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~ September 2021 Mid-Month Update ~

Welcome back to the most important post of the month!

Sit back, relax, and think.


General info - Market as a whole, remains "soft" prices are not dropping in any CCG at this time. BUT, nothing is appreciating in value. I consider this to be very good, and an excellent sign of strength for the next cycle in 2022. I expect the "boring" flat growth to continue to feed out all the short term flippers and continue to stabilize all CCG's as we return to normal.

MTG - Innistrad - Midnight + Crimson items - Market is very "calm" towards these new products. I believe they are actually well designed and look like a lot of fun and well engineered. I dont believe the lack of hype is due to the fault of the set, but too many products within mtg fighting each other. I like set.

MTG - Modern Horizons 2 - This will be 2021's best product. Currently trying to secure 3,000 boxe of MH2 SET boxes to finally offer some to the patrons at a good price. Fingers crossed.

MTG - Sealed Products - Nothing is currently going up in value. After the crazy increases of 2020 and early 2021. The market has cooled and calmed down. This is a "boring" period and this is the time to be building positions slowely over the next couple months.

MTG - Reserved List - For the first time ever, during the cooloff period, RL cards are NOT declining in value. Buylist pricing is completly flat and boring. Again, this is the best time to start building positions to prepare for the next cycle in 2022+

MTG - Kaldheim Draft Boxes - I have made the decision to NOT RESTOCK Kaldheim Draft Boxes. Literally none of the patrons are buying them and i am going to run out the current pallet out and remove it from the monthly list. It is not worth it for me to order another 3,000 boxes and tie up the money for a long period of time on a product with no demand.

MTG - 2022 - I am extremly bullish for 2022-2023 for Magic the Gathering. I feel magic across the board is going to have a very good future from the current place we are in. I am more positive on mtg now than i have been in a long time.

Pokemon - Battle Styles / Chilling Reign - I dont expect any decent size reprint or restock on these items at all moving forward. I have been trying to get any position i can in these sealed boxes. I am like boxes. Long term outlook is very positive on these type of products.

Pokemon - Evolving Skies - Use caution, 2 more waves on coming over the next couple months. Prices will level out and i expect a price retracement from the crazy high prices of today.

Pokemon 25th Anniversary - This is an asbolute mess. Everyones allocations are so low, its pathetic, i have no plans on running any sales on these items due to lack of supply.

Pokemon Fusion Strike - Due to printing errors/problems, this set is being short printed and will be another disaster. I would reco locking in cheaper prices today with a STORE YOU TRUST. Most online sellers will end up canceling orders. I was told to expect a 70% supply reduction.

Metazoo - NightFall - This is going to be a massive promotion with a new Rudy card to add to the series. A new halloween evil 666 playmat. Playmat and Rudy card alone cost me around $20k, so i hope everyone likes it....lol Promotional kit is still on target for end of October.

Metazoo - Market Conditions - I have become a lot more confident in the Metazoo brand after learning about the owner and listening to the feedback of the market. Overall the community and public love the product. Do not let the negativity trick you. If half the ideas and plans become reality, this brand has huge potential in many markets and brand deals.

