~ August 2022 Mid-Month Updates ~

It is that time of the month again....the largest post of the month!

I recommend reading this article while listening to the cat.

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Lets start with the basics, the CCG world has continued to show a "calm". Most products are not eroding in price anymore. Magic/poke/FaB/Zoo/Weiss are all showing good signs of trending sideways also known as "consolidation"

I am seeing many magic sets like Hunt Draft boxes + AFR Draft boxes continue to recover and push upwards. 

It feels like the market is starting to slowly reprice and adjust to wizards price increase.

Kamigawa SET Boxes/Cases - Will be added to the patron list for September

Magic The Gathering - 2021/2022 Sealed product - In the 7 years i have been on youtube and discussing sealed product, i can say with confidence during this moment in time, VERY FEW PEOPLE are hoarding sealed products anymore. I remain incredibly bullish on all these cheap sealed boxes. When this market cycle ends and the 2023-2024 arrives, its going to be a wild time to reflect on.

Magic The Gathering - Reserved List - Many small groups and collectors have been nibbling at old cards and attempting buyouts. While i respect the hustle, i dont expect any major moves until economic conditions shift on a larger scale. BUT...this is the perfect time, people should be slowely buying on a monthly basis the old cards they have always wanted. The market will turn hard and it will come out of no where.

Magic The Gathering - Dominaria United - I expect this to be the most successful standard set in a very long time. The demand appears to be the highest in years for a standard mtg release. The collector boxes remain the biggest unknown due to Textured and 1994 Legend cards.

Magic The Gathering - Brothers War - Honestly, im nervous on this release. I simply do NOT see how wizards can top Dominaria United. I am very cautious on brothers war at this time.

Magic The Gathering - UNFINITY - This is the wild card of the year. The fact the cards are black bordered and and playable is weird. In addition, the space shocklands and stickers are going to make this a volatile product. No comment at this time, since we dont have enough data.

Magic The Gathering - Double Masters - I remain very bullish on the Draft and Collectors for this item. It is the 1st set to introduce textured cards. In addition, It is the product line with the highest probability of spiking in price within a 2 year time period, with very limited downside. Simply put....everyone loves this item.

Pokemon - Lost Origins - This item will be offered to the patrons at release. I have been putting in a lot of work to increase my allocation of pokemon booster boxes. I believe i should be able to pull in over 2,000 boxes for the first time in years on this product line form all sources. And remember, anytime a pokemon BOOSTER box is under $100....its a great entry point for long term collecting. No exceptions.

Weiss Scharz - SEALED MARKET - This market has been wrecked over the last 9 months during the crash. I have seen almost every store i am aware of that carries weiss, dump every single sealed box and is holding nothing. Similar to mtg, i expect this is going to lay the foundation for a fantastic market in 2023-2024. I continue to build and hold positions in all Weiss booster boxes. 

Force of Will - A New World Emerges - The USA market for this product line is really rough. It is almost impossible to get this product. Overseas, FoW is doing well and continues to sell good in Japan. The USA market is extremely tight and shallow. Box prices are starting to spike up on many sealed boxes through FoW's history. 

This item will be on one of the sales coming up within 7 days. I have very little.

Flesh and Blood - Uprising - Im going to be honest about it....Uprising is doing very well. The tight supply and print run restrictions in place are working. I dont expect uprising to collapse in price. I also dont expect to see anyone holding massive positions that can cause a "Surprise" dump in the future. Wave 1 + 2 have both fully hit the market. Single cards are selling nicely. Expected value is stable. Looks good. Very happy to see this.

Flesh and Blood - General Market - Overall, sealed boxes and cold foils in FaB history continue to erode in value without any firm data of a turn around.

Fab's 2nd block (Mon/ToA/EvE) appear to be "toxic assets" according to many LGS's i have spoken with and have dumped everything and want nothing on the books.

I personally believe this to be an emotional over-reaction. 

The Market has accepted that this era of FaB is simpy overprinted and will take an MANY YEARS to move through the system, with multiple setbacks of product dumps if any uptick happens.

