Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 23 OCT 2023 - Netanyahu's Government in Crisis

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern Israel

Hamas militants and other terror groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, conducted approximately 20 mortar, rocket, antitank weapons, and drone strikes. The IDF hinted there were incursions into Gaza, stating, “ infantry, artillery, and tank forces struck a number of Hamas terror cells in Gaza.” The word infantry implies that Israeli ground troops continue to operate in the Gaza Strip on a limited basis. The IDF also reported that the Hamas commander of the antitank guided missile units in northern Gaza, Ibrahim al-Sakher, was killed in an airstrike and, since October 7, had killed five Hamas aerial forces commanders. We cannot independently verify the claims.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and Northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah significantly increased the use of drones to strike Israeli electronic surveillance equipment and forward operating bases. Militants are focusing more on military targets, particularly in the Mount Dov and Sheeba Farms regions. Israel conducted counterbattery, executed two drone attacks, and launched several airstrikes on Hezbollah positions. In our assessment, these are likely harassment attacks, but the specific targeting of surveillance systems could be part of a broader operation.

The Syrian resistance organization SOHR claimed that several hundred Iranian-backed militants have crossed into Lebanon and are massed near the border.

The West Bank

Despite repeated calls from Hamas for Palestinians in the West Bank to join the war against Israel, the security situation remains stable. There were approximately ten skirmishes between the IDF and Palestinians aligned with Hamas or Iranian-back militias. The most significant clash was in Tulkarm when an IDF squad was ambushed by small arms fire and IEDs during a raid they were conducting. There was also a clash near Bethelem.

There was one significant protest in Tubas after the death of Omar Daraghmeh was reported. Daraghmeh was arrested last week and died in Israeli custody under what has been reported as “questionable circumstances.”

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes on Israel

There was a decline in rocket attacks launched from Gaza, with the border kibbutzes, Ashkelon, Beersheba, and Sderdot targeted. Drones launched from Gaza targeting Nir Oz and Ein HaBesor were intercepted.

In the north, rockets and drones targeted the critical port city of Haifa as well as Kfar Masaryk, Ein Hamifratz, and Acre. Two children were wounded in Kiryat Shmona.

The IDF reported that 320 targets were hit in the Gaza Strip over the previous 24 hours, stating they focused “on sites that could potentially endanger [Israeli] forces.” Palestinian government-controlled Wafa news claimed that the IAF carried out airstrikes near the Al-Shifa and Al-Quds hospitals in Gaza City.

Middle East Region and Theaterwide

While the situation in Gaza and Israel is somewhat stabilizing, Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are pushing to draw the United States into the war. Iran and its Axis of Resistance, supported by the Kremlin in the information space, have been framing the Israel-Hamas War as the Israel-United States-West versus all Arab nations war. Part of the narrative is reinforcing a message that Israel does not exist and is only a puppet of the United States.

The United States has reportedly sent “military advisors” to Israel, including Marine Corps Lieutenant General. James Glynn. Glynn was one of the commanders in Fallujah, Iraq is considered an expert in urban warfare and rules of engagement in an urban environment.

The Iran-backed Islamic Resistance of Iraq used kamikaze drones to attack U.S. forces in Syria, including the Al-Omar oil field in Deir el-Zour province and al-Shaddadi. Pictures that circulated on the Internet claiming to be from the strikes are misattributed. This was the fifth straight day of drone attacks from the terror organization. U.S. Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder confirmed there was an “attempted” drone strike, and no U.S. personnel were injured.

Minister of Foreign Affairs for Iran, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, continued indirect meetings with Hamas’s Political Bureau Chairman, Ismail Haniyeh, and the Secretary-General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al Nakhalah.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

Hamas released two more hostages, Israeli citizens Nurit Cooper, 79, and Yocheved Lifshitz, 85. Their husbands are still captives, with both families kidnapped from Nir Oz on October 7. Shortly after the October 7 invasion and attacks, Hamas officials denied that they kidnapped elders and children.

Prior to their release, IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that 222 people, including foreign nationals, are being held as hostages and that family members have been notified.

U.S. President Joe Biden suggested that an all-hostages-for-peace deal could be possible. “We should have those hostages released, and then we can talk,” when asked by the press. Israeli officials said such a deal would be possible but added that Hamas would need to agree to accept “unconditional surrender.”

The New York Times reported that their initial story of the bombing of the al-Ahli Hospital and successive edits did not meet their journalist standards, and Hamas officials were uncooperative with the attempts to investigate their claims. The Times requested to see debris and shrapnel from the claimed bomb strike, with senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad saying, “The missile has dissolved like salt in the water. It’s vaporized. Nothing is left.”

ASSESSMENT: As we had previously assessed and based on almost two years of using photos and videos to assess bomb and missile strikes in other conflicts, debris does not dissolve “like last in water.” Aerial bombs leave debris and shrapnel, particularly the tail section. A JDAM will also leave remains of its fold-out wing assemblies. In the case of the argument that an Iron Dome missile caused the blast, air defense missiles have fragmentation warheads that would leave telltale signs and send shrapnel over a wide area. Rocket bodies or their parts regularly survive. The odds are never zero, but there is less than a 1/10 of 1% chance that the debris simply “vaporized.”

