There have been so many events today, and the team is exhausted.
There was another missile and drone attack late today, and Ukrainian air defenses had a bad day - one of the worst since the attacks started more than a year ago. There is a lot to review and confirm. Poltava, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv all under review.
Ukraine had a successful Storm Shadow cruise missile strike at a significant location for Russian forces, and there are videos we're working on confirming and tr...
2023-06-10 07:39:16 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 406, which is 53 pages, a bullet report, combat only.
What's the big story? The economic, ecological, and humanitarian crisis that is unfolding due to the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam stretches from Odesa to Zaporizhzhia, to Sevastopol.
What's the seco...
2023-06-09 10:51:26 +0000 UTC
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That's it.
That's the whole message.
This isn't the main thrust but this has moved past probing attacks and recon in force.
2023-06-09 00:07:22 +0000 UTC
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On June 8, 2023, at 11:00 hours local time the Kakhovka Reservoir has dropped to 12.9 meters and continued to drop at rate of around 5 centimeters per hour. That would put the level at an estimated 12.4 meters. Plant operators were able to increase the cooling reservoir from 16 meters to 16.6 meters, leaving ZNPP with "several" months of cooling water.
2023-06-08 17:17:33 +0000 UTC
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The team is split 50/50 right now. We can confirm that some of the newly formed brigades have entered combat for the first time and we have high enough confidence to confirm Leopard 2 (there is a debate on whether A4, A6, or both due to the poor resolution from Russian drone video) in the Orikhiv Operational Area.
Almost all sources for fighting in the Zaporzhia Oblast are coming from Russia and some of the things they are reporting make sense. This was my favorite of the morning, "...
2023-06-08 16:10:09 +0000 UTC
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The team is dealing with an unprecedented amount of misinformation and disinformation, making it incredibly challenging to hold to our commitment of right over first. There were dozens of Russian reports over the last 6 to 8 hours of a major offensive kicked off by Ukraine in the Orikhiv Operational Area, and it appears that "this is the offensive" claims from Russian information sources.
The information space about the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam is also in uncharted territory. Thi...
2023-06-08 07:15:18 +0000 UTC
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Kakhovka Dam and Dnipro Watershed from Nova Kakhovka/Kakhovka to the Mouth of the Dnipro River
- As of 18:00 hours local time, the Kakhovka Reservoir had dropped 2.8 meters to 14.03 meters, approximately 2.1 meters below mean and nearing the record low of February 2023
- Outflow from the reservoir has slowed, with the depth dropping 5 to 7 centimeters per hour
- As of 23:11 hours local time, Ukrainian officials reported that flooding had not crested in Kherson, but t...
2023-06-07 23:01:28 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 404, which is 60 pages, a bullet report with a special report section, combat only.
Editor's Note: Thank you for a major milestone. In the podcast world, 20,000 downloads in a day is a magic number. That's the bottom of the A li...
2023-06-07 10:48:34 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 403, which is 51 pages, a bullet report, combat only!
Editor's Note: Thank you for all the well wishes. My daughter is home from the hospital.
What's the big story? The Kakhovka Dam has failed, and its collapse will r...
2023-06-06 10:03:54 +0000 UTC
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If any of our subscribers are a hydrologist by trade or know someone in their immediate circle that is a hydrologist, we have photos that could use analysis.
We don't have a hydrologist on speed dial.
tips@malcontentment.com
2023-06-06 05:08:28 +0000 UTC
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Overnight, the Nova Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River has completely destroyed. This level of damage could not have been accomplished by a missile strike but would have been done by massive amounts of explosives within the service tunnels and shafts within the dam.
This is a major crisis with the uncontrolled loss of control over the level of the Kakhovka Reservoir.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
The ability to access cooling water for the six reactors at t...
2023-06-06 02:44:21 +0000 UTC
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First, regarding some housekeeping, we are going back to bullet reports, likely combat only. In the coming days, I would expect multiple Situation Reports created as intelligence is confirmed.
Has the main part of the Ukrainian offensive started? The analyst team is divided, but right now, it is 75/25 - no.
Belgorod Operational Direction
We partially agree with the Free Russia Legion (FPL) announcement that they control Novaya Tavolzhanka. This is likely due...
2023-06-05 20:29:09 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 402, which is 61 pages.
Editor's Note: Thank you for all the well wishes. My daughter is still hospitalized but does not need surgical intervention.
What's the big story? Has Yevgeny Prigozhin cross a bridge too far? ...
2023-06-05 11:17:56 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 401, which is 47 pages, combat only.
Editor's Note: My daughter is unexpectedly hospitalized again due to complications from her surgery about three weeks ago. We have a third writer, Adam Irving, who started last week but isn't...
2023-06-04 10:44:58 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 400, which is 64 pages.
What's the big story? If you told us a year ago the biggest combat section would be about fighting in Russia for the second day in a row, and we had to break things up into Operational Directions...
What's the second story? Ther...
2023-06-03 12:14:15 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 399, which is 48 pages, combat only.
