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December 2020 - Mid Month Updates

The infamous, most shared Rudy post on the internet is here!


Lets start the discussion!


The overall collectible world continues to be on fire. All CCG's are performing very well. I expect moving into 2021 we will have additional goernment money printing and additional inflation that will be felt with rising equity prices, rising Real estate, and higher collectible/crypto prices across the board. 

MTG Economy - While Standard sets continue to have low EV on draft booster boxes. The money is still flowing into Collector boxes and set boxes at a faster pace. Myself/dsitributors and other store owners have all noticed a reduction in overall draft box purchasing due to the superior Collector/Set boxes in mtg. So this makes the draft boxes look "weaker" due to diluted secondary market pricing from flashier products. I expect this to continue and possible get worse as wizards seems to prefer set/collector boxes. The rumors continue that wizards wants to phase out draft boxes in 12-24 months. 

MTG Commander Legends - Supply is essentially at zero. This will keep secondary market card prices stable and push some prices back up in the short term. I expect waves of restock to start in Jan 2021. And i expect by Feb 2021, Draft boxes will be readily available and thats when we will see the true prices of the single cards. I personally believe wotc will inject a lot of supply of collectors/draft boxes into the market in the next 60 days. There is no way they will leave millions of dollars in revenue on the table. This set is still a strong buy long term and will age very well. I do NOT believe the cards within the set will age well though, i think most singles within this sete will erode and drop far more than everyone believes. Anything that stays expensive will get reprinted in secret lairs or future master products.


MTG Zendikar Rising - This is an intersting story right now. Wizards took so long to get Set and Collector boxes to market, the hype cooled off and the prices fell and leveled out. Distributors wanting to free up cash flow and revenue going into the end of the tax year are very aggressivly trying to wipe out inventory. This is causing short term downward pressure on the set/collector boxes. I am a big fan of these items and the Zen Rising set as a whole. I believe expected value of the singles will remain patheticly low. I believe the sealed box prices will climb 18 months after being out of print. So its going to take a lot of time and pateince on todays products, but they are still worth it.

MTG Thero / M21 / Ikoria - All of these standard sets are getting very little love and attention. I believe if ikoria was released in 2017 it would be one of the best selling sets of all time. In fact all standard sets right now are GOOD PRODUCTS. The market is rough and the world is negative. Yes standard is broken and cards are banned. But these are NOT long term variables that will matter in 5 years. These are all products part of the flashy era of 2020+ and fewer people than ever believe in sealed product. I am staying the course and holding the fort.

MTG Throne of Eldraine - This is a special set, and my personal favorite. It is the next to go fully out of print. It is the FIRST set to ever have collector boxes and they are the lowest printed. This is Lowryn 2.0 in my mind. I am holding a substantial position in sealed collector packs. The draft boxes are good, but the collector boxes on this particular product are special.

MTG Reserved List -  The biggest surprise for the public is the lack of price drops and retracement after the spikes in the summer of 2020. I still firmly believe this is due to lack of online store inventory. The "Diamond hand" investors/collectors/players who made major moves in 2020 have permanently changed the landscape. I see very little downside in the RL right now. Even at these prices, they are the rarest and most historical cards in the hisotry of MTG. They are the cornerstone of the industry.

MTG Modern / Pauper / Tiny Leaders / Pioneer - Straight up dead. Secondary market prices on these singles are annihilated due to secret lair, record low confidence due to reprints and "the list" in all set boxes moving forward. Love the sealed boxes, hate the singles.

MTG Magic Community / MagicFests - Straight up dead, gameover, i hope you enjoyed your stay. Wizards learned they can have record revenue and no major events. The world has evolved and paper magic is booming due to kitchen table and EDH. By the way, Flesh and blood is in discussion with channel fireball and others to take over large events.

Pokemon - Pure fire and massive booming market in old and new product. I expect this to cool off and stabilize, but i dont see much of a "price crash" happening. The old stuff is simply so rare in sealed box form, prices will hold with normal fluctuation. Single vintage pokemon cards raw and graded are the scariest asset class right now. I feel most people do not comprehend the size of the base set singles floating around. 


Force of Will - The game continues to make new product. To my surpise the sealed boxes on all the newer booster boxes are extremly strong. Some patrons have been holding on to sealed boxes of each set and most sets have actually appreciated in value more than 2020 MTG sets. Its a very interesting story due to the tight print runs...no reprints ever and limited supply.