After the story ran, Salama Maroof, the director of communications for Hamas, sent a text, saying, ”Who says we’re obligated to present the remnants of every rocket that kills our people? In general, you can come and research and confirm for yourself from the evidence we possess.”

Hamad and Maroof also refused to verify the 471 dead claim “on the record.”

The New York Times updated their story again, adding an editor’s note. “Editors should have taken more care with the initial presentation and been more explicit about what information could be verified. The initial reports relied too heavily on claims by Hamas and did not make clear that those claims could not immediately be verified.”

ASSESSMENT: We stand by our analyst team’s assessment that the most likely cause was a missile that malfunctioned for unknown reasons and crashed in the parking lot, igniting its remaining fuel and setting adjacent cars on fire. We also maintain our assessment that the IDF’s radar tracks shared after the incident are plausible. Finally, we maintain that the only way to determine the munition that caused the blast conclusively is through an onsite inspection. Regrettably, this would be fruitless now, as Hamas officials confirmed they contaminated the site. We also stand by the editorial decision to stop reporting casualty numbers from both combatants after this incident.

Another 14 trucks carrying humanitarian aid crossed from Rafah into the Gaza Strip, marking the third day in a row of deliveries. However, the amount of aid being sent through is only meeting 15% to 20% of the needs of Gazan civilians.

The Gaza director of the United Nations Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), Thomas White, warned that there were only three days of fuel remaining. Without additional fuel, aid distribution will stop when U.N. and Red Cross vehicles run out.

Hospitals in Gaza are also struggling to remain open, with several reporting they have run out of fuel.

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, reported that his nation was sending an additional $24 million in humanitarian aid for Gazans. “We need a constant stream of aid pouring in, bringing the water, food, medicine, and fuel that is so desperately needed.”

Casualties

We no longer track Israeli or Palestinian casualty numbers due to serious questions about the veracity of reports from both combatants.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 38 nations reporting 226 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 9 dead, 21 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 30 dead, 1 hostage, 6 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• India – 2 killed, 4 unaccounted
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 2 dead, 1 unaccounted, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• The Netherlands – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 3 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Philippines - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 4 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead*, 2 hostages
• Russia - 19 dead, 7 missing, 2 hostages
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 30 dead, 19 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 18 dead, 8 missing
• United Kingdom – 10 dead, 6 unaccounted
• United States - 31 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Four Romanian nations died on October 7, with one identified as a dual-passport holder and a soldier in the IDF. We reduced the number in our tally to three.

Israeli-Hamas Politics

National Security Minister of Israel, Itamar Ben Gvir, a member of the nationalist Otzma Yehudit Party, demanded that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu add more people to the three-person war cabinet who aren’t from the Likud or National Unity parties. “As a member of the coalition, a senior minister in the government, and a member of the cabinet, I accepted your unilateral decision on the composition of the ‘restricted cabinet’ which does not include me — the national security minister. I do not intend to confront you on the matter despite the fact that it is appropriate that the position of the huge number of voters who put their trust in us and asked us to represent them should be heard in the limited cabinet. I hereby demand that a member or even an observer be added to the cabinet.”

Trust in the Israeli government was already at near historic lows, with a new poll by the Israel Democracy Institute indicating that the Netanyahu administration is facing a deepening internal crisis. Only 20.5% of Jewish Israelis and 7.5% of Arab Israelis responded that they have trust in Netanyahu’s government in a poll conducted after October 7.

ASSESSMENT: The poll numbers are even worse than they appear. In political polls, you have a 5% to 10% fringe on both ends of the spectrum. There will be people who will not support a politician or administration no matter what they do, and there will be people who will support them – no matter what they do. Arab Israeli support is deep into the “no matter what” range, indicating that trust in Netanyahu’s government is effectively zero. Among Israel’s, 10.5% support indicates that if Netanyahu weren’t a war leader, he would be politically dead. There’s another problem that Israel will face with a crisis of trust in its government institution. In a protracted war, morale among the public will collapse if there is not a quick victory or if civilians have to make significant sacrifices for the good of the nation. Israelis are rallying around their flag, as we previously assessed, not around Netanyahu.

Leader of the Shas Party, Aryeh Deri, told his political faction in a speech that the delayed start of the ground invasion into Gaza is the fault of low readiness among the IDF and not due to internal or external political pressure. Deri, who is an observer of the three-person War Cabinet, said, “You can’t just go in at a moment’s notice. I can’t divulge all the details, but it’s not like the army is ready.”

Geopolitics

Foreign Minister of Israel Eli Cohen will address the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday and is reportedly accompanied by Israeli families with kidnapped relatives, who will meet with U.N. officials. Cohen is expected to meet with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres during his trip. The United States is expected to present a resolution to the U.N. Security Council for ratification that builds on the vetoed document from last week, adding language that Israel has a fundamental right to self-defense.

Leaders from the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the U.K. issued a joint statement supporting Israel’s right to self-defense against Hamas while calling for Israel to honor international law. “The leaders reiterated their support for Israel and its right to defend itself against terrorism and called for adherence to international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians.”