The Long Investor

$OSCR TOP 10

I hope you all enjoyed reading my write up of the Joshua Kushner interview yesterday, I intend to continue meeting with these influential founders and CEO's and will only share my interviews with these people for Patreon.

$OSCR has been weathering the market storm very well this week, nobody expects miracles from any position right now so holding support along the $13 level is something we should all be happy to see.

I have added along the $13 level a number of times now, so if yo...

$HIMS

Very strong recovery yesterday, the price had dipped below the 200 Day MA and the $25.40 level and it appeared as though an army had mobilised and bought the dip hand over fist from the moment the market opened. Price went from -15% to +13% at one stage.

Before the the market did open I shared my Buy list and their targets.

$HIMS under $25 is Buy from that list.

What we want to see now is the price holding above the $25.40 level and we are already up to $28.63 in the PM now....

Interview with Joshua Kushner

I sat down and spoke with Joshua on Thursday evening, we have been trying to get an interview together for about 2 weeks and it fell on the day that the markets started to really erupt so it was a great time to catch him for some time to pick his brain on $OSCR and the market.

First of all, I want to say that Joshua is a very interesting and capable person, we are similar in age but he dwarfs anything I have achieved, so I was very happy to hear that he has been following my account for...

$ASTS

Price has pulled back with the market and could not hold the important blue support level but has managed to hold on the outside of the descending wedge at $20 today.

The pull back has been corrective in nature which is a good sign, as a pull back in an upward trend should have 3 waves in it

The downside risk is a test of the 0.618 fib at $16 and this level must hold and keeps the price in the wedge, below this level and there is weakness

Otherwise, I only see this pull bac...

$SPY TOP 20

Bounced exactly where it needed to today at $481, just slightly above the $480 level which would have been the Contrarian invalidation level.

Price also went as high as $523 with the 'postponement' confusion and is ending the day at around -0.7%.....which I think it is a modest win considering how bad today could have been and at times was.

So the big question now is whether or not Wave B is happening

I have added $AMZN twice now, on Friday and Today, so I am planning for a ...

$BIDU

Lower low has just about been made today so the impulse wave can not be valid.

So unfortunately we are waiting for support to be found now.

The price started 2025 at $77 and is now at $80, little progress but relative to the US market it has done ok.

However, we need to see support confirm soon

The blue line can be tested again at $73 which was the low in 2022, we want to see this level hold, otherwise it can get painful for $BIDU

Fundamentals do not merit the pr...

$NU

I really like the movement here of both the impulse wave and the corrective wave and this has already been brought to your attention a few weeks ago when I confirmed this was in an ABC correction

Price has already lost the 0.5 Fib so if there is a rejection trying to get back above this level at $9.72 then we would expect a drop down to the standard 0.618 Fib at $8.21 and will be watching for a hold here.

Fundamentals are very strong here too
FWD PE of 12 and Net Margin of 19, ...

$BABA TOP 10 & TOP 20

Perfect test of the 200 WMA now at $103 today, as Trump has announced he will increase his reciprocal tariffs on the 9th, if China does not back down from their +34% counter Tariff.

Nobody is a winner with these Tariffs and something of this magnitude does not get resolved very quickly

Fighting fire with fire is also not the answer.

I am backing China here to come out on top

A hold at $103 and I will add to my position again and keep to my strategy.

US 10YR

Up +1.6% now after bouncing on the 0.78 Fib during this pull back

Trump wants this to drop down out of the triangle and start moving towards the lower amber fib support levels, where the FED will have very little choice to lower rates.

But right now the US 10 YR is just looking like a weak stock that is holding at a standard ABC pull back level and would typically expect to move to the upside next

A hold here and there can be another retest of the 200 Day MA which is at the ...

$PFE - TOP 10 - WATCHLIST -

$PFE for me right now is presenting an opportunity

It has declined since $61 in 2021 to $22 today and is exactly at the yellow support line that has been in place since 1990.

Can the price go lower than $21 and go to the 0.887 Fib at $16.60 or even the Great Financial Crash low at $11, yes it can, this cannot be ruled out.

But I believe accumulating at or below $22 is an opportunity

They have strong fundamentals, a FWD PE of 7, healthy margins and here's the real kicke...

