The Long Investor

$SPY TOP 20

The last 24 hours have been a ride, many will want to forget about it quickly but I believe we have taken the right approach to this pull back and the vast vast majority of people have embraced it and can see the opportunity ahead of us in our group.

I can not see any other group, or chartist able to do what we have done here and we have been all over this.

The more we know, the less we fear.

The Melt Up scenario is now ruled out and and I am looking for a decline to the 0.3...

$PYPL TOP 20

As with $SOFI and a number of other popular finance stocks, $PYPL is hurting today and is in the middle of the two important Fib support levels.

We must expect a test of the 0.78 Fib at $59 before support can be confirmed and/or expect a reversal.

There is also another factor now, the 50 and 200 Day MA have crossed today too for a death cross which has likely spooked some investors.

$PYPL is now firmly in the consolidation range and could be for sometime but I will happily c...

$VSCO

Clothing companies that make their products in Asia, particularly Vietnam got murdered today and the share price was unforgiving.

All gains since the hold on the $17 level have been erased and a lower low has been made here too.

Price is now moving down to the blue support level again at $13.74.

Unfortunately this should be avoided until support is found, especially if the blue line is not held.

$BIDU

On this chart it is barely recognisable that the markets are under enormous pressure right now.

The price is just sitting on the 200 Day MA now $89.90, having flushed down to the 0.78 Fib at the opening but has held well throughout the day.

$BABA has had moments of being green today too, where the market is identifying this as a hedge against the US market, which we have known for some time.

$BIDU is still one of the best risk v reward setups rights now.

$NVDA

I think it is clear that the dominant count right now is the corrective wave happening for the Mega Caps and the US market.

$NVDA is approaching the $100 level now and the impulse wave would be under pressure and invalidated under $93

$AMZN, $GOOG and $NVDA will be my prime targets to accumulate when they have completed their ABC correction in this case.

I will be watching for a retest of the 50 WMA from below as a potential Wave B bounce here next but $NVDA's Wave B is not...

$DELL

$DELL is down -10% and moving to the .618 Fib at $76.

This would be a standard pull ABC level under normal circumstances, below this level and I believe there is weakness and that is understandable right now

So levels to watch out for next if the $76 is not held is the blue support line at $61 and the deep Fib level at $48 on the 0.78 Fib.

Once support is held, I believe the ABC correction is complete and a new impulse wave can start, very similar set up to $AMD and $AMSL. 2025-04-03 13:20:21 +0000 UTC View Post

$OSCR TOP 10

The PM is turning a darker red for the market as Americans are waking up and wondering if this was all a dream but unfortunately not.

Trumps reciprocal tariffs are incorrect and based on false pretenses and the market does not like it.

But we will take advantage of this mess by grabbing undervalued positions soon

$OSCR is still within the dimensions of the descending wedge and just slightly below the $13 level now and has not made a lower low yet.

The downside risk has...

$NKE TOP 10 & TOP 20

At what level would you be comfortable at accumulating here?

My number is $50, right in between the 0.618 Fib and $0.78 Fib, the obvious test is the $46 level but I think the entire market can see this level and anticipating it now.

The psychological level of $50 is important here

$BTI - SAFE HAVEN -

I brought this to your attention again last week because there is still more upside and has a +7.2% dividend too.

Price is showing a rare green in the PM too at +2.2% and I believe there is still a +15% upside left from this standard move back up to the top blue line at $47.

$ONON

In a very similar situation to $LULU, in that they also make their clothes in Vietnam and the share price is down -14% in the PM now.

I would expect both of these companies to put pressure on the Vietnamese government to make a deal with the US quickly or they will have no choice but to move operations.

Price is now down to the 0.618 Fib which we have been very patiently waiting for.

Failure to hold at this level and the next support is at $32.

Which is a far cry from ...

$TLT - SAFE HAVEN -

Yields are going down, Bonds are going up.

$TLT is now at its blue support/resistance line and is green today.