Similar to Magic the Gatheirng, 1993/1994 is priceless.....1995 is a disaster of overprinting...then print runs were tightened hard in 1996-1999 for market realignment. I expect the exact same path for Fab at this time.

I believe FaB is experiencing MOST growth OUTSIDE the USA. I believe the USA market has stalled entirely based on LGS/Distributor feedback.

My guess is 

USA FaB = (-10%) contraction

International FaB Growth +10-20%

Flesh and Blood - Conclusion - I believe FaB will stand the test of time. They have released 7 sets. At the end of the day every single set has been overall successul. MESSY/SLOPPY....but successful. 

Metazoo - General Market - The #1 complaint and problem is Wilderness/UFO was overprinted. I get messages on it everyday from LGS's and patrons. 100k print run was too high, and now Metazoo is going to pay the price/penalty for the loose management with eroding consumer confidence and fearful LGS's who want to dump everything off the books.

Metazoo - MY PREDICTIONS - Mike has made it clear he has cut Seance print run down by 50% and dropped it back to 50k boxes which is the same as Nightfall. I believe this is a massive game changer. I believe we will see 25% of LGS's drop metazoo after the market drop on the last 2 sets. I believe Seance will be incredibly successful and will catch the market by surprise. I believe Metazoo will expand its "BRANDING FOOTPRINT" and start publishing short films/cartoons/videos etc...within the next 12 months. 

Metazoo - Impressive choices - An impressive direction has been the company taking any excess boxes from wilderness/UFO and breaking them down and using them for big box stores like Walmart. This is a fantastic way to move and shift the supply of sealed boxes. I continue to believe creative directions like this will allow metazoo to navigate the markets and survive long term. I wouldnt bet against it.

Alpha Investments 6.9 Year Anniv Kit -  Videos are going to start revealing the item in September. I believe i will have a couple videos explaining each category and history of the items within.

EXPECTED LAUNCH SALE FOR THE PATRONS IS END OF SEPTEMBER

The quantity of kits has been reduced from 3,000 to 2,000. I have taken the extra cards/promos and increased them in the 2,000 units for a better and more consistent experience.

Price point is around $599-$699.

Quantity limit is undecided but leaning towards choice of 1-4 boxes per patron.

I really hope everyone enjoys them and a lot of people film the openings on youtube.

I have put a year and almost a million dollars into this project.

Summary - Hate towards me - I have also noticed a reduction in the last 30 days have threats and "hit piece" youtube videos and private emails sent to me from angry people in the world. This is also usually a good sign that markets are calming. I believe the quantity of threats has dropped about 40% compared to the panic of June 2022.

SUMMARY - General - I feel a lot better now then i did 3 months ago when i saw the stock market / inflation / CCG market all falling apart in a bad way.

I believe most people will still feel negative about the economy and the future moving forward. 

I expect interest rates to continue to rise and stock markets to be jittery and full of fear. I also expect the stock market will GRIND HIGHER in the face of the world ending.

I believe Real estate prices will be negative for the 1st time in years and will continue to erode lower, but nothing extreme. This is normal for fast moving interest rate environments. The evil investors who were buying all the houses to rent have backed off. The cost of borrowing has spiked and things have cooled.

Mortgage and lending standards remain tough/tight...people dont have mortgages in there dogs name and strippers are not flipping condos in Florida like in 2008. 

The world will be fine. This is not an environment of systematic risk of collapse.

Just like Last month, I stated the WEALTH DESTRUCTION has been incredible in all asset classes.

The problem with most markets in modern times, is you can only confirm a top or bottom when its in the past. Historically 90% of all investors/collectors never make money. So always remember, MOST PEOPLE ARE WRONG. 

Life is NOT about being perfect and getting predictions 100%. Ask any professional money manager and they will all tell you, it is about being right more than being wrong.

Thank you for supporting me.

Its NOT going to zero.

Stay the Course.

Never give up.

-Rudy ~ (August 2022)

Leave the Cat alone

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