May 1st, 2019: Sabathia, Rotation, Lineup, Voit, Green, Deivi

Yesterday was literally the first day in my adult life without RAB and folks, let me tell you, it was weird as hell. I kept thinking I needed to get started on the game thread throughout the afternoon, and during the game I was making mental notes for the recap. I imagine it'll be a while before I get over that. Anyway, here are the first set of Patreon thoughts. I sincerely thank everyone who signed up. The support has been incredible.

1. I'm so happy CC Sabathia reached 3,000 strikeouts last night. I mean, we all knew it would happen at some point coming into the season, but it's still awesome. Sabathia is the 17th pitcher in history to reach 3,000 strikeouts -- 14 of the other 16 are in the Hall of Fame (Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling are the exceptions) -- and he's only the third lefty to reach the milestone. The all-time lefty strikeout leaderboard:

1. Randy Johnson: 4,875
2. Steve Carlton: 4,136
3. CC Sabathia: 3,002 (and counting)
4. Mickey Lolich: 2,832
5. Frank Tanana: 2,773 

Sabathia is the all-time American League strikeout leader among lefties and that's pretty cool. At the very least, he will deserve very serious Hall of Fame consideration when the time comes in a few years. Hall of Fame or no Hall of Fame, there has to be a spot for Sabathia in Monument Park, right? Eleven seasons with the Yankees, ace of a World Series winning team, all-time great teammate, and one of the best free agent signings in franchise history. Unless I'm overlooking someone obvious, the Yankees' top five free agent signings are Sabathia, Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, Mike Mussina, and Goose Gossage in whatever order. (Hideki Matsui is right there as well.) I am all for retiring No. 52 and giving Sabathia a plaque in Monument Park. If the Yankees don't put this dude in Monument Park, then what's the point of it all?

2. There is so much going on with the Yankees this season (injuries, sketchy bullpen work, more injuries, etc.) that it's easy to overlook just how excellent the rotation has been. Even with J.A. Happ starting slowly and a few other hiccups, the rotation has been great. Their rotation ranks following last night's game:

• ERA: 3.50 (third in AL, sixth in MLB)
• ERA-: 78 (third in AL, fourth in MLB)
• FIP: 3.88 (sixth in AL, tenth in MLB)
• FIP-: 83 (fourth in AL, sixth in MLB)

The park-adjusted numbers are among the best in the league. James Paxton has been dominant at times and very good overall. Sabathia's been rock solid in three of his four starts. Domingo German has been out of this world good outside the messy sixth inning Sunday. German's been so good (2.56 ERA and 2.78 FIP) that the Yankees haven't missed Luis Severino. That doesn't mean the Yankees don't need Severino. That's silly. It just means there hasn't been a drop off from Severino to his replacement so far. That's pretty awesome. And the thing is, aside from German being this good, none of these seems unsustainable. If anything, you could argue there is room for improvement given Happ's first few times out. The makeshift lineup and the timely hits and the stolen bases and all that are getting a lot of attention for the recent hot streak. It all starts with the pitching though. The Yankees are getting a quality outing pretty much every night. 

3. Troy Tulowitzki (1-for-3 with a homer) and Miguel Andujar (0-for-4) both started minor league rehab assignments with High-A Tampa last night, and, if all goes well, it sounds like they could rejoin the Yankees this coming weekend. Giancarlo Stanton and Clint Frazier supposedly aren't too far behind them, and Aaron Hicks will play in his first Extended Spring Training game today. And thank goodness for that. The replacement Yankees have played well these last two weeks, far better than anyone could've reasonably expected, but this can't last. Mike Tauchman shouldn't hit fifth in a Triple-A lineup, let alone the Yankees' lineup. When you miss Gio Urshela for his bat rather than his glove (!), you know the lineup is in bad shape. Zack Greinke picked the bottom of the lineup apart last night. It was a total mismatch. Andujar, Stanton, and Frazier are big comebacks. I don't expect much from Tulowitzki -- it'll be good to have him healthy simply because healthy players are better than injured players, but I don't expect much -- and Hicks is probably still a few weeks away seeing how he needs to go through an entire Spring Training. Andujar, Stanton, and Frazier might be back within a week and they are significant lineup additions. Some of these lineups the Yankees have been running out there the last two weeks make you wonder how they'll avoid being no-hit. As much fun as it's been watching the scrappy underdog Yankees scratch out runs and wins, I'm about ready for the actual Yankees to come back. There is close to zero chance they can continue having this much offensive success (sixth with 5.38 runs per game) with these players. The Yankees need the Yankees back.

4. Alright, so who goes when guys start getting healthy? I am very much a "worry about it when the time comes" person, but humor me for a second. This is how I think it shakes out, in rough chronological order:

• Tulowitzki returns: Thairo Estrada to Triple-A (to get regular at-bats)
• Andujar returns: Mike Ford to Triple-A
• Frazier returns: Mike Tauchman to Triple-A
• Stanton returns: Tyler Wade to Triple-A
• Hicks returns: Designate Cameron Maybin for assignment?

The Yankees have so many up-and-down types on the roster that they could get those five guys back and still keep Gio Urshela around. I don't think keeping Urshela over Maybin is as obvious as it may seem given their small sample performances -- isn't it possible the Yankees will need the outfield depth more going forward since Estrada, Wade, and Brad Miller will be in Triple-A? -- but keeping Gio is probably the way to go, especially with Andujar's shoulder situation. Ultimately, this is all a hypothetical. Not everyone will return when expected (especially with the way things have gone this year) and new injuries will pop-up. I'm just thinking out loud. In the perfect world scenario, the Yankees get those five dudes back reasonably soon, add much-needed length to the lineup, and force a Maybin/Urshela decision at some point.

