Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 12 AUG 2023 23:59* - Russian Sources Claim - Breach!

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This is Report 465, which is 51 pages. The balance of power is starting to tip, and while we are still are concerned that Ukrainian forces cannot turn operational success and tactical gains into strategic victory, the battlefield situation has improved significant over the last five days.

What's the big story? Russian sources are claiming that Ukrainian forces have breached the first echelon of the Surovikin Line and armor has returned to the fight, making the situation in Robotyne "very difficult."

What's the second story? Russian forces are suffering catastrophic losses in Urozhaine as Ukrainian forces close in from three directions and hold fire control on the only way out.

Bonus story? There has been a significant increase in Ukrainian close air support mission using JDAM-ER glide bombs and like DPICM introduced two weeks ago, they are shifting the balance of power.

Summary

•  Ukrainian forces have stabilized defensive lines from Lyman Pershito Pershotravneve as the intensity of Russian attacks starts to drop
•  Ukrainian forces have retaken the battlefield initiative in the Svatove area of operation (AO)
•  Russian forces have concentrated their combat potential on Bilohorivka [Luhansk]
•  The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian forces were on the offensive near the tactically important settlement of Yakovlivka
•  The Ukrainian Air Force is either taking more calculated risks or has established air parity in the Bakhmut AO and Lyubymivka-Staromlynivka Operational Direction (DO)
•  Fighting continued in Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka, with Russian forces making marginal gains in Andriivka
•  The operational tempo remains low in the Avdiivka and Marinka AOs
•  Ukrainian forces control most of Urozhaine, with Russian sources reporting that Russian troops withdrew under fire
•  Chechen Kadyrovites got into a gun battle with Russian troops in occupied Urzuf, resulting in Chechen OMON and civilians killed
•  Multiple Russian sources reported that Ukrainian armored vehicles had entered the fight at Robotyne and breached the Russian minefields into the second echelon
•  Fighting was reported in Robotyne and in the direction of Verbove
•  A Russian convoy got into a motor vehicle accident near Pryazovske, struck a gas station, and caused a fire that closed the critical M-14 Highway ground line of communication
•  Insurgents reported that dozens of wounded Russian troops were brought to the civilian hospital in Melitopol as other military hospitals were filled to capacity
•  The Kerch (Crimean) Bridge was attacked twice by S-200 air defense missiles converted for ground attack without damaging the structure
•  Ukrainian sources claim the Russian bases at Yevpatoria were struck by drones resulting in dozens of Russian casualties
•  The Chongar Bridge is more severely damaged than first reported by Russian authorities and will take another four to eight weeks to repair
•  Civilian petrol shortages have spread from occupied Donetsk to occupied Crimea
•  Ukrainian border guards replaced the international border market on Zmiiny (Snake) Island
•  A Russian convoy in Radensk was destroyed with dead, wounded, and ammunition cooking off
•  A large Russian ammunition depot was destroyed in Oleshky
•  The last well-prepared Russian reserve units of Russian airborne (VDV) troops in occupied Kherson have been transferred to Zaporizhzhia
•  More pictures and videos from the Robotyne area suggest Ukrainian forces have advanced deeper than reported
•  A Russian ballistic missile struck Kryvyi Rih
•  A Russian reconnaissance unit tried to cross the international border near Znob-Novgorod
•  A Russian Su-30 crashed, killing both crew members in Kaliningrad
•  Gunfire and explosions reported near Krasnaya Yaruga in Belgorod were potentially a fratricide incident between Russian and Chechen troops
•  Russia launched five Shahed-136 kamikaze drones with three shot down
•  Inspections of Ukrainian military commissars at the regional level will continue through September, with 1,395 people facing conduct reviews
•  German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall will provide Ukraine with LUNA NG drones
•  There is an increase in the number of Russian deserters, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
•  In Crimea, a Russian soldier shot and killed his sergeant when he did not respond to an identification challenge

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