Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 23 JUNE 2023 19:45 PDT - Live Stream

And the lives of those who obeyed orders and resisted were sold down the river. It is absolutely bizarre. Are they going to get posthumous medals for countering a rebellion whose leader was granted immunity? I know, doublethink and all that, but still, you cannot make it up.

AnaR737

That was the thing that surprised me the most. The fact they could March nearly 800 km through Russia and nearly no one resisted them?

I cannot say I am surprised, nor can I say I predicted this (preliminary) outcome. I guess it is hard not to at least pay attention when a a thug at the head of 25K other armed thugs march on a nation's capital. That is NOT small potatoes, especially after they got to Rostov. I think in a situation like this, whatever doubts you have, you keep to yourself because what is happening is extremely serious and potentially volatile even if you suspect there could be a puppet master behind the whole thing. Here is a question: If it was a show, was it to test the reaction of the Russian populace? We saw citizens try to mount a defense when the partisans entered Belgorod. I did not see an upswell of defenders of what is, technically speaking, a legitimate government, which is what happened very recently in Peru, for example. The usual suspects like Kadyrov and Lukashenko don't count, because coming to Putin's aid is their only option.

AnaR737

Just wrote a long update based on listening to people smarter than us and what is being said in the Russian information space. The short answer - there is nothing in the deal that claims that a bunch of Wagnerites is heading to Belarus with Pirgozhin. This is being framed more and more as an exile.

Answer: they will get caught standing too close to a 6th story window🤣🤣🤣

I agree.

Maybe Russian culture is that none of that matters? It's bleak.

Ethan Stein

What will Prigozhin and his thugs do in Belarus? Open a restaurant chain? Keep plotting against Putin? Or maybe try their own march on Kyiv, go for the consolation prize of ruling Belarus - or all of the above?

I guess 7 aircrafts for 1 day is a lot, but otherwise doesn't even get close to loses they suffer in Ukraine each hour. So yes, this is quite inconsequential. Wagner would remain Wagner, they wanted out, they seemingly got out, without any loses so far. In my opinion, this was only reason for this show. Trust me, nothing would make me happier than moscow in fire under artillery barrage. But so far we got lifes of few fascist potentially in danger later... This is not a big deal, even if we know their names. If Prighozin is murdered this does not influence war they wage to Ukraine

It's okay. They've paid you money to claim that you have no idea what you're talking about.

Luke

While this might all be fizzling out now, it most definitely was a huge story and we don’t yet know all of the ramifications. Calling it a ”civil war”straight away, as opposed to a “mutiny”, was wish casting. But all the most informed commentators and serious media I read suggested that this was a BFD. And Putin is weakened by this. No criticism from me as to how Malcontent News handled this and they didn’t stray from the facts. Nobody knew how this would turn out but it was assessed very early on (eg by the ISW) that Prigozhin had likely significantly overplayed his hand and couldn’t succeed. But eminent journalists like Masha Gessen and Anne Applebaum both took this very seriously, with Gessen observing that real civil wars have started from far less credible origins than this had. Prigozhin has popular support it seems, but the army wasn’t with him. I was desperately hoping it would buy Ukraine a lot more time and advantages than it will. That’s very disappointing. That’s my wish casting. Turns out you can’t even trust Prigozhin to organize a successful suicide mission, even after all that practice in Bakhmut!

A refinery or at least the storage tanks are destroyed. 7 Russian aircraft were shot down, three very rare monitoring and EW aircraft 11 pilots/aircrew are dead, including a specialized crew in an Il-22 - 8 people. At least one bridge was blown up on M-4 Highway. Highways were dug up on the way to Moscow but Russian officials. Vast areas of Russia are still under CTO protocol with no deadline announced. At least two civilians were killed by army aviation. We knew from Belgorod that Russia couldn't defend its internal security and that's been exposed for a second time. Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus. No promises were made to any FSB border service guards, FSB, Ministry of Internal Affairs units, or Russian National Guard that did not follow orders that nothing will happen to them. Doesn't change Prigozhin's words that the entire war is based on a lie, nor his improved status among the Russian people. Putin is weaker from this - and a bevy of analysts far smarter than us are saying that. This is a strange definition of "nothing happened." If you claim to understand Russian culture so well, do you really believe in the days, weeks, and months to come that, there won't be a rash of depression, people falling out of windows, sudden illness, disappearances, and car bombs - at the minimum? A "deal" between Prigozhin and Putin is to be trusted? And what of Shoigu?

But honestly, Wagnerites did not do any damage. They got what they wanted - to remain Wagner in Belarus or something. No signing up for the ruzzki MOD. I am also completely baffled why you continue to make assessments on russian politics. Clearly you are not doing good. Where is civil war you wrote about for last day?

Quoting myself: 1. ​My prediction: nothing would change. Also, when do you think they’ll bomb Voronezh? :) 2. ​​nothing would change. Putin would change minister of defense and that’s that. That is all wagnerites want. They support putler. What are possible outcomes you think if wagnerites would march moscow?

Told it before. Saying it now. Malcontents have no grip on russian politics. There was no civil war. Big nothing burger with side of more nothing. Just another russian show westerners falling over to see

Thanks to the Malcontent News Team for giving us what truly was a first draft of history, in real time! What I want to know and haven’t seen any analysis of, is whether Prigozhin wants to end the war in Ukraine. He’s basically said it was started on false pretences and that it’s been a disaster. He must know that his actions undermine the Russian army and directly hurt their war effort. Prigozhin has only said that he wants to replace and punish the army leadership and then restore justice. Justice in the army? In Russia? Does he want Russian troops in Ukraine to join him and then what?

It’s quite possible that prigozhin doesn’t have to go to Moscow to bring down the leadership. By taking the area between and the military bases he really leaves the leadership in an untenable situation. And once he can get his message out to more Russians, he could end up with much more support

Can’t wait to hear what your question would be, this has been very informative thank you!

If you come back do you think Wagner made a deal with Ukraine, timing with bridge take out and Wagner in Rostov is suspicious

You just crashed