Metazoo - Sealed prices - box and card prices will move with the overall health of the game and player base. If the game continues to boom through Nightfall into 2022, todays prices will seem like a steal in 24 months. It is 100% dependent on how the game is managed and how the market is going to accept it moving forward.

~~~~~~~~ Other CCG's ~~~~~~~~

D-Spirits - In discussions

Akora - In discussions

Genesis - No plans to carry the product

Digimon - No plans to carry the product

Dragon Ball Super - No plans to carry the product

Final Fantasy - No plans to carry the product


Flesh and Blood - General Info - Market is very calm and quiet. The extreme hype is over with and prices are stable. The next 12 months is going to be the biggest indicator of the health for long term. After the "honeymoon" phase ends and things became stable, this is when most CCG's fail. This normally happens 1-2 years post launch. I would NOT bet against Legend Story Studios. I think they will stand the test of time.

Flesh and Blood - Monarch 1st ed - I have spent a tremendous amount of time researching and tracking these sealed boxes. At this point in time, i am going to guess a print run size of 75,000 boxes based on market movements and quantity sitting for sale. I beleive the print run is double the size of Crucible 1st edition. If i am wrong and the print run is 100k+ boxes, prices will drop further. If i am wrong and the print run is under 75k boxes, you will see a massive market shift on the news drop. Mon to $1k and im staying the course....feel free to laugh at me. I have more patience than anyone.

Flesh and Blood - Unlimited Boxes - The insane bear market on unlimited product is one of the most fascinating stories in booster boxes, i have ever seen. It is as if....NO ONE believes they will ever stop printing unlimited boxes. People are going to be in for a wild ride in 2022.

Flesh and Blood - 1st ed investors - WTR/ARC/CRU represent incredible opportunities if this game continues to shake the systm. Todays prices are the high end sealed boxes is very attractive. I am adding to positions.

Flesh and Blood - Tales of Aria - The fear of a crash is causing every store to unload every box as quick as possible. I cant wait to open some boxes and experience the set. 

Flesh and Blood - Tales of Aria PROMO KIT - I am confident the small and large kit options will be a smoother and better sale for everyone. More info will come this week, but the important notes are the promo card and the playmat are 100% exclusive this time around. I am in possession of the entire print run. These will not be shared with armory kits or other special events. I feel  the playmat is stunning. I feel the promo card is not that exciting as previous promo cards. 

Flesh and Blood - 2 year Anniversary - In October, assuming the specialty packaging arrives in time from manufactoring. I am going to run the most controversial, very expensive, rare and symbolic, drama-inducing FaB event ever. If you want something special and unique, this is for you. If you want an expensive piece of FAB history, this is for you. It is designed to be very expensive, and discourage purchasing that will cause uncertainty and regrets. The anger will flow and it will be a  beautiful thing. I am in possession of the entire print run from 2018/2019. It has been in my vault since i decided to take a chance and believe in LSS.

LSS001 - P - August 2019 Alpha 1st Print. Extended Art. No foiling. No Border Treatment.

I have enough for 16.9% of the patrons.

I expect only 6.9% to actually buy at the sky high price.

I expect Regrets from the other 69%.


Weiss - Boxes - Many patrons keep requesting additional sales on these items. It is challenging for me to run these sales, since i order so many cases, it takes me additinal time to take delivery which can be 1-3 months from release date. I feel it has been easier for me to run a sale with a new box and an older box together to average out the prices. I am still very bullish on this game and the brands/partnerships they offer. I like the game.

Force of Will - Incredible box price appreciation in tons of sealed boxes. Remember almost all of these sets in the last 3 years have been offered at some point for $80-$100 a box. Seriously CLICK HERE AND LOOK unreal price movements, that continues to go un-noticed by the market.


Conclusion - Simliar to last month, this is a great time in history to be part of the cardboard world of collecting. I expect technology and the media to continue to bring attention to cards. I do see a future that becomes more accepting to portfolios containing Stocks/Bonds/Real estate/Commodities/Crypto/NFT's/Collectibles/etc...

I also believe we are entering an era simliar to 1995. On the backs of success with Metazoo and Flesh and blood, i expect to see TONS OF NEW CCG's entering the market trying to ride the wave.

Use extreme caution, simliar to the 1990's most of these start-up card games will fail. I believe metazoo and FaB will be the exception. I think we could see 1 more thrive and grow but most are going to zero. Without proper distribution with the big 5 distributors in the USA and some of the influencers and whales online, i dont believe traction and sustainability is possible for most startups. The FOMO is at an all time high and people dont want to miss out right now.

I expect to see continue fear and anger driven by the media/Politics on all sides. I highly encourage individuals to walk away from all of it. None of it helps, and i feel it is all designed to get people to pick sides and dislike the rest. You will  regret living your life involved with topics you cant control.

No matter what happens, i believe are in a golden decade right now that started with 2020.

Simliar to the 1990's with the birth of the internet and innovation it brought, i expect to see huge growth and wealth created in the cardboard world in the coming years.


The market got it wrong.

Most people around you are wrong.

The market has always been wrong.

By the time the proof shows up, it is too late. 

Comments

Excellent analysis.

Me too bro, I ordered a case last week, surprised to see it off Rudy’s list, all good though

