Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 14 OCT 2023 - Border, Evacuation, and Humanitarian Aid Confusion

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

In southern Israel, there were up to five skirmishes with small arms fire in Israeli territory near the Gaza Strip. Hamas and Israeli officials reported a clash near Khan Younis, with one Israeli civilian injured by an antitank weapon. We consider this claim of fighting verified since both combatants provided similar reports but cannot verify the number of casualties. The IDF claims that two militants were killed near Nahal Oz by direct tank fire during an infiltration attempt. A mortar attack on the settlement of Nirim wounded four civilians, including one critically. The IDF also reported that it eliminated a group of militants that used a tunnel to advance into the Jabalya and Zaytun areas. Hamas told Reuters-Thompson that three militants were killed by an Israeli Air Force strike after blowing up a section of the Gaza border fence.

Off the coast of Ashkelon, the Israeli Defense Forces Navy engaged with Hamas militant gunboats, 📺 destroying at least one vessel. The video also shows IDF forces shooting and throwing grenades at survivors in the water. We don’t have an international law for naval warfare experts on speed dial, but according to the United States Navy Commander’s Handbook on the Law of Naval Operations (NWP 1-14M MAR 2022), the shooting of survivors in the water is a “reportable offense.”

Editor’s Note: We are not qualified nor have access to anyone qualified to explain in detail maritime law and cannot provide any additional information beyond what the handbook clearly states.

The IDF claims that the militants were swimming to shore to carry out planned terrorist activities when they reached the coastline.

Editor’s Note: We do not make the news; we report it. Just because we reported it doesn't mean we agree or disagree with it.

In the north, the IDF released a video claiming to have 📺 killed a three-member DRG squad attempting to cross the border using a drone. In the Mount Dov region, Israeli officials and Hezbollah reported fighting. Hezbollah struck Israeli military positions with mortars and antitank weapons, and Israel responded with direct tank fire and artillery strikes. We consider this claim of fighting verified since both combatants provided similar reports. The mayor of the Lebanon settlement of Shebaa claimed two civilians were killed by Israeli counterbattery fire.

In the West Bank, the IDF reported that 280 Palestinians had been arrested since October 7, including 157 “affiliated” with Hamas. There was a significant decrease in conflict compared to October 13’s “day of rage.” While Hamas, Hezbollah, Iranian officials, and other organizations have called for militants in the West Bank to join in the war against Israel, there were only 12 combat clashes on Saturday. Palestinian officials claim that Israeli forces have killed 54 Palestinians in the West Bank since the start of the war. The IDF confirmed there was a fratricide incident between two squads in the West Bank. Soldiers in a vehicle were being pelted by rocks when a second unit was asked for support. There was a communications breakdown, and when the second vehicle appeared with armed men, the first group thought they were militants and open fired. One IDF soldier was killed. We consider this claim verified.

The number of rocket barrages from Hamas declined again, with rocket strikes in the settlement of Bat Yam near Ashkelon. A school and homes were also hit in Sderot.

The IDF reported that two rockets were launched at northern Israel from Syria, with both missiles striking open territory, causing no damage or injuries. A government-controlled Syrian news agency reported the airport in Aleppo was heavily bombed for a second time, knocking the field out of service due to significant damage to the runway. Israel has a long-standing official policy of not confirming or denying missile attacks and airstrikes in Syria.

The United States Department of Defense confirmed that the Dwight D Eisenhower aircraft carrier group was being repositioned to the Eastern Mediterranean. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said, “as part of our effort to deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas’s attack on Israel.”

Hamas officials published messages stating they had a comprehensive plan for an Israeli ground attack in the Gaza Strip and were prepared with an extensive arsenal of weapons. Hamas has had 16 years to develop tunnels, bunkers, and defensive networks within Gaza and likely has well-established, hardened multi-echelon defensive structures that are concrete reinforced. It is estimated that Hamas has built 450 to 500 kilometers of tunnels under Gaza.

The deadline for Palestinians to evacuate has passed. At the time of publication, there were no indications that Israel had started setting conditions for large-scale ground operations in Gaza. The weather conditions are unfavorable for drone operations and close air support (CAS), which may be part of the reason for the delay. It is also possible that Tel Aviv has quietly yielded to pressure from multiple countries, the United Nations and the European Union, to give more time for civilian evacuations.