5. Amazing how quickly Luke Voit went from afterthought pickup at the deadline to essential Yankee, isn't it? He's been incredible. Hitting .275/.392/.523 (146 wRC+) this year and .307/.399/.614 (172 wRC+) as a Yankee overall. One-hundred-and-fifty-one players have at least 250 plate appearances since last year's trade deadline. Voit's ranks:

• .307 AVG (14th)
• .399 OBP (12th)
• .614 SLG (fourth)
• 172 wRC+ (third)
• 22 HR (sixth)

The Yankees turned Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos into a top 10 hitter in baseball, basically. Voit's been a top 10 (top three, really) hitter since the trade and that happened. It's in the bank and it helped the Yankees win games. Even if the monster 2018 Luke Voit doesn't come back and the Yankees get 2019 Luke Voit going forward, holy cow that would be amazing. And you know what else? Voit is doing better against righties with big velocity too. They really gave him trouble last year. Here are his (small sample) numbers against 95+ mph fastballs from righties this year:

• .429 AVG (.154 last year and .236 MLB average)
• .929 SLG (.231 last year and .144 MLB average)
• .460 xwOBA (.377 last year and .309 MLB average)
• 29.0% whiffs-per-swing (45.5% last year and 24.9% MLB average)

No, Voit is not going to hit .429 and slug .929 against righty fastballs at 95 mph or better all year. No one does that. He does look more comfortable against velocity though, and more comfortable in the box in general. It's pretty amazing that, with the lineup crumbling around him, Voit has stood tall and been a monster producer these last few weeks. The guy has gone 14-for-38 (.368) with four homers in nine games since Aaron Judge got hurt. That is stepping up when your team needs you. Even if these numbers against big righty velocity drop, I've seen enough to be convinced Voit is legit. This dude is a bona fide middle of the order masher. What a pickup. Incredible.

6. Chad Green made his first appearance with Triple-A Scranton earlier this week (2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K) and he's already made one noticeable adjustment. Check out the placement of his hands (screen grabs via Max Wildstein):

Green has raised his hands up to his chest after previously placing them near his waist pretty much his entire big league career. When a pitcher changes his hand placement like that, it usually means something is out of sync mechanically. Here's what Green told Conor Foley about his new hand placement:

“I was doing a little too much with my front side earlier. Trying to make up for some (thing), or just like pulling off too early. ”Green said about why he moved his hands up. “This is just kind of a way to keep me on line better. That’s kind of the biggest thing is just that my direction is a little better with my  hands up there.” 

Sometimes when guys change their hand placement, it's because they're breaking their hands too late. That causes their arm to lag behind their lower half during their delivery, leading to all sorts of problems. Doesn't sound like that is the case with Green though. He's doing it stay more in-line with the plate. Green and Aaron Boone have indicated his issues are mechanical since Spring Training -- " I feel good (physically). Everybody goes through a point where they battle mechanics a little bit, but we’re at a point where we have to fight through that and still perform to get guys out. I’m not doing that," Green told Kristie Ackert when he was sent down -- and the adjustment he's made to his hands is an indication they've either identified the problem, or are in a trial-and-error phase. They're not sending the same guy out to the mound in Triple-A and expecting different results. They're tinkering. I am certain the Yankees do not want to keep Green in Scranton long. I don't think this is one of those "he's in Triple-A until someone gets hurt in the MLB bullpen" situations. Green's requisite ten days in the minors are up Saturday. I think the Yankees might have him make one (or two) more appearances with the RailRiders, then bring him right back up if they feel good about things. They're at their best when he's in the bullpen, not Joe Harvey or Stephen Tarpley, and I expect them to bring him back soon.

7. The Yankees promoted Deivi Garcia to Double-A Trenton earlier this week -- Garcia has not pitched for the Thunder yet but the move has been officially announced -- and the promotion came sooner than I expected. Maybe the Double-A injuries played a part in the early promotion (Nick Green, Nick Nelson, and Trevor Stephan are all on the injured list), but, if they did, they were likely only a small factor. Garcia is one of the organization's top prospects and they wouldn't change his development plan on the fly to cover for injuries. They'd plug those rotation needs another way if they didn't consider Garcia ready for the next level. Remember, Deivi made a Double-A spot start at the end of last season and would've made a postseason start had they not been eliminated before his turn came up. This will not be his Double-A debut. Anyway, Garcia has a 1.95 ERA (1.55 FIP) with 37.3% strikeouts and 8.8% walks in 46 High-A innings the last two years, including a 45.2% strikeout rate this year. He's a fascinating pitching prospect because he's on the short side (his official height went from 5-foot-10 last year to 5-foot-9 this year) and has excellent stuff, most notably a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a hammer curveball with an exceptional spin rate. Manipulating the baseball comes easy to him. Garcia turns 20 in a few weeks and, at that age, I would normally say he's not a big league call-up candidate this year. The Yankees are moving him so aggressively though. Plus he's going to be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season, so he's going on the 40-man roster anyway. Would they really bring him in up in August or September? I mean, if they're fighting for a postseason spot or a division title, and think he can help, why not? For now, I think the perfect world scenario is Garcia tearing up Double-A these next few weeks and getting in a handful of Triple-A starts before the end of the season. That would set Deivi up for an early-ish big league debut next year. That said, the early promotion to Double-A means he's on the radar for a call-up this year. Likely? No. Possible? Absolutely.

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Going forward, I'm going to include a "Mailbag Question of the Week" in the weekly thoughts post. There is no way I'm going to do a full blown mailbag each week -- I know people loved the mailbag, but it was an absolute grind -- but one question in the thoughts post? Sure, why not. Let's see how it goes. Send your questions to the old RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com email address. Thanks.