May 31st, 2019: Rainout, Keuchel, Ottavino, Cortes, Morales, 2019 Draft

In case you missed it last time:  Bob, Derek, Matt, and Steven launched a new post-RAB blog called Views from 314 ft (Twitter: @ViewsFrom314ft). They have game threads (with comments!), game recaps, minor league updates, and plenty of analysis. Make sure you check it out. Now here are my latest random thoughts.

1. Clutch rainout. Last night's rainout was seriously clutch. Couldn't have come at a better time for the Yankees. First and foremost, it allows them to skip the opener/bullpen game they had planned for either today or tomorrow. The Yankees have won all three games Chad Green has opened this year, but still, if you can avoid that, you avoid it. Secondly, the bullpen is now well-rested for these next three games. Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, and Tommy Kahnle haven't pitched since Monday and Adam Ottavino has thrown 10 pitches (all Wednesday) since Monday. Pretty great. Remember, Monday is an off-day. Aaron Boone can really lean on the bullpen this weekend knowing that built-in rest day is coming. Third, the makeup game is scheduled for August 3rd, and the Yankees will (hopefully) be much healthier then. Luis Severino could start that game! Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton could be in the lineup! That obviously would not have been the case last night. And fourth, the Yankees will have any trade deadline additions available for the makeup game since it's after the (single) July 31st deadline. That applies to the Red Sox as well, but hey, I'll take it. The Yankees weren't in terrible shape going into the game last night. It's not like the high-leverage relievers had been worked a ton or anything. Still, they get to avoid the opener/bullpen game and play the makeup game when they'll (hopefully) have more healthy regulars in the lineup. The timing of that rainout could not have been better. This weekend is a chance to create some serious separation with the Red Sox and the Yankees are set up about as well as possible given their current roster situation. Now they have to take advantage.

2. Keuchel chatter. It is getting the point where the Yankees almost have to sign Dallas Keuchel given their rotation situation. We don't know when Luis Severino will return or how effective he'll be when he does return. James Paxton is apparently going to pitch on an achy knee the rest of the summer. J.A. Happ has been underwhelming and Domingo German has a workload limit. The Yankees need another starter and Keuchel is the most readily available option. Would you rather acquire Keuchel for cash in early June or trade prospects for Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor, or whoever else at the deadline in late July? Exactly. Draft pick compensation goes away at 12:01am ET next Monday and Buster Olney says Keuchel's camp (i.e. Scott Boras) is open to a pro-rated one-year deal in the qualifying offer range ($17.9M). Sign him Monday (not going to happen, but humor me) and that works out to $11.5M or so. It'll cost the Yankees roughly $15.2M in real money given the luxury tax, but it'll keep them out of the third luxury tax tier, and there's no long-term commitment. I want zero part of Keuchel on a long-term contract. There are too many red flags (declining strikeouts and grounders, wavering command) to commit multiple years to that guy, especially in a hitter friendly home ballpark in a hitter friendly division. Pro-rated for the rest of the season though? Sign me up. Keuchel doesn't fit the Yankees at all -- they love their high-strikeout, high-spin guys and Keuchel is decidedly not that -- but I have to think they'd be willing to ride out the rest of the season with him, especially since it only costs money (as of Monday). Losing Paxton and CC Sabathia (and Jonathan Loaisiga) at the same time was a harsh reminder the Yankees are nearing the limits of their depth. Perhaps that'll push them to pursue Keuchel aggressively as soon as the draft pick compensation thing goes away. Like I said, they need another starter and he's the most readily available option. It may not be a perfect fit, but it is an improvement.

3. Leveraging Ottavino. I am in love with the way Aaron Boone is using Adam Ottavino. It is ideal relief ace usage. Here are some numbers for the six relievers the Yankees have had in the bullpen all season:

Leverage Index (when entering the game)
1. Adam Ottavino: 1.66
2. Aroldis Chapman: 1.56
3. Zack Britton: 1.39
4. Jonathan Holder: 1.32
5. Tommy Kahnle: 1.21
6. Luis Cessa: 1.03

Opponent's OPS (OPS of batters faced, not the pitcher's OPS allowed)
1. Adam Ottavino: .762
2. Luis Cessa: .760
3. Zack Britton: .743
4. Tommy Kahnle: .727
5. Aroldis Chapman: .726
6. Jonathan Holder: .719

Ottavino has entered games in the sixth inning (nine times), seventh inning (ten times), and eighth inning (six times), and he is consistently facing the other team's best hitters in the game's most important situations. Perfect. It is perfect. Can you imagine Joe Girardi using a reliever like that? I can't. For better or worse, Girardi stuck to his assigned innings, and hey, it worked well for him. I'd much rather use my best reliever against the other team's best hitters though, regardless of inning. To be sure, having Kahnle and Britton as setup options and Chapman in the ninth inning makes using Ottavino this way pretty easy. If the bullpen were Ottavino and seven Cessas, things wouldn't go as smoothly. The bullpen is very good and very deep though, and Boone is maximizing its effectiveness by leveraging the hell out of Ottavino. This is so great. I love the way Ottavino is being used.

