Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 23 JUN 2023 14:45 PDT - Russia Descends Into Civil War

"This is not a military coup. This is a march of justice. Our actions do not interfere with the troops in any way."

Private Military Company leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, June 23, 2023

Day 262 of the War in Ukraine, November 12, 2022.

"We assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing renewed unrest inside and outside the Kremlin. If there continue to be military failures, there is a remote chance Russia could face a regime change."

Russia-Ukraine War Situation Report for November 12, 2023

Executive Summary

Despite confusing messages from Russian state media, the documented actions of the Kremlin across multiple regions of Russia indicate that a civil war is imminent or has started within Russia. The scope and scale are unknown, and as of this writing, there are only unconfirmed reports of fighting between forces loyal to Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Federation.

What We Can Verify or Have High Confidence

On June 23, 2023, Private Military Company Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, supported by his senior commanders, which includes at least two former Russian generals, declared war on the Russian Ministry of Defense, starting a Civil War.

"PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council has made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word 'justice,' and we will bring it back. Those who today destroyed our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers, will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads. I’m asking everyone to remain calm. Do not succumb to provocations and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland. Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia."

Prigozhin claims that he has 25,000 that are armed and equipped as his main force and has deeper reserves. We had repeatedly assessed in the fall of 2022 that Prigozhin was building up to a 50,000-man army not loyal to the Kremlin or its leaders but loyal to the idea of a nationalist Russia and loyal to PMC Wagner.

"There are 25 thousand of us, and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country, everyone who wants to join. We must end this disgrace."

Prigozhin's statement followed a 30-minute video released about eight hours earlier that claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense had been actively working against the interests of the Russian people, that the justification to go to war in Ukraine was a lie, that the war was unwinnable from the start because the Russian army wasn't large enough, that the plan was to install Viktor Medvedchuk as a puppet leader of Ukraine so that Russian oligarchs, the FSB, and criminal elements within the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republic could rob and plunder all of Ukraine, and that claims that Ukrainian troops had targeted civilians in the occupied territories since 2014 were lies.

ASSESSMENT: In perfect 20/20 hindsight, this was the equivalent of breaking off diplomatic relations with the Kremlin before a formal declaration of war and justifying Prigozhin's case to lead a military action against what he believes are the enemies of the Russian Federation. One thing that Prigozhin did not do was blame Russian President Vladimir Putin, instead portraying him as a victim, the same as the Russian people and the ordinary Russian soldier, of sycophants and traitors.

Shortly after the war declaration, PMC Wagner and Russian sources, including a video shared by Yevgeny Prigozhin, claim that multiple PMC Wagner bases in the rear areas of Ukraine were attacked by Russian missile strikes.

Warning. Some viewers may find this content disturbing. Click here to watch the video - Telegram app is required to view content from Prigozhin's channel.

Prigozhin has been releasing multiple audio statements, one after the other.

PMC Wagner aligned Telegram Channel Gray Zone has come out in support, mostly, of Prigozhin's message, while Reserve Side of the Medal has only stated, "Friends, do not rush to conclusions or panic and escalate hysteria. No one has a complete picture to draw final conclusions. Don't participate in spreading panic. The enemy will only be happy about it."

Breaking: Telegram Channel Reverse Side of the Medal appears to have come out in support of the action, albeit weakly, writing, "If everything that Telegram channels write is true, in such a situation, ordinary citizens need to stay at home. Until everything is clear. PMC Wagner is definitely not the enemy of the fatherland!"

The Russian Ministry of Defense released a terse statement, claiming that any reports of Russian troops attacking PMC Wagner are fake. "All the messages and video footage spread on social networks on behalf of Yevgeny Prigozhin about the alleged “strike by the Russian Defense Ministry on the rear camps of PMC Wagner” do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to carry out combat missions on the line of contact with the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of ​​the special military operation."

The use of the words "informational provocation" is interesting. Prigozhin and his supporters, as well as Girkin's "Angry Patriot Club" and a growing number of Russian milbloggers with varying influence, have been pushing the boundaries of questioning the Russian Ministry of Defense's credibility. We've documented how some of this has spilled over onto Russian state media. The most recent example was the lack of official messaging from the RIA on the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam.

Influential Russian milblogger Yury Podolyak, with 2.8 million followers, wrote, "So far, according to the data that I have, no one is shooting at anyone and is not going to. At least, that's how everyone is at the moment. So far, everything seems to be that Yevgeny Prigozhin, pressed to the wall by Shoigu’s order, and finding no other way out, raised the stakes to the skies and, like the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry, is waiting for the decision of the Supreme, [President Vladimir Putin - Ed.] which, I’m sure, no one will dispute, as it is now TsIPSA did not escalate the situation in the hope of a civil war inside Russia. Well, it is clear that all this does not affect military operations in any way."