Flesh and Blood - MARKET - Ok i know this is a very hot topic now. Most people are focused on the high 1st edition box prices. Many people are locking in profits and have sold way to early and are now regretting that decision. This game is getting a lot of attention in the last 90 days. The growth is extremly aggressive and the demand is beyond expectations of everyone involved at LSS. If Monarch delivers a great product, todays prices will be cheap. If the items coming at the end of 2021 not including the regular sets are a success, the game will shatter records.


Flesh and Blood - Supply - All 5 major distirbutors in the US are wanting to work with LSS and offer Flesh and Blood. It is up to LSS to make those decisions. Currently FaB is distributed using 2 of the main distributors in the country.


Flesh and Blood - Crucible of War 1st edition - I am trying to figure out how to handle this in a fair and calm manor. I am in the process of recieving my last batch of 1st edition CRU cases. After filling some backorders and replacement/damage orders i have some leftover but not enough to sell another 800 promotinal kits. So at this time i can only make about 100 more kits and i dont have a fair system to determine who gets the kit due to the high secondary market prices. So as of right now, i am leaning towards making the kits but only putting 1 box in each kit vs. the original 3 boxes so i can make a larger quantity and spread it to more people. Although some people will still be upset since the price is the same. It is a strange situation where every direction will have upset people. This is all due to my last pallet being delayed due to customs and slow covid frieght ship times. 


Flesh and Blood - discussion - After having a conference call with James/LSS and discussing many things regarding 2021/2022. I informed them, i am staying with them and going to continue to discuss and cover the market news of the game. I was shocked when i was informed of the experience these guys have. I was not aware they had experience in distribution/carta mundi printing/ and even worked with wotc/hasbro in dsitributing mtg releated products in the past. I feel this is the real deal and i have been involved since the begining and will continue to work with them directly. Based on the information disclosed to me regarding 2021/2022, the world is in for some major treats.


Flesh and Blood - CRU unlimited - I am going to end this on a note that is going to shake the market some. I confirmed with James White that NO CRUCIBLE OF WAR UNLIMITED is being printed. So i hate to be the bearer of bad news, but 1st edition CRU is long gone worldwide. He has instructed Carta Mundi to be all in and focused on the printing and quality of monarch. While monarch has a larger printing, in my opinion, the 1st edition will sell out within 30 days and there will not be additional waves since production will be back to normal. Monarch unlmited should be 30-60 days later to keep the market fullfilled. And yes...we have an epic Exlucive Rudy promo package ready to go for the release of Monarch.


Flesh and Blood - Arcane Unlimited - Janurary of 2021 i will have the Rudy Variety kit of Arcane unlmited, simliar to the WTR unlmited kit offered 2 weeks ago. Unfortaently, there will be no CRU unlmited since it doesnt exist. Hopefully in the future LSS will go back and do an unlimited printing of CRU.


Argent Saga - I have started talking with Altar Realty Games about Argent saga again, and am considering working with them regarding a variety kit below market. Not sure if this will actually happen.


Final Fantasy TCG - Totally screwed this up. I should have stayed with the game and kept carrying the sealed boxes.


Current Negotiations 

- Still working on absorbing mtg pre-release kits for an upcoming special on a variety kit. 

- Open talks with 1 distributor regarding a ton of Zen set boxes to get a better price

- I still throw an offer out once a month regarding a TON of Dragon Ball Super product that is crashing in price that one distributor has in a warehouse. You never know. No luck so far.

- Looking at a huge supply of leftover Zendikar Holiday Gift boxes from LGS's that went bankrupt. Throne holiday boxes have tripled in price. So this is intersting.

- Working on increasing my supply of Weiss booster boxes for all upcoming sets. This is one of the topics never discussed anywhere. But sealed boxes of weiss have incredible returns. This was brought to my attention by other patrons. Seriosuly, look at TCGPLAYER on sealed weiss boxes that are 2-3 years old...mind blowing

- 1 Distributor appears to be hording VIP double master packs, but wants a higher price of $90 a pack. But i think they are sitting on pallets.



Conclusion - This is the last update of 2020. I personally believe 2021 is going to remain volatile. The economy, the politics, the culture war/divide will continue to be messy. I believe individuals who can look past the "noise" in the world will disocver tremendous opportunity in jobs and investments. The world has changed more than any other time in recent memory. The flow of money has evolved. The world is not going to end, the reserved list will not change, and the average person will not have the depth and critical thinking to notice the opportunities. The economy is not bad, BUT the economy has "moved". Business has shifted and the flow of money is tough for the average worker to see in real life. Regular jobs are dieing and specialty jobs are thriving. This continues to create a huge divide between people getting "richer" and normal workers getting left behind in a digital era. I feel this remains the #1 problem in addition to inflation.



