Both power connections, the 330 kV backup, and 750 kV primary, have been disconnected due to Russia's missile attack.
Reactors 5 and 6 were safely brought to a cold shutdown, which cut off the heat and hot water supply to Enerhodar. The facility is currently powered by 18 emergency diesel generators. Energoatom reports there is a ten-day supply of diesel fuel at the station.
It would be very risky, given the state of the plant due to non-use for months, to bring reactors to a low-...
2023-03-09 05:36:10 +0000 UTC
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Russia launched a missile attack on Ukraine so today's report will be combat only. It appears that there was extensive use of misinformation and disinformation to activate automated attack reporting bots on Telegram and Twitter, decoys, balloons, and electronic warfare.
As of this posting, we have no evidence that any Kalibr missiles were launched by the Black Sea Fleet. We can tentatively verify that an energy facility was hit in the Odesa area. Reports that cruise missiles flew ...
2023-03-09 03:10:53 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 320 and is 54 pages.
What's the big story? Bakhmut stands, and Ukrainian forces push Russian troops back south of Ivanske.
The second story? Russia's eroding influence on the world stage is exposed in Georgia.
The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for yesterday is available on:
Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 319 and is 59 pages.
What's the big story? Bakhmut stands, and an executed Ukrainian POW has become a new symbol of resistance.
The second story? Is Russia's wide-scale late winter offensive coming to an end?
The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for yesterday is available on:
2023-03-07 12:35:26 +0000 UTC
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A video has emerged of a single Ukrainian POW, smoking a cigarette and standing in what appears to be a hastily dug and inadequately shallow grave, shouting, "Slava Ukrani," before being executed in a hail of gunfire. His Russian executioners call him a "bitch."
We will include a link to the unedited video in the Situation Report. Ukrainian officials have verified the authenticity of the video, which started circulating on Russian channels and is being celebrated in those circles.
2023-03-06 22:05:49 +0000 UTC
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Our assessment from March 3 continues to age well. There is strong evidence that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Zabakhmutka District to the west bank of the Bakhmutkova River. The map will be updated shortly.
In our assessment, this is one of the last moves on the Bakhmut chessboard for Ukrainian forces. If Russian troops breach the river and enter the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine will (and should) withdraw from the city. It is important to note that Russian forces have never successf...
2023-03-06 21:39:30 +0000 UTC
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Tis is report 318 and is 41 pages.
The big story? Bakhmut holds.
The second story? The in fighting between PMC Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense has exploded.
2023-03-06 09:33:13 +0000 UTC
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No changes in Bakhmut and reports that the T-506 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) is severed are untrue. It's definitely spicy but still usable. There have been no appreciable changes in territorial control.
Is it because Ukraine keeps bringing in fresh troops?
Is it because Russia is exhausting its combat potential?
Is it because mud is slowing down offensive operations?
Is it because Russia is in an operational pause to consolidate a new offensive push?
Is i...
2023-03-05 22:04:25 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 317 and is 68 pages. Today's SITREP is a full report and a catch-up for our non-combat sections - enjoy 7,175 words. Improving weather has enabled us to include satellite images and leverage NASA FIRMS data. We were able to provide some deep analysis based on the added data points.
What's the big story?...
2023-03-05 12:32:26 +0000 UTC
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...at least at the time we published today's SITREP.
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This is Report 316 and is 49 pages - combat only.
What's the big story? A lot of fog of war is clouding the situation in Bakhmut. We talked to Ukrainian contacts and journalists on the ground and pored over pictures and videos, satellite images, and circumstantial evidence p...
2023-03-04 12:43:36 +0000 UTC
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To quote the Green Mile, "I'm tired, boss. Dog tired."
If you follow our Twitter or TikTok, you know there was a superhuman effort made to accurately determine who was behind the Bryansk border raids, their connections to Ukraine and Russia, and the likely motivation.
If Russian President Vladimir Putin unintentionally declared the incident a "terrorist attack," it turned out he was accurate.
A little bit of an epilogue to our work overnight. There are members of the Russian...
2023-03-03 02:51:02 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 315 and is 43 pages - combat only.
What's the big story? Russia accused Ukraine of launching two cross-border attacks on villages in the Bryansk federal district. On the surface, it looks like this was a staged event, but we did some digging based on our past research on the connection of white nationalists in the Uni...
2023-03-02 13:50:03 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 315 and is 45 pages - combat only.
What's the big story? The situation in Bakhmut is becoming critical.
The second story? Multiple drone strikes across Russia with Ukraine saying, "we didn't do it."
The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for yesterday is available on:
- Our hosting websit...
2023-03-01 11:30:53 +0000 UTC
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The Economist reported that the Russian defense company UralVagonZavod is capable of producing only 20 new tanks a month due to shortages of critical parts and labor. UralVagonZavod is refurbishing an additional 8 to 10 tanks monthly, with another defense contractor refurbishing 15 to 20. Eliminating the number of tanks Russia has visually confirmed to have captured since February 24, 2022, Russia is losing 102 tanks a month, and that number is accelerating due to the ongoing large-scale offe...
2023-02-28 23:18:57 +0000 UTC
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Black Sea Fleet has 18 vessels on patrol, including five missile carriers - 2 Kilo-class submarines and 3 frigates. There is the potential capability to launch 32 Kalibr cruise missiles.