$ETH

$ETH will certainly be part of my accumulation plans.

All positions I own below their 200 WMA will be added too

I want to maintain 10% of my total portfolio in Crypto and $ETH will be added to maintain this

We are still searching for support to be confirmed here, this chart has not changed.

$ETH hit the 2018 peak blue line today at $1411 but we need to see more to confirm that the bleeding has stopped, especially since $BTC has rejected at its 200 Day MA.

I will ...

$VIX

The $VIX got as high as 61 today, making it the 4th highest level since records began in 1990.

It has cooled down to 46 now as the market awaits the opening bell

I think many are still hopeful that something can be resolved today but Trump has spoken again in the last 20 mins and does not appear to be changing his tune.

Above 65 here and we are moving in line with what happened in March 2020 during the Covid Crash.

This needs to stay below 48 which is still high but at...

$NIO TOP 20

$NIO is below the $3.61 danger level now and a Head and Shoulders pattern has been adding to the concerns here too

Yes $NIO does not sell to the US but the issue here is that if there is a market sell off, those companies that are not profitable will struggle and people will give up on their positions and move to more reliable positions to safeguard their capital.

The downside risks are clear, there is a support line at $2.35 and the All Time Low level at $1.21.

$HIMS

$HIMS is now below the 200 Day MA and the blue line in the PM after mass selling at the opening of the PM.

There is some recovery as we wait for the market to open but still a deep sea of red. Below the blue line and the 200 Day MA is weakness and rejecting under this level and the 0.78 Fib comes into play at $17.76, a spot nobody wanted to be in, Morgan Stanley alone reiterated their PT of $60 just last month

That being said, here is my plan:

I will double my position in $H...

HSI

HSI had a large drop today of -13% which is the largest drop since 2008.

This is typically not a good signal for the US market and we are seeing the impact in the US PM now.

The trade war right now is primarily between the US and China and up until today, most of the damage was done to the US market while the HSI was holding very well.

But there are no winners in such a trade war, if Trump decided to use exact reciprocal tariffs then the market would digest this information ...

$META

The great $META is not immune from this market either and is already down to its 0.38 Fib now in the PM

Still some margin away from its 200 WMA, which shows the strength of $META over the last 2 years.

However, I do like how it aligns with its 0.618 Fib at $335

I think $SPOT and $META must be added to the Top 20 list when they also compete their ABC correction

$NVDA

$NVDA has now dipped below the $93 red line so the Wave 5 Melt Up scenario can not be valid and we are confirming the ABC correction now.

Wave A is still not confirmed to be complete so our Wave B is still a moving target until this happens but I like how the Wave B range aligns with the 50 WMA now.

$NVDA will be a company I will add aggressively at the Wave C point and it will be added to my Top 20 list....likely at the expense of $INTC.

$AMZN and $NVDA will get the vast am...

SILVER - SAFE HAVEN -

Silver has done some recovering this morning after a strong pull back last week that I admit was a little surprise to see

I did a deep dive on this over the weekend to see if there was something I was missing and what I found was a little alarming

Banks and institutions were margin called last week due to the extreme drops and they needed to sell their safe havens to cover the margin, seeing this is a concern because some banks are clearly stressed and selling Gold or Silver would...

The LIT Sunday News

U.S. Stocks Lose $5.4 Trillion in Two-Day Rout as Trump Tariffs Spark Recession Fears

Key Developments

U.S. equities lost $5.4 trillion in market value over two days following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs, sparking global recession concerns and triggering China’s retaliatory duties.

...
2025-04-06 19:58:48 +0000 UTC View Post

$SPY TOP 20

$SPY chart and $QQQ chart are very similar, we can see that both price actions are moving to the 200 WMA and in this case it is at $466, which is an -8% drop from here, whereas it is -9% on the $QQQ chart

Same commentary here as it is on the $QQQ chart, I have added in the nuclear armageddon possibility by way of the red Fib levels, which align with the GFC 2009 Low and the high of Feb this year.

This would mean it has taken 18 years to complete this cycle which is on the longer s...

$QQQ TOP 20

A lot of talk about a 1987 Black Monday style crash tomorrow.