Multiple nations and the U.N. have warned that Hezbollah is preparing to expand the war against Israel. While there have been significant troop and equipment movements and harassing attacks, there are no indications that Hezbollah has started setting conditions and shaping the border to enter the theater of war as a full-scale combatant.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

Hamas is claiming that Israeli air strikes killed 13 hostages on Friday and nine more hostages on Saturday. Israeli officials dismissed the claims, saying they have their own intelligence. It’s estimated that 130 to 200 Israeli civilians and almost 100 IDF soldiers and Israeli police. It is unclear if that number includes the dozens of foreign nationals reported as hostages by multiple countries. Israeli officials stated they were not engaged in negotiations for the release of any hostages, with National Security Council Head Tzachi Hanegbi stating, “Israel will not hold negotiations with an enemy that we have vowed to wipe from the face of the Earth.” The Israeli government liaison for hostages, Gal Hirsch, has faced increasing criticism from family members frustrated by the slow trickle of information about the missing and confirmation on who is being held hostage.

Ronen Tzur, head of The Families Headquarters, told reporters that if the Israeli government will not negotiate, then the government has practically abandoned the captives. Officials with Hamas said they would not release any hostages until the end of the fighting, regardless of negotiations.

Officials at Gaza City’s Al-Shifa Hospital said it was receiving “hundreds” of wounded people a day and could not comply with the IDF order to evacuate the facility. Officials added that water is “scarce,” and 95% of medical supplies have been used. Hospital director Mohammed Abu Selmia claimed up to 40,000 civilians have crowded around the green space around the hospital to be shielded from Israeli air strikes. Doctors without Borders, the World Health Organization, and the United Nations have reported that the medical system within Gaza is on the brink of collapse.

The WHO condemned Israeli demands to evacuate 22 medical facilities currently caring for over 2,000 patients as impossible and a “death sentence” for some. “The forced evacuation of patients and health workers will further worsen the current humanitarian and public health catastrophe.”

Medium-resolution satellite images and drone video show that unknown parties have established roadblocks on evacuation routes used by Palestinians in Gaza, causing massive traffic jams. Hamas officials have asked civilians to ignore evacuation orders from the IDF, and there were reports from October 13 of gunmen preventing people from leaving some buildings. The United Nations estimated that 400,000 people, about 37% of the population of northern Gaza, have relocated.

The IDF released a video that has been geolocated, showing a 📺 Hamas firebase in a civilian neighborhood launching rockets into Israel. The base was hit with a precision munition with proportional power. It is unclear if civilians remained in the adjacent homes or if there were casualties. Combatants are obligated not to use civilians or civilian infrastructure as military installations.

On Friday, during a press conference in China, the European Union’s High Representative Josep Borrell said that Israel’s blockade violates international law. “Creating a blockage on water, food, fuel, and medical supplies is not in accordance with the international law. Yes, there is a deep worry about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, in particular, due to the shortage of water, food and medical supplies, fuel and electricity.”

Egypt is reportedly keeping the Rafah border crossing at Gaza closed and is refusing to open it until an agreement to provide humanitarian aid of food, water, and medicine is reached, but there is conflicting information from officials and news sources. New video from the Gaza side of the crossing shows that the Hamas claims that the 📺 checkpoint was destroyed by Israeli bombing is false. Hundreds of foreign nationals and dual passport holders are waiting at the checkpoint.

The WHO reported that enough medical supplies to treat 1,200 trauma patients, 1,500 cardiac patients, and 300,000 general and acute care patients are stuck at the Egyptian border. On October 9, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who agreed to a WHO request to facilitate the delivery of health and other humanitarian supplies through the Rafah crossing. The WHO reported that while the Egyptian side is open to transporting medical supplies, the Gaza side is not.

On October 14, speaking from Qatar, the president of Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, praised Egypt for keeping the border closed. “There will be no migration from the West Bank or Gaza, nor from Gaza to Egypt, and I salute the brothers in Egypt. I say to my brothers in Egypt that we intend to remain in our land, and your position is the same as our own.”

Two hours before praising the border closure, Haniyeh allegedly sent a letter to U.N. General Secretary Antonio Guterres, calling the blockade a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention, adding, “the siege on defenseless civilians in Gaza by preventing the entry of the basic needs of the population, including medical supplies, food, and fuel.” We caveat this with allegedly as the official Hamas site does not include the text of the letter, which would be normal diplomatic protocol. We cannot verify if a letter was sent or the contents of the letter.