What's the big story? If you told us a year ago the biggest combat section would be about fighting in Russia...
What's the second story? Russia launched 15 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 21 Shahed-136 kamikaze dr...
2023-06-02 09:02:49 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 398, which is 56 pages.
What's the big story? Renewed fighting is ongoing on the Russian border southwest of Belgorod.
What's the second story? The fallout from Ukraine's drone attack on Moscow continues and a lot of geopolitics.
The Malcontent N...
2023-06-01 08:02:31 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 397, which is 61 pages.
What's the big story? Moscow was hit with a barrage of up to 32 kamikaze drones, and Kyiv was hit with 31.
What's the second story? Poor weather continues to slow down combat across Ukraine, but drier w...
2023-05-31 11:46:09 +0000 UTC
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Not a whole lot. We don't have a contact network in Russia as we do in Ukraine, so we're dependent on social intelligence, Russian state media, the handful of Western journalists still in Russia under the watchful eye of the RIA and FSB, and Kremlin spokespersons.
Officially, the Russian Ministry of Defense is claiming there were eight drones, all were shot down, and there were no injuries. This is a shift from the preliminary report of 13 drones, ten were shot down, three reached their...
2023-05-30 17:52:58 +0000 UTC
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Patriot Missile Systems Were Not Destroyed
We now have confirmation that the Russian reports were inaccurate.
Kyiv was targeted with 11 Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), and all 11 were shot down. The only systems capable of targeting SRBMs in Ukraine are SAMP/T and Patriot.
Missile debris from interceptors and downed Iskanders caused minor damage,
NASA Fire Information for Resource Management Systems (FIRMS) showed four thermal anomalies in rem...
2023-05-29 19:13:58 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 396, which is 43 pages combat only.
Reminder: It is a federal holiday in the United States and the team is going to take a day off. In the event of a major event or World War III, we'll keep you updated.
What's the big story? Another m...
2023-05-29 10:11:38 +0000 UTC
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In Star Wars, The Empire Strikes Back, Alexander Lando Calrissian Lukashenko is the administrator of the Potato Kingdom, aka Cloud City, which he allegedly won by gambling or a stolen election. Unbeknown to our heroes, the Galactic Russian Federation Empire showed up before they did, and Darth Putin, sorry, Darth Vader, kept "altering the terms of the bargain," with Calrissian declaring, "This deal keeps getting worse." In the end, he losses control of his thiefdom when Darth Vader decides to...
2023-05-29 01:25:24 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 395, which is 41 pages combat only.
What's the big story? Kyiv was targeted by at least 53 drones, and Ukraine with 54.
What's the second story? It was quiet through most of Ukraine with a lot of fog of war, while the Russia-Ukraine bord...
2023-05-28 09:49:11 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 394, which is 59 pages and is a full report. Don't get too excited, back to condensed reports tomorrow.
What's the big story? Ukrainian forces made significant gains on the north flank of Bakhmut - there are a lot of map updates.
What's the se...
2023-05-27 12:32:30 +0000 UTC
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We've been waiting for more information from Russian sources to support their claims that Bakhmut is fully captured.
We got the opposite.
The Ukrainian 93rd Brigade (aka the gods of war) posted a video of a DRG unit in Bakhmut west of Yuvileyna Street. Their car is parked near the block of apartments southeast of the Children's Hospital, 2023-05-26 19:23:51 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 394, which is 54 pages and is a full report. Don't get too excited, it was a very quiet day today.
What's the big story? Severe weather and a likely unofficial truce to support a POW exchange near Bakhmut limited fighting to just 22 clashes theaterw...
2023-05-26 10:17:29 +0000 UTC
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It's a very busy day!
Ivan Khurs
In the May 24, 2023 Situation Report, we linked to a Russian Ministry of Defense video showing the Russian surveillance ship Ivan Khurs being attacked by three surface drones. The video showed two drones intercepted with the claim the ship was undamaged. Our team accepted this at face value.
The Ivan Khurs is missing, and it has not shown up at any Russian port (we have good intel in Sevastopol, as long-time readers/listeners know). A Unite...
2023-05-25 21:36:10 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 393, which is 60 pages.
What's the big story? Russian forces have significantly scaled back offensive operations, indicating they are waiting for Ukraine's next move.
What's the second story? Yevgeny Prigozin really meant it - PMC Wagner is starting to...
2023-05-25 09:20:17 +0000 UTC
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Update: There was an editing artifact on page 22 with a cutoff quote from Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar. Maliar's full quote is on page 24, and the bullet on page 22 should not have been in the report. An updated version of the May 23, 2023 Situation Report is attached, with the editing artifact removed. There are no other edits to the report, and this is not a "B" report with additional sections. There will also be an errors and omissions
2023-05-24 09:06:10 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 391, which is 46 pages, combat only, and in a condensed format.
Important: Until further notice, we are moving to a condensed format for Situation Reports due to increasing activity in support of the looming Ukrainian offensive....
2023-05-23 10:35:10 +0000 UTC
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