The truth is, there is likely going to be a move down to the 200 WMA here for the $QQQ at $382 which is aligning nicely with the 0.38 Fib but having reviewed previous historical corrections this is very typical of what happened in the past and it does not need to happen all at once tomorrow.

A drop down to the 200WMA is about a -9% fall, which will be very strong but I do not see how this has to happen all at once tomo...

$V TOP 20

Last Sunday we said that $V recaptured its 50 Day MA which was certainly out of fashion with many companies in the market but we remained committed to our count as it has not stirred us wrong for 10 months now

True to form, the price dropped very strongly after losing the 50 Day MA support and looks set to test the 200 Day MA next here at $302, losing this level and the 0.38 Fib is at $29.3

We have used $V over the last 12 months to guide ua, and show us if the market sentiment is...

$TSLA TOP 20

Back below its 200 WMA and did not sell off as much as the other Mega Caps this week but this is likely down to its very strong decline since the start of Dec, due to Elon involvement with DOGE and the Trump admin.

There is weakness here and we can not rule out more downside right now, support looks delicate.....and $AMZN and $GOOG look like better assessments right now

$TSLA could just about handle the DOGE issues but global tariffs and supply chain constraints now likely, it is ...

$SHOP TOP 20

$SHOP is heavily linked to $AMZN, so if $AMZN drops then $SHOP is unlikely to go against this trend

Price we know rejected at the wedge trend line at $100 and dropped as low at $69 this week

And finished on the 200 WMA ar $76

I believe $SHOP is a solid company below its 200 WMA to accumulate and can recover and reverse next along with $AMZN's brief next.

$SHOP had not been following the market either, which is why I like it long term here at the 200 WMA

However, ...

$SE TOP 20

I don't like calling the top on charts but we called it on $SE over the last few weeks and this has worked out very well

My last few updates I advised members who held here to trim their positions as Wave A I believed was next

And Wave A came with a bang and a strong drop down to the 0.38 Fib this week

200 Day MA is moving up to this level at $104 this week, so I suspect it could hold and we get Wave B next to inbetween $124 - $129

$PYPL TOP 20

JPM late note to the market on Friday that they see a recession next for the US has summoned up the feeling towards the market and the finance sector this week

Many of these companies have been selling off as a recession will slow down the cycle of borrowing and lending.

$PYPL has not been immune from this and is back deep into the Buy Zone and consolidation phase.

In August I said one thing clearly to this group:

'I am holding $PYPL when the price was at $58 and I wil...

$NKE TOP 20 & TOP 10

$NKE along with $DIS and $INTC have all been aligning with the complete impulse and corrective cycle which originated from the GFC and started from the low in 2009.

$60 was lost this week which was the Covid low after the Vietnamese Tariff, which turned out to be the most harshest tariff on all countries.

$NKE and the US clothing companies did not need that this week

However, Vietnam has been one of the first countries to reach out to the US to make a deal

Which makes ...

$MSFT TOP 20

One thing is clear from our review this evening, the Mega Caps are moving to their 200 WMA and this has been clear and spoken about on this chart for the last 9 months.

Bizarrely there is nothing to be said here that I have not already said every week for the last 9 months either

We have called this as though we have moved the price action ourselves

The 200 WMA moving to the 0.5 Fib at $341 is becoming a clear confluence level

$INTC TOP 20

$INTC along with $DIS is also aligning with the complete impulse and corrective count cycle which originated from the GFC in 2008.

Price is still holding in the consolidation range but the trend is to the lower end of the range now and if the blue line is not held at $18.40 then then GFC low at $12 is a possibility.

This has been a tough 16 years for long term holders here.

$GOOG TOP 20

$GOOG along with $AMZN, $AAPL, $MSFT and $TSLA all look destined for their 200 WMA

Something we haven't seen since 2022

I believe Wave A could complete here at the 200 WMA at $137 if there is a flush down at the open tomorrow or early next week

Wave B I would expect next at the very least

$GOOG is also a company I would consider to play for a Wave B bounce but I will wait for the 200 WMA to be tested because I believe $GOOG is more vulnerable compared to $AMZN right no...