a longtime big leaguer), he could come out as a No. 1 pick candidate after three years with the Commodores. The Yankees were only loosely tied to Leiter the last few weeks -- really, the only connection was the report indicating he would only sign with a New York team -- so I'm not surprised they passed. It never really seemed like it was going to happen. At this point in the draft, all the best available high schoolers (Leiter, Florida RHP Matthew Allan, Florida LHP Hunter Barco, Florida 3B Tyler Callihan, California 1B/LHP Spencer Jones) are unlikely to sign. In the draft pool era, when a projected first round high schooler doesn't come off the board on Day One, he usually winds up in college. Day Two is mostly about getting the draft pool in order with underslot signings. The Yankees might grab Leiter (or Callihan, a long rumored target) in the very late rounds on Day Three, though that is ultimately meaningless. They won't sign there. Long story short, the Yankees took their overslot shot with Volpe. Leiter isn't happening for the Yankees or any other team at this point.

5. Day Two picks. There aren't many personal favorites I hope the Yankees select on Day Two of the draft Tuesday. One of the few is Stanford LHP Erik Miller (video). MLB.com's scouting report:

The 6-foot-5, 240-pound southpaw has the chance to have three pitches at his disposal. His fastball touches 96-97 mph at times, and his velocity has crept upwards this spring after starting the spring at 88-92 mph. He complements the heater well with a slider that's plus at times and he'll flash an above-average changeup as well ... Pure stuff-wise, Miller could be put side-by-side, if not ahead of, some of the college lefties ahead of him on Draft boards. His command and delivery issues have led some evaluators to see a future in the bullpen, where his fastball-slider combination from the left side could lead to a Josh Hader-like role in the future.

There's a pretty good chance Miller will be among the first players selected in the third round when the draft resumes Tuesday, so the Yankees may not have a shot to get him. What can you do? I like him as a Day Two target though. Lefties with that pitch package usually come off the board in the first or second round. Another personal favorite still on the board is Arkansas LHP Matt Cronin (video). MLB.com's scouting report:

There's nothing subtle about Cronin, who attacks hitters with two plus pitches that feature outstanding spin rates. His 92-96 mph fastball gets great carry in the strike zone, appearing to rise as it reaches the plate. His over-the-top arm slot helps him get nice depth on his curveball, which can be a true hammer in the mid 70s ... He projects as a setup man with perhaps a chance to close if he provides more strikes.

A quick moving career college reliever who's been closing games in the SEC (and in the College World Series) the last two years is a pretty good target for one of those bonus pool saving picks on Day Two. The Yankees have been using their Day Two picks on big arm college kids like Glenn Otto, Nick Nelson, and Chance Adams since the bonus pool system was put in place in 2012. No reason to think that'll change now. Miller and Cronin are two guys I like. Maybe the Yankees will draft them. Probably not given the numbers game, but maybe.

6. Frazier's accountability. Okay, let's get to the big league Yankees. As I'm sure you've heard, Clint Frazier ducked the media following Sunday night's defensive disaster. I can't remember the last time a Yankee did that. I know Rafael Soriano did it after a blown save, so maybe it was him? That was a long time ago. Either way, it's a bad look for Frazier. I get that he's frustrated and was probably embarrassed, but just go out, spout some cliches, and everyone moves on. Instead, this is now A Thing. It's dumb, but people care. Chief among them: The Yankees. The Yankees take media training very seriously, understandably -- they put their players through an hours-long media training session in Spring Training each year -- and "don't duck reporters after a bad game" is Media Training 101. Showing up is the bare minimum. Frazier didn't do that and instead guys like Aaron Hicks and Luke Voit were left to answer questions about Clint's defense. A universal truth in sports is players do not like having to talk about their teammate's bad day for him. For a 24-year-old kid with like five minutes in the big leagues, it is especially not good. Miguel Andujar had his defensive issues last year and he answered every question. Greg Bird has been hurt and/or bad for three years running now and that dude is at his locker after every single game. Coley Harvey eventually reached Frazier following Sunday's game and here's what Clint said:

"I’ve been working really hard every day with (outfield instructor) Reggie (Willits) before BP starts and despite what has been happening during the game, I’m still confident in myself to be able to turn this around soon. It’s tough to cost the team runs and a potential win, especially when playing at home against Boston. Things keep happening that shouldn’t and I’m acknowledging that with all of the early work I’m doing before games."

See how easy and painless that is? I get that he was frustrated and embarrassed, but that's all he had to say after the game. I reckon Frazier caught an earful from Brett Gardner, the team's media relations folks, and possibly some others during the flight to Toronto. Frazier's defense has been impossibly awful and I get why he wouldn't want to talk about it. It's part of the job though. And, when you're a young player trying to establish yourself as a big league regular, giving the team any sort of reason to send you down when the roster crunch arrives is a bad idea. Just answer the questions, dude. Your teammates will appreciate it more than anyone. "Every guy has got his back. Everyone is going to make those mistakes. I've made them, (Aaron) Judge has made them, (Giancarlo) Stanton, whoever. It's part of the game. The hard part is, you're playing here. It's hard because the fans want you to play mistake-free baseball," Voit told Bryan Hoch following Sunday's game.  