Thank you to everyone reading this message for staying with me in 2020

Stay the Course.

-Rudy

Comments

LSS probably wouldn't be too happy with that lol

seems to have fallen in price some. would be nice if they at least fell back under 300. i would like to get some more boxes.

michael j

crucible going for 400+ now if i was rudy id just keep them to many peeps will rage quit again if they don't get one.

JAMES YAMAMURA

Now this is a great idea.

Galloway Morris

You must’ve read my comment above lol

Eric D

Anybody else excited to see what a lack of unlimited printing does for the price of crucible in the future?

Actually Rudy addresses that in one of his recent videos in YouTube. basically unlimited boxes sealed will have no value for investors unless there is a cutoff point. LSS has to be very careful about printing unlimited into oblivion as it will seriously tank the market for both singles and box values. It's a very fine line. Rudy is kind of warning LSS doesn't go overboard.

Philip Chiu

Hey Rudy, how about a lottery system for the FaB CRU boxes for those that haven't purchased any FaB in the past? Take however many people who are interested, throw all their names in a pool and roll magic dice and pick the 80 that were rolled :-) They have 24 hours to pay. If they don't pay within that time, roll more dice for the next batch

Philip Chiu

up to 500 on ebay. crazy

michael j

300+

You will be selling a single crucible of war booster for how much?

I think that was a very fair thing to decide. The crazy price jump definitely justifies just one box per kit. Even the promo card is selling for a crazy amount everywhere! I just want to thank Rudy for getting me out of a rut with bad investments and I’ll always stay the course now. Looking forward to the next batch! Hopefully I won’t miss it.

Michael Berlin

<3 you Rudy! Thank you!

I am curious with WOTC leaning more and ore on the collectors boxes and thinking of phasing out the booster boxes what that will do to the value of pre collectors box booster boxes. I haven't bought booster boxes in quite a while, I think the last was around Ravnica. So I am curious if that will put a bit of a increase in value of the pre collector booster boxes.

The sales of these boxes are down because Wizards isn't allowing paper magic to happen in LGS stores! As soon as they allow sanctioned events to happen again it will open the floodgates and draft boxes will resume being the most opened because players like myself will be ready to draft over and over again until our hands fall off.

Josh Hall

It seems stupid to phase out draft boxes. Those boxes are a game in and of itself. Drafting is fun. But i understand if the numbers aren’t good enough for them to continue

Matt Vanselow

Great update but we need time to see if the collectors packs unopened turn into pringles.

Matt Vanselow

Personally I have been saving the collectors packs but just buying the choicer singles that I want for my private collection. Perhaps one day I will sell the packs but as for my own collection..... it will have to be ripped from my cold dead hands.

Oh man that'll be a treat to try and get that holiday kit. I missed out on the 3 box kit, everything is sorted out and ready to go now.

Awesome update. Im honestly shocked that LSS is not planning on CRU getting an unlimited run. It does make sense with the pressure thats on monarch. The game is awesome everyone. Ive been playing with everyone I can since Oct, and its great to see the explosion FAB has been able to have. Truly if production lines can stabilize after the release of monarch I feel the whole world will be in for a real treat in 2021.

Lots of good info in here. 2021 about to be wild for Flesh and Blood and about everything it seems.

Great update as always Rudy, thanks a ton, stay the course

Michael

Love the update

Christopher

I think that's a great idea!

Phillip Graham

What if the Patreon’s who didn’t get a shot last time and were still interested in getting some this time, like myself, could have our names through into a lottery random application on the computer to decide who gets them. Rudy could message those people privately so there isn’t backlash

Eric D

Who wants to go halfsies with me to get Rudy Grammarly for Christmas? 🤣

I bought a box of CRU on a whim for 140$ and within a few days they were selling at 500$. Thats a massive leap in prices

Eric D

Do you think that the lack of a Crucible of War unlimited print will keep the limited first print at a higher premium or make it go down because it’s the only print, up until news of an unlimited print becomes available?

Eric D

appreciate the write up Rudy. Have a happy holidays!

I do hope wizards does not phase out draft boosters. In the environment of current times with no in person drafting the sales are bound to be depressed. But if they remove them... You can't draft with set boosters because of list cards not being standard legal (wizards take has been any set card is still only legal in whatever format it is legal for and inclusion in the standard set booster does not make it standard legal unless already standard legal).

