Will You Be Drafted in 2022?

Would the US ever reinstate the draft, and how would that even work? It’s an interesting question: technically, yes they can. In the US, if you’re a male between the ages of 18 and 25 you’re legally required to register with the Selective Service System which is a “draft list” that has been continually updated since 1940. In fact, failing to register is a felony punishable by up to years in prison or a $250,000 fine. (Although in reality, nobody’s been prosecuted since 1986.)

We’ve used the draft in six major conflicts: the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, World War I, World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. But towards the end of the Vietnam War President Richard Nixon let the draft authorization expire, and transitioned the US military towards an all-volunteer force, while simultaneously increasing military pay to attract new recruits, and spending money on TV advertising for the armed forces.

Today there are approximately 2 million active and reserve volunteer personnel in the US military, compared to 16 million that served in World War II. So, what happens if we’re facing World War 3, and 2 million soldiers isn’t enough? Well, since 1973, even through large-scale, multi-year military disasters like in Afghanistan and Iraq, we haven’t come close to any serious consideration of a draft.

In fact, because the draft authorization officially expired in ‘73, it would take an act of Congress to reinstate it, at which point a National Draft Lottery would determine the order you’re drafted in based on your birthday. The highest priority would be young men turning 20 the year of the draft — so if you were born in 2002, you’re up first. The next priority order runs from 21 to 26, and then they go back down to draftees who are 18 and 19 as their last priority.

The lottery would literally be run with numbered balls in a big bubble and publicly televised, just like Powerball. Once your number has been drawn, you’re sent to a local Military Entrance Processing Station to evaluate if you’re physically and mentally able to serve in the armed forces, and at that point you’re either accepted, and sent to your assignment, or rejected and sent home.

This whole process is required to happen from start to finish within 193 days of a draft authorization.

So, that’s how it works, but how likely is it to actually happen? Well if the problem is that we need more American troops, reinstating the draft might not solve that problem. 2017 study by the Pentagon showed that 71% of Americans between the ages of 17 and 24 were ineligible to serve, for various disqualifying factors like being out of shape or having a medical condition. 

Moreover, one of the biggest reasons the draft was ended in the 70s was because conscripted soldiers were totally demoralized. America lost the Vietnam War in no small part due to that war’s extreme unpopularity among both service members and civilians, and today 3 out of 4 Americans don’t want the US to play a major role in the Ukraine conflict. Also, for the record, the US isn’t committed to fighting Russia at all, but of course, history shows that could change.

The truth is, it would be unthinkable for Congress or any president to reinstate the draft. In reality, the practical implications of a draft make it so unlikely to pass that it would take an unprecedented event like Mexico and Canada simultaneously invading the US, for it to be worth the political capital, social unrest, and potential collapse and demoralization of the Armed Forces.

In short, no you’re not getting drafted. We hope.