The Long Investor

$DIS TOP 20

I believe $DIS has really struggled here and we can see the price action is now aligning with the structure since the GFC in 2008

The low from 2009 to the high in 2021 is the large impulse wave and now we clearly have a corrective wave

With this considered, the 0.618 Fib is at $86 which was lost this week.

The Covid blue line must offer support at $78 or there can be a drop to the 0.78 Fib at $55

Another legacy company down to very low support level, along with $EL, $P...

$BTC TOP 20

$BTC appears to be holding relatively well against the US market right now but their declines from their peak are in line with each other.

It has also been less harsh and slower, as this pull back started in December which has allowed the 200 Day MA to move higher, which is why it looks like $BTC is still fighting to recapture its 200 Day MA

I do not believe it can without hitting Wave A first, at the very least to the 0.38 Fib at $73.3k

An ABC correction can bring $BTC down...

$BABA TOP 20

No surprises here from $BABA

The Buy Zone has been on this chart since Feb and the retest of the 200 WMA has always been a possibility and many were hoping the price would pull back to this range after $BABA ran fast up to $148.

So we are watching for a retest of the 200 WMA, like many of the Mega Caps this week and holding, a hold here above $104 and I will add

Very simple.

$BABA is not in the same cycle as the US market and +35% YTD.

$AMZN TOP 20

I added $AMZN on Friday for a few reasons

• I like the strong pull back so far in between the 0.38 - 0.5 Fib range, which is standard for a Wave A pull back

• I believe it is the strongest Mega Cap in the market

• The market has only given us 3 waves so far on this pull back, so there is still a possibility that this entire pull back (although very fast and harsh) could still bounce back sharply if Trump sorts out this Tariff mess quickly.

• ...

  2025-04-06 17:44:13 +0000 UTC View Post

$AMD TOP 20

$AMD has not surprised anyone lately and is still searching for support

It is one of those companies that I believe should be added to once support is found and held, with the intention to hold for long term

$HIMS, $BABA, $BIDU, $SOFI, $AMZN, $OSCR and $PYPL are part of this list too.

The 2018 trend line looks like it can be tested next at $82 if market weakness continues.

$ABNB TOP 20

$ABNB is not a buy right now on this dip.

We have a death cross and a lot of negative sentiment towards the US and travel right now.

$100 level looks very obvious for a test next so no rush in here until there is a solid support confirmed.

I believe other companies and charts will offer a better risk v reward right now....$AMZN being one of them.

$AAPL TOP 20

A lot of the Mega Caps look destined to test their 200 WMA as part of this corrective pull back and any of these companies at or below their 200 WMA is a an opportunity to me.

$AAPL hit a low of $187 this week and the 200 WMA is at $177, $GOOG and $AMZN are in similar situations

I believe it is very possible that these MA's can be tested this week, especially if the PM and market opens red tomorrow.

Like we saw on the $SPY '08 chart, the 200 WMA did test too and found suppor...

Earnings Releases for the Week

Weds has $DAL

But all eyes will be on Friday for Banks Earnings and most importantly their guidance.

$SPY TOP 20

I have just been reviewing the price action of 2007 - 2009 compared to what we are seeing this year to gauge how things may move

TWEET:

Solid white price action is the 2025 performance Superimposed over the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crash

We are starting to see some similarities already

1. Price losing the 200 Day MA and rejecting from below and making a lower low.

2. RSI's are identical too.

3. 50 Day MA is moving down to the 200 Day MA for a Death Cro...

$PLTR TOP 20

Lower low has been made today to $71, price is down -10% today and Wave C is confirmed

I would expect the pull back to continue and at least a test to the next red Fib level at the 0.5 Fib at $65.

But if this pull back continues, we can not rule out a test below the 200 Day MA to the 0.618 Fib at $51, completing the round trip many thought we would never see.

$VSCO

Managed to find support exactly on the bottom blue line at $13.76 at the exact same time that Vietnam released a statement that they were committed to reducing the tariff difference to zero and they were in discussions with the US Admin

Incredible timing.