Joseph Cassata

Very cool! Rudy I know you are probably swamped but I sent a message almost a week ago looking for Xmas present <3 hopefully time left

Great update Rudy! I’m really glad I found you and your channel. Your views on magic are great and refreshing. I do miss your cursing and shit talking but eh what can you do. I’m really glad you introduced us to the flesh and blood card game and gave us a chance to buy it from you. I’m almost tempted to sell it and just recoup all the money I spent on magic alone this year! Just like others have already said if you have to make it one box per kit but charge the same so be it. You’re gonna upset people whether you do or don’t. I hate to say it but it might just be best to not even sell it that way you don’t have those angry dudes wanted to pitch fork your ass lolz. We accept it when you just say you don’t have enough to sell to us since you’ve done this before with other magic products if we really want it we’ll pay for it just like anything else.

Gold

Rudy, what’s your thoughts on WTR unlimited boxes?

Rudy, great post and I look forward to following some of your advise. With the news about FaB unfortunately you will upset patrons either way you go with this. I don’t think there is a “fair” way to select the people who will get lucky enough to get one of these kits! I know I will be in for whatever competition game of chance or whatever you come up with, and I will continue to be a patron either way.

I'm a newer patron and have been looking forward to some kind of Rudy Monarch bundle. I like the idea of smaller bundles at higher prices given recent swings for the chance to get in on CRU.

Kyle Sponheim (Base Set Collectibles)

Whats our 2021 theme?

Matthew Dykman

Rudy thank you so much for these posts on FaB! I contacted basically every LGS that had FaB listed online to see whether they were getting allocated a second shipment of Crucible this week (as per the last update from LSS)/how big the shipment would be. Sounds like there’s barely any product coming in at all. With prices the way they are, $259 for a one box promo kit seems more than reasonable. I know we’re 4 months away, but I’d definitely be interested in any knowledge you come across on the print run for monarch 1st edition. Sounds like with all the distributors clamoring for the product, LSS could make the money printer go brrr pretty easily.

Wow, and I almost listed 1 of my CRU boxes today on eBay.. so it’s out of print already? I gotta think it’s only gonna go higher in price. So glad I bought all 4 variety kits last time =]

Will Bradshaw

Does that mean crucible is going to be hard to obtain from now on? What about that second printing of boxes?

I actually feel like a 'shareholder' in Alpha Investments. A Community. Thank you Rudy. NOW...MORE REPORTS...PROJECTIONS...AND TACOS! TODAY MISTER! (jk) Great work Rudy...'Stay the course'.

Craig C. Britt

yes sir, coming in a couple weeks :-)

Rudy The Magic Guy

yea i agree. Trust me, i neveer saw this coming. In addition, i have recieved 300+ messages of patrons regretting not buying all the kits since the begining due to the massive profits and growth of the game. But no one can predict the future.

Rudy The Magic Guy

any thoughts on the digimon card game?

lol yea i spend all night making this 1 post each month.

Rudy The Magic Guy

Until the game proves itself in the usa, i will not be getting involved, i dont trust Bandai

Rudy The Magic Guy

yea....i asked if this was intentional...i was told no. It is due to scheduling and demand for monarch. BUT like i said, they do reserve the right to go back and print Unlimited CRU in 2021. But it is not currently scheduled

Rudy The Magic Guy

im not sure yet, the entire thing is very surreal with FaB. I thought the game would grow slowely over a 2-3 year period before seeing any price increases. I was way wrong on that

Rudy The Magic Guy

There is no evidence of wotc phasing out draft boxes, but this is my theory based on actions they are doing and quantities being printed.

Rudy The Magic Guy

Thanks for the feedback Jeffrey, im still trying to figure it out right now. Im still in shock everyday on whats happening with FaB prices and the growth of the game. I never saw this coming.

Rudy The Magic Guy

wow...thats incredible

Rudy The Magic Guy

sorry probably not, im pretty booked solid with all the products coming already

Rudy The Magic Guy

Thanks for the feedback, yea im trying to figure out how to handle it properly

Rudy The Magic Guy

I am interested in crucible as well as arcane unlimited. Are you planning to do an arcane unlimited set similar to the welcome to rathe done recently?

Jerry Ogren

i want some at thoes prices lol

michael j

Stay the course Rudy. I appreciate these updates and everything you do!

Rudy, maybe you could add a standard booster box of magic the gathering (random box of your choosing) to the crucible of war 1st edition kits if they are only going to include one FAB box now? Would at least give us an extra product to help make up for not getting 3 FAB boxes since we’d be paying the same price.

I just bought x3 crucible of war for 129.99, 159.99, and 189.99 respectively. If Rudy says there is no unlimited reprint I can't open any of them 😭 so glad I got them now though, to the moon my friends, to the moon

Aaron Paolozzi

As always Rudy, love the mid month updates. Added to my position again this month.

