~ December 2022 Mid-Month Updates ~

Well...its been a couple months since i have done this. The last 6 months have been incredibly challenging in all markets and asset.

Sit back and learn something.

To start off, i am going to warn everyone, this is going to be a very tragic and disappointing post and Ramble tonight.

The impacts of Hasbro/Wotc on magic has been incredibly massive to everyone. As 2022 comes to an end, no one could have imagined how things unfolded in magics 30th "celebration". The choices and paths that could have been chosen for magic is  mind numbing. At the end of the day, hasbro took one of the worst possible paths ever.

This has led to Stores going bankrupt and many LGS's ordering the least amount of new magic in history. This has lad to acceleration of inventory "DUMPS" on the market. Distributors are not ordering restocks after releases. This has now "created" the amazon dump also. The product has to go somewhere. 

I think the most tragic part of 2022 is the long term damage that magic has "self inflicted" on the brand. I do believe Hasbro/wizards will "PIVOT" or adjust, but i dont know when. I believe they wont have a choice.

The crazy part of whats happening is the products coming out now are very impressive and enjoyable products. Unlike previous magic "SLUMPS" majority of people love the products, but feel very "betrayed" or simply angry at hasbro/wizards.

This leads me to the MOST DIFFICULT perspective right now in magic.

These are the facts.

1. Record LOW amount of people/stores sitting on sealed product

2. Record LOW amount of confidence in any sealed product appreciating in value

3. Record LOW amount of investors hording sealed product

4. Record LOW amount of stores keeping any inventory for long term.

5. Record LOW amount of positivity in magic/youtube/social media etc...

There has only been 2 other moments in magics history i can relate this moment with.

2002 - This was the "death of magic" era due to all the "BAD" sets. Print runs were very low, but literally the entire market was bored and thought magic was dead and useless compared to the power and flavor of the 1993-1999 era. (golden era)

2011 - The CREATION of "Print to Demand" with Gatecrash / Return to Ravnica. This shocked the system and everyone said this was the END of sealed product ever being worth holding into the future.

and NOW...

2022 - Everyone has given up, the quantity of patrons intersted in magic is at an all  time low. THe amount of people buying standard sealed boxes or excited for a new magic set is at an all time low.

~ THESIS ~

My theory right now is, the products remain good and will be desirable in the future. Unlike the past, i dont think todays products will spark any "Nostalgia" or emotional connections due to how fast the release schedule is.

I have a theory that the rate of speed is so high, no one is keeping up, this is creating a "ERA" of products that is being skipped over.

EXAMPLE: The EV of products like Crimson vow / Midnight Hunt / Streets and EVEN BALDURS GATE, are still within a normal range for draft/set boxes from the 15 years ago.

When i was doing mass box openings of Gatecrash / Dragons of tarkir / Core 2012. I can tell you that 6 months post release, the EV was very simliar to todays new magic products.

The difference is....IT DOESNT FEEL GOOD TODAY. IT FELT GOOD IN THE PAST.

Magic almost has a "dirty" feel to it right now. The anxiety/disappointment is a weekly occurance in 2022.

~ CONCLUSION ~

Technically speaking, this could be one of the best moments in magic history to purchased new sealed products. There is NO COMPETITION. 

I believe i am the only person still hording sealed product in 2022.

Unlike 2002.......today in 2022...the sets are good and desirable...even if they are printing too many varients or versions.

One last comment to remember....Stocks/Bonds/Crypto/Real estate/ CCG's...EVERYTHING is down between 19%-99% from the highs in 2021.

~ MOVING ON ~

MTG - Dominaria Remastered - I believe this is going to be a very successful product. So far i have only recieved 1 distributor allocation and the Collector box supply is very low. I was allocated 600 out of the 2,400 requested. Collector and Draft boxes will be offered at release.

MTG - Phyrexia - All will be 69 - Again...putting aside emotions and the silly variants. The product looks good and i expect it to do very well. Collector and set boxes will be offered at release.

MTG - NEW PRODUCT - 2022 products were mostly very good product launches. As dumb and laughable as this sounds, i expect most of them to actually age well. But i dont expect any form of price spikes or easy money. I think we are back to a normal 5%-9% target per year for sealed product. Of course...no movement until it goes out of print.

MTG - Reseved List - I know Magic 30 really shook the system due to the lies from wizards/mark rosewater regarding reprints/CE/ICE/difference backs est....BUT the fundamentals are still in place for a long term store of value for RL / Vintage items. I expect slow and boring price movements moving forward. This will keep most people away due to no easy money to be made.

Pokemon - Incredibly powerful brand in 2022. It is a bear market and every set has held strong with a couple sets actually pushing upwards in a BEAR MARKET!! Unreal. You have to give credit to pokemon, they deserve it and have proven themselves as the king.