7. Frazier's defense. Alright, so what do the Yankees do about Clint Frazier's defense? It is untenable. Some quick numbers:

• Outs Above Average: -11 (worst in MLB)
• Defensive Runs Saved: -8 (second worst among outfielders)
• Ultimate Zone Rating: -2.9 (-4.4 when you remove his throwing)

The numbers are bad and the eye test is somehow even worse. Frazier is out in right field taking fly balls before every game -- he and the rehabbing Aaron Judge are outfield workout buddies at the moment -- so it's not like he's not doing anything. The Yankees have three options, realistically: 1) send Frazier to Triple-A to work on his defense, 2) put him at DH full-time, or 3) keep running him out there. Option (1) is a non-option for me right now. I know Kendrys Morales had a nice game Saturday, but as long as he and his 65 wRC+ and 70.7% ground ball rate as a Yankee are on the roster, sending Frazier down would be a mistake. There is clearly room for his bat in the lineup. Also, Clint is at the point in his development where he needs to face MLB pitching to get better. Send him down to work on his defense and you risk stagnating his offense. Triple-A pitching won't challenge him. Maybe when Judge or Giancarlo Stanton returns, sending Frazier down will make more sense. It doesn't make any sense given the roster right now. Option (2) is the easiest move. Sit Morales, put Frazier at DH, and play Cameron Maybin in right field. The offense and defense improve. Easy peasy. Option (3) should not be dismissed out of hand. In fact, I think you could argue the best thing would be to throw Frazier out there in right field tonight, similar to a closer who blows a save and gets right back out there the next day. The bad stuff happened, so you can either sit and dwell on it, or move forward and try to be better next time. Even with his confidence taking a hit, my hunch is Frazier wants to be out there tonight. Will the Yankees let him? Who knows. Right now, with Morales not working out, I think giving Frazier a little more time at DH is the smart move. I wouldn't take him out of the outfield completely though. He's young and he needs to work at his defense to get better. Much like Miguel Andujar, relegating Frazier to DH at this point in his career is silly. Give him a chance to get better. (Look how much Gary Sanchez's defense has improved this year, for example.)

8. Team defense. This point sounded better before Frazier barfed all over everything on Sunday night, but it's still work making: The Yankees are a much better defensive team this year than last year. Their team -10 DRS is eighth worst in baseball but Frazier and his -8 DRS take the blame for most of that. Pretty much everyone else has been really good in the field. Here is the team's Defensive Efficiency the last two years:

• 2018: .700 (24th in MLB)
• 2019: .718 (7th in MLB)

Defensive Efficiency is very straightforward. It is the percentage of batted balls turned into outs. Last year the Yankees turned 70.0% of batted balls into outs. This year it's 71.8% percent. That doesn't sound like a huge improvement, but it is roughly one extra out per series, and that one extra out could have a big impact depending when it happens. I love Miguel Andujar, but Gio Urshela is so much better defensively at third base. They are on completely opposite ends of the defensive spectrum. I think Gleyber Torres looks much smoother and more natural at shortstop than he does at second base. DJ LeMahieu has been great at second and third. Defensive Efficiency doesn't factor in play difficulty -- last year opponents had a .503 BABIP on balls with a 100+ mph exit velocity against the Yankees, and this year it's .571, so make of that what you will -- but I like it as a very quick and dirty measure of team defense. Even with Frazier flopping around in right field, my eyes tell me the Yankees are a better defensive team this year than last year, especially on the infield. (Last year opponents had a .259 BABIP on ground balls against the Yankees. This year it's .229. So yeah.)

9. Didi's return. Speaking of infield defense, Didi Gregorius is almost back! Aaron Boone said over the weekend the plan is to activate Sir Didi for Friday night's series opener in Cleveland. Gregorius is 3-fo-23 (.130) in six rehab games thus far, including 1-for-16 (.063) in four games with Triple-A Scranton. He's still searching for his timing, which is not surprising at all considering he is essentially in Spring Training mode following a longer than usual offseason. Keeping him in Triple-A until he finds his timing isn't really an option because you can't get your MLB timing down against Triple-A pitching. As long as things go well these next few days and the elbow is strong, Gregorius will be back Friday. Hooray for that. Playing time will be a complete non-issue. The Yankees will have five infielders (Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit) for four spots. They'll rotate around -- LeMahieu will fill in at first base for Voit, which was the original plan coming into the season -- so that is approximately one day off per week for each infielder. Then there's potential DH days plus what will be a light workload for Didi initially. Boone said the Yankees probably won't play Gregorius more than two out of every three days, or three out of every four days, when he first returns. They'll ease him into things a bit. Don't sweat the playing time. The more good players, the better, and Gregorius is a very good player. The Yankees will soon add another quality lefty bat to their lineup and another good defensive player to their infield, and their FAR (Fun Above Replacement) is about to go way up. I've missed Didi. Can't wait to see him back on the field.

10. Voit's analytics. Luke Voit is not hitting like he did last year. I'm not trying to knock the guy. I don't think anyone realistically expected Voit to hit .322/.398/.671 (187 wRC+) again. That was absurd. Voit is hitting .268/.379/.521 (139 wRC+) this year and he's on a 42-homer pace. That's awesome. He's been great. Less great than last year, but still great. (Voit and Carlos Santana are tied for the wRC+ lead among AL first basemen.) Anyway, I bring this up because all those exit velocity and contact quality numbers we talked about with Voit last year? They're all down this year. The numbers:

I'm not trying to create panic here. Even with the drop from last season, Voit's contact numbers are still among the best in baseball. His barrel rate is in the top 4% of the league. His expected wOBA is in the top 6%. It's just that last year Voit was putting up superhuman numbers. That was some 2017 Aaron Judge stuff, you know? This, what Voit is doing now, is much more normal looking. This looks like the real Luke Voit. He's still hitting the snot out of the ball, he's not striking out excessively (23.7%), he's drawing plenty of walks (13.0%), and he's more than holding his own against righties (146 wRC+). Voit's defense is not all that good, but he makes up for it with his bat, and what a bat it is. This dude is completely legit, and we now have more evidence than last year's small sample size awesomeness to prove it. First base had been a black hole since Mark Teixeira's last good season in 2015. Now the Yankees have one of the game's best hitters at the position, and all it cost them was two middle relievers they don't miss. What a trade.