Price has jumped +16.75 on this news now.

The pull back could be completed here and there is a double bottom once we see the start of a new impulse wave forming, so higher highs and high lows next.

Still early there ...

$SPY - CONTRARIAN VIEW -

OK I need to share this.

This is the contrarian view on the market.

The main reason I am sharing this is that we have a 3 wave pull back since the Top in Feb.

Wave A typically has 5 waves in it, but I don't see 5 waves so far, I see 3.

There is one other scenario where 3 waves is allowed and that is an WXY pull back which has 3 waves in it but it is not common, HOWEVER, it did happen in 2022.

So, a 3 wave pull back holding on the 0.38 Fib is typically found for W...

$PYPL TOP 20

$PYPL is deep in the Buy Zone and consolidation range, price also tested the blue support line that has been in place since 2023 today.

$PYPL is high on my list to add next and I have no issue taking up a DCA strategy in this zone.

I would like to see support come in which will likely encourage more buyers too but I believe $PYPL is undervalued now with a margin of safety and a fantastic company to hold for long term.

$GOOG TOP 20

$GOOG also at its 0.38 Fib today with the market and holding so far.

FED's comments were counter to Trumps views so the market will still be trying to digest this information

That being said, $AMZN has been recovering very well after extending beyond its 0.38 Fib today

So I would be watching for $GOOG to do the same here, a hold at $148 and Wave B can be next back up to the 200 Day MA at $174.

$SOFI

$SOFI could not hold the 200 Day MA and moved down with the market sell off this week but has so far been holding at the 0.65 Fib which I am happy so far is just a standard pull back

Losing this level and the blue line comes into play at $8.30 and the 0.78 Fib at $7.30.

I do not recommend touching your position in this set up but only consider adding when support is confirmed.

We did not add this at the top, we added on the pull back, I still have a number of buys to complet...

$QQQ TOP 20

Plan for the $QQQ as the $SPY approaches its 0.38 Fib

This may stop the $QQQ falling down a lot further if support comes in shortly for the $SPY.

So I am watching for the blue line at $408 and the 0.38 Fib at $389 as the potential support range for Wave A.

A fall into this range and I would expect Wave B next.

$VIX

We are above the amber caution level at 30, meaning the market is showing weakness, we are now closing in the on the 48 level which is not as common and has accounted for many strong pull backs over the last 16 years

But we have not reached the levels seen in 2008 or in 2020 just yet.....which will likely be seen in Wave C.

The speed at which the market is dropping is in line with what we are seeing in March 2020.

$ASML - TOP 10 -

Has lost the 0.618 Fib, along with many of the tech and Semi sector companies and is also looking set for a possible test of the 0.78 Fib level next at $525, unless the 0.618 Fib level can be recovered today to end the week at $651.

$NVDA is leading the sell off in this sector

I have exposure to this sector with $AMD and $NVDA, $NVDA is the only position I will be trimming once a relief bounce comes, $AMD I am sticking with.

$OSCR TOP 10

Although there was a strong show of strength yesterday, the trend through the descending wedge has not changed, so members must be again reminded that the 0.618 Fib at $10.36, which is the standard ABC pull back level is still on the cards.

The 200 WMA is just slightly above this level at $11 too which may offer assistance too

After speaking to Joshua yesterday, I will be adding to my position again but I need to see support held next to add again.

$SPY TOP 20

We are now only a few percentage away from the 0.38 Fib target, price is at $522 now and the target is $512.

This drop has been an incredibly fast and harsh, many will feel overwhelmed and that is understandable

It was this uncomfortable in March 2020 too

I expect support to come in shortly

$TLT - SAFE HAVEN - WATCHLIST -

Yields are down, bonds are up and now we have a clear break out above the 200 Day MA and once holding above this level at $92.60 and Wave 3 is confirmed for me, with a move up to the $101 level at the 1.618 Fib

And look how well the 2.618 Fib for Wave 5 aligns with our Wave C target at $110.