It is now March 1 in Ukraine, officially marking the 3rd month in a row where the Black Sea Fleet launched 25ish cruise missiles in a month (December, January, February). The lower number is despite the fact that heavy attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure continued through January....
2023-02-28 22:26:05 +0000 UTC
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We've seen the reports of up to a dozen drone strikes across Russia, some as close as 95 kilometers from Moscow. Ukraine has not confirmed responsibility and Russian state media is declaring, yes there were drones, but it was no big deal.
The truth matters and we are committed to be right instead of first. The pictures and videos we've seen are showing the drones involved appear to be reconnaissance drones, although they can carry a payload of up to 20 kilograms.
We are also seein...
2023-02-28 21:30:30 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 314 and is 59 pages.
What's the big story? Bakhmut is Ukraine - for now.
The second story? If you thought that the Kremlin and PMC Wagner had found peace, you are very wrong.
The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for yesterday is available on:
Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 313 and is 52 pages.
What's the big story? Bakhmut still holds as the situation continues to deteriorate.
The second story? There was a lot of fighting from Kharkiv to the Zaporizhia-Donetsk administrative border, but almost no changes to the line of conflict.
The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast...
2023-02-27 11:25:38 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 312 and is 40 pages.
What's the big story? Russian troops did not enter Ivanivske, and there was no big attack across the H-504 Highway.
The second story? Russian artillery activity increased, but there continued to be no signs of a larger offensive, and there were no missile attacks.
The Malcontent News R...
2023-02-26 09:28:52 +0000 UTC
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Tomorrow's podcast will be a year in review. The focus will be the ten biggest failures of the Russian military from February 24, 2022, to February 23, 2023. While a similar list for Ukraine is harder to fill (there are fewer choices, but you can make a list of ten), the Russian list has many more choices.
Our picks, in what is "my order" are:
10) Drone attack on Engel-2 Airbase - while the strike only destroyed 2 aircraft and maybe damaged 1 to 3 more, the psycho...
2023-02-26 00:05:27 +0000 UTC
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Russian troops supported by PMC Wagner launched a large-scale offensive operation south of Ivanivske. They broke through Ukrainian defenses with reports of heavy fighting in the suburb of Bakhmut on the T-504 Highway.
Fighting is described as very intense.
To the north, Ukraine blew up a dam north of Krasna Hora (roughly) to slow down the Russian advance into Bakhmut itself.
We maintain that Russia will capture Bakhmut at all costs and continues to suffer a higher rati...
2023-02-25 22:43:21 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 311 and is 53 pages.
What's the big story? No big offensive, no missile attacks, no drone attacks, no fiery Kremlin speeches, no "look how good we are at war" from Moscow.
The second story? Russia's has no meaningful reserves left, combat power is slipping, and the losses or artillery, armor, and personnel are u...
2023-02-25 12:12:47 +0000 UTC
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This is Report 310 and is 59 pages.
What's the big story? At the moment, it is what didn't happen. So far - nothing significant has happened on the battlefield.
The second story? Russian forces are increasingly switching to a defensive posture in Luhansk as complaints about ammunition shortages spread.
The Malcontent New...
2023-02-24 12:22:05 +0000 UTC
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The heading speaks for itself.
2023-02-23 23:52:23 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 309 and is 56 pages.
As you read this, Russia and Ukraine have been at total war for a year. We hope that everyone can take a moment today to reflect on the enormity of the last year and the tens of thousands who have died. We don't see any off-ramp in the near future.
What's the big story? The situation f...
2023-02-23 12:29:33 +0000 UTC
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We are in debate on whether to share the picture in today's SITREP, and we caution you to be careful what you search for. Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing to escalate his war of words with the Kremlin.
About 90 minutes ago, Prigozhin released a picture that shows between 80 to 100 dead Wagner mercenaries stacked in the snow, which he claims represents one day of combat losses just on the edges of Bakhmut. The picture is shocking in the scale of death when you consider this only represent...
2023-02-22 15:57:43 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 308 and is 53 pages.
What's the big story? Ukraine continues to maintain defense lines - mostly. Russia's large-scale offensive is not living up to the hype.
The second story? The bigger moves are on the diplomatic and geopolitics front, with the world's superpowers trying to position themselves for the future a...
2023-02-22 14:33:51 +0000 UTC
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Beyond the desire to get two hours of my life back, I watched Putin's speech in real-time. I started watching on RT but became concerned I couldn't trust the translation, so I moved to the BBC. The BBC lost translation a couple of times (the team speculated the translator had to go outside and release a couple of primal screams), so I switched to Sky News. I must confess that by the 90-minute mark, I was pretty checked out.
So what did Putin say? For the first 10 to 15 minutes, everythi...
2023-02-21 20:29:49 +0000 UTC
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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment.
This is Report 307 and is 48 pages.
What's the big story? The bigger news is what didn't happen - there wasn't a lot of fighting today.
The second story? Putin's speech was a nothing burger with a side order of ice cubes (we've given up)
The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for yesterday is available on:
2023-02-21 10:32:26 +0000 UTC
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Many people on both sides of the front ask themselves, where is the big Russian offensive? There was supposed to be a big Russian offensive!
Russia has massed 300K, 350K, and even 500K troops trained not for eight days but for eight weeks. The supply and logistics issues have been worked out. The mobiks, nothing more than speed bumps in October and November, stiffened in December and started finding some...
2023-02-20 22:13:16 +0000 UTC
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