Brenton L Drake

Cur boxes are at 400 and going up on ebay so 259 for a single box right now is a steal.

michael j

I wasn't here for the initial sale of WTR, but I really messed up by not getting any Crucible of War kits. Hell I still could have gotten some boxes earlier this month for around $120. Now that box is over $400. Just insane, and hard to anticipate something like that.

Tyler McCoy

As a recent patreon subscriber who has never touched a magic card in their life, very informative post. Happy with what FaB stuff I’ve gotten so far. 👍🏻

Erod

Rudy and I have some great conversations. He has never steered me wrong. Granted it is not expected that he would be right 100% of the time. He has a tremendous amount of knowledge and if you stick with his advice, you will make out more times than not.

BrewCrew75

Thanks Rudy

Daniel Culpepper

Major doubt on phasing out on draft boxes, they build sets (and useless commons) for the draft experience. If anything the set boxes would be the ones to go because they cannot be drafted along with oversupply from Zendikar Rising

Rudy, you and I have some great back and forth(s) of information. Great update and it answered many of my recent questions that are pending. One thing I don't understand is you said a kit for CRU would be the same price with 1 box vs. the original 3 boxes. Did you mean the same price per box or the same price per kit. Because the same price per kit would not make any sense. $259.99 for an alpha print box, a play mat, and a promo card?

BrewCrew75

Stay the Course 2021!!!!

Jamison Magnuson

WHEN WILL YOU SELL THE AUTOGRAPHED TORTILLA PLAYMATS?

DuGiOh

Wonder the price ceiling on those WTR alpha boxes

GhostUnit

Now I look on ebay and prices all ready went up from when he posted this lol

michael j

Who types these? If you direct message Rudy or just watch his videos you can tell English was not his strong suit. But these middle of the month reports are usually flawless. ;)

JimmyTheSaint

Any thoughts on carrying the digimon card game? It has 4 sets in japan and soon to release set 1 in America in January after a successful pre release in December.

PKKite

Wow, this is an extremely in depth conversation. Love it! I appreciate you putting this out, Rudy!

Jim Volin

I agree with the whole Pokémon singles thing.. and I’ve been trying to tell people the same thing.. but for whatever reason, the Pokémon community really doesn’t seem to give af about supply and demand. It’s actually very interesting and I honestly hope more people than just me are studying the market for Pokémon long term.

I would definitely love a box of CRU. I can’t believe there’s no unlimited printing! 😳

Steven Vander Hoek

Wait a minute. Did I hear you right when you said Crucible of War is "NOT" going to be reprinted into an unlimited run, meaning the 1st print Alpha boxes are all they are going to print on this set?!

Joel McAlister

I think it’s not really worth it to sell the late pallet to us. Just keep it :p. I think in the end that is smarter and people won’t be upset to get 1 box for the previous price of three. Hahahaha 🧐

I don’t like being in the rumor mill but this is the first I’m seeing of wotc phasing out draft boxes? I understand that the collector and set packs are exciting and have some new inherent value, but how does that change draft nights? Is it going to be crazy expensive? Set boosters weren’t that much more expensive, but as someone who drafts a lot it would add up over time. I am curious to see what wizards offers as a solution. For me an ideal pack would be if a Zen set booster and a regular draft pack met in the middle somewhere.

im a weiss investor and people have completely missed the opportunity in it. it holds value like other games but some sets completely sell out and with no reprint goes to unexpected price levels. the biggest comment i see from new players is where do i find some of the old set boosters? answer: you cant find them.

Awesome updates Rudy. I would love if you did the CRU FaB boxes as a promotion to long term patreon accounts (1 year+) as kind-of a thank you for continued support. Limited amounts ofcourse. And because those accounts are staying the course and not just jumping in to benefit off you having a hot product. Just a thought.

Mr. Batsquatch

Good talk. Thanks Rudy!

This info is essentially 100% why I pay $15/month with maybe a purchase every other month. Great info Rudy.

Robert Goldthorpe

Thanks! As always, keep up the good work Rudy. I’m in school and the money I made off the the sealed 1st edition WtR payed for my EMT course. If not for your YouTube channel, I wouldn’t have known about FaB. Hope you have a happy holidays.

STAY THE COURSE! WOOOHOOOO

Geoff Toohey

You think youll start to carry the final fantasy tcg in 2021?

As someone who missed on on Crucible FaB, I would look forward to getting just one booster box.

Scott Pysher


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