4. Third time through. The Yankees have been steadfast in not letting their pitchers go through the lineup a third time this season. Part of that is the rotation's limitations -- J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia, and Masahiro Tanaka all have ugly splits the third time through the lineup -- and part of it is having a great bullpen, but yeah, the Yankees do their best to avoid letting their pitchers go through the lineup a third time. Here are the fewest batters faced the third (and fourth) time through the lineup this season:

1. Angels: 182
2. Rays: 184
3. Orioles: 214
4. Brewers: 223
5. Blue Jays: 235
6. Giants: 244
7. Yankees: 246

The Nationals lead baseball with 387 batters faced the third (or fourth) time through the lineup and it's not close. It's also understandable. They have three horses atop the rotation (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and why didn't the Yankees sign Patrick Corbin) and their bullpen is atrocious. Their bullpen has a 7.23 ERA (5.05 FIP) on the year (for real), so of course they're going to try to squeeze those extra outs from their starters. Anyway, the Yankees do not let their starters go through the lineup three times, and that's smart. The downside is it puts that much more responsibility on the bullpen's shoulders. The Yankees have more relief depth than most teams and can better deal with that workload, but, as we've seen these last two or three weeks, they can definitely run into trouble with their bullpen getting worn down. I'm not really sure where I'm going with this. The third time through the order thing is more of an observation than a point I'm trying to make. If you're wondering why Aaron Boone has such a quick hook at times, this is why. The Yankees are full-fledged believers in avoiding the third time through the order.

5. Nasty Nestor. I'm not much of a Nestor Cortes fan -- I don't see a single out-pitch and his margin for error is really small -- but I am weirdly intrigued by the idea of him as a change of pace guy. Could you imagine, say, James Paxton coming at you with 96-98 mph elevated fastballs for six innings, then facing Cortes with that dead fish changeup and all those arm angles? His 88 mph fastball would probably look like 78 mph following Paxton, and that could really mess with a hitter. I remember reading a few years ago that Daniel Bard and his upper-90s gas was most effective on days when he came out of the bullpen to replace the knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Could Cortes have a similar impact the other way, with the soft-tosser following the hard-thrower? I'm not sure, and I don't know whether we'll get a chance to find out either. The Yankees will (and should) go to their high leverage relievers in close games, so the only real opportunity to use Cortes as a change of pace reliever will come in blowout wins, and those don't happen too often. If nothing else, Cortes provides a very different look on a staff loaded with hard-throwers. He gets on the mound, sits in his rocking chair, and lulls hitters to sleep.

6. Morales struggling. The Kendrys Morales thing isn't really working out. He is 5-for-36 (.139) with the Yankees -- he does have eight walks and only two strikeouts though, so that's cool -- and a bat-only guy who isn't hitting is a negative. Not a zero, a negative. It was worth a shot because Morales was basically free and the Yankees were short a hitter due to injuries at the time, and because the exit velocity data indicated there could be better days ahead, but yeah, it's not working out. The Yankees could dump Morales and call up Mike Ford, but I don't see that happening, especially with the Red Sox potentially starting three lefties this weekend. Clint Frazier at DH with Cameron Maybin in right field is the obvious alternative. That improves the offense (Maybin has been sneaky solid) and it definitely improves the defense. Didi Gregorius is expected back sometime next week (!), so the Yankees could roll with Frazier at DH and Maybin in right field until then. Once Sir Didi returns, the Yankees will have four infielders (Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, and Gio Urshela) for three spots (second, short, third). Just use the spare infielder at DH rather than Morales. That seems easy enough. Point is, it made sense to roll the dice on Morales given the roster situation at the time, but he's not hitting and the roster situation has changed, and it will change further with Gregorius nearing a return. The Yankees have had so many fill-in players hit on their best case (or close to best case) scenario this season. They were bound to run into one who didn't work out at some point, and the soon-to-be 36-year-old DH on this third team in three months was a pretty good candidate to be the one that didn't work out. Such is life. It's getting to be time to move on from Big Ken.