Russian milblogger German Kulikovsky appears to be more concerned over the statement, writing, "Brothers! Everyone who holds a weapon on the line of contact with the Khokhol [Khokhol is a Russian slur for Ukrainians - Ed.] remember. Your enemy is in the opposite direction; keep him at gunpoint, hit as you hit; Moscow will sort it out without us. There is nothing more important than Russia."

Russian milblogger Two Majors may have explained the current situation the writing, "Phrase of the evening, 'Nothing is clear.'"

During this writing, Russian propagandists and Kremlin-controlled Readovka have released a series of statements from the Kremlin that we're in the process of translating for verification, with the Russian State Media and the RIA addressing openly Prigozhin's declaration.

Dmitry Peskov has reportedly told reporters that Russian President Putin has been briefed on "the situation".

The Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee declared that the allegations spread "on behalf" of Prigozhin about the FSB have no basis. "In connection with these statements, the FSB of Russia initiated a criminal case on the fact of calling for an armed rebellion. We demand an immediate stop to illegal actions."

Shortly thereafter, the Russian state media agency Shot confirmed both statements, and the criminal case opened against Prigozhin was the lead story on the Russian language version of TASS.

SIDEBAR: Since the creation of the Russian Federation in 1994, only one person has been charged with "calling for an armed rebellion," former Russian Colonel Vladimir Kvachkov on December 22, 2009, in what is called "The Crossbow Coup." People charged with "calling for an armed rebellion" are tried in a closed court without a jury. Kvachkov was found guilty and was released from prison in February 2019.

ASSESSMENT: Prigozhin is a master of information warfare, which should always be remembered when reading and listening to his statements. The best disinformation is always rooted in truth. A good example of this is his claims of ammunition shortages in Bakhmut and his announced withdrawal from the front lines of Ukraine. With perfect 20/20 hindsight, his claims of ammunition shortages in May were unfounded, and we have documented the theaterwide shortage of antitank guided missiles, which was not a unique problem for Wagnerites. Prigozhin's claims of staffing shortages and his planned withdrawal from the front lines of Ukraine were accurate. The threat of being accused of treason, a claim he made on May 7, if they withdrew on May 10, was also likely accurate. This is why Prigozhin did a "good enough" job in Bakhmut to declare the mission accomplished, even though pedantically it wasn't. He completed his obligation and withdrew. We have repeatedly advised not to dismiss Prigozhin's statements at face value and have worked to find the truth between the lines. Prigozhin's goal right now is to create fear, uncertainty, and doubt. With the opening of the criminal case and Prigozhin now being "public enemy number one" within Russia, the world will soon learn if these were the desperate words of a cornered man ready to lose control of his Private Military Company, a looming failed Beerhall Putsch, or the start of a 1917 style revolution. The issue of Russian shootings at Russian involving thousands of people is a complex issue. The only military victory for Russia since July 3, 2023 (we are not counting the capture of 3.5 square kilometer Pisky as a Russian victory) has been Bakhmut - which was done by PMC Wagner, sort of. Additionally, with Russian State Media reporting the FSB has opened a case against Prigozhin for "calling for an armed rebellion," the claims by Prigozhin that PMC Wagner bases have been fired on have added weight.

Russian state media source Astra is claiming that SOBR forces, the equivalent of the United States Special Weapons and Tactics teams (SWAT) at the federal level, are being deployed to Belgorod.

Russian milbloggers were starting to criticize the reaction by the Kremlin in the information space, with Rybar sharing a statement by Two Majors, "Allow me to add, dear comrade Rybar. The current situation also shows how dependent some sectors of the Russian information sphere are on editorial policy. There is just silence because there are no clear commands from the true editorial owners. It is a pity that the funds allocated for all these information resources have not developed the ability to be independent."

ASSESSMENT: We have repeatedly documented how Russian state media is dependent on orders from the Russian Information Agency (RIA) and have become increasingly paralyzed by the so-called "don't say war" laws passed on September 21, 2022. Even if editors want to try to control the narrative, a misstep could result in criminal charges for editors and reporters. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam illustrated how the RIA is incapable of a rapid response through its channels to control the message. We have repeatedly documented how the RIA has flailed with messaging after Ukrainian strikes on Russian airbases and responding to war crime allegations.

The border crossing between the so-called Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and the Rostov region of Russia has been closed.

ASSESSMENT: Combined with the loss of the Chongar Bridge between Kherson and Crimea, this is going to have a rapidly growing impact on Russian troops' supply and logistics if it continues for more than a few hours.

In addition, streets within Rostov are now blocked by 📷 Russian military vehicles.

What We Cannot Verify or Have Low to Moderate Confidence

Everything past this point should be considered unverified or evolving information. The information space is understandably in complete chaos.