+3.64% dividend here

This historical safe haven is doing a great job here.

$AMD TOP 20

$AMD has relatively been performing ok but has just lost the 0.78 Fib in the PM so far and does look set to test the yellow trend line that has been in place since 2018, the price here is at $82.

The Semi sector is getting heavily hit in spite of being exempt from Tariffs but this is led by the sell off from $NVDA which we have been concerned about for some time now.

My reminder to all holders, it may not feel comfortable but we do not sell under the 200 WMA.

That being sai...

$ABNB TOP 20

$ABNB is now dropping down in 5 waves after completing Wave C at $166, the $100 target is now firmly in $ABNB sights on the 0.78 Fib

We are seeing a lot of stocks drop down to their 0.78 Fib right now

We know the 0.618 Fib is the standard pull back Fib level, so any drop below this level is certainly weakness.

We are starting to see a lot of good companies going into overvalued prices now.

I believe we will be spoilt for choice soon for options to buy when the market c...

$KO - TOP 10 - SAFE HAVEN -

$KO as a safe haven has been strong and impressure, Wave 4 held perfectly on the 0.38 Fib and has now bounced back up to the First Target again and has made a higher high now.

Holding above the First Target support level at $72 and $KO can complete its Wave 5 to the Second Target at $77.50

+2.8% Dividend too.

$NKE TOP 20

$NKE is dropping hard and the next level is the 0.78 Fib support level at $46, the blue covid low level has been lost and the weak market sentiment has taken over here.

$46 will need to hold next or $NKE is in a lot of pain.

I believe this is a company in a strong undervalued position with a considerable margin of safety at $46.

$AAPL TOP 20

Same set up as the $AMZN chart now, price is moving very quickly to the 0.5 Fib at $192 there, the 0.38 Fib got cut through very easily yesterday and now the blue support line has been lost in the PM now too.

$192 is the important level now to hold, I would be surprised if the price action drops all the way down to the 0.618 Fib before any support is held.....the good news if this happens is that the ABC pull back could be complete if the 0.618 Fib is tested and holds.

Meaning t...

$BABA - TOP 10 & TOP 20 -

China have responded with a 34% on all Imported Goods from the US now

We have a trade war.

Price is down to the $120 in the PM now which is just around the blue support line.

A strong reaction so far, so let's be open to the price dropping into the Buy Zone and a downside risk of retesting the 200 WMA which is just below the 0.618 Fib at $104.

We have not added since below $87, so another opportunity to add in the Buy Zone will be something I will take advantage of. 2025-04-04 10:36:30 +0000 UTC View Post

$AMZN TOP 20

Price is already at $168 in the PM now and moving very quickly to the 0.5 Fib at $162, this has been a very strong pull back now for one of the strongest companies in the market, as I have said before, if this can happen to $AMZN then every company that has been following the market (Mega Caps) are under threat of a strong pull back too.

This is great news for us, a test and hold of support on the $162 level will certainly encourage me to add for Wave B

A $162 average for new inve...

SILVER - TOP 10 - SAFE HAVEN -

There is a very large difference between Silver and the $SPY chart right now, the pull back here has controlled whereas the pull back for the $SPY has been fast and harsh. Silver is still up +6.5% YTD today, dwarfing the negative performance of the $SPY.

In the short term, I believe that a retest of the 200 Day MA here at $31 could offer an opportunity if the price holds, if this level is not held then I would expect the blue line to hold at $30, a hold on either level should be a clear...

$HIMS

Quick check in with our most popular position

The price action is moving very quickly to the confluence level now of the blue support line, the 200 Day MA and the 0.65 Fib between $25.40 - 27.40.

Considering the circumstances right now and more weakness again in the PM, I would be happy to see the price action stay in this confluence range until we get a market Wave B and some relief.

I will be very greedy for support confirmation now and for all positions.