ASSESSMENT: The mixed messages from Haniyeh are intentional to create confusion in the information space while catering messages to specific audiences. Hamas leaders are signaling that Israel is the singular aggressor while reportedly keeping their side of the Rafah border closed, praising Egypt’s blocking of the crossing, while calling the lack of humanitarian aid a war crime. In the case of medical supplies, the WHO has indicated that the materials are available now, and Egypt has agreed to allow its passage, but Hamas will not let them into the Gaza Strip. Confused? That’s the intent.

The United Nations reported that the supply of drinking water was running low, while U.S. officials signaled that Israel was prepared to permit food, water, and medicine into Gaza but not fuel. The reported capitulation is due to the acceptance by Tel Aviv that the necessities of life cannot be blockaded. It is yet to be seen if Israel has actually agreed to lift part of the blockade or not, and it is equally unclear if Hamas will permit humanitarian aid to enter Gaza if Tel Aviv capitulates.

The IDF said it was “very sorry” for the death of Reuters-Thompson journalist Isaam Abdallah, who was killed by direct tank fire in Lebanon on Friday. Abdallah and a group of other reporters were in the area of, but not reporting from, or filming a Hezbollah firebase when they came under fire while broadcasting live. The IDF has not taken responsibility for the incident and said an investigation was ongoing.

Casualties

We cannot independently verify claims made by either combatant and are reporting from publicly available government sources. In war, all combatants underreport their military causalities, overreport their enemy's military casualties, and overreport civilian causalities. All numbers should be considered unverified. Additionally, organizations such as the United Nations and Red Cross only report casualty numbers after a rigorous investigative process. Because of the requirements, the numbers reported are vastly lower than reality. Thank you for your understanding.

Israel: Officials announced that the death toll surpasses 1,500 with 3,621 wounded, including 358 still in hospital from the October 7 attacks. Among the dead are 279 members of the IDF, with 14 killed on October 13.

Hamas/Gaza: The Gaza Health Ministry reported that 2,215 Palestinians had been killed and 8,714 wounded. There have been no official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs/State Department from other nations on dead, wounded, or missing citizens. Hamas and Gaza officials have not released any casualty numbers among militants, but the IDF claimed that the bodies of almost 1,500 militants have been recovered in Israel, mostly during the first 48 hours after the October 7 attacks.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 35 nations reporting 174 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 7 dead, 15 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 2 dead (decrease), 2 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 2 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 4 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Chile - 1 dead (reduction), 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 17 dead, 15 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy - 3 hostages
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 2 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Philippines - 3 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 1 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Russia - 16 dead, 8 missing, 1 hostage
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 24 dead, 16 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 12 dead, 8 missing
• United Kingdom - 7 dead, 17 unaccounted (per BBC)
• United States - 29 dead, undetermined number of missing and hostages
• Uzbekistan – 2 dead

Some of the unaccounted were within Gaza visiting family when the hostilities started.

Israeli Politics

The ruling Likud party reported that Yisrael Beytenu Opposition Party leader Avigdor Liberman was joining the emergency war government and its security cabinet. In a sharp rebuke, Liberman denied the claim and blasted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He rejected the offer to join the war government because he was not offered a seat on the War Cabinet, which currently has only four members. Liberman is a former defense minister and a bitter opponent of Netanyahu after a 2019 split.

At the time of the first report that Liberman was joining the emergency war government, opposition leader Yaid Lapid remained steadfast in his position that he would not participate until ultranationalist ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are removed.

Anger directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu and a loss of confidence in his ability to govern is growing among the Israeli people. In our assessment, had Hamas launched a smaller series of terrorist attacks instead of a military-grade operation, the backlash would have likely toppled the Netanyahu administration. Even if the war drags out for weeks or months, it is unlikely that he will survive, politically speaking, in the long term. Unlike Ukraine, whose people rallied around charismatic wartime leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the flag, Israelis are rallying around their nation but not their leaders.

Geopolitics

Iran has continued its rhetoric that it will attack Israel if it starts ground operations in Gaza and will attack the United States if the U.S. military becomes directly involved. Iraqi militants with Asaib Ahl al Haq have claimed they have entered Lebanon, as has the Popular Mobilization Front.

Saudi Arabia announced that talks to normalize relations with Israel have ended. On Friday, the foreign ministry released a statement stating its “categorical rejection of calls for the forced displacement of the Palestinian people from Gaza, and its condemnation of the continued targeting of defenseless civilians there.”

After spending exactly two minutes in session on Friday, congressmembers of the United States House left D.C. for the weekend with no significant progress on naming a new Speaker. On the record, Republicans indicated there was unity for Jim Jordan (R-OH), while off the record, multiple lawmakers said he had no chance of being elected.