Metazoo - General info - Market is now stable in my opinion. No more spikes and quick tendies from all the drama and hype. A good chunk of stores/customers have dropped it and moved on. I believe the game is going to stand the test of time. I also believe people buying and collecting in 2022 truely enjoy metazoo and are actual fans. I dont see any specualtors or flippers getting anywhere near the zoo. I think this is going to build a good foundation into 2023.

Metazoo - Animated Shorts - I believe many people are curious to see what happens when metazoo expands the brand into cartoon style videos. The market has very high hopes on this reaching more people. Until i see the quality and details, i am skeptical on this type of content. It is very very difficult to get done properly, especially when expectations are this high.

Metazoo - Seance - This launch proved that a tight print run and making tough decisions in a bad market can stabilize and put the brand back on track. The print run reduction and improved quality fo the foils and detailed artwork really helped seance have a great launch. 

Metazoo Seance Mapping - Many patrons have asked why i never made a video on this topic. The answer is simple, i have been  through many "mapping" situations with pokemon and magic. The short answer is, it doesnt matter long term. In magic, Eldritch moon went through a mapping problem with the mythics and everyone freaked out. In 2022, no one cares and eldrith moon is highly desirable. In Pokemon Sun/Moon era, mapping became a problem with people dumping loose packs and stores opening the "HIT" packs. No one cares in 2022 and the prices skyrocketed on Sun/moon.

Metazoo - Kickstarter / 1st ed Cryptid - The original sealed zoo boxes are becoming very rare. The amount of kickstarter sealed boxes and even the 1st edition base Cryptid nation is very low. Print runs on these items were stupid low. The long term price on these items will be directly reflected in the success of metazoo in the coming years.

Flesh and Blood - General - Dynasty was the most stable and smooth FaB launch i have seen to date. Product arrived safely, shipped on time. Market has a perfect amount of supply. No dramatic price increases, and no price collapses. Stores are happy and selling singles. The overall feedback from FaB patrons / customers / LGS's is very positive.

Flesh and Blood - WTR/ARC/CRU - The original 3 sets have dropped significantly from the market highs 18 months ago. At this point in time, all flippers/short term sellers investors are long gone. I think todays prices are most likely under valued as the price crash is probably over shot to the down side. These originanl 1st ed sets will be the benchmark of FaB sealed in the future.

Flesh and Blood - MON/TOA/EVE - This block of sets will go down as the 2021 era when FaB was overprinted due to a hot economy and invalid datapoints. It is nice to see Mon 1st has stablized but i dont expect any price increaes on these items until we move another 1-2 years into the future and Fab continues to prove itself. At that point in time, i think newer players and collector/investors will reflect back on these older products and want to have exposure to them. 

Flesh and Blood 2.0 - Well...it works and is currently rebuilding the brand and supply/demand cycle. Simliar to magic, i dont expect any price increases on sealed product until the item goes out of print and the system is flushed out. (18 months post OOP)

Force of Will - I will always love this CCG, but i skipped the last set with patrons since i literally could not get any boxes. I have confirmed that i am gettign 120 boxes of the next set. Be aware that many of the older FoW boxes are getting very difficult to find sealed.

Weiss Schwarz - The brand continues to perform very well with most releases. The company has slowed down the release schedule from the peak during the summer of 2022. I remain very positive about the future of weiss and sealed product.

Weiss Schwarz - Spikes in Sealed Boxes - To my surprise many sets already off the lows and moving up in price for the last 3 months. I expect this to continue and catch many people by surprise moving into 2023. 

~ Side Projects ~

Flesh and Blood - GEMKEEPER - GEAR PIECE 1 - Coming in Q1 of 2023 the very first cold foiled exclusive piece of gear will be released for the Ruudi Gemkeeper Card. I dont have the final cost of the art/manufactoring/shipping costs from LSS/Carta Mundi at this time. I know its pricey per card due to the small batch size.

The gemkeeper patrons will have a discount applied. I dont know how James/LSS wants the card sold or packaged with. I believe something simple like $199-$299 for the exclusive card + playmat + extra promo would be good, but i dont know what the plan is yet. I expect a tidal wave of hate from the public and other social media platforms. Should be fun.

~ Summary of 2022 ~

This was probably the toughest year i have ever seen in the CCG world in modern times. The industry has gone through some dark eras and difficult years, but this 2022 was a special one.

In 1994 Greenday released the song BasketCase during the holidays.

I rode in the back of a stationwagon to a card store and would run inside to buy 1 pack of The Dark or Fallen empires. for $1.99. It was all my family could afford.

I used to listen to this song while being young and confused.

I dont think anything has changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnQ8N1KacJc

I will never forget this year, many people, families, businesses, did not survive this year.

Thanks for supporing the youtube channel and my cardboard journey.

I am honored you choose to continue forward with me into 2023.

Always be respectful, even to the people who hate you.

-Rudy 🐈