The 200 Day MA is just slightly higher at $92.70, a flip of this level to support and the bull case is triggered.

Wave C then comes into play too.

+3.6% Dividend too.....very nice safe haven right now.

$GOOG TOP 20

Exact same plan here as with $AMZN, approaching the 0.38 Fib at $148 now and below its blue support line, a hold on the blue line and we could see a bounce for Wave B next but certainly be greedy now for support confirmation before jumping in.....we have just seen how weak $AAPL is and it is already below its own 0.38 Fib support level.....tho $AMZN and $GOOG are not as exposed as $AAPL to tariffs in China.

$GOOG below $130 is a clear buy from me and I will accumulate.

$AAPL TOP 20

$AAPL is now looking very weak, down a whopping -7.5% in the PM now which is a colossal amount for the largest traded company in the world.

A lower low has been made and this is below the 0.38 Fib too, so there is weakness for a standard Wave A pull back and this could go as low as the 0.5 Fib at $192 before completing.

$AAPL makes a lot of its products in the China, so they will be affected by the tariffs more than most, JP Morgan have also said that Sales would be affected by -1...

$ETH

No changes to the chart here and why is that?

Because $ETH has already completed a harsh ABC correction and below its 200 WMA and wedge trend line, so it has completed a strong pull back already.

The downside risks however have not changed either, the 0.78 Fib may be needed as support at $1568.

$LULU

$LULU is taking a big hit today and it has been a very difficult week for $LULU, they guided down during their earnings release last week and now Trump has announced a high tariff on imports from Vietnam, where $LULU makes their products.

-11% in the PM on this news too.

Price is already at the amber 0.887 Fib at $248 but there is also a risk of a test of the $226 level, which is the larger 0.618 Fib and a support level from August '24.

Below $224 and there is a large drop t...

$BTC TOP 20

Still holding relatively well against the market but I do not believe this is sustainable and a rejection below the 200 Day MA is possible next and a drop to the 0.38 Fib at $73.2k is likely next and again to complete Wave A at the standard support level.

We can also see that a death cross is coming down quickly between the 50 and 200 Day MA which will add fuel onto the fire here and trigger algos and people to sell further.

$SOFI

Still has a higher low, still above the 0.5 Fib and still above the 200 Day MA.

A lot of finance positions will likely take a hit today as the market factors in an increased likelihood of a recession due to these tariffs and that will affect borrowing.

A recession slows down the engine of the economy and that is buying and selling goods, something banks need to keep doing to earn from.

If the 200 Day MA is not held here at $11 then the lower low would be the standard 0.61...

$BABA TOP 20

With potential tariffs of +54% on China, $BABA is only down -2.8% and the market realises that $BABA is very dominant in Asia and has little reliance on the US, so it is not heavily affected by these absurd tariffs.

HSI is only down -1.5% and $BIDU is down -2.3%.....all of these figures I would take as knee jerk reaction to the announcement and would not be surprised to see Chinese ADRs green today.

$BABA is at its channel bottom line now at $126.

$121 is still possible, as...

$AMZN TOP 20

We have been all over this and something I am very happy about.

A rejection under the 200 Day MA, failure to hold on the blue line and now the price is testing its lower low breakdown level now and coming very close to the 0.38 fib at $181.

This is where I expect all Wave A levels to test and hold at and this would be standard but a harsh market weakness could drop it to the next Fib level at the 0.5 Fib at $162, which is what we are seeing on the $NVO chart right now too.

S...

$QQQ TOP 20

$QQQ chart is almost identical to $SPY and the commentary, price is also testing the 31st of March low too now and we can see that the 0.236 Fib aligns with the impulse invalidation red line at $447 too, meaning we can rule out Wave 5 and the Melt Up scenario below this line, so that is clarity for us.

A drop below $447 and rejecting below this level and the blue line is next as discussed yesterday

The best case scenario next would be a retest of the the 200 Day MA and people can...

