Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 24 OCT 2023 - Netanyahu's Government is Self-Destructing

Editor's Note: The only charitable thing I can say after the last 24 hours is Tel Aviv has made Moscow look absolutely competent in the information and geopolitical space. If the Israeli government is still functional, more voices need to demand immediate changes. Netanyahu's War Council has done more damage to Israel on the world stage than its enemy's wildest dreams.

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern Israel

Hamas militants and other terror groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, conducted approximately 20 to 25 mortar, rocket, antitank weapons, and drone strikes from the Gaza Strip. The IDF engaged in a firefight with a group of Hamas militants that used diving gear to land on the beach at Zikim and attack the naval base. Nearby residents reported the sound of gunfire and illumination flares being used. Palestinian media claims that 15 Hamas militants were involved, and six were wounded. There were additional infiltration alarms at Zikim, Karmia, and Netiv Ha’asara, which were later determined to be false alarms. We cannot verify the casualty claims, but we consider the claims of fighting at Zikim confirmed.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and Northern Israel

Attacks by Lebanese Hezbollah and other terror and militant organizations continued to target Israeli electronic surveillance equipment, cameras, and radars while targeting IDF forward operating bases with harassment attacks. There continue to be no signs of a large build-up on the border by Hezbollah, which appears to have a mission objective of locking IDF forces in place.

The IDF and IAF carried out drone, artillery, and airstrikes on Hezbollah positions near Bar’am, Har Dov, and Shtula.

The West Bank

It was the calmest day on the West Bank since October 7. There were less than five clashes reported and only one protest. West Bank residents are more open to a two-state solution and the restoration of the 1967 borders, which may be responsible for the relative calm. In Burqa, an IDF unit was ambushed by small arms fire and IEDs, causing moderate injuries to one soldier. The al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade claimed responsibility for the ambush.

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes on Israel

There was a sharp increase in rocket attacks launched from the Gaza Strip, targeting Beersheba, Ein Hashlosha, Lod, Rehovot, Nes Ziona, Elkana, Alfei Menashe, and Sufa. Tel Aviv was targeted three times, with the largest rocket attacks in days repeatedly shutting down Ben Gurion Airport. The IDF reported that the settlements of Be’er Yaakov and Holon were hit.

From Lebanon, rockets were launched at the settlements of Elkosh and Netua near the Lebanon-Israel border.

Two rockets were fired from Syria into the Golan Heights, targeting Neot Golan, Bnei Yehuda, and/or Givat Yoav. The IDF reported both landed in unoccupied areas without causing damage. Israel responded with barrel artillery counterbattery.

The IDF reported it carried out 400 strikes against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, increasing operational tempo. The IDF claimed that one airstrike destroyed a tunnel entrance near the Gaza coast.

In our assessment, Israel is reaching the point where the continued bombing campaign is providing diminishing returns. A ground war in an urban environment is extremely complex. A ground war in urban rubble is even harder before factoring in the secure tunnel network under the feet of IDF troops. In modern warfare, U.S. and coalition battles in Fallujah, Iraq, and the Russian siege of Bakhmut, Ukraine, took months and caused heavy casualties with two different tactics. The U.S. took a more systematic approach, attempting to minimize casualties while Russia engaged in Soviet-era warfare. The continued destruction of swaths of Gaza is feeding into anti-Israeli narratives while creating a future battlefield that will be favorable for Hamas and the loose affiliation of militias and terrorist groups that would engage the IDF.

Middle East Region and Theaterwide

Chief of Staff of the IDF, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, said that the delay in launching a ground offensive on the Gaza Strip will start when a “decision with the political echelon regarding the shape and timing of the next stage” is made, adding that the delay is due to “tactical and even strategic considerations.”

Multiple stories ran in the press saying that there are rifts between Netanyahu and the Ministry of Defense of Israel and that privately, Israeli’s allies believe that the IDF is ill-prepared for a ground invasion of Gaza. Doing a root analysis, a lot of the talking points appear to come from Saudi Arabia-supported Vice News and Iranian state media. While we agree with the assessment that the IDF’s military readiness is shockingly degraded, the repeated “unnamed officials” and sometimes identical language indicate that major news outlets are failing to balance fact-checking and root analysis while reporting about war and being first. It is highly unlikely Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant are having significant disagreements. Many of Gallant’s public statements from October 7 to 10 were more extreme than Netanyahu’s, with multiple reports that Israel was asked to reign in the minister. We equally find it hard to believe that Netanyahu is suddenly calling for continued delays and a more careful military approach.

Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, is continuing a well-executed hybrid warfare campaign, making the United States responsible for the unrest through the region while portraying his nation as an innocent victim facing a direct war against Israel, supported by the U.S. Despite the rhetoric and the movement of hundreds of militants and terrorist through the region, Iran does not appear to have an appetite for a direct confrontation with the U.S. but is pushing Washington to the limits of its patience.

The Iranian-back Righteous Promise Brigade threatened to strike U.S. bases and interests in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates while not setting a redline.

Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance of Iraq claimed that since October 18, it has attacked U.S. bases in the region 15 times and took responsibility for the attack on the Ain al Asad airbase in Iraq. Prime Minister of Iraq, Mohammad Shia al Sudani, reportedly met with militant leaders in an attempt to have them end their strikes on U.S. bases and interests. Multiple grounds refused to attend the meeting.

United States CENTCOM reported that since October 18, 24 American soldiers have been wounded by missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq. A drone strike on the U.S. al-Tanf military base in southern Syria wounded twenty personnel. One drone was shot down, but the other struck, causing minor injuries with all personnel back on duty. Also, on October 18, four soldiers were wounded at the al-Asad base in western Iraq. The drone was shot down, but the debris destroyed a hangar containing an unspecified “small aircraft.” Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder said that the attacks were launched by groups backed by Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard. "What we are seeing is the prospect for more significant escalation against U.S. forces and personnel across the region in the very near term coming from Iranian proxy forces, and ultimately from Iran,” said Ryder, adding, “We always reserve the right to defend ourselves, and we will never hesitate to take action when needed to protect our forces and our interests overseas.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking to reporters in New York, responded to the continuing threats from Iran’s proxies, saying, “The United States does not want a war with Iran, but in the event of an attack on Americans in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone, we will respond."

Syrian state news agency SANA said that an Israeli airstrike near Daraa wounded eight Syrian soldiers and seven. The IDF did not comment but typically does not confirm or deny airstrikes within Syria.

The Wall Street Journal reported that officials in Saudi Arabia said they intercepted a cruise missile fired toward Israel last week by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Google announced it was temporarily suspending live traffic updates for Google Maps and Waze Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights. “As we have done previously in conflict situations and in response to the evolving situation in the region, we have temporarily disabled the ability to see live traffic conditions and busyness information out of consideration for the safety of local communities.”

Google took similar steps in Ukraine after Russia expanded its war of aggression in 2022.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

Recently released hostage Yocheved Lifshitz, 85, held a press conference at the hospital where she is being treated after her release. During the interview, she said that she “went through Hell” and described being beaten with sticks by Hamas, tied, and placed on the back of a motorcycle with her head dangling from one side and her feet from the other.

She then described being taken through an underground tunnel network, saying she walked “many kilometers” with 25 other hostages. She told reporters, “They told us they believe in the Qur’an and would not harm us, that they would give us the same conditions as they have in the tunnels.”

After several hours, she and four other hostages from Nir Oz were taken to a separate room where they were checked by “a medic and a doctor. She said the doctor arranged for them to receive medicines, adding, “the treatment towards us was good.”

When asked why, at her transfer to the Red Cross, she shook the hand of one of her captors, Lifshitz said she believed they treated her with “sensitivity.”

There is more information about the Lifshitz interview in the Israel and Hamas Politics section.

IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari thanks Egypt for its “key role” in securing the release of the hostages and for playing a “key role.”

He also emphasized that 222 people are still held hostage. “We are happy for their return, but at the same time, I want to mention that the husbands of Yocheved and Nurit are still being held captive by Hamas.”

The Israel Defense Forces claimed it dropped leaflets in the Gaza Strip asking Palestinians to provide Israel with information on the hostages held by the Hamas terror group. The sample leaflet said, “If you want a better future for you and your children, take action and provide us with solid and useful information as soon as possible regarding the hostages in your area…The Israeli army assures you that it will put forth maximum effort to provide you and your home with security, as well as a financial reward.”