Hey Rudy, did you see that ikoria commander is already at 195 on Amazon? the price on that product keeps picking up speed.

wintoch

I think it's because the owner reprints cards. Can't remember if it was a video or a patreon update, but I remember hearing something about their original alpha and beta cards being printed again in the new boxes.

When does the sale start today?

Oh God please no D-Spirits Rudy. That game is already red flag city and looks so childish.

Can I ask why you’re passing on Genesis?

Larry Johnson

So is this special sale for FaB gonna be only one card? Or will it included boxes or something else?

5000 minimum

I would like to know, what in Rudy's standard can be called "expensive". How much should I prepare for that Octobar FaB stuff? Hope crypto go nuts, it would help.

Maciej Graszek

Can’t wait to find out what the 2nd anniversary promo is. Hopefully I’m fast enough to grab one.

Jason Antokal

He has had set boxes for the monthly sale before. Although they were by the case.

S. Wang

“I am like boxes”. Are we an empty box or a full box and if we are full what are we full of?

BrewCrew75

Gotta be santa rudy.

Stanislaw Kansiewicz

Yeah, I need to know how much dry powder to set aside.

Stanislaw Kansiewicz

I just like the cards

Ozzy B.

Nightfall to the moon

Midnight Hunt is just eh, few good cards on the high end, just a tad more than AFR. But still not an overall awesome set. There is also the Standard 2022 problem of the dual lands just being near the crap tier. At-least Midnight hunt is a slight upgrade over the crappy snarls.

Sign me up for the FAB 2nd anniversary kit Rudy!

Sorcery tcg will also be great once they figure out logistics

So are ya gonna stock up for fusion strike? I trust your store

Wonder if Monarch 1st ed print run is closer to 90k+ boxes (2.5x CRU 1st ed) if LSS was feeling particularly bullish in the months leading up to Jan. 2021 print date? I do think the game will stand the test of time.

"It is 100% dependent on how the game is managed and how the market is going to accept it moving forward." Now that Mike has turned the game into a marketing ploy, I'm backing out slowly, probably going to skip the next couple sets and start selling 20-30% of my 1st edition position, then wait and see if he starts pulling it together before unloading the rest, but personally I'm not impressed with the attitude or effort. I'm only recording videos to validate my collection at this point.

scififanman

Broke: Waking up and reading the news. Woke: Waking up and reading Rudy's Market update.

Hi Rudy, long time listener, first time Patron. Just curious, now that the Set booster boxes will have the same shape/size as draft booster boxes, will you be carrying them for sale to patrons? I understand the "upright" presentation is a pain in the a$$ :)

I secured 14 boxes of akora

Paul Tufis

Hey Rudy what time is the Innistrad Collector Boxes sale today? Is it still 6PM PST/9PM PST?

S. Wang

Great post thanks!

James Duran

Wow. Rudy purchased every single LSS001 Promo card. The only LSS promo not listed on the FaB website. Its not going to be tournament legal, and I couldn't see it being anymore than Go Bananas which is the only other Lss marked promo

Joel McAlister

Late night taco updates are always welcome around here.

The Soapbox Lord

I will buy MH2 as long as it is offered.

Matthew James

Giggity

Michael Martin

Oh man Rudy you got me excited for that promo. I must know what it is! My precioussssss

Gold

Bro... You'll always be my 001- P. ;)

John Bolender

I just scored a Rudy Promo and Playmat!! And Thank you for the Wisdom my Friend!

I'm excited to hear about the Flesh and Blood October offer!

2016 rudy pouring his heart out to us. Wish I woulda not been broke back then.

Travis Stine

Future proves past. Battle Styles!!

Jakestaz

👀 Well, late night Kaldhiem order it is then...

Grey Shirt Guy

These market updates are worth more than the price of admission alone. Snagging cheap draft boxes and the occasional sale are just icing on the cake. You da man Rudy!

Randy

Thanks Rudy

matteo gallo

Bullish on Kaldheim over here. Glad I just picked up some boxes. Will probably do the same next month if still available, and I haven't blown it all on MH2 😂

https://fabtcg.com/collectors-centre/promos-and-extras/

Robert Sutphin

Does anyone know if by “Akoria” he meant “Akora?” I ask because I recently backed Akora’s Kickstarter campaign (3 booster boxes, 2 decks, and 2 promo cards) and that’s a good sign if Rudy is in talks. Good time to be alive!

Aaron Ostergaard

Late night Taco Bell run I see.

Scott Harries

Mon to 1K. Let’s goo!!!

Jason Rost

Excited to see what partnership you will have with D-Spirits :)

Gingerbread, opt, curious pair I like the stock

No unlimited, each iteration of a set will be a edition. The next set of cryptid nation will be 2nd edition.

Lets friggin gooo!!

Steven

It seems I’ll have to do extra hours at work. Shit.

William Arce

Now I can go to bed

Joseph Everett

When he says he is in possession of the entire print run what exactly is he talking about?

Probably forgot to post this before today's video ;^) Got the video first then the post. Looks like we got it wrong. Ruby keeping us on our toes.

Alex Melo

Wow, how expensive is the FaB l Print run buyout i wonder... sooo expensive it'll cause anger? We talking $10k+? Oh dear... https://fabtcg.com/collectors-centre/promos-and-extras/ This is gonna be crazy. Interesting how LSS has also kept the info hidden.

Robert Sutphin

Do we have word on a metazoo unlimited run?

This was a nice bedtime story read. Thanks Rudy!

You son of a bitch, I’m in.

I don't always post but when I do it's the middle of the night -Rudy

Matthew Gibson

My muhhhfuggin g

look at rudy being sneaky and dropping some knowledge on us late at night I love living on the west coast

How much longer will I be able to purchase Kaldheim draft boxes?

Ozzy B.

Cardboard doesn't have a bed time!

Andrew Schulz

Rudy my guy, dropping this at 1:26 AM EST... God's work

That’s what I was thinking 🤔 lol

Erod

Up late tonight :) Get some rest for the upcoming FaB release ;)

Robert Sutphin

Go to sleep

michael j


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