$SPY TOP 20

Yesterday we spoke about the Bull and Bear Case options depends on how aggressive Trumps announcements will be and quite clearly he went in aggressive, a total of +54% Tariffs on China is absurd.

Especially when his method of calculation has been revealed to be misleading and quite frankly bizarre.

Nevertheless, we must play the cards we are dealt.

I said the price would come down to the $550 0.236 Fib if Trump went nuclear and the price is just slightly below this level, an...

$HIMS

I am liking going to have a lot to cover today so I will prioritise charts and commentary that need it the most but it is a good start to share the $HIMS chart and observe that very little has changed here, price is just slightly below the 0.618 Fib and is still above the lows from the 31st of March

I believe many other stocks outside of the healthcare sector will struggle more today and I would expect $HIMS to stay range bound in the channel and above the blue support line and 200 Day ...

$NVO - WATCHLIST -

$NVO is not a weak company, it is a strong sector leader, with a ground breaking product and undervalued both fundamentally and technically now while being under the 200 WMA and with this Wave A falling as low as the 0.618 Fib at $66.

I believe at the very least a relief bounce will come and I would be looking at a target of $107 here for Wave B.....and it could certainly go higher too.

FWD PE is 14
Net Margin is 35%
EPS Next 5 years is +20% per year.

Watch for a hold ...

$LYFT

$LYFT is testing the 50 Day MA from below now which is just under the descending wedge breakout level at $13, so if this level can be flipped to support than the only barrier left is the 200 Day MA which is only slightly above that again at $13.40.

Therefore above this confluence at $13.40 and there is very little in the way of resistance back up to the blue line at $20.

I suggest waiting for a breakout and holding before considering a position, we must consider the delicate marke...

$QQQ TOP 20

Trump is expected to speak in the next 30 mins so all eyes will be on the market and the $QQQ too

The $SPY chart commentary is both relevant here too so if you did not get a chance to read this chart uploaded earlier too then I suggest you take a quick look before Trump speaks.

Bull Case reaction here and the 200 Day MA gets tested again at $494

Bear Case reaction and the price action makes a lower low and starts drifting down to the blue line at $408 over the next few weeks...

$VST

A lot of people were looking for this in Jan because it was moving fast and but it was in a clear Wave 5 move for us, with waves overlapping and finishing in an ending diagonal Wave 5

So we added in the ABC correction count with Fib support levels

Wave A has been strong and fell as low as the 0.5 Fib and now we have a recovery....arguably there are 3 waves in the Wave A and it did drop below the 200 Day MA and the 0.5 Fib is typically found for Wave C and not A.....so with this be...

$VSCO

Slowly showing signs that the bleeding has stopped as the price holds above the large white 0.887 Fib at $17.62 and the smaller green 0.78 Fib too.

We do have a higher low once this price continues to hold

A hold here and we start to see the beginning of a new impulse wave, with a higher high and higher low then a reversal can come here next.

Wave 3 is aligning with the 200 Day MA now at $28.

$BABA TOP 10 & TOP 10 - WITHOUT EWT

A simple Cup and Handle formation, with a breakout at $121.45

A retest of this level, the same retest we saw on the $HIMS and $PLTR charts before they went parabolic this year too and the implied move is up to $176

It must be said that this does align very well with Elliott Wave Theory too.

$PLTR TOP 20

The $PLTR weekly chart is exactly what you would expect from a price action rejecting at the Wave B level and moving down Wave C now.

The RSI and MACD painting clear pictures now of the downward trend and are not showing that support is looking likely soon here.

The 0.618 Fib and the 50 WMA are both at $51 right now, I would expect a move down to this level for Wave C.

$TEM

Another retest of the $44 level this week and so far holding and has made a higher low but there is still weakness now, a drop below the 0.618 Fib during a pull back and I always suggest you be greedy for support confirmation, so you will want to see $44 be confirmed as a double bottom and strength build up above this level before considering adding here.

Losing $44 and the next support level is $37 on the 0.887 Fib

Nancy Pelosi's 2025 YTD is -20% by the way.