7. Mock draft updates. The three-day amateur draft begins Monday, and, while the draft is all kinds of fun, these are definitely the days I do not miss RAB. The draft was so much work. Long nights, lots of research, and lots of posts. I won't miss that part of it. It'll be nice to sit back and just watch this year, at least as much as my CBS work will allow. Anyway, here's what the latest mock drafts say for the Yankees and their first round pick (30th overall):

• Baseball America: Florida HS 3B Tyler Callihan
• Keith Law: Florida HS 3B Rece Hinds
• MLB.com (Jim Callis): Callihan
• MLB.com (Jonathan Mayo): Missouri OF Kameron Misner
• FanGraphs: Misner (and Hinds in the second round)

We're starting to get something of a consensus. Callihan, Hinds, and Misner are all the sort of tools freaks the Yankees love. Callihan can really hit, for both average and power, but it's unclear if he'll stick at third base and he's an older high school kid (turns 19 next month). The Yankees aren't shy about taking older high schoolers though. Blake Rutherford was old for his draft class and Anthony Seigler was roughly Callihan's age on draft day. Hinds has huge raw power and, like Callihan, it's unclear whether he'll remain at third. The question with Hinds is will he make enough contact at the next level? There's some swing-and-miss in his game. Misner's an interesting one because the tools are so impressive, but the performance isn't. He's hitting .287/.443/.485 with a 21.4% strikeout rate this spring, and that's not good for a potential first round college bat. Check out MLB.com's scouting report though:

Misner's bat speed, strength and the leverage in his 6-foot-4 frame give him huge raw power that he's just beginning to tap into. He's a polished hitter with a sound left-handed swing, good balance and a mature approach that had him leading NCAA Division I in walks when he got hurt in 2018 (broke his right foot on a fouled pitch). He also has plus speed and the aptitude to steal bases, making him a 20-20 threat. 

After playing mostly left field as a freshman and a lot of first base as a sophomore, Misner has looked comfortable in center field this spring. He has the quickness and strong arm to patrol anywhere in the outfield, with a chance to stick in center in pro ball and the tools to profile well in right. Scouts love his makeup as well. 

The Yankees being connected to Hinds and Misner, and also Callihan to a lesser extent, indicates they are willing to roll the dice on loud tools and feel confident in their ability to improve contact rates. Hey, they did it with Aaron Judge. Why not try it again? My dream first round pick is California HS 3B Keoni Cavaco. I love that kid. Sounds like he'll be long gone before the Yankees pick though. Bummer. This draft is weirdly short on high-end arms, so the smart money is on the Yankees grabbing a bat with their first round pick Monday. They could very well wind up with two toolsy position players like Callihan, Hinds, and Misner since they hold the 38th overall pick as well. "I have to lead by example. I get out there and I still scout. I'm visiting kids in the offseason. I think it's the whole blend of the analytics side is the only thing that has really changed. The work ethic is still the same. Going to get to know what's in the kid's heart, that's the same. We just keep trying to put players in the system with that," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer told Bryan Hoch recently.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Bill asks: Do you think Frazier's bad defense is from him holding back in the field? Seems like before last year's concussion issues he went all out in the outfield on defense, and now it seems like he's getting nervous close to walls, and not diving as much. Don't blame the guy. If I was getting dizzy, and headaches from hits to the dome where my brain is located, I'd be a bit gun shy too. Just a thought. 

I can't answer this with any certainty but it is definitely possible, and I wouldn't blame him one bit. Last year's concussion issues were pretty extreme and brain injuries are not something to screw around with. They can have serious life-altering consequences. Clint Frazier has looked tentative at times in the field, especially around the wall, and it could be he is holding back to protect himself.

There was a play in Spring Training when Frazier kinda sorta crashed into the wall chasing a home run (video), and afterward he said he would not tone down his aggressiveness. From Dan Martin:

“That was the first time I collided with a wall since (the concussion), but I didn’t even hit it that hard,’’ Frazier said of Tuesday’s play. “I tried to time it to rob the homer and it nicked my glove. It was still a good step for me because I’ve been saying I’m not gonna tone down my aggressiveness and that was the first time to show it. I went through so much stuff in the offseason to prepare myself for another moment like that. I’m trying to be aggressive but smart."

Maybe Frazier is trying to protect the ankle that sent him to the injured list earlier this year? Doesn't seem likely, but who knows. Could be he's nursing an undisclosed injury -- you'd be surprised what guys play through, there is definitely a difference between hurt and injured -- and that's why he's holding up.

Whatever it is, I think Frazier has been noticeably apprehensive around the wall the last few weeks, and it could be because he's being careful after the concussion last year. At the same time, some of his dives on balls hit in front of him or off to the side have been pretty ugly, so it could just be he stinks at defense. If Frazier is holding back because of the concussion, I don't blame him. If it's because he's bad at defense, well, hopefully he gets better and soon.

(Send mailbag questions to RABmailbag@gmail.com.)