Secretary of State Blinken, speaking at the U.N. Security Council, continued to declare Israel has a right to self-defense but called for more humanitarian aid and pauses in the fighting. “Palestinian civilians must be protected. That means Hamas must cease using them as human shields. It’s hard to think of an act of greater cynicism…It means Israel must take all possible precautions to avoid harm to civilians. It means food, water, medicine, and other essential humanitarian assistance must be able to flow into Gaza and to the people who need it. It means civilians must be able to get out of harm’s way. It means humanitarian pauses must be considered for these purposes.”

IDF Spokesman Hagari said that fuel would not enter Gaza, claiming Hamas would confiscate it. “Fuel will not enter the Gaza Strip. Hamas needs it for its operational infrastructure.”

In the last 24 hours, Doctors Without Borders, the World Health Organization, the Red Cross, the Red Crescent, the U.N., and UNWRA have appealed to allow fuel shipments.

ASSESSMENT: An embargo on fuel shipments during a war is murky under international law and the Geneva Convention. Electricity and fuel are not considered a necessity of life, with only nuclear plants and hydroelectric dams off-limits for attacks due to the risk of collateral damage. We feel firmly footed in this assessment based on our coverage of the Russia-Ukraine War. However, fuel and electricity are considered necessary to support non-military hospitals and other non-military critical infrastructure. Adding to the legal questions, Gaza’s only power plant runs on diesel fuel. The nuances of the law go beyond what can be assessed in this Situation Report and are outside of our scope of expertise. It is worth noting that many of these laws and amendments were created 40 to 70 years ago and couldn’t have foreseen the increased dependency on electricity in 21st-century society. We are steadfast in our belief that all nations have a fundamental right to self-defense. We are also steadfast in our belief that hospitals serving the needs of the civilian population are protected. One footnote: Hamas's rockets do not use diesel fuel for their propellant or its creation. 

U.S. President Joe Biden was asked about humanitarian aid for Gaza and if it was moving fast enough, Biden responded, “Not fast enough.”

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said no trucks had crossed the Rafah gate with humanitarian aid on Tuesday. From Saturday to Monday, approximately 60 trucks entered Gaza with water, food, and medical supplies.

The United States and Russia have proposed competing resolutions in the U.N. Security Council. Both resolutions seek to solve the humanitarian aid impasse and declare that food, water, medical supplies, and electricity need to be supplied to Gaza. Russia’s proposal calls for a permanent ceasefire, while the U.S. calls for pauses. If either measure is voted on, both nations will likely veto each other’s measures. As we had assessed last week, Russia’s ceasefire language, in their resolution that wasn’t advanced through the council, mirrors other attempts to freeze the Russia-Ukraine War.

Casualties

We no longer track Israeli or Palestinian casualty numbers due to serious questions about the veracity of reports from both combatants.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 38 nations reporting 228` of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 9 dead, 21 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 30 dead, 1 hostage, 6 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• India – 2 killed, 4 unaccounted
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 3 dead, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• The Netherlands – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 3 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Philippines - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 4 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead*, 2 hostages
• Russia - 19 dead, 7 missing, 2 hostages
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 30 dead, 19 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 19 dead, 7 missing
• United Kingdom – 10 dead, 6 unaccounted
• United States - 31 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Four Romanian nations died on October 7, with one identified as a dual-passport holder and a soldier in the IDF. We reduced the number in our tally to three.

Israeli-Hamas Politics

Former Hamas hostage Lifshitz, speaking in little more than a whisper, blasted the Israeli government for the October 7 attacks. “The lack of knowledge by the IDF and Shin Bet hurt us badly. We were the scapegoats.” She said that when residents brought up security concerns, “The IDF, somewhere, didn’t take it seriously. And suddenly, on Shabbat morning, when everything was quiet, there was very heavy shelling on the communities, and along with the shelling, the mob burst in – burst through the fence…opened the gate of the kibbutz and broke in en masse. It was very unpleasant, very hard. My memory keeps replaying those pictures.”

After criticizing the government’s response, the organizers of the press conference moved to end the interview. The Israeli government and supporters of the Netanyahu administration consider the interview a public relations disaster, painting Hamas in a favorable light while not addressing the over 1,000 civilians massacre and more than 220 taken hostage. Worse, the outrage is being expressed in public, with officials and pundits pointing fingers at each other.