Russian Criminal Info, also known as VChk-OGPU, which has been a reliable source, has reported the following,

• SOBR, the equivalent of the United States Special Weapons and Tactics teams (SWAT), are being flown into Moscow from other regions
• In the Rostov region, the Ministry of Internal Affairs (the equivalent of the police) has been placed on high alert
• The "Plan Fortress" for Moscow has been activated
• Russian Special Operation Forces with the Rosgvardia have surrounded and are searching the Wagner Group Center in St. Petersburg
• The Kremlin has disabled some of its secure communication channels

The emergency plan in Moscow on how to respond to a rebellion includes deploying forces to protect critical infrastructure and government facilities, jamming and disabling of cellular communications, and restricting civilian movement and communications."

Despite Rybar's criticism of the Russian response, they are claiming the implementation of the "yellow danger mode" in Moscow was introduced on June 22 to search for Ukrainian sleeper cells within Moscow. Rybar is claiming that two cells of Ukrainian forces were captured by the FSB earlier in the week and gave up the entire underground network within Moscow.

ASSESSMENT: This is incredibly unlikely as one of the basic tenants of security with sleeper cells is they are unaware of the location, mission, and composition of other sleeper cells. Without an official narrative from Moscow (ironically), Rybar has fallen back to its usual position of any internal action within Russia - it isn't Russians; it is Ukrainians. While it is almost certain Ukrainian spies are operating in Moscow, and other parts of Russia, as Russian spies are operating in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine, Rybar's claim of a Ukrainian plot as the reason why Russia has responded with security measures is almost certainly false.

There are growing reports that the plan hasn't just been deployed in the Moscow region but the border oblasts of Ukraine and parts of southern Russia.

Just minutes after Prigozhin claimed that Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu was flown to Rostov-on-Don to lead Russian forces against the rebellion personally, Prigozhin then claimed that Shoigu left, saying, "Minister Shoigu cowardly fled from Rostov. At 21:00, he fled so as not to explain why he was raising helicopters to destroy the fighters [of PMC Wagner - Ed.] and why he was launching missile strikes. This bastard will be stopped."

Russian mercenary milblogger and rapidly becoming an unreliable source Rybar is claiming that multiple rear areas in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk are being shelled in one of the, if not the heaviest, activity since 2014.

A check on local VK and Telegram channels in the occupied Donetsk metro area doesn't support the claim. A video over the city of Luhansk shows an unidentified aircraft has been shot down. The video is inconsistent with a missile intercept.

Ukrainian source Bakhmut Demon, which historically has had mixed reliability, is claiming that Russian troops and PMC Wagner forces are fighting each other. Given the very public conflict between PMC Wagner and the Russian 72nd Brigade of the 3rd Army Corps, the claim has some weight.

"The remains of the Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads [ground lines of communication - Ed.] of the Russian Federation. Our assault brigades see everything, and meticulous strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians. The impression is that some of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is happening, it is a bloodbath."

ASSESSMENT: Whether this is true or not, Ukraine has a unique opportunity to spread additional misinformation and disinformation directed at Russian troops to create fear, uncertainty, and doubt about how is firing on their positions, creating distrust among military units with poor cohesion, and lack radio comms and coordination.

Jimmy Rushton, a British national in Kyiv, claimed in a tweet, "I just spoke to someone with contacts inside Wagner - he confirmed that this wasn't theatre and that Prigozhin is making a move. "It's not clear exactly what's happening right now, but it's not nothing."

Russian source Verstka reported that starting yesterday, Wagnerites had been calling relatives and loved ones saying "goodbye" and telling them to watch Rossiya 24 to see what they will have to say.

Reactions from Russian collaborators have been mixed. Vladimir Rogov is ignoring the situation, at least publicly, while Rodion Miroshnik appears to be panicking.

Russian milblogger Alexander Morozov (Murz) wrote in response to Prigozhin's earlier video, where he declared all the reasons Russia went to war with Ukraine a lie, "Video blogger Prigozhin retells LiveJournal Murza a year ago."

Former FSB Colonel and convicted war criminal Igor Strelkov Girkin first wrote, "If this is not a fake (it may be a fake), then a military mutiny has begun. But even if this is a fake, then the situation with the confrontation between the Russian Defense Ministry and Wagner has already gotten out of control and requires the immediate intervention of the president. If we still have it."

Girkin then shared a video clip of Swan Lake, writing, "It's time for calls from high offices. Perhaps the above story is a provocation. Internal turmoil is now capable of leading to a military catastrophe. Be true to the oath of a citizen of Russia. Be true to the oath of the Soviet army. Be true to the oath of the Russian army."

While the wording is vague and likely intentionally so, the linking to Swan Lake is a signal that Girkin believes this is, or is, calling for the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Since the age of television, when a Russian leader has died (or in the case of Nikita Khrushchev deposed in a bloodless coup). Swan Lake has played on repeat until an official message could be prepared. It also played during the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1994.