ASSESSMENT: Israel’s destruction of the international goodwill it gained on October 7 in less than three weeks will be studied for decades. With Israel’s War Council having only three members, the architects of this internal crisis and geopolitical disaster are the direct fault of the council. Within the global information space, October 7 is all but forgotten. The blame for this lies with the Israeli government and its management of the information sphere. There is secondary blame on how badly the broader media has covered the war and its continued gaffes. For right or wrong, we’re not sure Israel can refocus the world on the horrors of October 7. Lost in all of this is Hamas’s 25,000-person-strong terrorist group with the proven capability to carry out military-grade exercises at a brigade level and the broad acknowledgment that the group needs to be destroyed. That’s being swept aside in a sea of near-Holocaust-grade denial. Netanyahu walked into a trap of his own making.

Geopolitics

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres enraged the Israeli government after he said, “It is important to also recognize the attacks by Hamas did not happen in a vacuum. The Palestinian people have been subjected to 56 years of suffocating occupation. They have seen their land steadily devoured by settlements and plagued by violence; their economy stifled, their people displaced, and their homes demolished. Their hopes for a political solution to their plight have been vanishing. The grievances of the Palestinian people cannot justify the appalling attacks by Hamas. And those appalling attacks cannot justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.”

Israeli ambassador to the U.N., Gilad Erdan, called Guterres’s comments “totally detached from the reality of our region…His comments… constitute a justification for terrorism and murder. It’s sad that a person with such views is the head of an organization that arose after the Holocaust.”

Foreign Minister of Israel Eli Cohen, who was at the U.N. with family members of kidnap victims, condemned Guterres, highlighting the massacre that occurred on October 7. “Mr. Secretary General, in what world do you live? Definitely, this is not our world.”

Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki, speaking before Cohen, slammed Israel. “The ongoing massacres being deliberately and systematically and savagely perpetrated by Israel — the occupying power against the Palestinian civilian population under illegal occupation — must be stopped.”

Secretary Blinken asked the U.N. Security Council why the October 7 massacres and kidnaps are all but forgotten. “It must be asked: Where’s the outrage? Where’s the revulsion? Where’s the rejection? Where’s the explicit condemnation of these horrors?”

The Foreign Ministry of Israel also expressed its “displeasure” with the Russian Federation and the role it is playing in propping up Hamas, expressing hope that Moscow would take a “more balanced” position. Tel Aviv chided Moscow for saying Israel is using “cruel methods.”

While the Foreign Ministry of Israel expressed its “displeasure” with Russia, ambassador Erdan announced that Israel would deny entry visas to all U.N. officials due to Guterres’s comments.

“We have already refused a visa for Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths,” Erdan said, adding, “The time has come to teach them a lesson.”

Editors’s Note: Yes, global powers are debating if Israel, Russia, or Hamas is crueler, and Tel Aviv is keeping this narrative in the public sphere. Israel’s anger at Guterres is justified, but blocking the U.N. officials managing the humanitarian side of the Israel-Hamas War is another geopolitics blunder. The closing sentence was a custom-made talking point for anti-Israeli propaganda. The political malfeasance is stunning.

Shortly after Erdan’s announcement, Secretary-General Guterres attempted to reframe his statement using the 21st Century diplomacy channel – Twitter, also known as X. “The grievances of the Palestinian people cannot justify the horrific attacks by Hamas. Those horrendous attacks cannot justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.”

Editor’s Note: Do you know why tonight’s report is so late? Because we keep rewriting it because there are so many political landmines thrown out today, we’re trying to thread a needle blindfolded riding a bison. Is no one able to read the room?

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas told Biden Administration officials that the Palestinian Authority would only consider returning to rule the Gaza Strip if it is part of a broader peace initiative, in an interview with the Times of Israel. Abbas claimed that the U.S. opened the dialog because Tel Aviv is “not currently focused on who will govern Gaza.”

During talks held on Tuesday, U.S. President Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed to restart the process of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia after the ongoing war ends. Biden and bin Salman “affirmed the importance of working toward a sustainable peace between Israelis and Palestinians as soon as the crisis subsides, building on the work that was already underway between Saudi Arabia and the United States over recent months,” the White House readout says.

Editor’s Note: I need a drink.